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581  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Who is More Evil? on: August 03, 2014, 02:42:46 AM
Despite the hate towards America, I don't think they have killed anyway near as many as the Russians or Chinese have.

What's going in China is some really, really serious shit, Probably even worse than in n.Korea considering they are affecting many times more people.

Communist countries is more evil. They totally supressed its citizens to a mere zombies. They killed its citizens as if they are chickens or animals. Stalin and mao killed more than what is killed in the intire world war 2 fatalities.
I agree. Communist countries are likely the worse of all political and economic structures. There is no mobility and the government is very powerful and will use force if you try to think freely.
582  Economy / Speculation / Re: No Mt.Gox....No Willy bot....No moon! on: August 03, 2014, 12:31:51 AM
Maybe whoever was behind the bot will just move to another exchange, unless all their bitcoins and money is still trapped on MtGox.

You can't pull off what Willy did with ones own money. Only exchange owners using fake USD and running a fractional reserve could do it.
The bot was just a way for whales to buy a lot of bitcoin while having less of an impact on the price. The whales were not creating money out of thin air but rather were using large investor's money to buy large amounts of bitcoin.
583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just got my BFL refund in BTC, the rally can now start!!! on: August 03, 2014, 12:18:08 AM
I can understand why you would want to get into mining, but I don't understand why you would choose BFL as the company to buy your miner from. That's like throwing your money away.

Because BFL wasn't always like that. In the beginning they had no bad record and they were pretty much the only company to develop ASICs. They fucked up with their 60nm product like, a lot. Ordering from them the second time was mostly due to their marketing trick and I figured that maybe they learned their lesson and now they will actually deliver in time. Also, if you have shit load of new wealth due to ongoing outrageous Bitcoin rally, you most likely act irrationally with it anyway. Emotions, you know Cheesy
They had no bad record because they had no record at all. They likely had a shorter "testing" phase then they do now but still had longer delays then necessary.

Getting a refund is by far the better choice for the OP. With today's difficulty being where it is, the OP had more or less zero chance of ever earning any where near 3 BTC, let alone 5 BTC
584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has this just been the "Silk Road drop" of 2014's bubble? on: August 03, 2014, 12:14:51 AM
Recent drop is not compared to that big one with silk road. Actually there is no bad news now.

Recent drop may been caused by Bitfinex long positions shutting (selling bitcoins and paying borrowed USD back and taking losses.) I also think that Coinbase and Bitpay give decent selling pressure to the markets.. And of course we have thousands of coins mined everyday.
I think both coinbase and bitpay cause a net amount of bitcoin to be purchased rather then sold as people will likely buy some amount greater then what they plan on spending. Companies will also likely hold at least a small percentage of their bitcoin revenue in bitcoin.
585  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: August 02, 2014, 11:01:17 PM
They keep accumulating Smiley
I would say that is not necessarily true. If investors want to cash out then the trust will need to sell bitcoin. It is very similar to people holding their bitcoin at an exchange, just in much larger amounts.
586  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many BTC do you own? on: August 02, 2014, 10:59:08 PM
This should really be in the off topic section. I would also advise anyone reading this to not answer the OPs question as if you were to reveal how many bitcoin you own/control then it could subject you to a number of attacks, as an attacker would know that attempting to hack you could have some benefit, verses attempting to hack a random person may or may not have potential benefit.
587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wikipedia cashed out their BTC donations and price sunk on: August 02, 2014, 10:57:35 PM
Do you have a link that proves that Wikipedia actually cashed out their BTC donations? I would think that a foundation like Wikipedia would likely want to diversify their investments at least a little bit so it would make sense to me that they would keep at least some of their bitcoin donations in bitcoin.
588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Argentina Defaults 2nd time in 13 years! on: August 02, 2014, 10:55:35 PM
I feel really bad for the people over there! This is something that affects your life if you're living in such a country. I don't know if Bitcoin can alleviate some of those problems, but I don't exactly know how we're supposed to 'bring' them Bitcoin and help them subsequently...

If I recall my memories correctly then Argentinian chicks are pretty hot. They can always start a web cam show and earn some international bitcoins. Desperate times take desperate measures you know... To feel bad for someone else is really just an act of self-pity, which in turn originates from self-importance. I assume there is no need to explain why the latter is so bad, it should be self-evident Tongue
WTF lol? You are suggesting that the people of Argentina whore themselves out. I doubt those girls really end up making very much anyway.

I do feel bad for the people of Argentina, however they likely knew that it was coming and were able to plan appropriately. For example the price of bitcoin is trading at a huge premium in terms of Pesos when converted to Dollars, which reflects that the black market trade of pesos has already reduced the value of pesos. 
589  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will the next bubble start? on: August 02, 2014, 10:50:34 PM
I'm hoping that the next time we significantly rally that it isn't a bubble at all.  Every time we shoot up and then fall back down is when the press (and then governments) jump all over BTC and try to add more regulations.

Obviously we are going to have to deal with regulation, but the more volatile we are, the greater the chances for over regulation
All assets have bubbles as it is part of the market process. The question is how often do you see bubbles. In assets like housing it is very rare that you see bubbles (less then once per lifetime) as the total value of all housing is very large, and this kind of assets is very established.

Newer kinds of assets on the other hand tend to see more bubbles as they have a smaller market cap so small amounts of money entering and/or exiting them would have a greater affect on the price.
590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good News but Price drops ? on: August 02, 2014, 10:46:31 PM
The price has never been stable. What are you talking about? Huh
It's people shitting their pants over the BitLicense crap. Who cares, but some big whales do, and they dumped like 1k BTC and made the price go down.

It was months stable ever about 480 to 500 euro.
Never heard for BitLicense



No, that's not stable at all. And no, it wasn't at 480 EUR to 500 EUR. ($641-$669).
Highest was $670, lowest was $560 for the last month. Seriously. That's not stable at all.
Never heard of BitLicense? You must've been living under a rock, please read the news.

What do you think the price will have done by Monday? It's either going to remain roughly the same, or go significantly up or down. I can not predict which it will do, but maybe someone with more experience can.
Without any news, the prices of most financial assets will not change very much over the weekend as the weekend is not a traditional time to do business and trade. Additionally most announcements by businesses are made during the week. Long story short, it is unlikely that the price of bitcoin will change very much on any given weekend. 
591  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: August 02, 2014, 10:40:23 PM
100-200 BTC on p500? I think I earned too much, because they limited my maximum positions to about 1000 USD (actually 25 BTC) a few monts ago Cry

BTW, in my country, taxes on derivatives (CFDs on bitcoin market) are lower than taxes on gains from bitcoins.

During the last bubble they lowered the available leverage(when they were using Gox) gradually from 1:17 to 1:10 to 1:5 and finally 1:2 . But after i havenīt traded there for a while (last time i used in early februar) it got reset. I just checked it again and itīs now possible for me to open up to 185BTC with a 17:1 leverage
Do you have a link to support this? I cannot speak about the leverage that they offered during the last bubble, but AFAIK they only offer 2.5:1 leverage as of now.
592  Economy / Economics / Re: Any other ways to store value anonymously? on: August 02, 2014, 10:25:35 PM
Simply storing the BTC in a wallet is pretty anonymous.   It starts to be more traceable once you start transacting and sending money around, because there is a path that can be followed if someone is really trying.   If the money is just being stored...it is pretty anonymous IMO

This. If you want to be completely anonymous when making a purchase, mix your coins. There are a lot of coinmixers that barely charge anything to mix your coins for you.
If you are going to mix your coins then you need to be sure that the mixer is somewhat trusted. There are a few out there that are trusted, but are also many scams out there, especially on the hidden wikki.
593  Economy / Economics / Re: Loans in BTC on: August 02, 2014, 10:22:29 PM
BTCjam.com has been doing loans in BTC for awhile where people can do peer to peer lending.   I have never tried it before, and I was just reading how someone made off with a bunch of investor money...but that is always the risk of lending...

Thing is BTCJam only does soft credit checking, it's not actually pulling regulated information to asses someone's risk when being loaned money. If BTCJam teamed up with someone like Experian who offer business services they could reduce a lot of time spent checking IDs, get a more reliable credit score and they even include debt recovery.

The downside to this is that people will bad credit will never be able to get a loan, even if they really can afford to pay it back.

Also the BTC would have to be pegged to USD to avoid problems with fluctuation.

I lend btc on there . I have made a few loans and have been burned once. You can choose to borrow with btc pegged to US dollar or not. As a lender you determine if you want to lend to a pegged loan or not. Reputation loans are a quick turnaround. Some borrowers will do multiple rep builders. After 1-3 loans with a quick payback seem to be the safest for later loans.

Reading what happened in the past in the loan section of the forum, I would never risk a loan with my precious bitcoins.
The probability to be scammed is high and the revenues are too little, I'll stay away from that business.
You need to require collateral to be safe lending BTC on the lending subforum. It is also generally safe to lend small amounts to users who have established accounts (full members or higher) with neutral trust as long as the amount lent is less then what can be made in a month at the lowest paying signature campaign for ~50-100 posts as your could get a trusted member to negative trust someone that defaults on a loan.
594  Economy / Economics / Re: how to mine bitcoin as a business on: August 02, 2014, 10:12:10 PM
Mining in General is unprofitable and will likely not ROI after electricity and the miner is paid for. Even if you get a tax deduction you will simply lose less money but would not cause a profit.

Yes. Yet, most new comers still attract to the mining business.

And the only ones that get more or less constant flow of income are the mining equipment producers. Also, the question is inevitable as to why would they sell mining equipment if they could just mine themselves?
The mining equipment manufactures are mining themselves using the new model machines which are energy efficient, less noisy and tiny. After the new model is launched, then they keep mining with new model and sell out the old model. They grab a lot of profit not only from mining but also from selling mining machine.
This is true, however I consider this to be very unethical. Manufacturers using customer money to build miners and then use the miners for their own profit is very wrong. I think that the customer should receive the bitcoin earned from these machines, less any electricity used.

Regarding ethics, I see no problem here as long as the manufacturers don't change the mining equipment specifications (hash rate before all) and sell used hardware as brand new. If they mine too intensively on the equipment they sell, the difficulty will inevitably grow, and as a result the hash rate of the equipment will not provide enough return, so they won't be able to sell it in the end.
Most manufacturers sell their machines via preorder instead of building the machines then selling and collecting funds. As a result the customer will pay for a miner, the manufacturer will design and build the machines, then test it for 2 months (while collecting the revenue from these tests) then ship the machine out to the customer. Do you see anything wrong with this? I certainly do!
595  Economy / Economics / Re: Where's the BTC investment performance analysis? on: August 02, 2014, 10:04:19 PM
I think that bitcoin is generally too small of a niche to be covered by most "real"/professional analysis. As the market cap of bitcoin increases it will likely be covered by more investment banks, however even then it would be difficult for them to figure out what is an "appropriate" price as an owner of bitcoin would not receive any earnings except for their potential profit from appreciation if/when they sell.
596  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: August 02, 2014, 09:17:55 PM
do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.
The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down
What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.
597  Economy / Economics / Re: Why are indexes Market Cap Based? on: August 02, 2014, 09:06:29 PM
Market cap based Indexes make the most sense. If you were to have an index that measures it's price any other way then it would not be able to truly measure the performance of the companies in the index.

If the index used share price (like the DJIA does) then companies that have a high per share price would have a greater effect on the index then a company that has a low per share price, even if both companies are otherwise exactly the same.

Another option would be to have all companies be equally weighed, however this would make it unfeasible to effectively be able to invest in the index as small companies in the index would not have enough shares available.   
598  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: August 02, 2014, 08:50:48 PM
They've just pulled off one of the biggest land grabs in history, they're hardly going to swap it for empty promises now. No, it makes far more sense to run the economy into the ground and be holding real value when it all starts up again.

Real value are from production. When they law discourage production and encourage speculation, real wealth will eventually leave the country.
What laws encourage speculation? I would argue that in the US the law encourage workers to sit idle (in the form of UI, and other social programs).

It will take a lot longer then 5 years to shrink the Fed portfolio as it has taken them that long to build it up to the level that it is at now, and they would not be able to shrink it to normal levels at the same pace.
599  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar is truly bottoming on: August 02, 2014, 08:41:47 PM
I don't really believe in a dollar collapse scenareo. I think the best scenareo is for fiat to take 50% of a persons saving and Bitcoin or "gold 2.0" take 50% of the rest of the wealth. Duality is everything. There will always be a government in power pushing FIAT into people.

The expected dollar collapse is disadvantageous for all major financial players since it will cause disintegration of global economy with a significant fall in the standard of living throughout the world. What may sooner happen (and is actually happening right now) are currency wars, a condition where countries are competing to get a relatively low exchange rate for their own currency besides other countries' moneys (also known as competitive devaluation).
This competitive devaluation is essentially happening now as most central banks are doing some kind of QE now. I do not however see the value of any major fiat currency spiraling downward as it would create too many economic problems for other countries. 
600  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitfinex: total return swap on: August 02, 2014, 08:39:13 PM
You would have your money tied up for the period of the swap. Your risk is that Bitfinex is unable to unwind the specific trade that your swap is tied to prior to the price declining so much that the borrower looses all of his equity.
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