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901  Economy / Economics / Re: Federal Reserve launches FedNow instant payment service on: August 01, 2023, 07:31:48 PM
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/federal-reserve-launches-fednow-instant-payment-service-bypass-venmo-p-rcna95380

The U.S. Federal Reserve has launched a long-awaited service which will aim to modernize the country’s payment system by eventually allowing everyday Americans to send and receive funds in seconds, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, the central bank announced on Thursday.

Seems like this could be a good thing for people living in the USA. If I could send money using this thing internationally to anyone why would I need bitcoin?

It seems like the Fed is like... 50 years late to the party, but I guess businesses do take huge advantage of customers if the opportunity is there and this is an attempt to cut out excessive fees that middlemen may be taking. Hopefully it helps to reduce the money grabbing opportunities that banks have, because it feels like they're always trying to jack up prices without their costs increasing or them offering any sort of better service. It's like the fees that phone companies used to charge for sending a text message, in reality it costs them a fraction of a cent but they were charging $0.10 or more in the past for a single SMS, it was pure greed and similar will still be taking place today.
902  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Who is to be blamed, the gambler or the betting agent on: August 01, 2023, 07:21:00 PM
A situation occurred today in my locality,  I have some guys working for me today and suddenly I hard them battling with an issues and when I get close to them to know what exactly the problem is,  and I asked the guy who look strange to me since I am meeting him for the first time and not a worker on the site what his business and why he is distracting the workers from work.

Then the guy narrated his case to be and he said,  that one of the workers came to his betting shop the yesterday to play some visual,  that at first the guy came with ₦‎1,000 in my local currency to make the bets and along the line, he existed the balance but as a regular customer,  the agent decided to allow him at further on credits and in all he accumulated a total debt of ₦‎8,000 because he lost all the bets and since that yesterday he has been on the run from the gambling agent until he traced him to the site today.

So when I wanted to judge the case and possible settlement,  I query the casino agent how can you allow a customer to gamble on credit to the tune of 8k Knowing fully well that the gambler only has a 1k balance which already existed?

Also what is the probability that the gambler will ever return after owning such debt in the betting shops,  note the gambler's daily pay is 2k as a helper on the site,  so he has to work for 4 days to be able to meet that debt that is if he doesn't make any other expenses.

Question is:

What is the possibility of the betting agent getting his money soon/considering the gambler's low-income earnings?

There is a very fine line to walk, but gambling institutions should not be in the business of giving out lines of credit. They should only allow you to play with funds from elsewhere, otherwise it creates a huge conflict of interest and it can drive customers into terrible debt more easily. In reality, the casino in your scenario did not lose anything except the virtual credit that they had extended to the gambler, who had then lost it and was expected to replace it by depositing real cash. It is actually rather shameful and would be unlikely to get any support in the courts of a country where gambling was regulated at the basic level. For example in places like Europe they do not allow you to fund gambling deposits via credit card which is a comparable situation.
903  Economy / Economics / Re: Reason why you will never become rich on: July 31, 2023, 07:53:13 PM
The first reason why you can never be rich is too much  responsibilities, carrying family problems on your head which we all know family problems are always around the corners and can't be totally eliminated. The best help to offer family is to put yourself in a better financial position,  don't struggle to help family,  struggle to put yourself in a better financial position then take away your from dependency. How do you take them away from dependency? If you have a company or business you are running or a connection,  you can connect your family members to your friends let them work for them so that they can earn their own money or you have a business you are running, they can work for you to earn their own money.  As long as their is still dependency they will continue to depend on you and demand from you.

The second reason why you can never become rich is not knowing how to use money. There are several ways money can be use :  spending,  savings,  and investing.  Many of us already know about spending and even when we spend we spend on things that are not really needed but just to impress people who don't care about you.

Buying liabilities,  things that doesn't have value five years from now.  Many save but even when money is saved,  it is done to spend and not to invest and the only way to become rich is to invest and not by savings.  So , invest in assets and not liabilities.

It depends how you define "rich" really because to many people that can mean more than money. However even if we are just talking about money then it is all relative, some people can get by on a much smaller amount than others, even if they live in the same area, because of the lifestyle they lead. I've seen people waste vast amounts on leased cars and overpaying for "luxury" holidays, where they could have made their money go a lot further with a bit of planning. With the right financial strategy anyone can become comfortable if they've got an average size job and are able to cover all their bills with a bit to spare. However it requires investing and adding a level of risk to your money, which many people find too uncomfortable.
904  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Casino Slot Streamers on: July 31, 2023, 07:14:00 PM
Here I found a list of Top 10 Casino Slot Streamers which includes Corinna Kopf ,Tyler Faraz Niknamm, Flávio Fernandes and many others.

Do you guys follow the casino streamers and are they fun to watch? Or do you think that playing casino slots yourself is more fun?

While these streamers may earn a good amount of money through streaming, they sometimes may become inspirational to the gamblers which may lead the normal gamblers to gamble more or become addicted too in some cases.

Thoughts Huh

It's really baffling how people can follow and watch these sort of streamers, because there is zero element of skill involved in what they're doing. The vast majority will be sponsored once they reach a certain level, and by sponsored, I mean there balance will be sneakily topped up by the casino and they will also likely have their winning rates manipulated to give a false impression. Casinos stand to make huge amounts of money by tricking new customers into depositing with them, so targeting streamers with large audiences and getting their viewers to convert into players will make a lot of money. I can understand watching streamers of action packed games, but this seems like such a boring thing to watch.
905  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic problem, why is fiat difficult to hold. on: July 31, 2023, 07:05:33 PM
Why is money at hand difficult to hold? I usually find it difficult to keep track of money anytime I have cash at hand, I make plans to hold money, but It never stays because something always demands the money, it is even so bad now that money kept in my account is also now being affected due to expenses. This is not something that happens to only me, I know that because of how money can easily be spent, many people now decide to avoid having cash, avoid taking ATM cards from their banks and also avoid activating USSD or internet banking, but is that really a long term solution? I blame myself a lot for spending so much and being irresponsible with money, but in your opinion, do you think that the soceity is contributing to the high and many expenses making money not to stay or is it just a bad habit I have?

It's a bit of a dumb message, because 95%+ of the world are still transacting with fiat cash and electronic payment methods every single day. It sounds like you have a personal finance problem that you are projecting on to others, when a little bit of financial education could answer many of your questions. Taking steps like budgeting for the future and moving money into savings accounts are simple steps that the average person can take to benefit long term. We're now seeing savings rates at some banks paying 6%+ which was unthinkable a couple years ago in the era of 1% central bank interest rates. Many people are happy with fiat currency and will continue to use it for a long time simply because it is most convenient, plus backed by governments.
906  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Healthy mindset to save earnings from gambling on: July 31, 2023, 06:54:31 PM
Usually, people who win in gambling but not able to cash out or save their winnings and I think this has something to do with a Healthy mindset.
If you do not have the intention to save the wealth, you will lose all your winnings by risking them again in another gambling bet.

Only a mentally strong person who has control over emotions and have money management skills would be the real winner here and will become rich eventually.

The sort of people who play the lottery can be quite distinct from other types of gamblers, they may not even see it as gambling in the traditional casino sense of the word. That sort of person may have a better level of financial control and be less impulsive, or susceptible to throwing away all their winnings. There's also quite a big difference in potential outcomes, if a casino player is lucky on a slot game, they might walk away with $1,000 in winnings after betting $2. If a lottery winner bets $2 and gets back $2 million, they are less likely to buy lots more lottery tickets afterwards or it will have a negligible effect on their new found wealth. I think it'd be fairly easy for a lottery winner to walk away from gambling forever after that point and be very happy.
907  Economy / Economics / Re: The Vulture "Economist" on: July 31, 2023, 06:50:29 PM
Mr. Adam grew up believing that to be rich, he must save and be a miser. So he started saving. Even when he needed money for an immediate and urgent need, he would rather beg from friends and relations. And since he was homeless, his money was always in a pouch tied to his waist. Unfortunate, he fell sick one day and was taken to a nearby clinic. Those who took him there were burdened on how to raise funds for his treatment, and finally did. They paid $718, and left. The sick man woke up from his sleep, asked for friends and was told they were gone. Luckily, they bought some foods and grocery for him. He cried joyfully and prayed for them. Then, he saw a piece of cloth on the floor that immediately struck his attention. It looked like something he has seen before. 'That looks like my pouch, yes, my pouch' he said. He searched for his saving pouch that does not leave his waist but could not find it. He yelled at the nurses, and questioned how his pouch came off him. An elderly man who was on a bed next to him told him how one of his friends that brought him in noticed a protrusion from this trousers, reached out for it and saw money inside. Through the money, they paid for medical bills and groceries.
Mr. Adam screamed " All my savings gone? Who asked them to bring me here?" Does this story strike any memories in you? It does right?
You fooled your colleagues back in junior high school to buy ice cream with their transport fare promising to "lap" them when going back home, but failed. You rode, they trekked.
You went with a group of friends to a restaurant to eat, and when it was payment time, you sneaked out to the bathroom came back but they were all gone telling the waiter that you were going to pay once you come back from the bathroom. It was payback, they said and laughed off.
What's your story?


You're asking for stories on how people ripped off and took advantage of their friends? No decent people do such things, especially over their whole life as your story suggests. You're not a very nice person if you do such things and I think the moral of the story was actually something different. It was that this man put wealth before his health, he would rather have died a rich man than have the money he had been saving spent on helping him get better. Some people are like that and there is no point being a rich old man, as you get the best years of your life when you are young. It's harder to explore and enjoy lots of activities when you get older, so make the most of life now.
908  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A weird belief among some gamblers. on: July 30, 2023, 08:24:45 PM
There's this scene I witnessed today at a local sport betting house  and I found it very funny and unbelievably true at same time. A certain young man after making his predictions placed his bet and his betting slip was printed to him then another gambler in the house approached him and asked to make a rebet of his games for himself but I was shocked when the young man refused with the excuse that he doesn't share his predictions that sharing it will make him lose his bet. More like having his luck to win reduce or changed maybe because the person he shared his games with could be someone with a bad luck on that day.

Although I have heard of behaviors like this with some gamblers  but I never believe it not until I witnessed it myself today and it was weird to me imagining how you will get to lose your bet by allowing someone else rebet it. In all my years of gambling I believe that a game prediction that will play as predicted will definitely play not regarding the number of people that bet on same prediction.

So why this belief or do you think it could be true? Or is it one of those superstitious belief among gamblers?
Do you feel cool sharing your predictions with other people and how has the outcome been looking at all the times you have shared your predictions with others?

This seems highly odd and I don't understand how it could be true. Why would one random customer walk up to another random customer to steal their betting ideas? Everyone in that setting is trying to beat the system and think they are capable of outsmarting the bookmaker odds, so to copy another player makes little sense. Was there some sort of knowledge that this person was good at picking winners? You might as well pick a bunch of random odds and you'd probably achieve the same outcome. Copying someone elses bets is just symbolic that you have no ability to pick winners by yourself and should be nowhere near a place where you can gamble your money away.
909  Economy / Economics / Re: The gloomy light called subsidy. on: July 30, 2023, 11:58:09 AM
There are lots of things as citizens that we've enjoyed especially when it comes to essential things that government of our various countries have subsidize.
For some countries, government has helped in subsidizing food production, electricity, education,  transportation, health care services etc.
This subsidy goes ahead in reducing financial burden on the citizens.

 for some it is one way the government has helped them directly, because government gives them grants to support their businesses.
So I ask, what will happen if the government remove subsidy from some of the essential things that they helped citizens to subsidize, for example, fuel, electricity, food production, health care services etc.

Because I leave in a country, where the subsidy for PMS(petrol) has been removed, and almost immediately, the citizens are feeling the effect of the petrol subsidy removal.
The shocker this singler act has sent to the  spine of the economy of my country is second to none.
At this point, I've realised that, subsidy is one gloomy light that shouldn't be dimmed further  by any government.
Cause what other better ways can the citizens benefit from her government if subsidy is taken off from those essentials that directly touch the standard of living of the citizens.

What do you think? Is government removal of subsidy from essentials products, services at this period of economic hardship people are facing the best policy a  government can embark on in the process of building her dwindling economy?

Subsidies can be very helpful as long as they are engineered correctly and generally set up to last a specific period of time. The thing to look out for is malicious arbitrage which can occur when certain actors will take the subsidized product and resell it elsewhere at much higher rates, to the detriment of the government and the originally intended beneficiary. If it's funded in the right way, for example from a slice of the richest it can be helpful in balancing out things like poverty. However people naturally try to personally gain from such regulated markers, so it requires constant vigilance and regular tweaking.
910  Economy / Gambling / Re: Using ToS against users normal? on: July 30, 2023, 11:52:05 AM
Changing of terms and conditions without notifying the users or gamblers is normal with online gambling websites? Then when you did something wrong or about to withdraw your money they will tell you that you don't read their terms and conditions, and you start arguing with them until you decide to read the ToS again and you find out that it's different.

Some gambling websites consist of wicked owners that willingly plan to defraud their users using the ToS against them, or is this normal? Have such happened to anyone on this forum before?

A terms of service is a contract, in this case between the casino and the player. The terms of service is in all cases I've seen, very prominently linked throughout the site. The player also has to indicate in most cases, that they've acknowledged and agree to adhere to this set of rules. That seems perfectly fair to me and you seem annoyed that people are held to the promises that they make? Often the terms are there to make the relationship simply defined because things have been abused in the past.
911  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: You must do this if you want to QUIT or NOT on: July 28, 2023, 06:05:18 PM
Things we must do to stop gambling according to experts:
Quote
1. Recognize the problem
2. Remove the stigma
3. Confide in a love one
4. Seek professional health
5. Adjust as needed
Source: https://www.forbes.com/health/mind/how-to-stop-gambling-expert-advice/

Now, if you still want to gamble but you don't want to become addicted to it, one of the things you should do in my opinion is:

1. Only set aside an amount of money that you will use to gamble in a casino.
2. Don't think that you will gamble to make money, because if you do that, you will surely have a problem later.
3. Just spend a few hours staying in a casino to gamble so you can avoid what you don't realize is wasting time that you should be spending on important things instead of gambling.

Remove the stigma? That is beyond the control of any (unskilled) gambler. You definitely need to talk and be open about your problem, however the better thing to do would be ban or remove yourself from any scenario where you end up near a place of gambling. Maybe take a week or two holiday to a different destination when you've decided to quit, so you can get used to the separation and habits that you may have formed over a long time. That is a really important step to take and one that you can fully control.
912  Economy / Economics / Re: Bad impact when You carry out Online or Offline Loans on an ongoing basis on: July 28, 2023, 04:29:06 PM
maybe many people are taking loans online or offline for various urgent reasons, but keep in mind that the habit of making loans will only get you entangled with what is called eternal debt and the possibility of getting addicted to making loans online or offline

I live in a city where the rate of people making loans is quite high until yesterday I heard of a neighbor who was fighting with a debt collector because he was unable to pay but the debt collector belittled the borrower who was unable to pay

- 23-yr old techie dies by suicide due to alleged harassment by online loan recovery agents

There have been many articles written about the bad effects of making online or offline loans what happened in my country that have high interest;
- In Indonesia, ‘pay later’ services leave some drowning in debt
- Under presidential order, Indonesia is at war with online loan sharks

in several articles, there are other options that can be done to avoid what are called online or offline loans that have high interest,
- 8 Ways to Help Family Members in Financial Trouble
- How To Get Out of Debt

you can try to do that from now on before it's too late

If you go by what one of the richest men in the world and arguably the best investor in history says, you should avoid taking loans/credit for anything except a low rate long term mortgage - where the value of the asset can actually outweigh the loan over the long term. Besides that, far too many people borrow money when they would be much more responsible if they saved up before buying the thing they want, which will probably depreciate at a much higher rate.
913  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Deposit limits on: July 27, 2023, 04:48:49 PM
This is how it is on gambling sites:

Quote
Many of our customers use Deposit Limits to manage their spending. Limits can be set for a 24 hour, 7 day or 30 day period and cannot be overridden

You can decrease your Deposit Limits at any time and this will be applied immediately.

Before increasing your Deposit Limits carefully consider if you can afford to do so. Never decide to increase your limit because you have lost money and think that you will win it back by gambling more. If you wish to increase a limit you will need to wait 24 hours before we action your request and then return to our site to confirm that you still want to increase it.

I quoted it from a gambling site.

This is just an evidence that their is nothing called deposit limit. Assuming you set it to 7 or 30 days and you set it to $100. Once you bet and lose the $100, you can wait for 24 hours to increase it above $100.

Without discipline yourself, you will increase the limit and gamble more. I have been into gambling for many years, this is one of the problem I have faced before.

But for people that gamble daily, setting a daily limit can be helpful. It is the only one that is useful.

It's actually rather helpful to have these sort of restrictions in place, because unlike your claim i feel it's a big help. Gambler's often suffer from short term thinking, which means they are susceptible to losing a bunch of money and wanting to "earn it back" right away. This sort of filter makes it difficult to get carried away, because the impulse vanishes when a forced break is imposed and rational thinking can return after a break.
914  Economy / Economics / Re: Connect data to accelerate cashless payments on: July 27, 2023, 03:55:22 PM
Cashless payment has become so popular and is gradually becoming a habit of many consumers, like last weekend I went to a market in a rural area when I saw that there were very few ATMs around, but surprisingly, the sellers there accept online payments, and the real amount is only about $2 for some fruits. I'm impressed with them because it's still a poor area and payments are mostly cash, but the way they're approaching the changes in the world is still unrestricted.

In recent years, especially after the outbreak of the disease worldwide, the shift of people to payment via Internet channels or mobile phones has increased both the number and value of transactions. In the digital age, data can be used to understand and capture customer behavior and consumption trends, helping banks and businesses identify new opportunities and make the right decisions. and improve operational efficiency. Regarding the role of data in the operation of the banking industry, connecting data will help banks gain insights into customer behavior, helping to cross-sell products. In addition, the full data connection contributes to preventing fraudulent acts, enhancing information security.

Although this is a rather small issue in terms of personal experience, it is undeniable that it is the direction of future development in the new era, what do you think about this issue? Although I know that not everywhere has enough conditions to be exposed to changes in technology, finance, new knowledge, ... but what I am paying attention to is that it is more convenient for life. In life, there are problems that will come to universalize it but over time people do think we will use less cash.

It's the only way the world is moving right now where you can accept a wide range of payments via phone based apps and the wireless RFC technology that comes with most modern phones. It's gradually going to mean that even more cash payments will change over and they will eventually phase out paper & coin based currency. It will actually save a whole bunch of waste that is involved with transporting the physical currency around and keeping it secure, however we need a backup in case these electronic systems get attacked.
915  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling should be play with care on: July 27, 2023, 03:33:11 PM
People don't have statistics to play gamble and that is why some of the gambling enthusiasm do experience (shege in gambling... meaning much loses in a gambling) so it's good for gamblers to know a specific amount that should go out in their wallet weekly or monthly.

When you check the statistics of who is on constant gambling of different kind of gambling either casino, poker game and other gambling games, should check the funds that goes out of them monthly because of gambling and they funds they received in a month and annually in gambling if they are of the same amount.

If we planned our gambling bet we should not be going crazy after when we have not meet up our target in gambling, what i expected every gambler is to make table of how much should be spend in gambling and how much should go investment, because money we loses in gambling continuously if we gather it together it will sum up to start a little business. I'm say play gamble with experience, don't use all you have for casino gambling

Gambler's by their very nature are often not particularly good with maths or finances, which is why they end up taking huge risks that they don't understand. This means that bankroll management is no existent and try to encourage it is futile. Gambling that does not involve calculated odds like poker is destined to fail in the long term and unless you take the effort to understand the systems in place, then no amount of wallet management will be able to offset that. The best thing players need to do is control their losses as you say, because losses are inevitable.
916  Economy / Economics / Re: Helpful mineral resources on: July 27, 2023, 03:28:31 PM
Africans are blessed with a lot of minerals that if this resources are gainfully used for benefit of their citizens, this God given resources would add colours to Africans. Countries in Africans like Nigeria, Serial Leone, Ghana, kenya, south Africa and lots more you will a lot of natural resources either misused or abandon by government and even if they see need to use them, is either abused or mismanaged. Petrol in Nigeria till today is been refined outside country and still import back to Nigeria on a high price, lots of minerals like coals, salt, kerosene, gas, petroleum and so on but no appropriate handling of this resources, so even the citizens can not benefit from it. If Africa can make use of their resources well, they will be more independent, free from indebtedness and indirect colonial system of other countries.

The trouble with Africa is that corruption has been deeply ingrained for many centuries and now the leaders are currently composed of those who could play the dirtiest game. Naturally corruption filters downwards as well and like a disease it spreads through the whole ecosystem. It takes strong institutions and judiciary, which take decades and centuries to build, to create any independent thought or opposition. Unfortunately at the moment any potential wealth will be squeezed into the hands of the few.
917  Economy / Gambling / Re: Without money, does it still qualify as gambling? on: July 26, 2023, 04:48:52 PM
Have you heard of Superpicks on DSTV? where you can make predictions and win money without staking your money?

My question is can it still be called gambling if it is not played with money?

While technically it could be called gambling, it's definitely not in the same league as risking real money on a bet. With virtual currency, that has no exchangeable value, you can never judge the quality of your opponent and their betting patterns almost become meaningless - so it's hard to improve or derive practical knowledge if your intention was to convert to paid betting later. As the person placing the bet, you will be more likely to take time and think through your betting strategy when real money is at risk.
918  Economy / Economics / Re: Japan reaffirm Web3 plans on: July 26, 2023, 04:42:48 PM
In a webX conference held in Tokyo, Japan, the PM, Fumio Kishida reaffirmed the country's desire to foster the Web3 industry, stating his plan to transform the internet and bring about social change.

In early April of 2023, Japan's ruling party's web3.0 project team published a white paper that highlighted the government's appetite to participate in the Web3 world.
Well it looks like Japan is more interested in embracing Web3 in the hopes to compete with China economically.
Also, Japan became the first country to recognize and accept Bitcoin as a legal mode of payment in 2017 and has created a friendly environment, making it one of the leaders in exploring the use cases of the Blockchain technology, so this could also help in moving

In light of this, Binance have offered to open up it's services to crypto users in Japan under the local exchange platform, Sakura Exchange Bitcoin which was acquired by the company in 2022.
Changpeng CZ Zhao praised Japan's innovation friendly approach to the sector, labelling the country as a leader in the Web3 regulatory environment.

This approach of the Japanese is quite a surprise, considering they are a nation who have had a frustratingly, over cautious step to financial development.
What do you guys make of this?

There is not even an exact consensus on what "web 2.0" exactly consists of right now, so mentions of web 3.0 seem like a complete gimmick. Politicians love to act like they are at the cutting edge of tech, because it makes them more relatable with younger audiences, however they often change such plans after getting elected. The fact that binance is supposedly involved could also lead to a dead end because they are being pursued by US regulators among others. Essentially it's a vote gaining exercise.
919  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Greed can cause a lost bet, (true or false) on: July 25, 2023, 06:22:38 PM
Last 2 night I signed up to an online bet called betking (become a KING) and I bet a virtual stake with 1700 naira to win 1,438,540.92 naira, but the game was lost and the bet that made it to lost was the last one I added, before I added the last one that made the winning to be this amount, I was having double thoughts like should I make the winning a random figure 1.5 million or I should stake it at 1.3? But out of greed I refused to bet the game at 1.3 and I added the one that lost the bet, what a pity?
Greed is one thing that gets some game lost, the stake we are supposed to win out of greed we add another that get the game lost.
Out of my own experience I have learnt my lessons, but I don't believe that this opportunity might ever come again because I don't bet often, on a second thought this my story is what makes some people put more interest on gambling.

It sounds like you're trying to describe the martingale strategy without actually knowing it's name or maybe I misread your opening sentences. Either way, you have zero control over the outcomes of these bets, all those flashy buttons and virtual levers that you think can be manipulated in a way to guarantee a win - do not exist. The owner of the site has all the power and the reason they created the site is to empty any deposits you've made into their own pockets. You may have random pockets of luck, but that's all it is, they need you to win occasionally because it keeps you depositing more or you'd just leave and they lose a source of extra income. It is all about greed, as you say.
920  Economy / Economics / Re: Has everyone become too pesimistic about the economy? on: July 25, 2023, 06:18:19 PM
I'm a pleb like most of you, and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come. But has anyone ever considered that,

- The economy is not going to crash into a recession
- That there will be an actual soft landing
- That the Russia - Ukraine war will not escalate into a European war
- That Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto
- Institutional investors will come back and take Bitcoin to six digits

I'm probably missing more narratives, but you get the idea.

Traditionally, like many things in life, the economy works in cycles and has fairly consistently followed certain patterns throughout history. The advent of the internet and globalization may have slightly shifted how that works now, maybe resulting in shorter slumps that recover quicker but everyone can make the wrong assessments when times are good. The financial crisis took many years to build up, hidden in the background, before it created the biggest shocks to banks in history. The thing about recessions is the causes are never the same as the last ones, so they are hard to pick out and decipher where the next shock will come from. Maybe it will be triggered by an escalating war, maybe there will be an earthquake somewhere important to global supply chains - no one knows.
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