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1021  Economy / Economics / Re: 85% of AI start-ups will fail within 3 years. on: June 18, 2023, 04:35:37 PM
This is an opinion piece. 85% of AI start-ups will fail within 3 years. Link to article. That's what they have said. But what do we think. We use the internet everyday and may even be using one or two AI tools to help us become organized, productive and efficient. Hundreds of AI start-ups are spring up everywhere everyday - while some are jumping in without due diligence some, some are doing it for the money while some others what to make an impact. The AI startups boom is compared to the dot-com bubble where a lot of them failed. Some AI start-ups are: Open AI, Frame AI, Jasper, Drafter AI, Smartly.ai.
What do you think, are we experiencing an AI startup boom like the dot-com bubble? And do you think that 85% of them will fail within 3 years?

I'd say that this in basically in line with the ratio of all new businesses that fail within the first 3 years and that it's more likely to be 95%+ of businesses in the AI field that will fail in such a short window, mainly because of the huge overhead costs that are required to sustain this type of business. Working with AI is not cheap, it requires a lot of computing power and storage for data, before you even start to create the more sophisticated algorithms to work from that data. Every 2-3 years there seems to be a new trend and buzzword of the moment that people go towards and the venture capitalists are equally susceptible to falling for these grand ideas that very few are able to conquer.
1022  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Categories of Unrealistic Sports Betting Expectations on: June 18, 2023, 04:29:01 PM
We encounter different categories of sports bettors every day, both online and offline. However, some of them express unrealistic expectations regarding their potential winnings.

The first category is composed of sports bettors with a $1000 bankroll who hope to make $100,000 by the end of the year. In what universe do they think this is possible? Such expectations are unrealistic and only occur in the lottery, not in sports betting. Even in sports betting, it would be a chance occurrence, happening only once in every 100 bets. A more realistic expectation would be to aim for increasing their bankroll.

The second category consists of individuals seeking guaranteed wins and fixed bets or matches. These individuals are frequently seen on platforms such as Twitter, Telegram, Discord, and others where sports betting is discussed. They are often the first to express their desire for guaranteed games and fixed matches/bets, believing they will surely win. Unfortunately, these individuals are easily scammed due to scammers taking advantage of their gullibility.

What other categories of unrealistic sports betting expectations have you encountered?

In general there are so many "tipsters" out there who claim to have super high win ratios, but in reality you'd be lucky if they made 51% of winning bets in their portfolio. There is a lot of fakery out there, where people claim to predict certain outcomes but if you dig a bit deeper, you find out that they actually "predicted" results after the outcomes were realized, or simply that they hype up their wins while ignoring their loss ratio. Many of these people will be asking for money in order to access their tips, but that is where they really source their income. If they were genuinely profitable then they would have no need to create such a side venture as selling profitable ideas, they'd just use them.
1023  Economy / Economics / Re: What to do with all guy who loss money to stock market on: June 16, 2023, 03:26:52 PM
What to do with all guy who loss money to stock market

They are all promised to have retirement, stable and passive income, happy ending, fast car, fast house, fast woman, big fat profit, millionaire, high risk high return. Some of them got into big loan and loss everything, while they are still having to pay their loan. Are they gonna get a refund? The broker tell me stock market would make a come back again, it is just a cycle thing, technical correction, everybody would get their refund when market come back again. Now is the best time to buy low, when they market come back, it is your chance to retire young retire rich.

I told broker this is snake oil, and it is over. He respond it is not, you see, everybody too is doing this shady business, everybody doing it, you know, ape together ape is strong, when ape is strong, police is weak, law enforcement is weak, they can't fight the ape when ape together. Smiley

It's like anything in life, you have fools that think that easy money is in reach by doing very little work. It's what keeps millions of people playing the lottery every week, even though the odds of them winning are absolutely tiny and unlikely to ever happen even if they had a hundred lifetimes playing every week. There is money to be made in the stock market, but the real pros know that low risk, low return is the only way to earn steady, otherwise you have to do a lot of research and even then you can be taking on huge risks if you're trying to double your money in short periods of time (which you have to do many times to make a big fortune).
1024  Economy / Economics / Re: Will chatgpt really destroy the job market? on: June 16, 2023, 03:12:18 PM
Since ChatGPT was launched in November last year, this AI technology has created a huge response across the globe.  This technology has gained so much popularity that people are using this technology in almost every field. Any math can be easily solved through this technology, any unknown matter can be easily known through this technology, so there is a lot of doubt in everyone's mind about this technology that this technology will destroy the job market or not? 

When asked about this, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the technology will never destroy the job market. Rather, this technology will solve things that people never know about.  Since all tasks can be solved easily through this technology, this bot system may be used instead of humans in various work fields. 
If this technology is used in the workplace, many people will lose their jobs.

It's definitely an unknown at the moment, but sometimes predictions are massively overblown and they do help to sell advertising space next to the opinions of the most controversial writers. Much like NFTs were claiming to revolutionise the way that people licensed and used images, the reality is that an absolute ton of money was wasted on this nonsense that has since imploded. Chatgpt definitely has much more practical usage but it's benefits could easily be overstated and the transition could be a lot slower than anticipated. It will certainly help in things like customer service work, chatbot type activity and broad data analysis.
1025  Economy / Gambling / Re: Gambling addiction causes ear deafness? on: June 16, 2023, 03:08:51 PM
It's easier to get addicted to online gambling, but I recently met someone who said that he isn't even aware that he was an addict until his blood brother told him that he is going too deep into gambling.

He said that he screamed to him to wake up scarily, he said his brother is his savior, but I replied to him that he is someone who listened, most gambling addicts that I have came across have closed ears, they won't listen to you when you try to warn them or advice them.

Have you meet gamblers that are going way too deep into addiction and you try to stop them and they listen? I've never accomplished that before.

They always behaved deaf, like some spiritual power is in control.

It's strange to associate deafness with gambling when it's much more likely to be triggered by other causes. I find it hard to think of a scenario where somebody could be playing casino type games for that long and at that high of a volume that it would cause this to occur. It definitely made me think of the trigger noises that casino's often use to keep players alert and chasing "reward" type sounds as they are playing along. There might be some bigger issue at fault though if someone is so focused that they're blocking out external sounds.
1026  Economy / Economics / Re: Retirement Age for Workers - Does this Make Sense? on: June 15, 2023, 05:25:03 PM
Quote
France's Constitutional Council on Friday approved an unpopular plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, in a victory for President Emmanuel Macron after three months of mass protests over the legislation that have damaged his leadership.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-retirement-age-raise-64-approved-constitutional-council/


This so-called measure has several benefits and drawbacks. The elder employees can benefit from their years of experience if they are retained on the job for longer, which is one advantage. The drawback of this is that many workplaces will report low performance because there is an inverse relationship between a person's success at work and their deterioration in cognitive and physical capacities.

Regardless, what I think is that the government shouldn't shove it down the throat of people. Workers who are approaching retirement age should be given a choice after appraisal to keep working or retire.

What sense does this make? Would you agree or disagree?


The government isn't shoving anything down the throat of people, they're likely trying to keep the books balanced. People live longer now than when these pension systems were first developed so it's only normal to increase the age. In reality you are free to retire at any time you want, but you need to accumulate enough assets to support yourself in that endeavour. Nobody is being forced to retire in any country with normal laws, many businesses allow people to stay on for as long as they like and are competent enough to complete the job they are paid to do.
1027  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ambivalent attitude to gambling on: June 15, 2023, 05:19:53 PM
Gambling has been a widespread form of entertainment for centuries. I Googled how many people gamble and on the first site they write that about 1.6 billion people around the world gamble. And this is almost 20% of the world's population.

What do you think? Why is there such a different attitude to gambling products and will it ever change?

It feels like gambling has become much more normalized in recent years and accessibility has improved greatly as well. However the numbers quoted seem a bit high, it's possible that around 20% of the world's population might gamble each year if you include fairly benign activities like the lottery, but 4+ billion seems highly inaccurate. If you look at America, which often has the largest amount of money sloshing around in entertainment activities, they have been increasingly legalizing gambling state by state - as they see the money the Las Vegas and online gambling can bring in taxes.
1028  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Advice when you are going a bit far in gaming and betting on: June 14, 2023, 05:35:06 PM
This is just the basics, but anyone should be aware of it:

Budget: set it BEFORE you start gambling and stick to it.
Have a break from time to time, it is important to let your brain stop and consider.
Avoid drugs / drink as much as possible, they will make you loose some control innevitably.
Seek help if you feel you are no longer in control. Make a phone call to a friend or go out and speak with someone.

Anything else anyone can think of? Like... read this post before gambling? Tongue

Unfortunately on your last point, people can often turn to gambling situations (especially when online betting) because they actually suffer from loneliness and are looking to add a bit more excitement into their life. You're right on that point, but perhaps to expand a little - try to find a new hobbie or activity that is away from the usual environment where you gamble and you must make a conscious recognition at the beginning if you are going near any gambling triggers. Triggers could be drinking alcohol, feeling bored or visiting a certain location. You must make extra effort to avoid those scenarios as you cut loose.
1029  Economy / Economics / Re: Should you save, when you are wealthy? on: June 14, 2023, 05:29:37 PM
Everyone who wants to create a fortune has a long way to go, first we need to learn how to earn, save and then learn how to make money work for us. Someone creates a business for this, someone is looking for investments, but the essence remains the same, we earn, save and increase our capital.

I'm wondering how long we'll need to do the savings? Who has already reached any significant level, are you still saving, or you can afford to live without any financial restrictions?

I have just started taking steps towards achieving my well-being and it is still very difficult for me to understand how I can achieve my goal and become a wealthy person. The thought that I will have to save for a long time now seems difficult, will it not tire me, will I be able to go this way. I already have some bitcoin and I like the feeling that I own something of value. When I manage to save some money, I buy again, but this is not permanent because I do not have a permanent job. Sometimes I want to buy new sneakers, and I decide to buy or postpone, sometimes I doubt if I'm doing the right thing, maybe I should provide myself with everything I need and save only what remains, if left.

Probably now I am thinking that I would not like to save all the time, I would like to reach the level at which I would be a wealthy person and I would not have to worry about money, but I have no idea when I can achieve this.

You don't need to worry about what the wealthiest people are doing with their money, as they certainly aren't thinking about you. When you reach a certain point, like in the millions, it becomes about diversification of assets which can likely protect them from ever going poor again - even if they never worked another day in their lives. They might have a couple million in bonds, low paying but rock solid, a couple million in blue chip stocks which are super reliable and slightly higher paying and then put the rest in the regular stock market which will ebb and flow. With savings rates going up the whole picture is actually changing as we speak.
1030  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can i make 100 $ daily from online casinos on: June 14, 2023, 05:26:20 PM
It's been awhile I try daily to make profit

Stake casino mostly mines

But it take back profit.. I have 2k balance.. is there method

To get 100 $ per day

If you want it to be consistent you have to enter a game where you can get an edge - either against "the house" or against other players where the host usually gets a small cut as well. There is anecdotal evidence out there of some people who are capable of create strategies to win with sports betting, however bookmakers are always adapting too. Poker might be your best bet, but you need to be super intelligent and spend a lot of time learning the game - which most people are not able to do. Generally you might be better looking elsewhere to invest your money wisely, maybe training yourself on a proper education course to improve career prospects.
1031  Economy / Economics / Re: Is poverty a lack of money? on: June 14, 2023, 05:21:57 PM
I see poverty as the inability to provide what you need. So when people assume that poverty is when you don't have money I don't agree. Now what if you have all you need and you don't require money to buy anything, are you poor? Some people live in communities where everyone lives agrarian life. They have all they need because everything they need to survive is available. Food is on the farm, water available and everybody is happy. Although it was hard during the Covid-19 lockdown many people lived without money. I have also seen many people leaving cities and moving to rural areas to live a natural life.

In summary when you have everything you need to survive and you don't need money, are you poor?

Theoretically you don't need money in the example you've given, but you can guarantee that the land that they have control over has a certain value and that any resources they're able to extract from it may be exchanged and traded in a similar value to money. In most modern societies though, you'll find it tough to exist without money and the abilities it provides you to survive. Try being poor in a place like India and you won't have access to such resources as you described. You would have to find another way to make money or you would be in absolute poverty.
1032  Economy / Economics / Re: Landed properties is the best investment on: June 13, 2023, 05:10:40 PM
Half of the rich people keep continue to swim in fame and wealth because of their occupied landed properties. If you own a land, housing estate you can be sure living great but this wealth are mostly control by political leaders and BD individuals......if you're blessed enough begins to occupy property's that can sure your next generation... In my country Nigeria if you don't have any of this properties forget yourself, you will end up making life mortgage and tenancy. Land never depreciates it keeps buying higher that's why I considered it the best investment. What do you think?

There's definitely some differences in terminology at play here. I think you mean buy land and property instead of the odd phrase landed property? It's also real estate instead of housing estate, to use the American phrasing. Paying a mortgage, at least if the property is freehold, is essentially paying to buy a piece of land with a building outright. Maybe you're talking about leasehold properties, where you have to pay a separate "tax" to the land owner in perpetuity? Be careful with assuming land will always go up as well, because like gold it can be loosely attached to economic cycles - when everything else falls and is cheap, land does too.
1033  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: how to get over it on: June 13, 2023, 05:04:52 PM
I’ve turned $1,000 into $100,000
I’ve turned $6,000 into $80,000
I’ve turned $11,000 into $550,000
and recently I’ve turned $4,000 into $90,000

With nothing to show for it…I’m a sharp sports bettor, but I always end up going all in. I can never be satisfied until it’s too late. I always need to go all in.

I’ve been reading comments from my last post (turning $4,000 into $90,000 and losing the entire $90,000), and I can’t help but feel like shit.

How do I get over the countless failures? I’ve been chasing the $1,000,000 dream for years.

I don't believe any of the figures you've spouted but it's an interesting theoretical situation. First off I would recommend that you seek to vastly expand your knowledge on finances and how to diversify your assets. Going "all in" repeatedly is a recipe for disaster when there are only two outcomes: win or lose. Take some time to learn about the stock market. It is not gambling but has plenty of elements of risk in it and you get to learn about how different businesses function. Take a share of your earnings and buy stocks instead, they do not have such a binary outcome - it's possible to sell out on the way down or skim profits on the way up.
1034  Economy / Economics / Re: Twitter ad sales down 59%, company valuation down 66% on: June 13, 2023, 04:52:31 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/technology/twitter-ad-sales-musk.html

Quote from: NYtimes
But Twitter’s U.S. advertising revenue for the five weeks from April 1 to the first week of May was $88 million, down 59 percent from a year earlier, according to an internal presentation obtained by The New York Times. The company has regularly fallen short of its U.S. weekly sales projections, sometimes by as much as 30 percent, the document said.

Twitter’s ad sales staff is concerned that advertisers may be spooked by a rise in hate speech and pornography on the social network, as well as more ads featuring online gambling and marijuana products, the people said. The company has forecast that its U.S. ad revenue this month will be down at least 56 percent each week compared with a year ago, according to one internal document.

Twitter’s valuation has since plunged. In March, Mr. Musk said the company was worth $20 billion, down more than 50 percent from the $44 billion he paid for it. Last week, the mutual funds giant Fidelity, which owns shares in Twitter, valued the company at $15 billion.

At this rate Twitter will either file for bankruptcy or will be sold for 5-10 billion to new owners. Or maybe Musk will double down and will start using his Tesla/SpaceX money to support Twitter, although if that happens, the shareholders of those companies will be very unhappy. Another way how Twitter can survive a bit longer is if it will secure funding from foreign governments. One of the buyers of Twitter together with Musk was a Saudi prince. Maybe Musk will start offering censorship/propaganda/data harvesting service to governments for a large fee to offset his ad revenue losses. Because blue checkmark sales are clearly not enough.

Just goes to show that Elon is definitely not that intelligent, or more likely that his intelligent has long been overtaken by his ego. He got rich from PayPal and from that point onwards he was able to hire very clever people with his accumulated billions and go on to make even more billions. There reaches a point where if you are that rich, you don't need to be particularly clever to increase your wealth much further. Glad to see that he threw away so much money because he really is against free speech, even though he pretends to stand for it - only when you again with him.
1035  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Easy or hard to quit? on: June 12, 2023, 08:44:00 PM
Can you quit gambling if you make a life changing money and never go back to gambling?

I asked this because those who made some money through gambling near me always go back to gamble and they end up losing everything they once made through gambling.

Is it fine to say that people should not go back into gambling once they made high amount of money? Because the chance of losing that money again is very high, even if they don't use all the money to gamble at once, gambling can take it all back in time.

Have you ever won a high amount of money from gambling and managed to not lose them all back to gambling? And to date, you are still gambling?

It really comes down to the individual and their life circumstances in my opinion. Somebody that is relatively stable with a decent plan for their future is less likely to fall into the trap of long term and damaging gambling behavior, because they will tend to identify the problem earlier on. Education is also imperative in making informed decisions when it comes to betting. Knowing how the odds are stacked against you in different games is key to never envisaging that they will provide a shortcut to wealth. With all that in mind, somebody in a stable environment is less likely to take long shots or engage in other wasteful activities, because they will generally get more joy from spending that money elsewhere - so they might make one bet and quit.
1036  Economy / Economics / Re: What is your personal debt reduction method aside the debt snowball method? on: June 12, 2023, 08:22:46 PM
The debt snowball method is one of the most recommended strategies to get out of debt. How does it work?

You list your debts from smallest to largest and pay the minimum amount on everything except the smallest one. You prioritize paying off the smallest debt aggressively.

- consider selling off all the items you don't need.
- Consider working more jobs to increase your source income.
- Consider temporarily halting all investment, after which pour all your energy into paying off to the smallest debts.

By paying off the smallest debts first, the snowball effect kicks in and you move on to the next debt on the list until you pay off all of them. It is estimated that a person who follows this method religiously can become debt-free within 18 - 24 months.

However, the debt snowball method may not be effective if you have debts with specific payment dates that, if missed, could result in higher interest rates or a negative impact on your credit score. Nobody wants any of these.

Recently, I had some debts to pay and prioritized them based on urgency, regardless of their size. I had to pay them by or before the deadline. I didn't mind whether they were big debts or small debts. What mattered was meeting up with the deadline. This approach worked for me, although I'm not sure if it falls under the debt snowball method.

For those who have gotten out of debt more quickly, did you use the debt snowball method or another personal debt payment strategy that worked for you over the years?


The snowball method as you described it is actually pretty poor and if you have substantial debts it could leave you paying them off for longer than necessary. It all requires context however and a bit of common sense, but  mathematically speaking you should aim to pay down the highest rate of APR first. If you have reached the point where you are looking at paying off debts seriously, then hopefully you've started to note down all the debts so keeping track of them should get easier in that sense. Sure, you might want to tidy up a few lower numbers if you can, but if you have $10k of debt with $1k on 5%, $4k on 7% and $5k on 20% it makes absolute sense to clear the debt charging 20% first - you're just punishing yourself financially otherwise.
1037  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why People Still Gamble? on: June 12, 2023, 08:14:21 PM
People are saying that gambling is not good so nobody should involved themselves in it. Fathers/Mothers (parents) are shouting to their sons and sometimes beating them all because of gambling. If you are a gambler, the society sees you as a bad boy or person or a waste person in the family. Parents would be saying "look at your age mates, they are going to school and become a successful persons in the society, you are here playing gambling". They would even say, gamblers steal and thieves.
And really when you look at some of those boys they play Draft game morning till evening. Upon all these allegations against gambling. People are still Gambling. WHY? Is There Any Mystery Behind?

Gambling is entertainment, pure and simple. Some people treat it like a trip to the cinema, they know that they're engaging in a simple transaction - handing over money to see a movie in an exclusive setting, they walk away happy with the exchange of money for the visual art. Others might pay to visit a football match and enjoy the spectacle of the game. Gambling falls into the same bracket, the only difference is there is some people fool themselves into the idea that they can win big money for a little input, which the gambling companies don't put a lot of money into dispelling, but ultimately most people are able to walk away having spent a set amount for the infinitesimally small possibility they might make big gains on what they put in.
1038  Economy / Economics / Re: I thought there was an egg shortage. on: June 12, 2023, 08:09:57 PM
I thought there was a global panic over egg supplies. Not so long ago they were rationing sales. This morning I bought some boxes of 6 big and fresh eggs for just 21 pence. The normal price is £1.40. It just shows how food prices and distribution is being manipulated to rip us off. That is if we aren't aware and exploiting the situation for our own benefit. The eggs were on sale at a m ajor Asda supermarket in Hampshire, England.

You seem completely oblivious of the many ever changing factors that feed into the supply and demand chains around the world. The war in Ukraine meant that around a third of the grain that was produced annually suddenly dropped off a cliff because them and Russia had difficulties supplying it. There were outbreaks of bird flu this year that meant large flocks of birds were slaughtered in the UK. There are probably a dozen other factors, like the all round interest rate rises on fuel for transport of all of these things didn't help either. The problem with conspiracy theorists is they lock on to one simple basic idea, without understanding the huge economic bonds that drive the world and it's a miracle that these things ever got to as cheap as they are now. There is unbelievable resilience, ingenuity and dynamism shaping markets every day.
1039  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can Chat GTP destroy poker on-line gambling??? on: June 11, 2023, 04:32:40 PM
Reading another post, it crossed my mind that AIs and particularly ChatGPT could potentially be trained with a large samples of games played by poker champions and then put it to auto-play with amateur on-line players. If this is successful, it could mean the end of human on-line poker playing except perhaps for the world masters and the like. Has anyone tried? Would it be possible??

There is some analogy with chess algorithms and programs that can now defeat the top players in the world. However I'm not quite sure the same is true for poker, as the best it'll tend to do is based on choosing the right response based on pot odds. It might be able to go a step further and judge a bluff, but the best players in the world could probably determine the point where it will fold to a bluff. If the bot had a large amount of analysis specific to the player it was against, then it could potentially determine a countering strategy and pick out bluffs more effectively.
1040  Economy / Economics / Re: Americans go to Mexico for medicals to cut costs. on: June 11, 2023, 04:19:22 PM
The recent kidnapping of four Americans exposed me to the medical tourism going on in America. I have always thought that the US was a perfect country has very functional health, economic, and political systems. I thought all Americans have access to cheap and quality medical services until I read that over one million Americans go on medical tourism in Mexico yearly.

And the reason why some of them choose Mexico was because of its quality and low cost. These medical tourists are aware that it is risky to do to some parts of Mexico, but they still go there because they want to cut costs.
Is there any other reason why Americans go to Mexico for medical?

I would say this has more to do with the obscene pricing of the American medical system than any particular quality, besides cheapness, of Mexican surgery. It always shocks me whenever I see any reference to hospital bills in the USA, as they seem to high and are very often overinflated, like they will itemize to bill $30 for a paracetamol. It's to do with the insurance companies that have become so ingrained in the system, more so than pharmaceutical companies even, that they manipulate everything and don't really give a toss about the wider picture of a healthier society, that the government should always be seeking.
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