A very disturbing trend is emerging in crypto world. Every time someone expresses doubt or worries about something there's a bunch of halfwits calling him out for spreading FUD. Basically they condemn every piece of information that deviates from their "everything is ok, oh look, an unicorn" fairiland. Fkn annoying. It's like living in stalinist country, lol.
Exactly. When btc-e had some issues, I looked at their tweets leading up to it and, having watched this shit happen before, I knew something was really wrong. Sure enough, within a day or two it was gone. But god forbid you actually point that sort of thing out to people. Just let the morons lose all their money. |
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I think the lowest value is set by the electricity cost of mining a bitcoin - that must be at least $1000.
Depends on the miner but an S9 would be roughly $112 or so per month for a lot of people. |
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They have a vision that involves specialized mining hardware running people with enough data storage and upgrade capabilities to maintain a full node that would result from an increased block size. They see users as running the SPV wallet while miners maintain the network as well as full node.
The real/ original Bitcoin (call it Bitcoin core if you like) vision is to always keep it possible for anybody willing to give the time to be able to run a full node with hardware investment not being an entry barrier. Seriously? Have you ever read all the stuff Satoshi actually said? Go read the whitepaper and all his emails. What you'll find is that "bitcoin" as it is today and the direction core is taking it, is not what he envisioned. He envisioned exactly what bitcoin cash is. One can argue that what core is doing is the right path and that Satoshi designed a flawed product that they need to "fix". But he said miners would run full nodes and users SPV wallets. He said when they needed bigger blocks they'd just do a fork to increase the size. So please don't imply what core has done with bitcoin is the original Satoshi design/vision. For the record, I think both coins are fundamentally flawed and will never be able to achieve what people really want, which, IMO, is to have a completely decentralized currency with which to buy a cup of coffee without having to pay some ridiculous fee. |
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I anyone had asked me, I would have said it was going to go down to less than $1000 instead of: it's going to 10k.. oh wait, now it's going to $5k.. oh hold on, it's going to $1k. I guess I just don't have a cool name like "The Prophet" |
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Bernie Madoff ran his Ponzi scheme for 25+ years... Just sayin.
Again, no way to prove 100%. But think about it, the Bitfinex CEO is already super rich from just operating one of the largest exchange. Probably, he has a billion or more in legit money+ cryptos already. Why risk lifetime jail and bounty on your head just to make another billion or two from printing tether? History is filled with people that had lots of money and yet still did something illegal to get even more. There seems to a point where they start to think they're above the law, immune etc. What's logical and smart to us just doesn't seem to be the case for them for some reason. I remember hearing one rich person say something about it reaching a point where it was no longer being about the money, but all about the "game". |
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I think everyone is over exaggerating on the tether FUD. Tether existed from November 2015 till now and has not
crashed. If tether were a scam, they would have gotten out much earlier like Bitconnect.
CFTC has subpoenaed tether since Dec last year and did not say anything bad about tether in the senate hearing.
From what I know, Bitfinex and Tether are the same company and exchanges that want to use tether pay the company 1 USD to receive
1 tether. In that case that 1 tether is backed by the 1 USD that other exchanges purchased from it.
So, I do not see how they do not have the money backed as others claim. They may or may not have it fully backed (No one
knows until its fully audited). But if you doubt they do not have the resources to back 2 billions dollars I would say you're wrong.
Keep in mind, they do not have to generate all the 2 billion USD dollars themselves as most of the money are from other exchanges
that purchased the tether with real USD. if you combine all the money that the exchanges make (Binance, Bittrex, Cryptopia+Others+ Bitfinex
themselves), 2 billion is not unreasonable given how much money all these exchanges combined make per year.
Bernie Madoff ran his Ponzi scheme for 25+ years... Just sayin. |
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Or, you could look at the 2013 bitcoin "bubble".. Took almost a year to get down to mining cost levels, stayed there for many months and then started to climb for the halving. Next one should be in 2020.
The 2013 bubble didnt have consolidations, it was straight up to the top, only green candles. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29420259#msg29420259Don't know what that has to do with anything. If anything it would imply that the slide downward would just take longer. But whatever, I have yet to see any person giving any sort of technical analysis be correct 100% of the time, especially in crypto as it's a completely different beast. They always throw out a handful of scenarios and they're bound to be correct with one of them. |
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Looking to the dotcom chart, we can predict a fall to mining costs in two months, after a period of recovery. Then it will go up steady and have a small crash around november. After that, it will go only up.
This, if it repeats that chart. I dont think that will do, but is food for tought.
Or, you could look at the 2013 bitcoin "bubble".. Took almost a year to get down to mining cost levels, stayed there for many months and then started to climb for the halving. Next one should be in 2020. |
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Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.
That's like saying that there is no cost for mining gold or other valuables because the price is determined when you sell it. Sounds a bit like Schrodingers Cat. Current Bitcoin difficulty and available mining gear does represent the cost of a Bitcoin. No the price of mining gold is pretty fixed. You have tractors and digging and labor etc. and it's always the same regardless of the price of gold. The cost of mining gold is not a variable in a computer. You absolutely need a certain amount of money to mine gold regardless of how many people are mining gold. With bitcoin, on the other hand, if all the other miners except you stopped mining, then the cost of mining bitcoins would be 0 for you. Cost of mining is, at a bare minimum, your electricity. So no, not 0. Its essentially 0. If youre the only one mining then difficulty levels would approach 0 and no matter how much power you used every 10 minutes you would get 12.5 bitcoins. You could be using 1hz or your cpu on your ipad, and your cost of mining one bitcoin is 1 cent. I dont think you can describe any kind of similar situation with gold - its strictly a feature of the bitcoin protocol in which bitcoin will survive and work exactly the same way no matter how many miners there are. Oh and some places have free power, but thats beside the point. I realize you're trying to create scenarios that are far from the reality of the situation so you can justify your position, but there is a cost to produce bitcoin. Electricity is just one thing. You have your "labour" costs. ROI of your equipment, replacement costs yada yada yada yada. Yes, you can put together a scenario and claim that means it's zero, but that's not reality. I could play the same game you're doing and make the argument that it would cost me nothing to go out and mine some gold. |
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Theres no such thing as a cost of production for bitcoin. The bitcoin difficult is adjusted every 10 minutes to account for network competition. Mining doesnt affect price - other way around.
That's like saying that there is no cost for mining gold or other valuables because the price is determined when you sell it. Sounds a bit like Schrodingers Cat. Current Bitcoin difficulty and available mining gear does represent the cost of a Bitcoin. No the price of mining gold is pretty fixed. You have tractors and digging and labor etc. and it's always the same regardless of the price of gold. The cost of mining gold is not a variable in a computer. You absolutely need a certain amount of money to mine gold regardless of how many people are mining gold. With bitcoin, on the other hand, if all the other miners except you stopped mining, then the cost of mining bitcoins would be 0 for you. Cost of mining is, at a bare minimum, your electricity. So no, not 0. |
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After the last couple of days l have had in this market l refuse to use the term HODL anymore. It is just too nice a term for what we are presently experiencing. I believe we need to ad a new letter to it HOFDL - " Hold on For Fucking dear life " . Pretty much sums up what is necessary in this market.
Anyone got a clue where we are heading in the short term? There is so much FUD out there and misdirection, it's hard to work out what is happening.
Ignore what anyone says.. Look at the chart of bitcoin for the last 5 years.. and you'll have your answer. Do you sometimes use brain or your only argument is "look at historical charts, it will always be the same, it happened few times so it will be happening forever"? XDD those crypto "investors" are so funny.. Thank you for your insightful comment. It was extremely valuable. |
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We won´t see Bitcoin below 1000 $ again I don't buy your argument. As long as they can keep their operation running at some level of profit at $1000 or lower, why wouldn't they. They can be buying up cheap coins at that price like all the smart money and then wait for the next halving to start the next pump. Keep in mind that people were making the same arguments that it would never hit $200 (which was around a "cost per bitcoin" price at the time) after the 2013 ATH.. And it did.. And it stayed in that range for many months. Something else to keep in mind regarding that cost per bitcoin. My calculations are already lower than that. In addition, as the price of bitcoin drops, more miners will shut off their equipment and/or move to other coins and so the cost per bitcoin will continue to drop. Same thing happened before and there's really nothing new here including "bad news out of china" after an ATH. |
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the bottom was 0.0001 usd in 2009
It was around $200 after the ATH of 2013... Now it would be around $400 due to the halving that occurred since then.. But let them all dream. |
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Just remember, its not a loss until you sell out!
Wrong. It's only a loss if you never trade again... You can take a temporary "loss" and end up a big winner if you use your brain. |
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How to differenciate a dead cat bounce from the end of the correction?
This is exactly my question.
Is there someone with experience in Technical Analyses who can answer this?
Very relevant at this moment!
Cheers an Goodluck to all!
JJ
You understand that crypto is not like normal stocks right? It's more like penny stock. Highly volatile, high highs, low lows, and easily manipulated. |
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After the last couple of days l have had in this market l refuse to use the term HODL anymore. It is just too nice a term for what we are presently experiencing. I believe we need to ad a new letter to it HOFDL - " Hold on For Fucking dear life " . Pretty much sums up what is necessary in this market.
Anyone got a clue where we are heading in the short term? There is so much FUD out there and misdirection, it's hard to work out what is happening.
Ignore what anyone says.. Look at the chart of bitcoin for the last 5 years.. and you'll have your answer. |
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People bought at 19k and higher this time. They'll do it again. (Just like how everyone bought at the previous ATH this time even though there was a big dump last time as well.) When the hype train starts going, people let greed and fantasies of becoming rich overnight cloud all logic and reason... i.e. there's a sucker born ever minute.
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so why you say bitcoin is a ponzi scheme?  It's not, he's just trolling. |
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2020 should be the next halving. Look at the past trend and you can see that it could very well be the start of the next ATH while from now till then the price trends to the "bottom". Lightning network could change things though. But then again I wouldn't be surprised if that gets dragged out until then given how slow core is to get things done.
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which is by definition a Ponzi scheme.
Someone needs to go and reread the definition instead of trying to make some convoluted arguments to make it "fit" so he can use the term Ponzi in a controversial topic in order to troll ppl.. Bravo for the attempt though. Very creative. |
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