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1401  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 19, 2012, 09:52:49 PM
Who is going to fall for it?   Roll Eyes
1402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 19, 2012, 09:44:54 PM
Game theory says you are wrong. Study it before you say anything else: http://academicearth.org/courses/game-theory

Which bit is wrong?  The price discovery and rational picture?

All of it.

I know a little bit about Game Theory but am not conversant in it. 

Well I suggest you study it because it pretty much can explain most of how the world works.
1403  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the real risk of a 51% attack? on: September 19, 2012, 06:11:25 PM

Government is not what concerns me.  It's the central banks that run and control those governments that concerns me.  And if you don't believe the Federal Reserve tells Congress what to do perhaps you should reference a few of the chairman's himself quotes when asked where the bailout money went.

Wake up, the US Government is bought and paid for by the bankers.  It would be naive to think they wouldn't use that asset to protect their interests.



I certainly think it's an insidious system with nasty feedback loops that incentivize politicians to promise the world to a largely unsuspecting/uneducated electorate in order to get re-elected, and that the Fed and debt-issuance is the vehicle that allows this, etc... And the primary-dealer banks clearly have a super-advantageous position in all this.

But I do not think the channels are anywhere near as deliberate/intended/meticulously-designed as you imply. You are, frankly, giving government (Fed and NSA counts) too much credit.

I agree with Melbustus. Those psychopaths are merely individually trying to have an easy life by stealing from the rest and stomping on anyone who dares oppose them which includes each other. It just so happens that sometimes they work in sync or give each other motives to repeat certain actions which creates only an illusion that they're all working together.

yes and mostly no.  the thoughts of all the bankster CEO's pulling up in their limousines to the their meeting place (can't remember the exact building) in Manhattan to plan their own rescue during the depths of the fin crisis in 2008 belie your claims.  i cannot imagine any other scenario than them plotting to dump their bad loans onto the Fed and Treasury.  also the Libor scam required widespread collusion amongst the banks setting that rate.  Geithner, Paulson, and Bernanke speaking with Blankfein and Dimon dozens of times in 2008 about bailouts smacks of collusion as well.  how about CB interest rate collusion?  AIG?  Not to mention the revolving door policies.

all in all, the evidence speaks to widespread cooperation amongst key players.

Yes, some of them collude, I have no doubt about that, after all that's what corporatism is. But I don't think they purposefully scheme to achieve certain outcomes. Fort instance I don't think they made plans to bring about a housing bubble and then pop it..
1404  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What is the real risk of a 51% attack? on: September 19, 2012, 05:43:07 PM

Government is not what concerns me.  It's the central banks that run and control those governments that concerns me.  And if you don't believe the Federal Reserve tells Congress what to do perhaps you should reference a few of the chairman's himself quotes when asked where the bailout money went.

Wake up, the US Government is bought and paid for by the bankers.  It would be naive to think they wouldn't use that asset to protect their interests.



I certainly think it's an insidious system with nasty feedback loops that incentivize politicians to promise the world to a largely unsuspecting/uneducated electorate in order to get re-elected, and that the Fed and debt-issuance is the vehicle that allows this, etc... And the primary-dealer banks clearly have a super-advantageous position in all this.

But I do not think the channels are anywhere near as deliberate/intended/meticulously-designed as you imply. You are, frankly, giving government (Fed and NSA counts) too much credit.

I agree with Melbustus. Those psychopaths are merely individually trying to have an easy life by stealing from the rest and stomping on anyone who dares oppose them which includes each other. It just so happens that sometimes they work in sync or give each other motives to repeat certain actions which creates only an illusion that they're all working together.
1405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 19, 2012, 04:09:46 PM
Not surprised if $15 is broken before 2013. I see the current hidden rocket as simply the growth of Bitcoin, nothing else, nothing special. There is just new money coming in for many reasons and I don't need any other reason than that. Bitcoin at single digits was so very undervalued and now we're inching up because it's still undervalued. Not sure how undervalued it is but I still feel fairly comfortable at current levels.

Also the effect of the block reward halving has been underestimated in my opinion. If you discount all speculative trading which is basically short term buy low sell high (or sometimes the opposite), the selling pressure that comes from the daily mined coins is fairly significant. It's real, pure selling pressure. That selling pressure will be halved in almost 2 months and it will affect the market. It's not completely priced in yet and this inching up movement is perhaps partially that "pricing it in" movement.

Yep, instead of ~219600/month being mined only half of that will be mined and if people think that's not going to significantly reduce the day to day supply available on the exchanges, they're kidding themselves.. But I do believe the market will entirely price in this change before it actually happens and I don't expect any significant jumps after the block reward gets reduced.
1406  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2012-09-18 howtovanish.com - Why Bitcoin Acceptance Should Be A Litmus Test Of L on: September 19, 2012, 12:26:47 PM
Yeah Trace is doing an amazing work and as he said in 'that' interview for quite selfish reasons, as it should be. As more and more people transfer wealth into bitcoins his get more valuable.
1407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: September 19, 2012, 12:07:39 PM
I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

I disagree.  There has been nothing like Bitcoin and hence no precedent for a mathematically designed supply drop.

And because this is a "first", the market has no historical models to ponder.

IMO, the reality disconnect* is still running and will only converge at the point of drop.

*even though you have seen the code, the event is still not "real"

EDIT:  I consider the price of Bitcoin prior to this split to be purely a process of price discovery. 
Only after this event can the market start to form a rational picture of Bitcoin.

Game theory says you are wrong. Study it before you say anything else: http://academicearth.org/courses/game-theory
1408  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: September 19, 2012, 12:02:46 PM
The wallet javascript verifier tell me not to log in now...







Try again, I forgot why exactly but sometimes it does that for no good reason.. For example I don't get any errors..
1409  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Automatic Coin Mixing Idea on: September 19, 2012, 11:59:30 AM
I love this idea.
1410  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Blog post: Do bitcoins actually exist? on: September 19, 2012, 08:47:58 AM
What about imaginary arrangements like unicorns. Your definition would imply that unicorns and bizzarro superman exist
The idea of a unicorn is different than an actual unicorn standing in front of you. Existance is subject to all the same rules for proof than any other statement is subject.

And yet you dodged my question, why is that?
1411  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: Blockchain.info - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: September 18, 2012, 11:33:03 PM
Hey piuk I have a question.. Can the backup that was sent to my email be decrypted by simply using my password only even if I have sms two factor authentication enabled?

Yes, I imported my encrypted/emailed backup wallet into Multibit after I enabled 2-factor authentication to test it.  It works (no two-factor auth necessary).

Cool, thanks.
1412  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: DDOS for ransom on: September 18, 2012, 10:51:51 PM
BitPay is back. excellent work!

the site should be up now.  Lets see if the attacker can get through Cloudflare this time.


Nope. Doesn't work for me.

EDIT: works now.
1413  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: DDOS for ransom on: September 18, 2012, 10:23:49 PM
Not for me.
1414  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bitcoin Could Be An NWO's Conspiracy on: September 18, 2012, 09:19:47 PM
I'm done trying to educate the "opposition". I've been trying for a while. Either they'll get it or they won't. When they do get it, they'll be buying from us.

You know you might want to reconsider because not everyone who reads an article or a forum post comments on it and I think it's important that if you can you represent the truth so other readers can get a chance to be exposed to it. Don't try to persuade your "opposition" try to persuade the undecideds Wink
1415  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: DDOS for ransom on: September 18, 2012, 09:16:50 PM
So is bitpay still under attack and still down?
1416  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Dying bitcoins on: September 18, 2012, 09:00:47 PM
So next-gen coin should have a protocol that could be adjusted by anyone without breaking the whole system.

We have that, it's called central banking and fiat currencies (FED + dollar, ECB + euro, and so on..)
1417  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BitCoin on Alex Jone on: September 18, 2012, 08:59:03 PM
I doubt this buffoon will ever understand what Bitcoin really is and how it really works and what it can help him do.. I don't like this guy at all, to me most of what he does is just praying on the really fearful of the government blowing up stories making them sound much more horrible then they are and sometime fabricating some outright.

He has a few good speeches here and there when it comes to some important issue like the TSA procedures at airports but that's about it.

I disagree. I don't listen to Alex Jones but I think he definitely has a role to play.

When all your new comes from one mainstream consensus you're bound to be missing something, likely important. Alex Jones and independent broadcasters like him shine light on important issues that otherwise might never be discussed. He has a large audience because of this.

Good point and I guess if he wasn't such a buffoon he probably wouldn't have such a large audience..
1418  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The ultimate Bitcoin interview on the front page of dailypaul.com on: September 18, 2012, 08:21:13 PM
Can it be that you can't register if you have a non US IP?

I don't have a register button, too.

My IP is non US but Erik's is not so that's not it. Maybe they closed registrations?!

EDIT: yeah looks like registrations are closed: http://www.dailypaul.com/user/register

EDIT2: Imagine this:

Quote
The lowest price membership is $5 a month
Theres no more free ones Sad

Looks like it'll cost you 5bucks if you want to comment..

EDIT3: now it appears even that isn't working properly atm Tongue lame.
1419  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The ultimate Bitcoin interview on the front page of dailypaul.com on: September 18, 2012, 08:11:07 PM
WTF - Am I retarded or is there no way to become a member of dailypaul.com??  I can't find the registration page.... and I need to comment on the story!!

Right side a bit lower than top?

EDIT: lol I logged and I don't see it either, lol! Sec let me look around a bit, I might need to turn off adblock too
1420  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The ultimate Bitcoin interview on the front page of dailypaul.com on: September 18, 2012, 08:03:32 PM
Well-done Hazek.
Ty!
Twitter is abuzz with this.
Really? Didn't catch that but I'm not surprised, Trace did an amazing job. I watched it several times now so I remember his analogies and way of explaining various issues.

(Or is it more appropriate to say "atwit?") Smiley

lol who knows Tongue
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