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1501  Other / Off-topic / Re: an appeal to reason on: August 30, 2011, 02:51:07 PM
What is Stefan Thomas doing with JS?

Inquiring minds want to know!

I understand he's working on an online wallet, with encryption, that you'll be able to access from your handheld device and will be secure. Really, really cool stuff. www.bitcoinjs.org
1502  Other / Off-topic / Re: Two interesting emails I received today... on: August 30, 2011, 01:53:28 PM
I cannot speak for the second half of your email. But as for the first half, the fact that you even need to come out and disclose this in an open forum is beyond ridiculous. You have been the subject of pure and simple character assassination, complete with innuendo, witch hunts and the rest. I for one don't need any explanations from you, because I simply don't believe the accusations. Was the choice of Pattaya for a Bitcoin conference wise? Who knows? Beyond that, everything else that has happened is quite shameful and you didn't deserve it.

I hope you'll take some comfort in the fact that there have been many voices on this forum saying essentially the same thing. Some of us take the presumption of innocence principle seriously.

Cheers, Bruce, hope you can get past this nastiness somewhat unscathed.

1503  Other / Off-topic / an appeal to reason on: August 30, 2011, 01:44:56 PM
An internet forum is probably not the place to ask that reason prevail, but haven't we flogged some dead horses enough? Allegations of child sexual abuse? Really, is that what this has come to?

Some really interesting, juicy stuff is happening with Bitcoin (ATM's, the lightning speed at which Bit-Pay resolved the question of donations, the javascript work being done by Stefan Thomas and so on).

It would speak volumes to the maturity of this forum, and of the Bitcoin community at large, if we could concentrate on those.
1504  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Serious situation with TradeHill imminent on: August 30, 2011, 12:39:57 PM
so, just heard about tradehill updating its policies regarding australian authorities.

http://tradehillblog.com/


If anyone still had any illusions: Bitcoin is not anonymous.

This only proves that operations that involve government currency are not anonymous. It says nothing about Bitcoin.

And not, Bitcoin is not anonymous, its pseudo-anonymous.

Exactly, there are two ways to go about changing fiat currencies to Bitcoin. Follow the regulations and appease the government  or risk getting shut down.
Bitcoin exchanges being shut down doesn't help anyone. If you want to buy Bitcoins anonymously there are other methods. 
We will let everyone know before we make additional changes.

Jered

Yup, if you're so hung up on anonymity, meet up with someone at the nearest Starbucks or wait till a Bitcoin ATM reaches your town. Nice going, Tradehill. The more iterations of you there are out there, the harder it's going to be for anyone to ever fully shut you down.
1505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 08:07:45 PM
Given a fixed amount of money ($100) and a fixed time frame (month), can a specific trader in isolation beat the market by at least some percentage (3%) using only charts and indicators but no news media? Then do it again next month and next?

The answer is no. However, since there are lots and lots of such traders someone will - but it's not due to skill but simply chance.



Netrin, turn the question around. If the analysis is so definitive and the options are so easy to understand, how come not ALL TRADERS always perform significantly above market averages?
1506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 29, 2011, 07:36:01 PM
However, if after taking note of this ONE individual, he continues to flip heads, heads, heads, heads then you should start suspecting a duplicate sided coin, because this is statistically significant.

Yes! Cheesy The point is that so far there's no trader ever that has outperformed chance, that is, has been trading at a statistically significant level that cannot just be explained with being one out of all traders in existence.

If someone claims to be such a trader, and in addition claims to have a method behind it, that will result in an instant Nobel Prize.


heh... is that head of yours hurting from bashing it against the wall enough times already? I feel for you, defxor  Grin

Perhaps someone should start a thread on statistics. Or a thread called "No matter how well you're doing, if you're one of many it's still pretty much random".

Oh, well, like the endless discussions on deflationary spirals and "what backs Bitcoin", I'm afraid we're destined to have this conversation with the uninitiated many, many times.
1507  Economy / Economics / Re: Ron Paul and Bitcoin on: August 29, 2011, 07:24:12 PM
Really? I mean, really really?

Do you have even the remotest sense of what life is like in a theocracy? Nah, didn't think so. Try Iran.

Sheesh...

Because being religious instantly means you hate freedom and want everyone to obey the will of god or else?

Actually, pretty much, yes... unless you happen to be a Buddhist, being religious, by definition, requires taking positions as an article of faith. In other words, you take a position because you are given the authority to do so (by whatever book is the underpinning of your particular religion), and that authority trumps any other position.

And being religious also speaks to your inability to detect irrationality, by the way. Never an inspiring quality in a political leader.

Finally, I don't care what your political affiliation happens to be. If you think evolution is "just a theory" and you "don't believe in it", you're a bit of a wingnut.

So yes, when it comes to choosing the leader of a government, I'd say his or her religion, and the depths to which he or she believes in it as a matter of faith, are of pretty paramount importance.
1508  Economy / Economics / Re: Ron Paul and Bitcoin on: August 29, 2011, 07:08:17 PM
Who gives a shit if he is religious and anti abortion? You have to be pretty far removed from reality to think this issues are important when choosing who to vote for.

Really? I mean, really really?

Do you have even the remotest sense of what life is like in a theocracy? Nah, didn't think so. Try Iran.

Sheesh...
1509  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: TED discussion - Bitcoin - Commerce without Borders on: August 29, 2011, 03:39:00 PM
the reason why so many of you fail at promoting bitcoin and end up doing the exact opposite and fucking it over, is because people need to get to it on their own, like it's the best kept secret ever, which in some ways it still is. It's the lucrativeness that bring people to it, not some bullshit marketing or advertising
All it needs is people who accept bitcoin and face to face word of mouth, by people that know what they are talking about. 

the way you guys go about doing this shit, has the S's (schemer, scammer and spammer) written all over it.

1) Did you actually read the convo I had opened at TED?

2) If so, how could you possibly have perceived that as "spammy"??

The convo was totally appropriate, given TED's audience and demographics. The entire thesis was how Bitcoin may change economic relationships in poor countries. I understand some on these forums have spammed promotion... but I don't, and this wasn't.

Agreed evorhees, your convo was perfectly reasonable for TED. That it got pulled, though, is just another measure of the credibility problem Bitcoin seems to have. If you did anything wrong (and I don't think you did), it was timing it badly. We need to bring credibility to Bitcoin from the ground up. Not so much stability, mind you, as a sense of legitimacy which will have more to do with mainstream media and the academic world starting to look at Bitcoin in that light.

Don't worry, in a few years TED will want to have speakers on Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and digital money... in the meantime, let's get the word out through other channels.
1510  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to make sure Bitcoin will never be banned by governments! on: August 29, 2011, 03:08:18 PM
I wholly support you and your actions and efforts, but I think it's a mistake to think you can do anything to keep government from regulating bitcoins. Governments like the US will be hard pressed to get rid of something like encrypted numbers. To outlaw bitcoin would only mean we have to change the name of bitcoin, really. You cannot outlaw numbers.

You can outlaw the exchange of cryptocurrency, then businesses would be breaking the law in the country that does this including monetary exchanges.  From that point a government could monitor postal and wire transfers to/from known foreign exchanges.  After that essentially a country that has done this has limited the use of the currency to nearly untraceable person to person transfers and already illegal/underground businesses.  It would make the currency in that country nearly useless.  But yes a favorable PR movement to push past the stigma that bitcoin is the currency of money launderers and the illegal drug trade could only be beneficial, even more so is to donate the actual coin to them and someone help set them up a secure cryptocurrency donation system rather than have a 3rd party receive and then exchange to fiat currency.

You'd have to be able to ban the exchange of cryptocurrency in EVERY COUNTRY. That includes Bolivia, Bhutan, North Korea, Holland... and about 230 others.

No, just as I mentioned, a government(s) could ban the local exchanges and then monitor postal and financial wire transfers from the other known ones, no this would not entirely shut down the exchange of cryptocurrency but it would essentially shut it down for the average joe and plain jane consumers of the system and those are the ones needed to establish a real economy and not a black market play currency.

Uh huh... the way the Chinese government bans access to the internet, for example. There are still people behind the great firewall connecting to the internet every day... and a p2p network would be even more difficult to monitor. And say the Chilean government gets away with it and forces Tradehill to shut down... two days later you'd have Tradehill operating from Argentina, or Peru.

Governments could try and make it difficult for Bitcoin, but an outright ban would be as impossible as banning porn, or music and movie downloads.

I'm not arguing that but under a banned situation with reasonably difficult means to access the plain jane's and average joe's would not be in the market at a level sufficient to build it up as a currency.  The only real defense is to give it a good name and mass adoption before this happens and hope that if it does happen the the users I am talking about don't flee on mass and plummet the value of the currency but again this would be isolated to only the countries that did this so likely this would be done on a more global cooperative banning like say the major western and eastern countries seeking to "save" their currencies.  Putting up say tradehill in some other country alone would not work for the average user because the governments that ban it could fairly easily monitor traffic via the net or even postal to the new tradehill location and then you would get into needing proxies and other intermediaries and that is were the average consumer would find it more burdensome than what it is worth.

Starting to have people see charitable contribution is a positive move toward the defense of cryptocurrency, and mass adoption is the next since it becomes that much more difficult for a government to ban the currency in a "good" light to it's citizens, right now the easy justification is the view that this currency is for money launderers and the black market and banning it under those typical uses would be much more easy for the government than banning an "honest" economy for the currency.

Any thing other than seeing this obvious fact is just speculation, sure in countries where it is banned wont eliminate it but it would have a notable impact to the value and adoption of the currency is all I am saying.  If you look at some other posts I made about this rough topic you will see that I am more inclined to see that positive legislation is more likely to occur than negative however.  Economies that are more isolated and in need of much more import based trade are likely to see cryptocurrency since it helps to reduce the impact to currency exchange for those countries (ie. Australia, New Zealand), additionally if "Wall Street" picks up on the trade/investment potential of cryptocurrency (Ruxum is a very good example of this starting to happen), then you would likely see governments not trying to ban it but to tax it just like any other forex or stock/mutual fund investment.

Oh, I'm the first to agree with you that Bitcoin is suffering from a tremendous crisis of credibility right now. In fact, it's what prompted me to start the thread on a PR effort. I also happen to think that donations to NGOs and charities are a very important aspect of any PR campaign, though just one aspect of it, and it should come together with other approaches to the media and academic circles as well.

I was just commenting on the relative ease with which a government might be able to ban Bitcoin as a currency or commodity. I don't think it would be easy at all, actually.

Cheers,
1511  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to make sure Bitcoin will never be banned by governments! on: August 29, 2011, 02:18:12 PM
I wholly support you and your actions and efforts, but I think it's a mistake to think you can do anything to keep government from regulating bitcoins. Governments like the US will be hard pressed to get rid of something like encrypted numbers. To outlaw bitcoin would only mean we have to change the name of bitcoin, really. You cannot outlaw numbers.

You can outlaw the exchange of cryptocurrency, then businesses would be breaking the law in the country that does this including monetary exchanges.  From that point a government could monitor postal and wire transfers to/from known foreign exchanges.  After that essentially a country that has done this has limited the use of the currency to nearly untraceable person to person transfers and already illegal/underground businesses.  It would make the currency in that country nearly useless.  But yes a favorable PR movement to push past the stigma that bitcoin is the currency of money launderers and the illegal drug trade could only be beneficial, even more so is to donate the actual coin to them and someone help set them up a secure cryptocurrency donation system rather than have a 3rd party receive and then exchange to fiat currency.

You'd have to be able to ban the exchange of cryptocurrency in EVERY COUNTRY. That includes Bolivia, Bhutan, North Korea, Holland... and about 230 others.

No, just as I mentioned, a government(s) could ban the local exchanges and then monitor postal and financial wire transfers from the other known ones, no this would not entirely shut down the exchange of cryptocurrency but it would essentially shut it down for the average joe and plain jane consumers of the system and those are the ones needed to establish a real economy and not a black market play currency.

Uh huh... the way the Chinese government bans access to the internet, for example. There are still people behind the great firewall connecting to the internet every day... and a p2p network would be even more difficult to monitor. And say the Chilean government gets away with it and forces Tradehill to shut down... two days later you'd have Tradehill operating from Argentina, or Peru.

Governments could try and make it difficult for Bitcoin, but an outright ban would be as impossible as banning porn, or music and movie downloads.
1512  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How to make sure Bitcoin will never be banned by governments! on: August 29, 2011, 02:07:43 PM
I wholly support you and your actions and efforts, but I think it's a mistake to think you can do anything to keep government from regulating bitcoins. Governments like the US will be hard pressed to get rid of something like encrypted numbers. To outlaw bitcoin would only mean we have to change the name of bitcoin, really. You cannot outlaw numbers.

You can outlaw the exchange of cryptocurrency, then businesses would be breaking the law in the country that does this including monetary exchanges.  From that point a government could monitor postal and wire transfers to/from known foreign exchanges.  After that essentially a country that has done this has limited the use of the currency to nearly untraceable person to person transfers and already illegal/underground businesses.  It would make the currency in that country nearly useless.  But yes a favorable PR movement to push past the stigma that bitcoin is the currency of money launderers and the illegal drug trade could only be beneficial, even more so is to donate the actual coin to them and someone help set them up a secure cryptocurrency donation system rather than have a 3rd party receive and then exchange to fiat currency.

You'd have to be able to ban the exchange of cryptocurrency in EVERY COUNTRY. That includes Bolivia, Bhutan, North Korea, Holland... and about 230 others.
1513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins on: August 28, 2011, 11:17:42 AM
For a good analysis on how chance compares against market experts, I suggest reading The Drunkard's Walk, by physicist Leonard Mlodinow. Dexfor's point is valid, I'm afraid. The key statistical issue isn't whether someone has made money in over 70% of his or her trades (whether by choosing when to buy/sell, or how to apply stop-loss is irrelevant).

The question is, given that there are x number of traders, all trying their best, what are the chances that, in any given time frame, ONE of them at least will hit 70% of positive trades... And the answer the chances are really quite high. The ones who didn't reach 70% we simply don't know about. But the fact remains that with nothing more sophisticated than a coin toss SOMEONE would have hit 70%.

In his book, Mlodinow explores the case of one Wall Street trader who was hailed as a financial hero because he outperformed the Dow 17 years in a row. On the face of it, it seemed like almost insurmountable odds, but when properly analyzed it turned out to be something closer to one in two.
1514  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin PR effort on: August 28, 2011, 11:02:42 AM
Ok, so let me try to advance this idea a little bit. Some of us are already starting to move forward and we could use help from people here.

If you have a background in PR, advertising, writing, media, website development or academia, and want to participate, feel free to send me a private message, let me know what your strong suit is (what you feel you might be able to contribute) and I'll try to keep you in the loop.

Cheers,
1515  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: what to charge for cold storage? on: August 27, 2011, 02:15:36 AM
Why not just keep your coins in an exchange that offers cold storage for free?

I think the main advantage here is that you can define how much do you want to keep in cold storage. Let's say you deposit 1000 coins at MtGox. If they get hacked, how much will you loose? You never know...

The other advantage is that flexcoin offers monthly "discounts" (which is basically interest). The more you save, the more you earn.

Also, unlike the exchanges, flexcoin pays a sort of "interest" on your holdings.
1516  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin PR effort on: August 27, 2011, 01:52:44 AM
Check your inbox someotherguy.
1517  Other / Off-topic / Re: Pattaya on: August 27, 2011, 12:43:28 AM
Really, the Asian conference should be held in the Yap Islands!
1518  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Business Review - Call for Writers on: August 26, 2011, 07:35:59 PM
Would you consider expanding it well beyond the narrow scope of a Business Review? I'm thinking something that encompasses every aspect of the Bitcoin world might fit nicely into the PR niche I was talking about in my other thread.
1519  Economy / Speculation / Re: Holy CRAP the manipulator has pulled out!!!!! Freefall seems inevitable on: August 26, 2011, 07:07:24 PM
The real market value is over $30. Get some cheap while you can.

What is this based on?

Not as a skeptical question, but since you as a big pool op. might have better understanding of the market, statistics etc.
(I find $30 perfectly logical in the long term, just would like to know the reasoning)

Heh, the REAL market value is upwards of $10,000 per BTC... it all depends what decade we're talking about  Grin
1520  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Conference 2011 NYC on: August 26, 2011, 07:05:11 PM
Notice how the only people who have a problem with me banning people are the same people would be the ones catching that ban  Cheesy.

Such a joke.
Kind of like how the only people who had a problem with Nazis killing people were the people being killed.

Hehe, FlipPro, what are you, 12? I have no reason to believe I would "catch a ban", and if I did, it really wouldn't matter much (you do realise this is just a tiny, obscure forum in a tiny, obscure corner of the internet, right?). I have a problem with banning people for what they say or think... just a problem I've had for a very long time now, in general. If you ban someone from expressing themselves, it only reflects badly on the weakness of your own ideas and arguments. If your position was solid, you'd have no need to ban anyone.

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