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1701  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2020, 01:59:36 PM
way to go yogi...ruin all our fun..freakin bears

i shall don the cone of shame
1702  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 02, 2020, 01:40:14 AM
The monthly update:



August 2020 - a month of rest before stormy weather?

Just a short update as the workload in this "crisis" has become completely unbearable.  ~30 pages to catch up. Embarrassed

Gentlemen, enjoy the last days of this summer and have a great month of September!  Smiley


-----------

+2 WOsMerits

ty for the monthly updates sir..much appreciated by all i think



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the evening wall report




#haiku
Razzle dazzle time!
or it gets the spatula...
Bitcoin, to the Moon!




4h



D

#stronghands
1703  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 08:40:25 PM
W

#stronghands
1704  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 05:29:35 PM
I have a picture on my wall of my ancestor plowing the ancestral fields with two oxen.



Why do your ancestor and his oxen (bulls?) all have hard-ons?

+1 WOsMerit


info...we need a new poll!
1705  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 05:19:40 PM
I'm not shilling what I have, just that it's working for me at the moment and helping pay some bills. (It's some coin I held a couple years ago that got a new life as a defi token.)

I felt dirty issuing an actual bonafide merit for this one, so take a "+1 WO Merit" instead... I guess ?



C'mon Bitcoin let's break this $12.5K

Dude. Don't jinx it ! Too soon to be breaking $12.5k USD/BTC in a healthy manner. Let's try to find stability at $12k USD/BTC first.




----------

I felt dirty issuing an actual bonafide merit for this one, so take a "+1 WO Merit" instead... I guess ?

What's a real merit between friends? Here, +1 merit.

I looked at that 3 and half hour youtube video, it's all talking, and then in the description, there is a link to the transcript. So if you like giant walls of text, there is that option.

I like reading better than listening to someone read. I'll probably do the listen later after I've already read it.

https://nav.al/rich





----------


#haiku
pointed nose to tail
into the stars we sail bright
moon corn full tonight
1706  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 04:44:51 PM
the noon wall report at 9:45am

#dyor

bats have shoulders
1h


bats hang upside down
4h

#stronghands
1707  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 04:16:48 PM
1708  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 03:50:10 PM
Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still bouncing generally sideways but with a slight upward trend... currently $11876USD/$15473 (Bitcoinaverage).

Still not sure which side of $12k to choose in the poll. It's a toss-up. The battle is far from over.

-snipped-


1709  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 02:43:43 PM
morning charts
 Smiley

1h


4h

#stronghands
1710  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 01, 2020, 03:18:56 AM
 Roll Eyes

emptied bags too soon?  probably should forget this account as well



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1711  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 08:26:43 PM
Voted $12.0k - $12.5k.
Quite some resistance to take out until even touching $12k, though.


1712  Economy / Speculation / Re: Institutional Money Observer on: August 31, 2020, 08:09:52 PM
That is fine though, if people are fine about using the same bitcoin over and over again on paper they will be super rich, however this is not fiat, they can't just bankrupt and get away with it, or they can't just ask someone to give them more, basically there is a limited amount, so if they just go too above, they will crash and they will definitely not be able to pay everyone back because they have more bitcoin outstanding on their accounts than what they really have on their wallets.

Bitcoin is not fiat and it would not be kind to them, it doesn't care if you are super rich, it doesn't care if you go down millions go down, it will destroy you if you try to do anything that it doesn't do, you just have to follow up as a company and respect what bitcoin is all about if you do not want to be destroyed.


This could be a contributing factor for slow legacy market(read institutional) adoption. They are habituated on control of markets and entering one that is outside of their typical manipulation tactics scares them.


Even people who've been in Bitcoin for years, and often from the near beginning, eventually attempt to impose their will on it and wind up getting pounded in the butthole. I'm sure institutional types will try the same and reach the same conclusion.

I'm slightly worried about the opposite scenario, where institutional trading is extremely high volume and sufficiently arbitrages the spot market through physical delivery or open-ended share redemption.

Markets tend to follow the highest volume exchanges. This is where practices like rehypothecation come in, because they amplify liquidity and volume, and this will become especially true once we start seeing leveraged instruments on Wall Street that are physically backed or delivered.

If Wall Street dominates the spot market in terms of volume, the spot market may become a slave to it.

Been thinking about the volume 'factor' a bit lately..and will be the first to concede that it has played a significant role on my interpretation of where the bitcoin market is heading. After some further contemplation, I believe as the price goes up we will see a continued decline in this metric due to the fact it will take less coin at higher prices to achieve the same objectives. Perhaps my hypothesis has a fundamental flaw as it might be offset with more players using smaller amounts..will just have to wait and see how it plays out.
1713  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 07:28:51 PM
a now late wall report..minus the report

Just some charting against a backdrop that essentially looks fine imo. Not sure what is causing folks to feel bearish other than perhaps wanting cheap coins.
Bitcoin is trading over $11.7k..this seems fine.

#dyor
1h


4h

#stronghands
1714  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 07:19:28 PM

Just because we are talking about walls and BTC price movement in the short term, does not really mean that we give too many shits about short term BTC price movements - or that we are not keeping long term likely UPpity in mind.

There is no need to get all UPpity JuanSnowGee. The UPpity will come at its proper time and place.

You are participating in those same conversations and talking about what you believe about UP or DOWN in the short term, so shouldn't we lump you in the same category regarding what your concerns are because you are regularly posting about such?

No.

There should be no lumping what so ever...especially if I am the lumpee. I will however concede that I much prefer to be the lumper rather than the lumpee if we are going to have lumpage of the unwashed masses.


Of course, similar with traders, there are going to be all kinds of variation within any identified group, so yeah you are entitled to having your doom and gloom theory about miners potentially being over extended, even though I do not really buy that theory, personally.

I am unsure if my statements...or theory as would have you, qualifies as something that falls into a doom and gloom scenario.


I believe that miners have overall been profitable, and sure they can hold back some coins in order to speculate on the BTC price going up, and likely they have always engaged in some conduct, but the longer and longer that bitcoin is in business the more and more the dumber miners have been getting screened out, and the more and more that miners have figured out ways to meaningfully balance their approach to cash out from time to time and also to hold back enough coins to speculate.

I believe this as well. If said miners tend to follow sound business practices and withhodl 3 to 6 months of operating capital for just in case, such capitulation theories become moot.

I doubt that the bitcoin space is getting less and less stable with the passage of time, even though BIGGER and BIGGER players continue to come into the space and attempt to throw larger and larger capital at the situation to attempt to get their way, but in the end, we are seeing longer term (you like long term, right? chart patterns that are seeming to show 4 year fractal and even the stock to flow model to be almost too eerily close to being 100% spot on...

Yes.

Yeah, I am not going to proclaim that the BTC price is guaranteed to continue to follow those 4-year fractal and stock to flow model patterns, but they continue to serve as some of the best predictors in spite a lot of the maneuvering and dickering around that either BIG money does or even crazy ass shit in the macro financial space.

This seems wise and I reluctantly agree.

So for example, let's say we get a hundred thousand BTC dumped over a variety of exchanges and BTC prices drop down to $6,500 again, how long is that drop going to last?  I will believe it when I see it.  I am not suggesting that it is NOT impossible, but largely we are seeming way more inclined for UPpity than DOWNity, currently, even if we experience a few more dumpenings of coins to attempt to shake out some more weak hands, but if even the weakhands are not being shook, then I suppose that they are NOT fitting in the definition of weak hands.

Personally, I would not mind witnessing of shaking some of the ethereum and some of that defi bullshit smoke and mirror froth.. those areas seem way more vulnerable than speculative seemingly lame-ass theories of purported BTC miner capitulation.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Stronghands are not shook...ever. I thought you knew this JuanSnowGee.


----

TypeError: must be toxic2040, not wordybot


Please stand by as we run heuristics and reboot toxic2040.exe


That is all.
1715  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 04:01:23 PM
Reset




+1 WOsMerit

thanks info

1716  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 03:53:55 PM
Tomorrow is the close of the monthly candle and will bring further clarity as what lies ahead.  #dyor

Do you really believe that there is any kind of material significance to monthly candles?

Are monthly candles used by anything?  Bots?   Sure, they might be displayed here and there, but really significance?

Remember, from time to time, we also have quarterly, yearly and even 4 year candles being touted about, too.

I am not proclaiming any kind of non-significance of these various candles, but I wonder if you are really seriously excited about such impending monthly candle close or you are just a tease?    Tongue Tongue Tongue

yes

My interest stems from the fact that monthly candles describe long term macro trends and that is where my interest in bitcoin lies...long term. As for material significance? I am not sure how much can be gleaned from monthlies for day to day trading..which I think is what the majority of hodlers in this thread are focused on. We dont even have 9 years of monthly candles yet..just over 100 candles maybe? That is not enough of a statistically relevant number to be making assumptions on. Each month closed reduces noise however..so again...yes, I am excited.
----

In approximately 2 to 6 weeks...miners capitulate and we see some form or another of a V pattern.

Do you really believe that miners are on the edge?  There is a lot of behind the scenes with miners, and surely over the years and the various halvenings, we have had a variety of nonsense miner death spiral theories spouted out that do not end up playing out, but seems that part of the underlying presumption of your miner capitulation theory would be that there is something unsustainable going on behind the scenes in mining.

Sure we could have a three gorges dam rupture or something catastrophic like that, but that does not seem to be being calculated in the scenario that you are conjecturing, toxic.

I look at the recent halvening and the largely stable hashing power being thrown at bitcoin with even a slightly high point after this last difficulty adjustment:

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

In my potentially rosey eyes, mining hash rate continues to appear bullish as fuck on an ongoing basis, including the difficulty adjustments that were made before and after our most recent halvening and really how steady the ongoing upward pressures on difficulty continues to seem as UPpity.  Am I missing something?

yes

Perhaps I was not clear enough in my statements. I think there is a difference between miners turning off rigs due to profitability and affecting difficulty and miners having to dump coin to pay bills. Which the latter is what I was referring to. I believe some miners have been hodling coins on the possibility that there might be a significant rise in price and at some point selling capitulation might be a factor. Again..in my humble opinion.
1717  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2020, 01:21:26 AM
the weekly wall report

Bitcoin posted a solid day closing the weekly candle at $11,708.97 on declining volumes. Tomorrow is the close of the monthly candle and will bring further clarity as what lies ahead.  #dyor

The daily candle almost closed as marubozu though perhaps not as it has a small wick at the bottom. I consider it close as we finished the day at the top of the trading range. The technical definition is a candle that trades strongly in one direction and closes at its high or low range for the session in case any of you are wondering.

Bears eat crow
D


As for the weekly candle..there is much to unpack here so bear with me. Bitcoin finished the week in the green with a strong push above $11.65k resistance opening the door for further upwards movement. Obviously of the three possible ways we can go here..I think two are more probable...up or down. Sideways consolidation has been the theme for the last 4 weeks or so and I believe we are about to breakout of the range we have been currently trading in...basically $11k to $12k. The strong global demand for bitcoin as a store of value seems to be increasing as the shock wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and social unrest promulgate around the world. That is one part of the equation.
The second part is of course the miners. Will they hodl? Can they continue to hodl? I am not sure tbh. The two scenarios I envision are this..
1.  In approximately 2 to 6 weeks...miners capitulate and we see some form or another of a V pattern. Price drops downwards toward the 0.5 long fib line at around $10.5k and we see more trading between $9.5k and $10.5k.  It could be even worse if hodlers panic over the US elections and we loose long fib support and perhaps drop down into the cloud and retest vegeta levels. Regardless I dont see $8k support being tested again unless sha-256 is broken.
2. The second scenario is much more pleasant..bitcoin spikes upwards over the next several weeks and does not look backwards until a new ATH. Perhaps not much even then. I think bulls should be targeting the $25k range as a new median price for corn. It has a nice psychological weight to it and imho would make a nice launch platform for the next leg upwards. All things worth considering.  

Honey badger bites eagle on the ass
W


More data available tomorrow of course but the monthly continues to look bullish. Carry on.
M

#stronghands
1718  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2020, 09:29:35 PM


+1 WOsMerit


-----



+1 WOsMerit    Grin
1719  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2020, 05:09:56 PM

Good to see you're still here dropping wisdom  Smiley

+2 WOsMerits


--------

Much wisdom and more importantly in my opinion..empathy shown over the last pages WO's. This is why I hang my hat here.

+1 WOsMerit guys


--------


the Elephants song leads cadence as the march goes on
1h


toe jam and elbow grease
4h

#stronghands
1720  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2020, 06:40:45 AM
There is an unconfirmed report that Risto Pietila has died. By his own hand, people are saying. More if I get it.

ffs  Cry
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