As for the rest of the bitcoin protocol, and the Satoshi blockchain in particular, I am more skeptical than ever.
From you posting history, you seems much more interested in the timing of Chinese people eating and sleeping, rather than the design of blockchain. |
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其实796很赚钱的，比如说现在24小时交易量是44241，手续费是0.1%，买卖双方都收，也就是说24小时受到的btc是88.482，现在1btc是3630人民币，24小时的交易费收入就是321189.66，多厉害！
您计算的比实际多了4-5倍。谢谢。 就算是1/5也很不錯吧.  |
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Don't exaggerate. I'm not saying this.
But reports shows that these 2 rallies was hugely driven by Willy, and would we have other rallies, it might be way slower (and so all that nice exponential chart models are so flawed).
MtGox died 3 months ago. If Willy was the only reason for the run from 10 to 1000, we should now be closer to 10. However, we are much closer to 1000 now. And don't forget, during the latest rally, most smart people escaped MtGox and were trading on other markets. BitPay stopped using MtGox since June. Volume in MtGox had moved to Bitstamp and Chinese markets. These other markets are real markets where people could freely deposit and withdraw both bitcoin and fiat. Especially in Chinese markets, fiat withdraw and deposit was completely friction-less before the PBoC ban. High price at these markets could not be sustained without real liquidity. The Willy report is an excellent forensic analysis. However, I don't agree with its conclusion that Willy was the single most important factor in the previous rallies. Undoubtedly Willy had "contribution", but it was only one of the many reasons. |
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It's recovering, but we are still trading at 74% of the trend line, or 50 days behind it.  |
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Look at the 1-day RSI chart. The pattern is repeating. If that's true, we should keep raising to 700-ish, stabilize at 600-ish for a month, and the real bubble begins at July.
everybody goes history does not repeat blah blah blah But i agree this biatch certainly is doing a very good impression of the same thing ... Maybe we should say humans repeating their same mistakes or humans not changing their behaviour in the context of (GREED/FEAR) Further zooming out you will see this pattern has happened 3 times in a row  |
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 Look at the 1-day RSI chart. The pattern is repeating. If that's true, we should keep raising to 700-ish, stabilize at 600-ish for a month, and the real bubble begins at July. |
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Suddenly the price freezes, volume drops, and silence falls on the forums. It is that tense moment right before the tyrannosaur jumps out of the jungle.
Or maybe just lunchtime in China.
As a computer science professor with academic interest in bitcoin only, and not owner, not trader, the right section for you is "Development & Technical Discussion", not "Speculation". As a computer science professor who is very skeptical of bitcoin's longterm success, the right thing to do is to criticize the design of the blockchain, not to concern when do Chinese people have their lunch |
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說中文的不一定是中國人  此话怎解？ 說英文的就一定是英國人? 說法文的就一定是法國人? 如果都不是, 那為什麼說中文的就一定是中國人? |
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I don't see no triple bottoms or double tops, apart from the double top we just bounced of that met the last high in April.
There's your double top  Unless it goes below 470, it is not a double top. |
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https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/04/30/kncminer-joins-bitcoin-foundation-at-platinum-level/Blog
KnCMiner Joins Bitcoin Foundation at Platinum Level
By Jinyoung Lee Englund • April 30, 2014
knc
In five short years, Bitcoin mining has inspired cutting edge innovation and breathed new life into the silicon industry. Leading the pack is our newest Platinum member, KnCMiner.
“We are avid believers in Bitcoin and its potential to shape the future of digital transactions worldwide — most notably for millions of people traditionally locked out of the financial system. Our values are aligned with that of the Bitcoin Foundation and we are proud to support its work,” said Andreas Kennemar, Co-Founder of KnCMiner, Inc.
Based in Stockholm, KnCMiner is a proven leader in delivering custom designed, high performance ASIC mining hardware — payable in bitcoin. Their mission is to provide the best equipment and service solutions in Bitcoin mining. Co-founders Andreas Kennemar, Marcus Erlandsson, Michael Unnebäck, and Sam Cole bring 10+ years of experience in embedded electronic development, focused on FPGA and ASIC design as well as 25+ years in product and service development respectively.
“In this era of Bitcoin mining, experienced companies like KnCMiner provide the necessary technology to strengthen and power the distributed network and secure long-lasting stability for Bitcoin’s infrastructure,” said Jon Matonis, Executive Director of the Bitcoin Foundation.
To learn more about KnCMiner, visithttps://www.kncminer.com/
Welcome, KnCMiner! With apologies to those who congratulated me, I ask: WHERE THE FUCK IS PROOF THAT KnC MINER PAID THEIR $100K USD via BTC TO THE BITCOIN FOUNDATION FOR THEIR PLATINUM MEMBERSHIP PRIOR TO BEING ABLE TO VOTE FOR BROCK PIERCE FOR THE EMPTY BOARD SEAT?TBF only uses one bitcoin wallet address for transparency. TBF received 5,000 BTC to said address at onset of formation. TBF oNLy accepts BTC - none other - when accepting membership dues, regardless the size. TBF has some 'splainin' to do! TBF cannot claim if was via some other money transfer avenue, for that would negate the rules they themselves written. TBF cannot show some other bitcoin wallet account they have control of, for that would negate their transparency stance, along with showing something else that could be easily gleaned if such exists. TBF cannot claim that it hasn't been paid yet, for that would open up a whole 'nother can o' worms. Looks to me like TBF has got themself into another pickle. How many more times am I, along with the entire Bitcoin community, going to be lied to? How much more money will be stolen from us BITCOIN MINIONS due the foxes guarding the Jerk Chicken house? AFAIK The 1BTCorg address is only a donation address |
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Proof can be seen here: https://blockchain.info/address/1BTCorgHwCg6u2YSAWKgS17qUad6kHmtQWhttps://bitcoinfoundation.org/support/Your membership funds our efforts to standardize, protect and promote Bitcoin.
Industry members must join by April 15, 2014 to be eligible to vote on the two industry board seats up for election in April 2014. Any industry member with a valid industry membership may nominate an individual to run in the election up to the April 7, 2014 nomination deadline. Because both board seats are industry board seats, only industry members are eligible to nominate individuals for and vote in the April 2014 election.
We offer two membership options for individuals, annual and lifetime, as well as three membership tiers for industry: silver, gold, and platinum. All memberships include one vote in their membership class and access to our member forums where you’ll be able to provide input on foundation initiatives, join a committee, or volunteer. Industry memberships include additional benefits outlined here.
We only accept Bitcoin as payment for members dues. Our membership pricing is pegged directly to the market value of Bitcoin, updated on a daily basis. For current membership pricing options, please create an account.
To promote transparency and enforce fair voting procedures, we require a real name and address for all members. Please note that member dues paid to records that do not include a real name and mailable address will not be refunded.
If you would prefer to support the Bitcoin Foundation without joining as a member, you can do so by donating to the address listed on our donate page, but note that donors do not receive member voting rights or other benefits.  Now that I, too, am a Platinum Member of The Bitcoin Foundation, I'm really going to start stirring up some shit. Quick aside: davout, I'm still waiting for you to clarify my bitcoin address so that can return my stolen 1,132 BTC currently residing in one of your bitcoin wallets. If you've taught me one thing, phinn, it's to vet rather than believe. Can you sign a message with the private key or keys used to txfer $100k to the Bitcoin Foundation as well as the transaction? The biggest single transaction to this address since 1 April is only 2.2834BTC. Telling lie about the blockchain is to most stupid thing to do. |
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Wait till Thursday's reporting  No action again |
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Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market,
Your whole argument fails here. BTCChina was established in 2011 after the $32 bubble. Bitcoin has been opening to Chinese since that was only $2 In early 2013 Bobby Lee joined tiny Shanghai-based BTC-China: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BTC_China With experience from other large companies, he apparently improved their marketing and operations. That seems to have coincided with the start of the early 2013 rally. Shanghai is a special economic zone of China; I don't know whether that was a limiting factor for further expansion of BTC-China in the rest of the coutry. In any case, Huobi and OKCoin later opened in Beijing, offering zero-fee trading. Again, the time of their opening (second half of 2013) seems to coincide with the start of the October-November rally, whose first signs are detectable in late September. (Looking at the daily volumes, it seems that they stole most of BTC-China's customers.) A couple of months ago, China had about 95% of the worlds trade volume. People have claimed that most of their volume was fake, but I have not seen any sign of that. (On the other hand, a large fraction of the volume in Western exchanges must be merely arbitrage with China.) And, even if half of the Chinese volume was fake, the other half would still be 90% of the world's total. As I just posted, until last month the Chinese traders were obviously setting the price, and the rest of the world was just following the,. (That may still be the case now, not clear yet.) All events are confounded The early 2013 rally followed block reward halve and the release the AVALON, the first ASIC The late 2013 rally started 10 days after the death of SilkRoad So I could say both rallies were triggered by improvement in fundamentals, not speculation |
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Indeed, and that is the problem: many external factors are sudden and unpredictable, and the magnitude of their effect is largely unpredictable as weel. But, in retrospect ,the causal connections are very clear.
One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government. One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move. And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars. On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch.
Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one. Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that?
It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing.
Your whole argument fails here. BTCChina was established in 2011 after the $32 bubble. Bitcoin has been opening to Chinese since that was only $2 |
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Updated. No real action since last update
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什么包裹？不会是炸弹吧
毒品, 手槍, 炸彈, 國防機密, 都有可能 想象力太丰富了 你有種就代收吧, 隨便一項也是死刑 |
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什么包裹？不会是炸弹吧
毒品, 手槍, 炸彈, 國防機密, 都有可能 |
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