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Wuh OH!
Looks like we're in for a little downtime!📉
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I appreciate having choices and I really appreciate the diversity of this thread. The people here are amazing and the range of discussion is quite stimulating. I do not believe I am being inchoate in presenting any information and have not touched at all upon what I know and don't know. I do think there is a lot more I don't know than there is I know. I think I am confused now, no matter.
Ah! But it's so important to know what one doesn't know! Otherwise we're limited to what one knows, which is quite limiting indeed. However, delving into the unknown with both feet leaves one ungrounded, and prone to being swept into chaotic confusion. So ideally, the way forward is to plant one foot solidly into what one knows while boldly reaching out with the other foot, into the unknown. So if you don't know what you know, and even more importantly, know what you don't know, then clearly you're lost, and should probably sit for a moment and ponder, lest you fall in ignorance. Welcome to the Wall Walt! It's refreshing to see new faces as a Newbie. (Does this mean I get a promotion?) (Edit Words are hard, and by the time you finish editing out all the mistakes, it's easy to forget what you were trying to say...) |
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Crabs, crabs, everywhere.
I think they make a cream for that...? |
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[ edited out to avoid taking whole pages in a single post]
By the way, you do have the ability to go back and fix your quotes of your older posts if you have some old posts that are not quoting properly... I usually catch my bad posts either before I post or soon after posting I might glance back and notice that I messed up some of the quotes... then I just try to fix them as soon as possible.. and even better if I catch them before someone else quotes my bad quotes (and the quoting of bad quotes has happened sometimes, too).
Yea, the quoting of bad quotes quoted badly would be (quote) "Bad" (/quote) Especially on a dumbass "smartphone" with auto-incorrect... |
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phils adding to his farms i see. and man those stacks of (presumably very heavy) boxes ready to fall over and damage the asics? man what a risk. oh yeah to the peeps too. i guess. From what experiences I've had in large shipments of technology, (not nearly that large obviously) Usually comes in palletized, double-stacked, and strapped. As you breakdown the pallets, empty boxes get stacked high against the wall and pallets get stacked outside the dock door. Machines/equipment is assembled and tested and neatly lined up for deployment. Boxes are kept available to repack any damaged or defective units which get shipped back for credit or exchange. Remaining boxes are then broken down, baled, and sold for recycling weight. But all that can wait until equipment is deployed and deadlines are met. Granted my experiences have been with b2b sales and installation of business tech or paper processing equipment, but I imagine that nuts and bolts of the operation would be pretty similar. |
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Dude... I think the garage is full. Might wanna hold off on opening more boxes from China till you can get some racks built. Jest sayin' -Cope |
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[ edited out]
No problem with joking, but the truth of the matter is that hardly anyone here knows you, and therefore the likelihood of confusion becomes pretty damned high - and furthermore, being in the middle of a war or the greatest wealth transfer in history is no laughing matter, even if from time to time we can make some jokes along the way that are not as likely to be misunderstood. Serious question, if it's not too much of an Op Sec violation, what is your primary spoken language? Makes it easier to predict the phraseology that may be misconstrued if I know what you're accustomed to. Personally, I speak American English with a slight southern accent, but I think I am understanding your humor and random grumpy old manishness just fine... trying to nail down the disconnect, ya understand... 🤔 *page break*
So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances...
(And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now)
Fair enough.. glad you are not bringing shitcoins in here any more than necessary because they tend to cause mass headache events in these here parts, kind of like a virus. See, there's that grumpining I was mentioning.... So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount.
Everything sounds good until you get to mentioning the stop... From my perspective, you are overly complicating matters by fucking around with stop limit bullshit because we see it so many times that stop limits are sought out for liquidation and then after you are force sold, the price goes shooting up - You're losing me here, or maybe I lost you? I'm not talking about a "Stop Loss" or any kind of Leveraging... I'm talking about a "Stop/Limit Buy Order" as opposed to a market order. By my understanding it just a means of placing an order at a specific price, higher or lower than the current market price, and as soon as, or rather if the market price reaches that level, the bid is activated and filled if there are any asks on the book at that price. For the small amounts I'm dealing with, I can pretty much rely on my order being filled at the exact limit price I set as long as the market price reaches that level. If I was dealing in larger sums, I may need to extend out to a range limit rather than a specific price, but have not gotten to that level yet. Not only does this buying method give me better exchange fee rates, but it also makes it simpler because I don't have to time the market to the price I want, I just set it and walk away while the market comes to me. [ edited out]
In other words, let's say that you hit your waves 75% of the time, but 25% you do not. Probably you will end up wasting your time at least and losing all your money at worse.
Yea, I think we're talking 2 different languages here. Not seeing where there is any loss? If I hit my lower than market buy points 75% of the time, I am GREATLY increasing the speed at which my Sats are stackening! And if you bother reading forward in the post before you call the other 25% missed...? Is that it? Do you not read the whole idea before you start posting interjections? Do you also spend all your time in a real world conversation thinking about what you're gonna say when the person shuts up rather than listening to what they are actually saying? Not a great conversation strategy that... If your timeline is 10 years or more (and you even said that your timeline is 25-35 years) you don't need to be fucking around. Just stack your sats and don't play around with bullshit. (yeah sure, I know that you are going to do what you are going to do, but this thread is public, so I am not just directing this answer at your seemingly gambling inclinations).
You're right, in the end I'm gonna do what I decide to do, but at the current state of things, I'm not sure I have 10+ years to accumulate a decent BTC stack if I don't maximize the volume acquired by every penny I invest. You like to go back to the same accusatory language about "gambling inclinations" but in this conversation, I don't understand the gamble in setting my buys to aim for the lowest price each week, especially if you've read ahead of your current interjection to see that in this system I am leaving any missed orders in place to catch future coins in a case of big dippening... worst case scenario after a 4 year cycle, if I really suck at reading the conditions and missed to the low side 50% of the time, I have a significant lump sum to dump in at the new low after a parabolic crash. And if I REALLY suck at guessing the lows, you'd think I would have missed to the high side of the weekly lows about half the time and still accumulated a lot of Sats that I would not have gotten if I'd always bought at the higher market price. So where's the disconnect here? Am I misunderstanding the nature of Stop/Limit Buy orders? Or are you misunderstanding the terms I'm using? Or are you just not reading what I typed and assuming I'm just a dumbfuck gambler looking for a get rich quick scheme and therefore in need of pontificating preachery? Seriously, I want to understand. Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement.
If I understand you correctly, you are just fucking around with the new money that comes in, so it is a relatively small amount of your yearly expected investment amount 1/52... so sure, you could run such an experiment for a while and try to figure out if you have a tendency to be able to perform better than vanilla DCAing.
This is the point where I think you have JUST read this for the VERY First Time AS you are putting together your interjections. Didn't I say something about "putting away that high horse" back in the very beginning? *reads back* Yup thought so. So for clarity's sake... Read My Words, Not your Assumptions I am NOT touching ANY coins previously bought, at no point is a Sale ever being entered into the order book. What I am talking about doing is placing my weekly DCA purchases on the order book at the best price I can reasonably expect to actually get that week rather than just blindly saying "gimme this much money's worth of coins right now regardless of current price or direction of movement in the market" So, like this week... price seems to be undulating between 31.5k and 34.5k. I can't be certain it's going to go all the way back down to 31.5k but I'm pretty certain it will be below the current $34.6k. So I'd probably set this week's buy at about $32.8k. Pretty good chance I fill that order this week and if not, there's a really good chance it gets filled with in the next 4 years! Right? So over the course of 4 years, If I'm buying $100 every week and getting those results every week, that's $500 more worth of bitcoins even if it never goes above the $35k range! Where am I gambling?
I will admit that when I was earlier in my BTC accumulation stage, I did used to give my lil selfie a weekly allowance, and that did last for about a year on a regular basis and more sporadically in the next year or so. So, even if I did not play around with stop losses - because I don't really believe in them, but I did try to time some or all of my weekly allowance for dips, to the extent that I had any feelings about how each week would go once my allowance period started.
You do understand what I mean by a "Stop/Limit Buy" right? So by placing stop/Limit orders, I save on exchange fees, and I don't have to spend all week stuck to the chart looking for the best time to buy at market price. I probably still will, because I like watching the way the candles form and checking depth charts to see if I can recognize indicators of how things are moving at different times... but that's just to sharpen skillz, not actually doing any transactions.
So, of course, I am way more inclined to believe that you do not need all that bullshit attempts at trying to stack more sats when there is a system that works quite well already, and since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, you are already in an asymmetric as fuck bet, and way ahead of regular peeps who are likely to be coming into bitcoin in the next few BTC cycles with BTC prices relatively quite a bit higher than they are at any point in this particular cycle..
And quite a bit behind you and many others who had the time and capital to get started on this year's ago when prices were in 3 & 4 digit figures... So yeah,, it looks like it could reach into high 6 digits and by the dreams of some,, maybe even 7 figures, but what if? What if the mass adoptions and corporate interests cause it to flatten out and stagnate in the high 5 figures? What if this is the last 4 year cycle before all volatility settles out?? I want to maximize my value of every meager penny I can currently afford to invest.. And so I'm asking you guys "What holes do you see in this plan?" And you rage about stop losses, leverage, and gambling?? Yea, we agree, but I'm asking about THIS plan... did you read it? [ edited out]
so fucking around with the cycle may end up causing you to invest less. but sure.. experiment with it if you feel that you need to see if you can beat the market with your weekly allowance for the next 52 weeks or however long you continue to employ that strategy.. and sure if your strategy is successful, you can extend it, and maybe you will be ready to share some knowledge with other guys here .. so long as you come up with something that is NOT too overly complicated.
OK, Yes, the remote chance that I really suck at placing Stop/Limit orders could possibly cause me to end up with less coins if the market never goes anywhere but up. Good point and taken to heart. For sure, it is difficult as fuck to just get guys to figure out their own finances and attempt to employ the most basic of strategies, so if you are adding additional complexity, then you surely might be advantaged by that if you really are able to calculate both what you are doing and being honest with yourself in terms of whether you are actually beating a more basic DCAing strategy that is already proven as pretty damned solid and not too likely to devolve into any thing less solid any time soon, especially for guys with a decently long investment time horizon.
OK Yes, I also agree that average Joe Q Public generally sucks at anything that doesn't involve sitting on the couch randomly changing channels and stuffing chips in their mouths until they die too young, too fat, and WAY too broke... not generally the type that succeeds at investing and I'm sure you see more than your share of those coming and going to see what this BitCoinCrypto thingy is all about... I give you some leverage there and understand. BTW, did you read the plan I was asking about? I am married, for 16 years to the same woman. Have my house and 4 cars paid for, no kids, and I'm not excessively overweight or unhealthy. Yea it's a public forum, but I was asking what you thought about the merits of my plan that I'm pondering, not that guys... Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...
I agree.. you should be able to both learn from your system and adjust your amounts or stop loss placements in order to attempt to account for if you are getting better or not... and surely, it could take a whole cycle to figure out if you are good in both a bear market and a bull market and if you really have any clue figuring out which one you might be in and if the BTC price moves in directions that you predict more than it moves against you.. and sure there are probably also ways that you could have a 20% or 30% success rate but still be profitable overall and even beating the DCA approach, if you were to want to use that as a cross-reference.
So you are starting to catch on to what I'm talking about. So going back to my easy figures, 20-30% gains if we're $100/week over 4 years makes the difference between $20,800 invested and $26,000 invested. (Averaging out to 25%) but if we look further into the system and see that all of those missed orders stay on the books and are therefore filled every time the market dips... doesn't it seem like more than 20-30% would end up being filled? Assuming the market continues to behave as it has with volatility and swings up & down of course. If it's nothing but a parabolic uppity climb, sure I may end up with a lot more orders on the books than filled, but in that case, I'd have a whole lot more total value than I'm currently planning for and I'd still have all the dollars in those orders to lump sum in. But yes that's one market case that the system likely fails on and I will have to keep that in mind. but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration, because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.
It sounds good in theory, or on paper, but you might not really know if you are able to do it without practicing, and surely how much value do you want to place in making these kinds of bets remains a discretionary matter.. and you surely would need to try to employ a certain level of humbleness and rational thought to what you are doing, especially the more complicated the system becomes. Duly noted and appreciated.
Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho,
Probably that should be the overall goal for anyone who considers himself/herself to be in BTC accumulation stage... which could last 10-20 years before reaching adequate and satisfactorily accumulation levels that you feel comfortable playing around..,. or experimenting.
Yes! My goal Certainly is Buy & HODL. And all I'm trying to do is increase my odds of buying the most possible with my allotted weekly investment by aiming for the best price and learning to sharpen my aiming skillz. the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.
I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. so maybe it will work for you since you seem to be more than willing to put in the time, attempts at learning, tweakengings along the way and ongoing analysis. Thank You, yes, if I'm gonna do this, I want to dedicate myself to doing it to my very best ability. That's kinda how I roll. Part of the benefits of DCA is that not too much efforts need to be put into it, at least relative to the kind of practices that you are suggesting to employ, so maybe even some system like your might appeal only to 1/10 personas at best, but I am thinking that your system would be have even a lower appeal level than that amongst the regular population - because the overwhelming vast majority of peeps have difficulties figuring out even how much free cashflow that they have on a regular basis and do not tend to project their cashflow out for more than a month or two, so lots of normies (and even otherwise very smart people who have their smarts in other areas/specialties) end up scrambling because they are not really inclined to be spending a lot of time looking at charts and trying to strategize (and if they do, they do not tend to be very good at it at all, even with quite a bit of practicing).
Yup, glad I'm not that guy! 😜 And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree that if you are able to establish a system that works and is better than simple DCA'ing and you are able to share or communicate your strategies clearly in ways that people understand, then more mass following of such a system could bring down volatility - especially if you can figure out ways to punish the stop loss hunters who tend to get rewarded for punishing a bunch of folks who believe that they are smarter than more simple vanilla DCA buy, accumulate and HODL practices. So yea, Mass adoption theories are moot unless I can find ways to simplify and articulate. Good point! Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself.
Of course, exchange risks vary, so not sure if you can account for all of the exchange risks, but sure you can engage in various mitigating efforts and sometimes you can use a couple exchanges, too. Sometimes I will run into one or two exchanges having "short term" difficulties, but other exchanges NOT having such "difficulties", and sometimes such "difficulties can screw you out of keeping your management of your portfolio balanced in a way that you would like... and sometimes you might not even realize some of the level of information sharing that one exchange might engage in versus another one, even though these days you probably should be assuming that your exchange information is being shared in ways that is not really preferable to you. Yea, hadn't thought about diversifying my exchanges, but seems like that would magnify complexity and possibly even increase risk exposure... I think I'll keep my limited faith in the one big one until I see any reason not to.... BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?
I don't have any problems with practicing and trying to figure things out, and surely we sometimes see that some guys get burnt really bad because they seem to be employing good practices, but then they end up devolving into too much gambling or just experiencing some kind of meltdown that goes beyond what should have happened.. because we already know that bitcoin overshoots BIGGEDly and it is difficult to establish a sustainable system that can last even a whole cycle.. so even if some of us guys might give you suggestions in one direction or another, ultimately you have to figure out what kind of balancing works for you both financially and psychology and it might end UP not matching any other guy here.. but who cares, as long as it works for you, then that will be the main point... Thank You for taking the time to read and evaluate Jay, even if you do come across as a grumpy old fuck half the time! 🙃 TLDR: none of us (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite?
And once again, I certainly hope that's true! (#nohomo) (Hopefully quote format worked out better, kinda complicated on a little smartphone) (Edit: I Hate Autocorrect!) |
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Good Call! (Grrr! Blocked images are annoying!) |
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.......
I humbly apologize J1G, ...... I humbly apologize J1G, ...... I appreciate your advisings and impartment of wisdom gained by experiencings. And most of all, I am sorry for my drunken attempts at poking the bear.
Thank You for being you.
-Cope
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oh, and don't be brown-nosing Jay.... it shows wobro weakness, just sayin....  LOL Just because I apologized doesn't mean I didn't laugh my ass off! or that it wouldn't happen again #nohomo(Edit: Emphasis Change) |
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First of all. Your quoting skills suck. You need to go to quoting school for the basics.. and probably use the preview button to verify how your quotes are showing on the screen before you post. I tried to fix your quotes.. but its a bit confusing for me, too.. so I might have not adequately clarified what you had already screwed up. Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...
I agree.. So,... that means you like.it right? 😉 I did not blanketly agree about any of your seemingly complicated approach, and it appears ripe for dangers that I already contextualized in my earlier response. of course, for you particularly, the approach might work in order to satisfy your desires to dabble and attempt to beat the DCA averages.. so I don't have any problem with trying to see if you might be capable of accomplishing that on a consistent and regular basis, even if it seems to be a bit of a fools errand. but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration, because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.
It sounds good So,... yep that sounds positive! 👌 You are coming off as a disingenuine fuck if you are clipping my quotes, because I am not blanketly agreeing to your complexity, but I may well be agreeing that you could give your complexity a try to see if you can accomplish consistent returns.. including doing it over a whole cycle.. perhaps.. or at least saying why your doing it in one part of the cycle makes more sense than doing it in the other part of the cycle. the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.
I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. This all sounds positive! Again. context. I did not give any blanket agreements to what appears likely to be nonsense, but it may just fit your personality or whatever. Good luck to your wife.. she's the one that likely needs it more. And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree . Getting old, Copetech. BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?
TLDR: none of us (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite? Dear God! I Hope Not! #NoHomoYou should not conclude otherwise in terms of anyone here actually caring about you. Thank You J1G for taking the time to read my TLDR ponderances!
Sounds like all systems go, glowing reviews to me! (Which surprises me, for some reason I thought you'd take a more negative stance)
If you are reading and quoting what I say out of context, then there is ONLY so much that I can do in order to save you from yourself... in other words, to the extent that you are genuine, you likely do not want to be saved from yourself. I am having my doubts about whether you are even going to try the systems that you are proposing or to attempt to measure and learn from what you are saying.. you seem to be lacking in discipline, focus and even willingness to sufficiently tether yourself to real facts rather than what you wished the facts were. For example, sometimes if you tweak some kind of seemingly small part of a system because you believe that you are smarter, but you don't even realize that you are tweaking it or what it was for, then you put yourself in way greater danger than if you were merely attempting to be strategic and purposeful about your tweaks in order to try to learn from them. You seem to have way too many areas that you want to tweak and then gloss over the whole matter, which comes off as reckless and gambling, so I really do no have high hopes for your being able to even match DCAing returns over a long period of time, even if you may well be able to match and exceed them in the short term (whether you lie in your reporting or not would be another question. Gamblers like to lie because they will only selectively report which portions that they want rather than really attempting to grapple with the good, bad and the ugly). Even the popcorn shrimp can serve as shark bait.
🙃
This is a public thread, so sometimes it can be helpful to attempt to clarify some matters... even if you might be appearing like you are devolving more and more into a potential lost cause. I humbly apologize J1G, I had various factors come together in the real world (not at all related to bitcoin) which gave cause to celebration, and woke this morning to find a bottle of Vodka had disappeared some time in the night and both my wife and myself were groggy as we woke an hour after the alarms gave up... (possibly all related) That and I just might derive some sick pleasure from winding peoples up and watching them go offBUT! I have taken in all of your ACTUAL evaluation & valid input, and I appreciate your advisings and impartment of wisdom gained by experiencings. And most of all, I am sorry for my drunken attempts at poking the bear.Thank You for being you. -Cope (Edit: Hangovers can't type and autocorrect just makes it worse) (Edited Edit: Ditto) (Sheesh! Third times the charm, maybe now it will be sensible) |
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Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us...
I agree.. So,... that means you like.it right? 😉 but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration, because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again.
It sounds good So,... yep that sounds positive! 👌 the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving.
I agree that in theory that sounds doable.. This all sounds positive! And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom.
I agree WOOHOO!. BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please?
TLDR: none of us (royal us, I suppose?) here gives any shits about uie-pooie more than uie-pooie gives shits about ur lil selfie, amiNOTrite? Dear God! I Hope Not! #NoHomoThank You J1G for taking the time to read my TLDR ponderances! Sounds like all systems go, glowing reviews to me! (Which surprises me, for some reason I thought you'd take a more negative stance) Even the popcorn shrimp can serve as shark bait. 🙃 |
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Someone who was here since 2011 has got to be a whale, maybe even a 'blue whale', unless they were into some "other" stuff early.
It figures.
You could be correct that there are a decent number of 2011-ish forum members who would be whales of some sort.. but gosh I hate to be assuming too much in that direction.... So, according to todays definition of whale, we might be able to 10x or 16x (which seems to be too presumptuous) our anticipations regarding where BTC might go each cycle, so those of us who registered in 2014, would be considered having high likelihood of being whales in 2024, or it does not work like that? We might need our little chart again, for reference sake.  Of course, over the years, the classifications of the fishes and amounts needed for each classification should be changing, no? Do these categories still stand, or does someone want to tweak to make them more reflective of our current BTC price dynamics times? In other words, is 1,000 BTC still required for entry-level whale status? Still a crab oh well I'm confused... I've seen it said over and over that you become a Whale (or at least "reach Fuck U Status) at 0.21BTC. You cannot be serious, Copetech,. Right? Seems to me that currently the 0.21 BTC is a BTC accumulation level that is way more reachable than higher amounts. Yeah, sure perhaps some day down the road 0.21BTC is going to bring you to whales status, and of course, the whale status of the chart may even be outdated, which was part of the reason that I was attempting to get guys to chime in with their perspectives in terms of updating such chart. I had already seen some other charts in which the lower levels of BTC accumulation were divided more, but when I did a quickie google search a couple of days ago, all of the variations of charts were substantively something like the one that I posted. I also doubt that it is accurate to merge the concept of whale status with fuck you status, because I believe that whale status implies abilities to move the BTC market (if wanting to do so) and fuck you status seems to just being able to reach a state in which working for money is no longer necessary and completely optional... or some variation of having more options of not having to work. At this point, I am not sure about how much more elaboration is necessary because you seem to be jumbling a lot of points, and then coming out with a kind of gobbledy-gook assessment regarding what the goals of any forum members might be or how to reach various statuses within your own BTC accumulation. Are you telling me now that my life's ambitions amounts to nothing more than a freezer burned popcorn shrimp??? Lies! All Lies!  Even you know better than that, no, Copetech? Today's shrimp could become tomorrow's whale, but of course, if you are higher within the categorizations, then surely you have better chances of becoming either a whale or reaching fuck you status. I believe that way more people think about how to reach fuck you status, and probably ONLY the narcissist deranged fucks strive to become whales. Of course, it is hard for me to really know because I have troubles spending all of my cashflow, so I do need to UP my game, but I also don't really want to create more work for myself, either. Let's say for example that I wanted to buy a yacht or a plane.. There is work involved in that , no? Not saying that my 0.21 BTC is currently sufficient, but just using that as an example of sometimes spending your fuck you status money can also be a challenge in terms of learning how to do it without causing too much work or psychological issues. ROFLMAO 🤪 YES I was absolutely Joking! ( but thanks for playingalong!International BBS forums bring out the best of my naturally dry sense of humor... or maybe just confuses people, I dunno, but I laughed! *page break* So I've been pondering a new little angle on the LumpSum/DCA/Dippety-Doo-Dah strategy and wanted to see what others think of my ponderances... (And NO it doesn't involve shitcoins, so put the high-horse away for now) So, we take our expected available investment capital & split it into 3 piles blah, blah, blah... then we take the DCA pile and (for reasons of explanation) let's say split it into 52 weekly buys. But rather than making the weekly DCA blind market price buys, take a minute each week to analyze the market using whatever tools we've learned to make a solid educated guess on what the "bottom" is gonna be that week and set a Stop/Limit buy at that amount. Now here's the kicker, once that order is placed, it's placed! Self Discipline! No take backs! Now as we're going along, if we find a point where our expected DCA'd low for the week already has a Stop/Limit order with-in $1k we choose which one we want to keep, and place the other $1k higher, but if $1k higher is higher than current market or already taken we place it $1k lower. Continue this alternating Hi//Low until we find the first available Stop/Limit placement. Now as time goes on, we should be able to use this experience to improve on our weekly analytical skills so our success rate should improve, but invariably there will likely be a number of Stop/Limit orders on the table where BTC's uppity got away from us... but the orders were placed and so they stay! Because as we all know, every 4 year cycle, the parabolic downing returns! But now, this is a point of celebration! Because all those low-balled S/L's between the top and the bottom of the crash get bought up at dippening prices! Then, when all your learned Sciences & Maths tell you that the bottom is in and the long weary crypto winter has begun, it's again time for celebration, because every S/L order that is left more than 30% below your current "bottom" price gets canceled all at once, and you use that new lump sum to buy at the current market price. The "new low" and the cycle starts again. *page break* Now my thinking here is, if the goal is buy & HODL anywho, the stop/limits that are missed and left on the exchange until the next crash are bought anyway, and you should be increasing your odds of getting the best price with each week's analysis... so over time, your tools and skillz should always be improving. And if this strategy spreads, and a bunch of peeps start doing it, it should serve to dampen parabolic Downward volatility as well as adding a booster shot to each extreme bottom. Now, of course, this does put a bit of faith in the exchange, and I know Mt. Gox nightmares abound. But the exchange I'm using is a massive US based, publicly traded, insured company, and regardless of the current condition of our shamwow government, I have to expect that severe regulatory pressure will prevent any cut & run tendency would be minimized, and I will certainly keep my coins & keys transferred to a private wallet every time the value reaches my predefined amount that justifies the transaction costs and exposure limitations. And I have to think the documented Fiat amounts would be much easier to recover than an amount of BTC that has no other documentation outside of the exchange itself. BUT, I'm a Newbie still and just pondering this, so please feel free to shoot as many holes in it as possible... please? |
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Numbers go up... for now. $32900+ My last buy was around $30,500..... so yea, UP |
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Someone who was here since 2011 has got to be a whale, maybe even a 'blue whale', unless they were into some "other" stuff early.
It figures.
You could be correct that there are a decent number of 2011-ish forum members who would be whales of some sort.. but gosh I hate to be assuming too much in that direction.... So, according to todays definition of whale, we might be able to 10x or 16x (which seems to be too presumptuous) our anticipations regarding where BTC might go each cycle, so those of us who registered in 2014, would be considered having high likelihood of being whales in 2024, or it does not work like that? We might need our little chart again, for reference sake. Of course, over the years, the classifications of the fishes and amounts needed for each classification should be changing, no? Do these categories still stand, or does someone want to tweak to make them more reflective of our current BTC price dynamics times? In other words, is 1,000 BTC still required for entry-level whale status? Still a crab oh well I'm confused... I've seen it said over and over that you become a Whale (or at least "reach Fuck U Status) at 0.21BTC. Are you telling me now that my life's ambitions amounts to nothing more than a freezer burned popcorn shrimp??? Lies! All Lies! |
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So my Stop/Limit buy at the lowest price I've been able to catch thus far, brought my total BTC Cost Average up $15...  |
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loyce lump sum is an all or nothing attitude .
why not do a nice 3 way concept.
DCA
Downward ladder
Basement lumpsum
you are good with numbers do all 3 a figure a proper ratio.
say x a week dca
x at 30030
x at 29029
x at 28028
x at 27027
x at 26026
x at 25025
x at 24024
5x at 20020
10x at 19019
some variation of above means you will buy at least x a week on dca and you may never buy the ladder or the lump
but you are doing a 3 way and have all 3 covered.
set up a sell ladder at
x 65k
x 66k
x 67k
x 68k
5x 75k
10x 100k
only use the dca coins for the sell method
twist and tweak a bit and you are done.
I agree with your various points on the buy side, phillip... and so yes, there are a lot of ways to structure and to think about buying BTC that allows the set up to be individually tailorized so that way fewer emotions would come from BTC price movements because the buyer has thought about his/her personal situation and has set up his/her BTC buy strategy in such a way that there is no need to attempt to guess about the stupid-ass (all over the god-damned place) BTC price or to be emotional about what the BTC price ends up doing. That kind of approach of selling too much BTC too soon could result in a kind of nonsense way under-allocation in BTC because the buyer/accumulator is trying to accumulate more BTC but going through that attempt to accumulate more BTC process by selling BTC.. BuhJesus! Edited To Save BBS Real Estate Some Peeps either Has too much time or too many typing skillz! So I get what you're saying, and for many peeps this is SoLiD F'n advice! But here's the thing... a lot of peeps AIN'T most peeps... So I got the first house paid off in full. I got the bug out bag with a month's worth of food, Gold, & Silver. I got the adequate supply of tactically engineered Iron & Lead. And between my and my wife's jobs, we currently make approximately double our current expenses based on our current quality of life requirements, and we both have approximately 25-30 more years of average income years in out estimated life cycles. We also have the 80 acres of rugged mountain land with a solid 1gallon/minute natural spring, fish able stream, and more than adequate woodland, arable crop field, and pasture land to support 10+ people, with a mapped out path from said house in the city to said mountain land w/o ever exiting heavy woodland coverage. We have plans to buy another house somewhere between current house and mountain land that will be more of the kind of place where we'd want to live long term. The current house is being modernized and developed to be a rental property "smart-house" in the city targeted at the single executive or childless professional couple. Debt is at absolute 0 (or rather cards are paid off monthly to keep credit active without ever accruing interest) and wife has a little over $10k left in a completely unmanaged 401k while simultaneously contributing weekly to an active and well managed 401k. End result, if I never made a dime off of BTC and the US$ inflated into cheap kindling... I think we'd be fine. BUT if I can outperform my wife's 401k's in 6 month's time, she has agreed to give me the dormant unmanaged $10k to grow as I see fit. If BTC stays low for a couple more months, then goes parabolic, easy-peasy I win... a missed boat. The 401k will likely crash & burn before I can get any real buy in opportunity and my best bet at that point is to leave it untouched until it recovers enough to be of any use. However if I use my system to maximize gains and possibly even reach a point where I've been able to draw out as much as I've put in and still have significant value to continue playing upward, I will then have an additional $10k and my wife's full support and admiration to play it smart and solid from that point on. You mentioned in a previous post that I should talk more about how my system plays out, but I did talk about it a bit a couple weeks ago and you very much didn't want to hear it. Basically I've chose 3 of the top 10 Alts (shitcoins) and I play the exchange rates against each other to maximize tradable volatility while still focusing on a weekly dollar cost average contribution to my system. All of my buys & sells are at the same dollar amount and that dollar amount is equal to the dollar amount of my weekly contribution. So we'll call that dollar amount a "Lot". I started 3 weeks ago, so I have deposited 3 weekly Lot's into the portfolio's and I also added a lump sum equal to 10 Lot's to get me moving. I currently have 4 Lot's of BTC at a CA 10% below current market value (and we're down right now), 4 Lot's of my Tier 1 Alt coin at CA about 5% over current market, 3 Lots of Tier 2 Alt at +10% and 1 Lot of Tier 3 at +2.5%. Plus I have 6 Lot's of US$ scheduled for BTC buys if the dippening continues through the weekend. So currently I have 18 Lot's even though I have only invested 13 US$ Lot's. 6 of those Lot's are currently in US$ so I have a 7 to 12 risk to reward ratio. If my system blew up in my face right now I could still walk away with 6 Lot's in cash, 4 Lot's in BTC and hope like hell I can somehow recover my 3 Lot's out of the 8 Lot's of Alts. I'm feeling pretty good even though BTC is currently looking like it's on a Downward ladder for the weekend. Now my goal is to reach a 1 to 10 risk to reward ratio and feel confident in the fact that I can go for weeks on end without even thinking about where things stand and still easily pull out every dollar I've put in at a moments notice and have plenty of free BTC to continue growing. At that point I am certain my wife will be ready to hand over that neglected 401k whether we've reached 6 months or not, and I'll probably dive back in to make it grow in BTC but could just as easily decide to put it into another house, or Gold & Silver, or other investment opportunities depending upon how things develop between now and then. At this point in time I feel pretty strongly that I'll be all in on my BTC system, but a lot can change in 6 months... especially when you're thinking forward 25-30+ years. (BTW, while I've been typing my top scheduled buy has been filled for 1 Lot at the cheapest price per Sat I have paid yet, so everything above has changed and it's time for me to go do some more "Math's & Science") *Edited cuz Prooraeding has vulae two... |
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So I bought dip and hodl.
Still have buys at
29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023
Scary how closely our buy points line up! I'm a few dollars over the 500's rather than the even 1000's but playing down to the same bottom. Still in frantic accumulation mode though so I have half as many sell points as buy points starting from $40k up to $48k. Really hoping to see it hit $46 and bounce back down before shooting for the moon, but we'll see. (I want moar cheap corns!) Personally, I do not recommend selling BTC in order to accumulate more BTC until you have already reached or exceeded your accumulation goal. I understand where you're coming from J1G, and you're probably right, but I didn't get started actually investing until a few weeks ago when BTC was at 36.5k. I have been very systematically making small buys & sells of equal dollar amounts of less than $50. Everything has been meticulously tracked with a spreadsheet I designed and with my sweat and tears and various headaches I have managed to grow my total accumulation approximately 45% over actual dollar amounts put in & currently have a BTC cost average of just over $30k. This in spite of the fact that I royally screwed myself and had $0 fiat available for the dip below $30k yesterday. Now is it worth the effort and stress long term? HELL NO! But after a year or more of intense study and developing a system, I wanted to put maximal focus on my system for the first few weeks to prove to myself that I fully understand what I am doing and that it works. Your rants, ravings, and repetitive preachenings have been a tremendous help in my studies and Thank You for staying consistent, but I gotta make my own mistakes. (never over commit leaving no reserves for the sudden dippening! Dum-bass!) <talking to me. Hey Phil, Thank You Muchly for the Generous Merits!!!Maybe one day I can get enough to return the favor... |
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So I bought dip and hodl.
Still have buys at
29029
28028
27027
26026
25025
24024
23023
Scary how closely our buy points line up! I'm a few dollars over the 500's rather than the even 1000's but playing down to the same bottom. Still in frantic accumulation mode though so I have half as many sell points as buy points starting from $40k up to $48k. Really hoping to see it hit $46 and bounce back down before shooting for the moon, but we'll see. (I want moar cheap corns!) |
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OK Guys, That's just CrEePy!!!
That's Wednesday!
Next you're gonna be talking about doing It! Ewww!
Whatever, looks highly bangable to me. Wow! Tough crowd! I throw out 3 highly suggestive puns in a joking manner to try and answer the question without being the new kid on the block piping in with: "Actually that is the actress that played Wednesday Adam's in the 1991 feature length film based on the original B/W 60's sitcom "The Adam's Family"." And it doesn't even get a chuckle? Oh well... And yes, I have to agree she has grown up to be a highly bangable morsel indeed! |
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What does that mean?   First thing that comes to my mind is Hump Day!  OK Guys, That's just CrEePy!!! That's Wednesday! Next you're gonna be talking about doing It! Ewww! |
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... Do you think it will go up, down, sideways, (maybe back in time... 
