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I agree... Bit-Instant and Bit-Pay are two players that truly put their actions where their mouth is. You have to admire people who actually do what they set out to do, no?
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Market Last Volume (24h) Bid Ask High Low
mtgoxUSD 6.2513 42,762.84 6.25 6.29 6.45 6.10
thUSD 6.2781 3,135.08 6.29 6.34 6.45 6.11
virwoxSLL 1649.5000 1,393.00 1505.10 1648.40 1693.00 1500.00
mtgoxEUR 4.9406 1,329.47 4.93 4.94 5.04 4.85
intrsngGBP 4.1204 1,218.36 4.12 4.20 4.21 4.07
btcexUSD 5.8700 881.24 5.87 6.20 6.40 5.38
intrsngEUR 4.7501 796.61 4.76 5.00 5.00 4.74
cryptoxUSD 6.3900 700.53 5.06 6.39 10000000.00 5.04
lol
I knew BTC would be worth a lot some day :-) |
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Essentially, nothing has changed since January 5, there have been no new net dollars coming in. I see no reason to be anything but neutral in the short-mid term. But if you are long term bullish it is a great time to buy on the dips.
do you measure net dollars based on the mtgox order book? I keep it simple, just daily OBV. Hmmm... to quote the evil Rummie: there are known knowns, there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. I doubt any of us, even chod, knows the unknown unknowns :-) |
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The one thing we don't know is when someone will decide to meelba the market.
"Meelba" is henceforth a verb.  I propose "meelbated" :-) |
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Just a thought for cascasius maybe... how about a batch of coins with the phrase Verus Mutator, which in English means: Real has Changed :-)
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Not to attack any of the posters above, but all this is bullshit.
The reason I'm commenting here on not on the other 1000 speculation threads is just because I have a lot of respect for DeathAndTaxes, casascius and others.
But
Nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict the future. Especially short term, and especially Bitcoin.
Like 99% of the people here, I think I'm smarter than the market. I think Bitcoin's ultimate value is > $100,000, while the market values them at less than $7. So I buy, and I hold.
Any utility that Bitcoin might have right now is completely irrelevant.
My analysis suggests that in thirty years (made up number), 1% of the world (another made up number) will be Bitcoin. This simple statement is enough for me wanting to grab as many coins as I can, while not risking my well being, financial safety, etc...
Short term, it's open season, and chaos is king. Any fool with lots of $ or lots of BTC can move the market. These bubbles and crashes will keep on happening, and each one will smooth things out, take some BTC out and distribute it further.
And slowly but surely, (I believe) BTC value will rise.
No point at all speculating on short term movements. At least with any degree of seriousness.
Any one of us is really not better than the average in predicting short term movements.
The only reason I think I am smarter than the market regarding the long term 30 years price of BTC, is because I am a part of a select group of people, that have the luck to:
- Understand cryptography at a basic level
- Understand security at a basic level
- Understand economy at a basic level
- Have heard about Bitcoin, and had the luck to have a good couple of weeks to study it.
So, I am more knowledgeable than the average citizen of earth, and therefore I think I am right and they are wrong.
But short term speculators aren't betting that "Joe Shmoe, who has never heard of Bitcoin" is wrong. They're betting that other Bitcoin fanatics are wrong. Well, half of these speculators are right, at any given moment ... but half is wrong (don't get technical, you know what I mean).
I really should stop visiting the speculation forum all together, but I'm weak, and I do care about short term swings even though I'm not going to participate in the game.
Again I ask, please don't take offence by my call of "bullshit" above. I'm only human, and I could be wrong.
Best of luck,
+1 You're not wrong. In the short term, the variables are too many, and too unknown, for ANYONE to predict what the Bitcoin market will do. |
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Actually, what we need is for someone like Paxum, bit-pay or even mtgox itself to make the process of conversion transparent, on demand and instantaneous.
For example, say I have 342.45 BTC in my mtgox account and I'm at Starbucks. I swipe my mtgox debit card, pay $24 USD (or whatever the bastards are charging for coffee these days) and it gets debited from my mtgox BTC account.
Replace mtgox with Paxum, who already have a MasterCard system in place, or bit-pay, who are the best at making things happen, and suddenly we can start living our lives in BTC instead of dollars, euros or pesos.
Bit-pay presented such a service at CES, you pay in BTC and they get credited in cash at their account! I know about the service Bit-Pay showed off at CES, but what I'm suggesting is almost the exact opposite. You hold an account in BTC with Bit-pay (or Paxum, MtGox or some new company), and you can use their debit card anywhere that takes a debit card. You pay in whatever the local currency is, but the money gets debited from your BTC account at the exchange rate for the moment the transaction occurred. In fact, it could even be the same card Bit-Pay uses, going both ways. But so far no one has come up with this particular model. It would instantly allow people to start using BTC as the default repository of value for them. You could get paid in dollars, then instantly convert those to BTC and just use your debit card to make day to day payments. The problem BTC has, in North America and Europe, is that people don't understand the gigantic implications of having a naturally deflationary currency. For that, Narydu, we need people like your, or me, who have felt the ravages of an inflationary currency first hand. Give people a debit card based on Bitcoin, and it suddenly doesn't matter how much or how little inflation will hurt the US dollar, the Euro or the British Pound. The choice would be obvious. There is another thread about a magstripe based payment card here. It seems that the best thing to do would be a combination of the QR code for incoming payments, and a magstripe for outgoing payments. Bit-pay would be the broker for the magstripe payments, and the QR code payments would go right to your wallet, and you could spend the contents of the wallet from your mobile to other QR codes, or use an app to send them back to Bit-pay to be used for magstripe payments. Yes, that would be fantastic... Bit-pay could take this one and run with it, or they could strike a deal with Paxum, who already have a card system that works, and just take care of the BTC conversions. |
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Actually, what we need is for someone like Paxum, bit-pay or even mtgox itself to make the process of conversion transparent, on demand and instantaneous.
For example, say I have 342.45 BTC in my mtgox account and I'm at Starbucks. I swipe my mtgox debit card, pay $24 USD (or whatever the bastards are charging for coffee these days) and it gets debited from my mtgox BTC account.
Replace mtgox with Paxum, who already have a MasterCard system in place, or bit-pay, who are the best at making things happen, and suddenly we can start living our lives in BTC instead of dollars, euros or pesos.
Bit-pay presented such a service at CES, you pay in BTC and they get credited in cash at their account! I know about the service Bit-Pay showed off at CES, but what I'm suggesting is almost the exact opposite. You hold an account in BTC with Bit-pay (or Paxum, MtGox or some new company), and you can use their debit card anywhere that takes a debit card. You pay in whatever the local currency is, but the money gets debited from your BTC account at the exchange rate for the moment the transaction occurred. In fact, it could even be the same card Bit-Pay uses, going both ways. But so far no one has come up with this particular model. It would instantly allow people to start using BTC as the default repository of value for them. You could get paid in dollars, then instantly convert those to BTC and just use your debit card to make day to day payments. The problem BTC has, in North America and Europe, is that people don't understand the gigantic implications of having a naturally deflationary currency. For that, Narydu, we need people like your, or me, who have felt the ravages of an inflationary currency first hand. Give people a debit card based on Bitcoin, and it suddenly doesn't matter how much or how little inflation will hurt the US dollar, the Euro or the British Pound. The choice would be obvious. |
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I'm outta here!  So, who's driving if you're in the backseat?  Edward50 Priceless |
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Actually, what we need is for someone like Paxum, bit-pay or even mtgox itself to make the process of conversion transparent, on demand and instantaneous.
For example, say I have 342.45 BTC in my mtgox account and I'm at Starbucks. I swipe my mtgox debit card, pay $24 USD (or whatever the bastards are charging for coffee these days) and it gets debited from my mtgox BTC account.
Replace mtgox with Paxum, who already have a MasterCard system in place, or bit-pay, who are the best at making things happen, and suddenly we can start living our lives in BTC instead of dollars, euros or pesos.
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If you want to trade in BTC without being connected to blockchain and announced transactions, you will have
Ahhhhh Thats what i missed, The sending of fake coins, DOY!
It could just use a low bandwidth connection to the vending machine operator's private server systems which do the actual blockchain checking. These servers could even issue the payment addresses to the machine so that the private keys never need to be stored on the vending machine or even travel to/from it. Exactly. The transaction doesn't have to happen at the machine level. As long as the machine gets "authorized" to drop that pack of popcorn, the transaction can fully happen elsewhere. |
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Today is the last day of the show. It's been a very busy and exhausting 4 days, but we have talked to alot of really big decision makers at some major companies. These deals will take time to follow up on and complete. but look for an explosion of bitcoin in 2012, in ways you can't imagine. some of these ideas we had not even thought of!
Grrr! You tease!  I don't care how much you tease us, provided the big reveal isn't something along the lines of: We're all going to Pattaya!!! |
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Or someone should create a system that piggybacks onto ebay, but allows people to transact in bitcoins.
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Or... how long does it take to get a pack of popcorn out of a normal machine when you DON'T have a coin in your pocket? You have to get out of the building, go to the nearest convenience store, buy a pack of gum, get the change, walk back into the building, put the coin in the machine.
Look at all the steps you've saved just by pulling your cell phone out of your pocket and using Bitcoin!
:-)
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I'm well aware of the numerous possibilities that could lead to Bitcoin's demise. The most severe ones are fundamental technical problems, legal problems and the possibility of a new technology that renders Bitcoin obsolete. These are the big issues and challenges which we need to keep a close eye on.
It has also been proven that the issues don't have to be catastrophical for the exchange rate to crash. None of the bad stuff that happened in 2011 were catastrophical to Bitcoin itself, the issues were with 3rd parties. Certain important 3rd parties have a very important role in the economy which means that if they have big issues it can set Bitcoin back at least temporarily.
However I believe that the understanding of Bitcoin has significantly improved since May. And it's going to improve in the future. This will make the impact of 3rd party failures at least somewhat smaller. Even in this case we will always have to worry about the severe issues that I listed in the first paragraph.
One other thing, though. Even though the failures of 2011 did have a serious impact on Bitcoin, they did not outright wipe it off the map. This isn't a trivial point. Just imagine what would have happened with the US dollar if the New York Stock Exchange had been hacked and all stocks had been sold down to a few cents each... or the impact on the gold market if someone had stolen about 5 percent of the world supply of gold in any given two month period (putting together MyBitcoin, allinvain and Bitomat). The implications would have been far deeper and lasted far longer. Will there be other hacks? Probably. Other thefts? Almost certainly. I can also give you an almost 100 percent certainty that there will be a crash of a large jetliner some time in the next two years, but that doesn't mean that commercial aviation is unsafe, and it sure as hell doesn't mean it's just as unsafe as it was in the 1930's, the 1960's or the 1980's. |
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Nicely done. I was going to contribute there, but if Erik is on it, you already have all the help you might ever need :-) Keep up posted on what happens. |
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I've been re-reading this thread, and found that the following post echoed my sentiment here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=58206.msg687780#msg687780Guy's you are missing the point. NO_SLAVE doesn't understand economic theory as well as you. On the other hand, he has a superior understanding of the psychology of regular people. From a mathematical perspective moving the decimal point is the same as a stock split, an event that happens with little fuss in the investment world. However regular people do not have that perspective. They will see prices rising and will assume that hyper-inflation is coming. Logically there is no reason to fear, because your balance and income will also be increasing. However people are inherently irrational and they will lose confidence in the currency.
We need to move the decimal place NOW (two places?) before bitcoin becomes popular. We probably shouldn't fuss around with micro this and that, we should just redefine BTC for psychological reasons. In fact every time it gets to $10 the decimal should shift one place automatically, and BTC would be redefined. This would be just one of the "cool things about bitcoin: they reproduce!!!!"
Having lived through a currency moving by two decimal points, I can assure you, it's a mess. It's much "cleaner" to move the decimal point in thousands, rather than hundreds. |
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It would be nice to know if there's any interest on the part of reporters and journalists.
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Like gold coins that no one can counterfeit and you can send instantly across the globe.
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Not a bad article at all. It will still go over grandma's head, but I think it will resonate with a huge spectrum of the non-technical readers out there. Well done.
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