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161  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for July on: July 02, 2022, 10:19:30 PM
80% of the internet thinks BTC will go down, therefore it will go up...

BTC == honeybadger
162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin hit 100k or more in 2022? on: July 01, 2022, 10:07:37 PM
This is not excluded from obtaining at all if we compare it with the periods when the price rose to the highest levels. The last time it jumped from $20,000 to $60,000, it took less than two months for the price to double. And since there are only a few months left until the end of 2022, this is also possible.
On the other hand, most expectations point to the continuation of the recession over the next few months at least, due to the Russian war and the decline in the indicators of most of the world's economies.

Although I'm not 100% certain, I think BTC will hit a new ATH this year...

I am 100% certain that will not happen

Maths and science have confirmed you are wrong...  Tongue
163  Economy / Speculation / Re: What make people panic sell? on: July 01, 2022, 10:06:15 PM
Too much leverage
164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 02:58:33 PM




El Salvador finna get rekt soon. They keep buying the dip but it keeps dipping  Cheesy

How long can they stay afloat before they will be forced to liquidate?

How would they get forced? They aren't traders on leverage. They are investors.
The only ones getting REKT ate the ones believing in fiat...
165  Economy / Speculation / Re: How do we spot the crypto bottom? on: June 30, 2022, 08:13:55 PM
You will never buy the bottom but chances are you will be very happy you bought at this price within 12 months
166  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anyone bought Bitcoin/altcoins already? on: June 30, 2022, 08:12:31 PM
Yes who doesn't want to buy the bottom  Cool
167  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2022, 03:12:24 PM
We broke $21k... it was a nice few seconds  Cry
168  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2022, 02:50:50 PM
2. You don't understand the difference between crypto and Bitcoin.

Why don't you explain it to me genius.

Bitcoin is Crypto but crypto isn't Bitcoin.
Crypto is an asset class for a whole variety of assets from NFTs to DAOs...

Hope this clears things up for you...

Mark Cuban, is that you? Lol.

Truly, you have a dizzying intellect. I'm so much more enlightened about "crypto" now.

No I'm not that poor  Wink

You're welcome !  Smiley
169  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2022, 02:44:58 PM
2. You don't understand the difference between crypto and Bitcoin.

Why don't you explain it to me genius.

Bitcoin is Crypto but crypto isn't Bitcoin.
Crypto is an asset class for a whole variety of assets from NFTs to DAOs...

Hope this clears things up for you...
170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2022, 02:34:15 PM
Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

I heard Celsius is talking to banks and can probably defend their position now.
Liquidated positions for BTC and ETH are steadily dropping so everything is calming down.

I have seen several posts from Simon Dixon (on twanker) talking about "helping them".  Evidently he, and a group of investors he seems to guide have a lot of fingers in that pie.

It's interesting.  Because from *MY* vantage point Celsius is the kind of company that is doing wrong by Bitcoin... maybe some of their products are legit... but they SEEM like the sort of company that is doing all kinds of shenannagains via selling paper bitcoin, and offering leverage products.  I dunno.  Maybe they are just collateralized loans? which is not SO bad... but I do not know.


Also I have always felt Dixon was respectable... but this sort of thing makes him take a dent too in my humble opinion.

The Old fiat system's bread and butter was loaning out the same thing more than once... and people have not looked at Bitcoin hard enough to realize why that is a SUPER-TERRA-BAD idea.  It works when what you are dealing with is DEBT... but Bitcoin is NOT debt, it is actual value.

Anyway... it just seems to me these setups are just a recipe for disaster.  Even people investing great sums in bitcoin businesses either just don't understand bitcoin, or are willing to take risks to basically rip people off.

I think crypto investors/users/exchanges should demand insight and proof of collateral positions held by coins.
Exchanges should only list coins they can prove to be solvent IMO.

But yes this bear market has done good to get rid of the worst setups...

So let me get this straight:

1. Satoshi created Bitcoin as a response and rejection to all the fiat scammery and fuckery going on in the trad finance market

2. A centralized, pre-mined, over-leveraged, fractional reserve Ponzi shitcoin/de-fi ecosystem gets created around Bitcoin called "crypto", embodying all the same scammery and fuckery of the trad finance market

3. People who claim to understand what Satoshi created are inexplicably defending the Ponzi shitcoin/de-fi ecosystem with phrases like "maybe some are legit" or "maybe they are ok" or "just collateralized loans, so not that bad" or "may bring some good to the world".  

Really ?? REALLY??

There is ZERO defence to the "crypto" fuckery scam ecosystem. Zero. It's the same shit being created in the fiat trad finance world all over again.

1. True and this will remain

2. You don't understand the difference between crypto and Bitcoin.

3. With that type of reasoning every company is a Ponzi scheme.

It's not the same shit because the printer can't go brrrrrrrrr

171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is the day on: June 20, 2022, 01:28:51 PM
100k will be here sooner than you think....

Do you have some reliable information or do you feel that it could happen soon? Cheesy

People understand the word "soon" differently, so for some it will be in a couple of weeks or months, and for some maybe a few years. If you tell an average investor who has no knowledge or patience that he will have to wait 2-3 years for Bitcoin to reach $100k, he will probably be disappointed and will not think that now is the right time to invest. Unfortunately, most only want a quick profit, so they will play the wrong card again at the wrong time and fall into the trap again.

8 years of watching Bitcoin charts

After every bottom an ATH is created after about 200 days.
The ATH tends to be a multiple of the last ATH. This means that 100k should arrive in 100 days or so.

Bitcoin is currently oversold and undervalued.

Other than that there is a big chance institutional money will enter the game if the SEC approves the ETF.

172  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC back at 20K. Imagine who sold at 17.7K. on: June 20, 2022, 11:08:05 AM
Fear, greed, hope, wishful thinking are the emotions that create money and are the same emotions that lead to losing money.
If these emotions and feelings control you, you will most likely lose in the medium and long term. the best solution is to build a trading strategy that takes advantage of market fluctuations without achieving losses at least.

I don't know, but I don't see a logical reason for someone to sell in the previous days except:

  • Shorting: trying to sell now assuming that the price will continue to go down and buy later.
  • Needs that money badly at the present time or for an emergency circumstance.

If I were a whale I'd go short on margin.
Put in a low buy order.
Then sell coins to bring the price down to the buy order.
Close the short to earn coins.
Watch the liquidations fill the buy order and buy back to higher than the coins you started with.

Have no idea if this would work...
173  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC back at 20K. Imagine who sold at 17.7K. on: June 20, 2022, 09:21:20 AM
Some people are simply born weak. I'm confused why some people are in panic when Bitcoin fell to $20,000 as if it's their first time experiencing a bear season. But even to those who are first timers in the market, haven't they seen the overall Bitcoin chart? I'm really confused. Haven't they seen the price history of Bitcoin? Even to first timers, they should have heard for once that the price of Bitcoin has always been following bullish and bearish cycles.

Sometimes I can't sympathize with weak people. This is rude but sometimes I can only say in silence to those people who sold at $18,000 and regretted when the price quickly went back to $20,000, "good for you!"

Yup I know people that refuse to invest $100 in Bitcoin but do switch from internet provider for a $5 difference even if it costs them hours by swapping out hardware etc.

Bitcoin has taught me that working is a shitty way of making money.
174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is the day on: June 20, 2022, 08:00:20 AM
If you look at logarithmic models then this was expected to happen after the next halving.
Many expect this drop since the price failed to break the resistance and its happening now. This might be the complete cycle of Bitcoin and after this, we can expect it to slowly rise again. $100k for this year are even more impossible to achieve, but in long term we can get there. Maybe in the next halving, BTC can have another high run to achieve new ATH. Invest patiently right now and don’t expect that much for BTC, bear is still in the market.

100k will be here sooner than you think....
175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Was $17.5K the low? on: June 20, 2022, 07:48:36 AM
I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.
But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.



There are 19935 craptos on CoinMarketCap
176  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC back at 20K. Imagine who sold at 17.7K. on: June 20, 2022, 06:39:37 AM
I think someone "got sold" after some whale-play  Grin
177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why Bitcoin price is falling? on: June 20, 2022, 06:34:08 AM
How long this bear market can last? I see that inflation probably affects the market significantly but does it make the most impact on this decline? I doubt. Or maybe I fear to believe since I don't see an improvement in the situation shortly. I'm doom scrolling feeds like this and I can't picture the whole situation. I've always thought that the market has more potential for growth since it's recognized as an alternative to conventional finance systems. I believed the falling of one will contribute to the growth of another. Not a thing.

You are new here.
Hold tight we are nearly through this storm.

In my opinion the bottom is in. You will see a slow climb in the next months and then make new ATH in about 200 days.

This is my expectation but it's Bitcoin so be prepared to wait 4 years for good profits...
178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2022, 06:24:36 AM
When gold prices (in dollars) soared from 70s stagflation, then crashed, was it smart to sell the top?  OK, how do you know what the top is?

In gold’s extreme, extended bear market, after it started crashing, was it smart to sell at $800?  $700?  $600?  Selling for $600 and later re-buying for $300, you could have doubled your gold holding.

...$500?  $300?  $260?  Whoops!  Selling for ~$260 (IIRC*) would have been mindrusting gold.

Holding gold is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less gold than you have already accumulated.

Holding BTC is always safe, if your biggest concern is not to be stuck with less BTC than you have right now.


*  Numbers here are tossed off the top of my head to make a point.  If someone corrects any errors as Jay corrected my recollection of when Slaying the Bearwhale occurred, then... eh.  Here, at least, it will not change my point.

So you are saying investors should only accumulate gold or BTC to increase their portfolio? If you do not extract some profits from your gains and reinvest them in that same assets or something else then you are not an investor. You are more like a collector. Professional investors always circulate their money in the different asset classes. If you do not know what the bottom or upper limits are then follow the market sentiments.

If you think of yourself as an investor you must keep track of the market about what's going on. Many people think a bear market is a downside of our economy but wise investors knows this is their opportunity. You can get things with a high discount price in a bear market so buy when everyone is selling and start selling when everyone is buying. This is that simple if you do not know about price actions charts or fundamental analysis.

Semantic game, No True Scotsman, and an absurdity:  What you mean is that I am not a trader.  You are repudiating the whole concept of “buy and hold”.  (Also, you implicitly figure PnL in dollars—not in real money, i.e. BTC.  For my part, I sometimes spend BTC on investments to make more BTC.  Figuring PnL in a depreciating, perpetually devaluing currency is extremely stupid.)

You say “collector” as if there were something wrong with that.  It is funny, because I have called myself a “collector” in my own thoughts about investment strategies.  My explicit goal is to collect and to accumulate valuable things, and to keep them.

In stocks, would you call Warren Buffet “not an investor”?  Buffet is a damnfool about Bitcoin; he should stick to what he knows, and he does know stocks!  He is the most famous (and only most famous) investor who takes the extreme buy-and-hold approach to stocks.

I call the extreme buy-and-hold approach to investing:  If you buy something good, the best time to sell is never.  Selling is an admission that you made a bad call when you bought—either you bought too much of something that’s not good enough (so, reduce your exposure to it), or you bought something bad (get out! run away!).  It happens.  Nobody makes the right call on 100% of investment decisions.

Of course, it is not the only good approach.  But in my opinion, it is the only good approach that >99% of people can achieve.


I can see you agree with me here. The basic rules of investment are circulating your wealth to make more assets. It doesn't matter whether you are converting your BTC in fiat or not. The primary approach here is to increase your wealth. This is the main goal of investment and every successful investor do. The market goes ups and downs which gives investors the opportunity to increase their wealth. It is not a straight lineup. If you are not circulating your assets to buy other assets then you are just ignoring the basic rules of investment. I think nobody has unlimited money so that they can only buy and hold.

Do you know how warren buffet like investors makes a hell lot of money? They buy small stocks or real estate when the market is declining and sell it when it's strong. The rule is this simple. Then they buy bigger stock or real estate. They start small and increase that same money through investment. They are billionaires not because they only keep buying stock and hold it. No one has an unlimited bucket of money. They are billionaires because they know how to reinvest.

If your intention is not to sell ever then it is not your wealth. We do not have unlimited lifetimes.

Not completely true

Investing can be done to preserve wealth from inflation. Creating more wealth is a higher goal.

Waren Buffett is rich because he only invests and hardly ever sells. He is an investor not a trader nor a speculator.
He does value investing which means he figures out what a company is worth and if the price to book ratio is favorable he invests in it. He only gets out of a company if it's stock value is higher than what the company is worth. By investing a lot he gets a seat on the board and can help the company increase in value.

Bitcoin is "rat poison squared" because he doesn't have the tools to evaluate it's true value...

My 2cts
179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2022, 10:06:17 PM
Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

I heard Celsius is talking to banks and can probably defend their position now.
Liquidated positions for BTC and ETH are steadily dropping so everything is calming down.

I have seen several posts from Simon Dixon (on twanker) talking about "helping them".  Evidently he, and a group of investors he seems to guide have a lot of fingers in that pie.

It's interesting.  Because from *MY* vantage point Celsius is the kind of company that is doing wrong by Bitcoin... maybe some of their products are legit... but they SEEM like the sort of company that is doing all kinds of shenannagains via selling paper bitcoin, and offering leverage products.  I dunno.  Maybe they are just collateralized loans? which is not SO bad... but I do not know.

Also I have always felt Dixon was respectable... but this sort of thing makes him take a dent too in my humble opinion.

The Old fiat system's bread and butter was loaning out the same thing more than once... and people have not looked at Bitcoin hard enough to realize why that is a SUPER-TERRA-BAD idea.  It works when what you are dealing with is DEBT... but Bitcoin is NOT debt, it is actual value.

Anyway... it just seems to me these setups are just a recipe for disaster.  Even people investing great sums in bitcoin businesses either just don't understand bitcoin, or are willing to take risks to basically rip people off.

I think crypto investors/users/exchanges should demand insight and proof of collateral positions held by coins.
Exchanges should only list coins they can prove to be solvent IMO.

But yes this bear market has done good to get rid of the worst setups...
180  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2022, 07:40:27 PM
Seems like the big boys are having trouble liquidating Celsius the way they want to. You can see all the middle of the night high volume dumps where someone was attempting to manipulate the markets downward. A lot of talk that it’s exchanges trying to force their own customers to be liquidated. This market’s goal seems to be to liquidate every single long and short until all the leveraged traders are wiped out.

I heard Celsius is talking to banks and can probably defend their position now.
Liquidated positions for BTC and ETH are steadily dropping so everything is calming down.
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