Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.
I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.
So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?
Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
[00.50]above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
[07.25]$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
[15.00]$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
[27.50]$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
[40.50]$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
[55.00]$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
[73.00]$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
72.5% UP [edited to correct the above bold mistakes] 28% DOWN If you're gonna be a pansy fuck and create a new account just to correct somebody's math, at least be correct about your corrections. |
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(BLAH BLAH BLAH) Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔
Possibly your orders are too narrowly spread apart if you are trying to buy on dip.. And, sure if your are in a BTC accumulating stage then there is another DCA portion of any reasonable and prudent strategy that should just buy BTC whenever .. and not get too preoccupied if you had happened to buy $200 at $45,500 or buy $200 at $44,800.. .. In the whole scheme of things the exact place where you bought should not make much if any difference if you have another $200 coming into your discretionary (to be used for BTC) cashflow in the coming week or so. By the way, I am not sure about from where you are calculating any kind of 10% dippening in our current actual BTC price dynamics. Even if you had bought BTC near our local top of $48,190 from about 3 days ago, our so far max dippening from today has only gotten down to $44,521 which is around a 7.5% dip from the toppening to the bottomening.. The so far BTC price dynamics (including our current dip status) is NOT even really much of any kind of down volatility to write home to mom about, yet. right? Now if you are talking about the future and wanting to predict that we might get down to a 10% or greater BTC price dippening, then that could well be another story.. but that is not how I read your proclamation of having already had a 10% BTC price dip (which 10% dips may well have not even happened yet since we started going up from $29k-ish in the past nearly a month since starting this particular UPpity run, no?.. edit: Whoops, I correct myself.. we had about a 12% dip from $42,500 to $37,200 between 7/31 and 8/4.. but that is our only decently-sized dip, so far in our current price run up) Contemplated throwing in an edit right after posting. I was posting based on Feelings with no fucks given about the actual Maths of the situation. wxa7115 actually called it very close to reality. I had come across some unexpected funds and set it into my dippening orders. Figured $45.5k was likely as low as I could reliably expect to fill, and when posting that exaggerated expression of my girlie emotional moment we were wicking down to $44.5k (Obviously not 10%, but damnit! I could had bigger crumbs!) No, in reality I am much further ahead right now of anything I had anticipated 2 months ago. But on a rainy day filled with red candles, negativity bias can amplify into exaggerated downity. Thanks for reminding me of my Maths & Sciences J1G, but I only had one merit to give and I thought wxa7115 made the more meritable observation. Maybe I'll remember to get you an extra one later... Tired of Red, now where did I put that Green? -Cope |
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Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔
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Awwww! I was waiting for the exact day to post something about the 50 year anniversary of the USA severing the dollar/gold connection and I totally blew it!  Sorry I'm late. ... I think the significance of the Afghan defeat/collapse on the 50th anniversary of the US$ defaulting on gold money should not be understated. ... since the 1971 US$ gold defaults, the fiat Fed. Res. debt notes have been backed by mid-east agreements (Saudis petrodollar support) and projection of US military power in that region. That the US$ has been backed by guns since it is no longer backed by gold is no secret. Well 50 years later it is no longer backed by either gold or guns and projection of US military power in mid-east is basically over now post-Afghanistan. The last refuge for the US dollar/military maybe to use nukes as a final desperate grab to regain military power, but would they stretch that far? Full faith and credit in the corrupt/incompetent clowns inside the Washington D.C. beltway and in charge of the US govt offices is essentially worthless. They make claims about the nukes falling into the hands of people that can't be trusted. Wake up, the nukes are already in the hands of people who can't be trusted to run a booze-up in a brewery. Backing the US$ with a competent government is an after thought for them, as the personally loot everything for all it is worth. This is exactly how empires collapse. This is how the world ends... Not with BANG! But with a "Huh!?!" (Credit: Cards Against Humanity Question) |
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Oh Yeah! They covered it! (with a great big pillow, and held it in place until it stopped squirming...) |
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Building the bluestone pad was about 800 and 100 for the poison ivy treatments.
I was more sore from the poison Ivy then I was from moving 4.5 tons of gravel into place.
I was thinking of just going with concrete pylons and wooden posts. Would you advise against? I have heard with the poison ivy, the best bet is to wash thoroughly with detergent after contact. You need to catch it early though so if you were not aware it may not have helped. I have always knocked out Poison Ivy breakouts quickly with a hot shower, scotch-brite pad and Chlorox Bleach. Itbdries out and heals within 48 hours. Of course if you know you've been into it, you can do the bleach treatment before the breakout begins. Also NEVER put poison ivy in a brush pile to be burned!!! The oils leach to the smoke and go airborne. Easy way to end up in the hospital with poison ivy in your eyes & lungs! |
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Thats funny its the bad actors we are trying to get away from that we are forced to deal with in the current system.
Nothing like main stream reporting to not have a clue.
At this point, mainstream reporting can be regarded as actively malicious. MSM and most of the large international corporations are looking at @ 1.5 BILLION people under absolute control of the CCP. They weigh their options and figure a majority of the other 4/5ths of the population of the world will not put 2+2 together and keep tuning in... but if they go against the clear dictates of the Communist Chinese they will absolutely be cut off from that 1.5B market 100%! Sad fact, although we're all suffering consequences of the CCP's decisions the absolute worst effects are felt every day by those 1.5B Chinese citizens. After the Holocaust we all said "Never Again!"... Really? |
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Presuming that you are building it rather than a premade, since you continue to mention lumber prices.. and sure, I suppose if you order a premade.. they are quoting you based on then lumber prices.
Do you already have your workers lined up, or you building it yourself?
While I have nothing against buying pre-prepared (kit would have been more likely than a premade. Access is tricky), I couldn't find a design that was quite the way I liked. So self-built it is. Wooden boxes are not exactly rocket science after all. Nothing like maintaining symmetry with the neighbor. #nohomo
It may be a little taller  Add YEARS to your investment and save your thumb, Use Coated screws rather than nails! Look into the Ondura corrugated Asphalt roofing panels. Pretty decent look and a helluva lot easier and more durable than shingles. And hell yeah at least 6 inches taller than the neighbors! |
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On the earlier discussion about money not making you happy. I recall a study done where it's not so much that money makes you happy but not having money makes you less happy.  I think the key is to reach the point where you're not worried about money anymore so you can focus on better things in life. But the less money you have, you certainly do need to worry about money. I've been at the lowest end of the scale to well beyond the highest and I would agree. I would caveat this with the fact that though I did not have money (I figured out the many ways to cook potatoes as it was all I had to eat for weeks, and later finding Bar-S hot dogs for $1 and a loaf of bread for $1 could get me through a week of meals) I knew that if things got too bad I could fall back on family. So my level of desperation never hit huge lows. My current goal in life is not about having super cool awesome stuff, lambos, etc. It's about ensuring that the rest of my life I am not in the position I was early in my life. My problem with government has always been that they are the biggest factor in stopping me from ensuring my future through the use of violence. Thx elwar…. I’m very interested in these kind of studies… Good when I have some discussions with some peeps I’m of the opinion Money doesn’t make happy… but it make thing way easier and that’s why it does make people happy Like not have the need of worrying to pay monthly bills, able of going on holidays etc Then comes the point of more money could be better, holidays can go easier more exciting, a bigger car, better house little more luxury things etc Do I need most of gadgets not really but when there is more money then mostly more things are being bought. I can say there isn’t really a lot making me happy these days from gadgets, I do like a nice house to call home and a nice car to drive with…. So money doesn’t necessarily makes one happy but the comfort it can give and taking away some stress points that’s something anyone becomes happy from… Being able of taking my Gf or brother or someone I like on a trip or at a high class restaurant and give them the experience they wouldn’t have … that makes me happy as well So I’m in favor of having more money as less money is a thing that could give join, an important thing maybe is to use it on important stuff as well and not only gadgets … My experience: You can only be worried about money if you have money you don't want to lose, for any reason. No money, no worries (about money). No woman, no cry. Money well gives you security, which again, is not happiness. Well, maybe happiness is sometimes dependent on security. But it's not the same at all. I can say with absolute certainty that NO Money cannot buy happiness... But it can certainty make a nice down payment if your willing to do the work to make the monthlies... |
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Is the infastructure bill FUD over? I try to find infos but cant find much.
Try twitter or maybe even reddit. The bill would be put to work in 2023 if it passes the house voting, afaik. It's not that shocking, is it? Last I heard it was being sent back to Committees in the House and since Congress is going on Recess, likely wouldn't be ready for vote before Sept at the earliest. Surprise, it's just being used to scare the kiddies right now. *Edit: I would post a link, but it was one of the several Podcasts I listened to while driving yesterday, and included interviews with a couple Congressmen from both sides. They weren't discussing BTC though, more about the expiring Debt Limit and the constant Brrrr sounds heard in DC. With Inflation I think the FUD will end up being a wash. |
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....
Just what I got
I'm confused... or did you omit a "not"? (understandable in the circumstances) as in "Just not what I got" ? ah nm.. I already used my guess anyway...lol I'm confused too, and not sure whether I did or not...  |
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  Little game….. Who’s the expert which cocktail on the cart lachen my glass Only one guess is valid … Cheers WO Can't get past the Moscow Mule cup, but there are no Mules on the menu. Is this a cheat? Off menu request? *Edit: Damn Tiny ass Phone Screen! |
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Knock, Knock, Knockin' on Forty-Four!
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 url onlineA maybe difficult update Scooter cruising and just made a passing by picture…. Again, damn xhomerx was fast with Greece already Intentionally obscure photos, but judging by the sea in the background, the landscape, and color of the villas, would that be Corfu? |
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Pump-in-slow-motion in the last 12 hours looks strange.
She's a _real_ hoe Oh the staging like a pro Teasing my forties  #haikuDude...err I mean Eddie, It ain't Sunday... jest sayin' |
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 Small game …. Arrived at my holiday destination …. First to guess where I’m at land and village I will release more pics on daily base …. Looks like Michelin in Amsterdam but that can't be right because you were just there about a week ago and you say you just arrived... |
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So I've been studying the 1m, 5m & 15m charts all morning, and I'm starting to detect a very clear pattern...
It seems to start in the bottom left hand corner of the screen and moves in a fairly straight line at approximately 45 degrees finishing in the top right hand corner of the screen and is made up of nearly uninterrupted green candles of varying length.
My careful research has led me to the conclusion that we might be in an UPpity trend.
(Am I doing this right?)
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Can't... it's 2021 Sir. Noone in Office HAS Principles anymore. 🤷♂️ |
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LoL watching suicide squad Awesome good  Sometimes there could be a BIG ass spike down that many people believe that the draconian legislation is he actually going to keep bad boy down.. including how the silk road bust was considered to be the end of bitcoin.. so our new end to bitcoin has to be something more convincing at least while the crash comes that causes the wreckening of the overly enthusiastic shorting twats... Of course none of us know for sure if there will be: down before up, or up, or up before up, or up before down, or down, or down before down, or sideways...... anyone? anyone?  Ooo, oh I know, I know! The answer is... "ALL OF THE ABOVE"of various degrees of course |
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people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.
Nice little monologue Copetech, and it surely could have been worth a merit, perhaps? perhaps? except for your above lil factual misrepresentation... Might have been innocent.. perhaps? perhaps? but it's not the first time that you have gotten some facts, logic and even conclusions wrong before based on such newbie citteee sloppiness Copetech..but hopefully you will get MOAR better with practice, practice and a wee bit more practice... I scrolled WaY Back to find the posting I was Referring to and may have possibly gotten the referencing mixed up...?
I have told variations of the story with this particular tio several times in this thread, but I had specifically given him $10 worth of bitcoin in 2014 when the BTC price was around $385. I did that through Circle, and they had a feature that you could claw back the gift in the event that the member had not opened their e-mail, which was the case for him, and I clawed it back in early 2016, but he contacted me in mid 2016 when BTC was around $750, and I agree to send him the same amount again, which was like $19-ish. He then bought $300 worth of Bitcoin through Circle and then sold all of his BTC in about mid-2017 (presumably receiving long term tax treatment) for around $3,800-ish.. so he would have made something like $1,800 in profits.. and I am pretty sure that he has been a no coiner ever since...
[Edit Snip Snip]
I already know that I won, but only trying to be charitable to him in terms of providing information if he is willing to receive it, and he does not want no charity, because he is a self-made kind of guy who has some comforts in paying his fund manager to manage his funds that my uncle has lived off for 25 years-ish... .
When I first saw this (shortly after the Rat had been called out on his begging) I took it as previously giving bits of cheese to the Rat... but now looking back, maybe it was J1GUncle that got the cheese? Anyway memory is a very odd thing and creates very different realities for each individual. Maybe I did in fact get my reality confuzzled with your Bot Reality, but either way the overarching point still applies. Treat Rats as Rats and End up with less Stray Cats! |
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