Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[Spekulatius]

I dont know... Looks like a tsunami from here. Just look!



If we get lured to far into the deep by withdrawing tides, we may drown in the flush of water back to shore!

"place your bids people, someone is bound to dump a butt load of coins all at once!"

in your dreams...

don't count on a sell off, your either on-board or being left behind.

Im on board Adam, dont worry! (r u?)
Be vigilant around 13.5$-15$, just sayin'. This rally feels pushed, there is not much buying pressure right now and no foundation. If ASKs are removed and put back up higher, there is a tsunami mounting up the greedy won't see coming..
FISHFODDER!!! HAHAHAHARRHARRHARR

[adamstgBit]

I dont know... Looks like a tsunami from here. Just look!



If we get lured to far into the deep by withdrawing tides, we may drown in the flush of water back to shore!

"place your bids people, someone is bound to dump a butt load of coins all at once!"

in your dreams...

don't count on a sell off, your either on-board or being left behind.

Im on board Adam, dont worry! (r u?)
Be vigilant around 13.5$-15$, just sayin'. This rally feels pushed, there is not much buying pressure right now and no foundation. If ASKs are removed and put back up higher, there is a tsunami mounting up the greedy won't see coming..
FISHFODDER!!! HAHAHAHARRHARRHARR

I can feel that too, that why i sold a few the other day...

regretting it already 

[rebuilder]

What I don't get is why there is a 600 BTC wall @ 12 on BTC-e when the rate at gox is almost 30 cents USD higher.

[adamstgBit]

What I don't get is why there is a 600 BTC wall @ 12 on BTC-e when the rate at gox is almost 30 cents USD higher.

it could be BTC-E users ran out of cash buying it up to 12$ ?

[proudhon]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

[lebing]

10% per month seems about the right level of growth right now. http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I'm expecting some pullback around 15 again

[smoothie]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

Oh how many times have I heard "it's already priced in"....then the price goes up more...lol

[David M]

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

I disagree.  There has been nothing like Bitcoin and hence no precedent for a mathematically designed supply drop.

And because this is a "first", the market has no historical models to ponder.

IMO, the reality disconnect* is still running and will only converge at the point of drop.

*even though you have seen the code, the event is still not "real"

EDIT:  I consider the price of Bitcoin prior to this split to be purely a process of price discovery. 
Only after this event can the market start to form a rational picture of Bitcoin.

[Piper67]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

And in my considered opinion, your powers of prediction are somewhat lacking. It wasn't too long ago you were adamant 7.20 was the all time high for 2012.

[hazek]

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

I disagree.  There has been nothing like Bitcoin and hence no precedent for a mathematically designed supply drop.

And because this is a "first", the market has no historical models to ponder.

IMO, the reality disconnect* is still running and will only converge at the point of drop.

*even though you have seen the code, the event is still not "real"

EDIT:  I consider the price of Bitcoin prior to this split to be purely a process of price discovery. 
Only after this event can the market start to form a rational picture of Bitcoin.

Game theory says you are wrong. Study it before you say anything else: http://academicearth.org/courses/game-theory

[robocoin]

https://www.coursera.org/course/gametheory

[robocoin]

Wow, the BTC/EUR is at 9.70.

That would be 12,6259$ at current EUR/USD rate...

[proudhon]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

And in my considered opinion, your powers of prediction are somewhat lacking. It wasn't too long ago you were adamant 7.20 was the all time high for 2012.

And now I'm adamant that $15.xx will be the all time high for 2012.  This time I'm sure I'm right.

[arklan]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

And in my considered opinion, your powers of prediction are somewhat lacking. It wasn't too long ago you were adamant 7.20 was the all time high for 2012.

And now I'm adamant that $15.xx will be the all time high for 2012.  This time I'm sure I'm right.

and quoting for posterity. i think we could, maybe, hit 16. staying there's another subject. no, i don't want to bet on that!

[Technomage]

Not surprised if $15 is broken before 2013. I see the current hidden rocket as simply the growth of Bitcoin, nothing else, nothing special. There is just new money coming in for many reasons and I don't need any other reason than that. Bitcoin at single digits was so very undervalued and now we're inching up because it's still undervalued. Not sure how undervalued it is but I still feel fairly comfortable at current levels.

Also the effect of the block reward halving has been underestimated in my opinion. If you discount all speculative trading which is basically short term buy low sell high (or sometimes the opposite), the selling pressure that comes from the daily mined coins is fairly significant. It's real, pure selling pressure. That selling pressure will be halved in almost 2 months and it will affect the market. It's not completely priced in yet and this inching up movement is perhaps partially that "pricing it in" movement.

[Piper67]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

And in my considered opinion, your powers of prediction are somewhat lacking. It wasn't too long ago you were adamant 7.20 was the all time high for 2012.

And now I'm adamant that $15.xx will be the all time high for 2012.  This time I'm sure I'm right.

That's a margin of error of over 100% between being sure the first time and being sure the second... people who err with a margin of over 100% should not really be in the business of making predictions.

[hazek]

Not surprised if $15 is broken before 2013. I see the current hidden rocket as simply the growth of Bitcoin, nothing else, nothing special. There is just new money coming in for many reasons and I don't need any other reason than that. Bitcoin at single digits was so very undervalued and now we're inching up because it's still undervalued. Not sure how undervalued it is but I still feel fairly comfortable at current levels.

Also the effect of the block reward halving has been underestimated in my opinion. If you discount all speculative trading which is basically short term buy low sell high (or sometimes the opposite), the selling pressure that comes from the daily mined coins is fairly significant. It's real, pure selling pressure. That selling pressure will be halved in almost 2 months and it will affect the market. It's not completely priced in yet and this inching up movement is perhaps partially that "pricing it in" movement.

Yep, instead of ~219600/month being mined only half of that will be mined and if people think that's not going to significantly reduce the day to day supply available on the exchanges, they're kidding themselves.. But I do believe the market will entirely price in this change before it actually happens and I don't expect any significant jumps after the block reward gets reduced.

[smoothie]

I think this is just the expected bump off of the conference.  It'll settle back down soon enough is my guess.

Or not....get your mind around the fact that bitcoin blocks will be 25 in 2.5 months.

Then a price of $12.50 a bitcoin becomes "cheap"

I have thought about it, and my considered response is that the block reward change probably has already been priced in and, when it happens, or around its happening, there won't be much change.  I still fully expect we'll see single digits in 2013.

And in my considered opinion, your powers of prediction are somewhat lacking. It wasn't too long ago you were adamant 7.20 was the all time high for 2012.

And now I'm adamant that $15.xx will be the all time high for 2012.  This time I'm sure I'm right.

Prediction: Proudhon will make another prediction around the end of December claiming that the price of $2X.XX is the high for 2012. Perhaps the last 12 hours of 2012 he will be 100% sure


LOL 

[Spekulatius]

[lebing]