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18421  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit yay or nay? come vote here. on: January 23, 2017, 07:30:11 PM
i was also with dynamic block but i've heard there are some problems, first of all is if an attacker is abusing the network by flooding it and increase the dynamic block momentarily, this will lead to some sort of centralization toward strong node

the other thing is to follow the monero project with its dynamic block, but it will change a bit the fundamental economy of bitcoin, making it inflate for a small amount like monero did

there are many ways to have a dynamic protocol

put short nodes FIRST have to accept a certain size for the network to happily accept without much/any orphan drama
next pools need to be rest assured that if pools made blocks bigger then current consensus it wont cause much/any orphan drama.

it is not as simple /silly as pools make bigger blocks if the mempool is overfilled due to an abuser flooding it..

firstly node need to flag their acceptance they can cope with Xmb.. then pools flag their intent to make anything upto xmb to give a prompt for the laggers to adjust to xmb or be left unsynced when pools deem it safe to move forward.

then when it meets a certain safe majority level pools dip their toe in the water.
EG imagine majority nodes flagged 2mb was ok.. pools then flagged a majority ok to make 2mb base blocks..
at a certain point pools 'test the water' by making a 1.001mb block to see the orphan risk, then the next block maybe 1.002mb and so on safely incrementing up, naturally with demand until whenever blocks get to be 2mb full due to demand.

its not going to be a 2 mb or a 1gigabyt by mindnight thing. nodes and pools will do it safely.

after all.. did pools and nodes jump from 0mb to 1mb overnight in 2009-2015.. nope.
after all.. did pools and nodes jump from 0.5mb to 1mb overnight in 2013-2015(after the sipa caused db fork event).. nope

it was natural and safe and orphan mitigating low risk movements.
18422  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Conversion Website on: January 23, 2017, 04:52:35 AM
Hi all.

I just wanted to announce, I have deployed more currencies. I now support:

USD, CAD, EUR, CNY, PHP, JPY, AUD, NZD, SGD, GBP, RUB, MXN, CHF, SEK, and INR currencies.

If theres any specific one you'd like added, let me know!

Hope you find it useful!


are these done using the exchanges that represent the currencies mentioned.
or
by targeting USD and converting to other currencies using a separate forex conversion from USD to the others.? (hoping the former and not the later
18423  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit yay or nay? come vote here. on: January 23, 2017, 04:18:38 AM
Thank you for giving us the correct information. Yes most of us here do not know the real technical details about Segwit but that is not our fault. It is also not our fault if we start to believe franky1's posts because he is really good to make himself look and appear smart to his targets. Please assign someone from the staff to explain Segwit more in the forum no matter how many times the topic is asked. Sometimes we do not get it all at once. We are not as smart as you guys. Please be patient with us.

if you read what gmaxwell wrote. not with a blind devotion of gmaxwell hat. but an methodical and open minded hat on you will see he avoided the critical context and was wishy washy about the critical stuff and just knit picked the stupidest things he can find.

EG arguing about version numbers.
EG arguing about how segwit nodes dont have to white list segwit nodes..

when my posts on previous page and even segwits own guide, were about whitelisting old nodes (downstream modules as gmaxwell wants to call them)

my post on previous page with the images explained how old (downstream) nodes wont accept segwit transactions. so segwit has to be the gate keeper(upstream) in the middle joining to the pool not randomly on the outside going through an old nodes.

but hey. i bet you just skimmed what he said and just thought "oh well its gmaxwell lets trust him"

gmaxwell has been known to slide around the truth and throw in buzzwords to make what one person says.

he tried to do it before when i said about his confidential payment codes CPC being upto 1kb+.. he said there was no such thing as a confidential payment code in confidential transactions,
but he soon shut up when i started using his buzzwords of his "confidential Pedersen commitments" CPC being 1kb+

so dont let him throw big words at you and make him side step the critical stuff. because he is known to sidestep issues and brush things under the carpet if you dont use his buzzwords

eg he will deny intentional splits but will agree if you call it a bilateral fork..

. in my reply to him you will see what i mean where he side steps the context of the critical stuff
18424  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit yay or nay? come vote here. on: January 23, 2017, 02:15:55 AM
what are the other solution now besides the hard fork to 2mb? if there are not any and we can not hard fork to 4mb/8mb because miners don't agree, and they either don't want to activate segwit, there is no solution in this

i remember that the miners were in agreement(at least the majority) with hard forking to 2mb at least, they changed their mind?

i think that this consensus mechanics is brokern, it should be in this way, if you have not a better solution you should agree with the best available one

segwit in regards to real scaling, is a temporary gesture.. a one time boost/stopgap
lets say it was a full release last april and it got activated by june last year.. by this month now. all of its advantages would have been seen and we would still be needing dynamic blocks now.

the best solution is for core to just release a dynamic block version along with segwit. and join the level playing field.

late 2015 core devs agreed to a plan of segwit mid 2016 and dynamic blocks by mid 2017
but in spring 2016.. core started back tracking saying nothing was agreed and they were just independent devs and had no ability to put code into bitcoin core in regards to dynamic blocks... (luke jr received alot of backlash because of that).

pools are not going to break the rules and push for something if nodes are not ready for it..
which core knows. so they have prevented having a dynamic block release. and now done their own temporary feature as soft... but shot their self in the foot because again pools wont push forward with a big change unless there is a big node acceptance. even if devs feel that nodes dont deserve a vote. pools are smart to know for validation security nodes have a place in the network.
hense why segwit is holding at 75% pools undecided about segwit
18425  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit yay or nay? come vote here. on: January 23, 2017, 01:34:25 AM

BUT before confirmation because it appears as signatureless tx (anyonecanspend) old nodes can cause issues.
Pre-segwit nodes know they don't understand segwit transactions so they simply do not relay or mine them.
 They don't cause any issues.
you literally said it in the same reply.. they do not relay them.. meaning its an issue..
if a segwit node connected to a old node and then the old node connects to a pool... the pool wont get the tx.. because the old node drops it.

segwit node-old node- pool

so this is where segwit has to mess with what it connects to, to ensure its tx's get relayed to a pool
old node-segwit node- pool

or to get past your padantic sidestepping.. segwit by default looks to find segwits first and then after activation it will have to white list old nodes
edit: old nodes(downstream) of the segwit node(upstream/gatekeeper)

The reason they do not relay or mine them is because segwit uses some intentionally constructed forward compatibility in the protocol, which was put in by Satoshi specifically to enable new signature systems.  They'll tolerate things using this forward extensibility when they show up in blocks, but because they can't completely judge the validity on their own, they don't mine them (or relay them) themselves.
a malicious pool could include it in a block and then spend it. hence why you fear making transaction now with p2wpkh keys right now.. and have not included the p2wpkh key generation for mainnet use in the versions you have released so far.

Quote
this is why 0.14(the implementation with p2wpkh and p2wsh key generation wallets) wont be released before activation.
0.14 will be released in Feburary/March and has nothing to do with segwit. Segwit support went into 0.13.1.

fine you are releasing something unrelated in 0.14.0. but 0.14.X or 0.15.X... whatever the version number will be that includes MAINNET utility of p2wpkh and p2wsh key generation wallets, wont be released until after segwit activation.
im kind of thinking your just being knit picky about the version number rather then the fact of the p2wpkh and p2wsh key generation wallets available only AFTER activation, context.
Quote
and then after activation, 0.14 wont connect with non-segwit nodes for relaying unconfirmed transactions to avoid the silly things that happen at unconfirmed relay level.
No, 0.14 is exactly the same as 0.13.1 with its connections and don't do anything special with relaying unconfirmed transactions.  Sounds like you are mixing up the behavior of 0.14 with the behavior of pre-segwit nodes.
again lets not play your version number knitpicky game (facepalm at ur fail)
the version with the p2wpkh and p2wsh key generation wallets, AFTER activation will ensure there is a path from a segwit node to a pool because as you yourself said old nodes have issues and wont relay segwit unconfirmed tx's (red text at top)

Quote
they could connect to old nodes and just relay old transactions. but lets be honest segwit-node users wont bother doing all the setting changes to mix and match tx's. so will just connect to segwit nodes to make things simple

The behavior of segwit enabled nodes is no mystery. The software has been complete for almost a year now, and has been running on the majority of the nodes on the network is months.  They don't "whitelist segwit nodes" to make things simple or otherwise.
right now segwit is not activated so nothing now needs to change as there is only one varient of data being created right noe..
but in the context of after activation..

the context of it is instead of white listing OLD nodes as special and then send the blocks in a format old nodes understand. they will just connect to other segwit nodes and let the pools send whichever version block needs to go to whichever version node.
i even quoted the guide that says it too.. where messing with old nodes is a hassle(needing to white list old nodes.. so human psychology is that people wont whitelist old nodes but prefer segwit nodes.
you are really chomping hard at the bottom of the barrel of words.. rather then being honest of the context.

Quote
segwit will divide the network at unconfirmed tx relay level
To avoid any instantaneous disruption of the network topology segwit nodes make no changes to their connection behavior when segwit activates. So if they would divide the network, it would already be divided.  ... though considering that over 61% of listening nodes are segwit, it would be impossible for them to 'divide' the network in two even if their behavior were like you inaccurately describe it.

yes your segwit nodes are already avoiding connecting to older nodes(even when right now its not nessessary).. i hear many people shouting loudly how they are not white listing old nodes already.
oh im inaccurate because my image was a 50/50 but i bet your claim is that its not a 50/50 because you see 61%... (facepalm).. the context is that old nodes and new nodes are not going to interact as much..
again knick pick the numbers if you want... but atleast try to aim at being honest with the context. because it is a failure of your honesty and a failure of you actually making a point by side stepping the context with silly knitpicks.

Quote
technically its all the 'same network' (due to all nodes connecting to a pool), but the nodes become more biased to only communicate with their own kind. where it becomes more work for a pool to send out 2 different variants of a block. --witness
Nope. No more block versions are sent out, if someone wants a stripped block they get a stripped block. But every node creates stripped blocks for non-segwit peers that want them, and in no case does two versions need to be sent to any peer.
you again are petty knitpicking.. i never said a node RECEIVES 2 variants.. i said a pool or a node that has been generous to white list old nodes. has to CREATE 2 varients (your buzzwords, stripped and unstripped). sending one varient to new and one variant to old..
petty knit picker. you have still not said anything that makes a point that differs. you are just swapping common speech for your buzzwords

Quote
again core will try to advertise the need to get nodes to upgrade to gain more connections and be more part of their side of the network (although in their half truth twisting of words is one network)
And yet no such 'advertisement' has happened or is necessary.   That might have been the case if there was risk of segwit activating with only a couple percent of nodes being upgraded, but a couple percent was passed in the first few hours of 0.13.1's release.
so because you have enough gatekeepers old nodes are meaningless to you
if segwit activates and lets say nodes stayed at under XX%.. by looking at the context of your reply. seems you will just leave oldnodes reliant on the very few generous segwit nodes and pools that do white list old nodes. but not care much about old nodes being part of the network because segwit are the gate keepers

Quote
this is why it should have been a proper network consensus rather than a emulated consensus of just the pools, so that by being a full network consensus before pools, allows the nodes to be ready and fully compatible rather than just SPV compatible to segwit
Again, 61% of reachable nodes. If a consensus of nodes were all that were required-- that would have long since been passed. But softforks do not require nodes beyond a bare minimum. They're safe with just mining.

so your context is that old nodes are not important. and ok to ignore old nodes..
oh and as for bare minimum of segwit nodes.. shall we let you retry you explaining the relaying of unconfirmed transactions needed to ensure segwit transactions reach a pool (instead of your side stepping the concept to argue about the number version).

Quote
as you can see by segwits own guide. if not upgrading they want you to set up another node to 'filter' your unupgraded node through a segwit node (facepalm) when sending old tx's but you wont receive new tx's. it also allows segwit nodes to be the controller of what becomes a 'valid block' or not. rather than the old node doing independent checks

The guide is also quite specific that you have the freedom to do nothing.  If you want segwit validation for the strongest security you can also get it without modifying your existing software and risking disruption of your operation.
yes you can run a old node without changing. but ur relying on segwit nodes to do the gate keeper duties. and filtering data to an old node.
if you had integrity, you would actually inform people their old node is not full validating.
if you had integrity, you would actually inform people their old node is reliant on a sgwit node being the gate keeper.
you wouldnt just stroke peoples heads and tell them its ok to be treated as second class like its nothing.

This is pure flexibility that you have from a softfork, a free choice you can make or not make, which is ripped away from you by hardforks. In a hardfork you cannot retain your existing infrastructure at all, you must replace it with upgraded software which may be incompatible with the customizations and downstream modules you already have running.

a hard fork using consensus only activates with high majority. and i personally have been honest to say that old nodes not upgrading will be left unsynced.. yes its harsh. but atleast its honest.

side node.. "downstream modules".. is that what your buzzword is for the older nodes your segwit nodes have to whitelist. while segwit use the upstream modules buzzword i called the gatekeepers.. ill remember that.
18426  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 95% lol. No chance. SegWit is now dead. on: January 22, 2017, 11:58:11 PM
there is no final solution, even with dynamic everything you hit hardware limitations, and in case of Bitcoin there is no easy solution, this coin is so big any kind of hard fork will generate an altcoin like what happened with etherium, a softfork is the "easier" solution but please prove me wrong and hard fork, bigger blocks would be nice but it will generate another coin because it will be contentious, its like Windows, every new version instantly makes the older version its biggest competitor.

it wont activate unless there is consensus.. it wont create an altcoin. please research more and stop reading scripted scare stories by those in the blockstream camp that want intentional splits.

put it this way right now nodes can have any blocksize setting they please. 2mb 4mb 8mb 3.5mb randomnumber, etc etc. and everything carries on
yep all the nodes with upto 8mb in their setting can still happily accept 1mb blocks because the rule is anything below 8mb is acceptable. again for emphasis, they can happily accept 1mb and no rule is broken.

but until the majority of nodes accept X... pools wont even risk agreeing to X.. so there is no contention..
worse case is orphan risk.. but ultimately one chain(after orphan drama subsides) if pools pushed at a low consensus..

again for emphasis
pools wont make changes, unless there is majority consensus that their attempt will be accepted and not rejected by the nodes..

this is why 75% of pools are undecided about softforks. because they can see nodes are not ready.
even though in a softfork, user nodes are not given a vote. the pools(their smart independent brains and eyes) still need to see that nodes wont have a problem, to ensure pools get paid rather than work hard for nothing.
18427  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Master guide on: January 22, 2017, 11:03:15 PM

Question about orphans: Since they are blocks that are not part of the main chain, due to another hash getting a higher number of confirmations, does this mean that the transactions are lost, or are they placed back in the transaction pool, ready to be placed once more?
yes the transactions are put back into the mempool.
imagine block A and block B got solved at same time..

because 2 different pools done the blocks and indepentdantly decided what their block added.. some of the same tx's would be in each other block. and some transactions may differ.. eg pool B decided to accept some fee free transactions but pool A decided to mainly look at the high price and some tx's middle priced would be in both..

lets say A got orphaned for a reason.
A puts all transactions back into mempool and then looks at B and sees whats confirmed to know which transactions to not handle in A's next attempt because B confirmed them

My current understanding is that miners mine the same block of transactions consisting of a Block header (80kb of hash data), Block Body (1mb of transaction data) and a nonce, which they use to reach a correct hash.

miners (ASICS) dont handle or see the full 1mb of data.. they just get the hash of that data and then rehash it with a nonce until it creates a new hash which meets the solution requiring a certain amount of 0's at the start of the new hash.

This would suggest that orphaned blocks are a concern only for miners, but not for the network and its users, since the network naturally follows the longest chain and the transaction gets mined anyways.

once an asic finds a hash solution.. it is just handed another hash (new block attempt) to start.. asics dont care about tx data. they just re-hash whatever hash they are handed.. in short asics(miners) dont validate and check transactions

if the pool gets told to orphan the full block the pool handed out to the network because of a problem. the pool then makes a new block hash based on new block data and sends the hash to the asics to start again.

what asics only see as negative is the wasted time working on something that ultimately didnt end in the network longterm, thus no pay for the wasted time.

Double-spending attacks should be of no concern, since the orphaned block eventually falls off and is forever forgotten by the network.
double spends are a concern to the network because the block is sent out to the network and then thrown out if it was a bad block or a better block was preferred.

so while on the network for those couple seconds or more.. some merchants may have ticked a box to say 'yep confirmed' and released goods/services/fiat to the customer.. then 2seconds or more later.. that block is gone. but the goods/services/fiat is already handed to the customer...

usually in 99.996%-99.75% the tx they thought was confirmed sits back as unconfirmed again until included in the next block so no harm done ultimately but just waiting to reconfirm....
but
as said in previous post (on a good no drama day) in 0.004% or 0.25% chance of the tx not being added to the next block for either malicious reason or unintentionally struck off by how the network works.

(note there are other ways to mess with tx's in an orphan event. but lets not complicate things)

this small under 1% risk is lowest odds. and not strict numbers they are variable. for instance when there is a new feature being added (code rule) like the current 95% soft fork. could result in 5% orphans occurring(higher risk) and many malicious people may increase their malicious attempts ontop due to the "perfect storm to go on a riot" mindset. so it could end up being over 5% risk instead of one 2500th of 1% risk of malicious intent..  or due to the higher blocks.. less 'free transactions' get accepted so the risk of a free transaction not getting re-confirmed becomes riskier.

so its still a risk and worth waiting a few blocks
like some say 1confirm for small amounts (coffee value) 6 confirms (car/house value) during normal no drama transacting.



the terminology was that if there is a bad block found that has no competing better block yet. its just called a rejected/invalid block.
however if after getting the block(a1) a new block is built ontop(a2).. but later a competing block(b1)+(b2) has something preferable where the network has to orphan (a2) because (b2) was linked to a different previous block(b1), making (a1 <-the parent) get rejected thus (a2) is the orphan because it lost its parent.

though, these days we use the term 'orphan' for any block that initially had a solution but then thrown away and something else that takes its place for multiple reasons. whther the network had to reject any parents or not.

there have been times in the past where a block with SEVERAL parents(previous blocks) gets orphaned/rejected off in preference of a better chain of blocks

hense the 6confirm mindset many people have, because a chain of 5 blocks can ALL get orphaned as it has happened before.

usually during feature activation events (the day segwit or dynamic blocks reaches 95% to activate) the orphan risk is higher so some say maybe wait 10 confirms for house value amounts.

lets say there was a 51% attack or a controversial activation of a rule (very high orphan risk) some people will say wait 72-144 blocks (12-24 hours) before trusting
18428  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit vs Bitcoin unlimited on: January 22, 2017, 10:23:09 PM
The biggest difference is: who controls the Core project, and who controls the Unlimited source code. That's what the whole fight is about, who controls the reference code.

And if the network rules do change, it's not because a developer made it happen, it's because the users did.  People keep talking about "hostile takeovers" and "power grabs" as if they simply can't comprehend this fact.

by going soft they went against node consensus.. thus its only having to convince 20 pool managers into a limited consensus, instead of 5600 node users..

this is another reason pools think soft is wrong because its pushing something nodes are not ready for, and it can change the network dynamics. but because its the pools that decide.

the devs however can take the glory if everything works, saying 'see soft is better'
BUT devs can blame it on the pools if it goes wrong. saying 'well they consented to it, they activated it'
18429  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: One of the problems Bitcoin help to solve on: January 22, 2017, 10:12:16 PM
I guess to some part of the world especially on the developing country, Bitcoin help to reduce unemployment because Bitcoin opens a new horizons of opportunity especially to those who are into freelancing jobs.
not when the fee is more than an hours labour in those same developing countries


As for that wristband, that would be cool if implemented but wouldn't it be the next target of snatchers?  Once they knew about it and seen it wearing around the streets, there might be no issue on the transaction security but it might compromise the person wearing the gadget.  I see it very cool but at the same time worries on the person wearing it.

less risk than pickpocketing your debit card or phone. because its on your arm so you would notice someone playing with your arm more so the someone sliding hand in back pocket
18430  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: One of the problems Bitcoin help to solve on: January 22, 2017, 09:29:55 PM
Not sure where you got this picture, or how old it is, but the ideia is indeed out there, for a long time, and it's already built (or at least partially built), just not commercialized.

Any clues regarding what happened to this?

i came up with the wristband concept and created the image during my exploration of what the banks are doing to update themselves (barclays UK wristband) and barclays getting involved in hyperledger)

i have thrown a few concepts out into the community to let people grab if they want to develop.

but cant remember seeing "sigsafe", in the past, even though i been around since 2012..

maybe the guy from sigsafe should work with the hardware wallet teams and restart his project as more of a smartwatch or just launching it as the keyfob.

as i feel that noob/non-techy people would find 'touchless' pay beneficial compared to current bitcoin payment methods.
as i feel the requirement of current hardwallets needing usb and browser extentions, are missing the point of airgapped utility.

good find though. Cheesy cheers seems im not the only one thinking outside of the box

18431  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit vs Bitcoin unlimited on: January 22, 2017, 08:50:21 PM
everyone ignore the troll with the initials C B
he does not know the difference between a consensus fork and a intentional split

especially when its only been core that have been begging everyone else to intensionally split(bilateral)
kind of foolish for him to bait a reply with twisting the rhetoric of who wants what, by pretending its the community wanting it when its obviously the segwit fans..

a hard fork is just an empty umbrella term that has several subcategories.. a hard fork buzzword is meaningless if you dont understand which subcategory has been proposed.

softfork: consensus - >94% pools no banning/intent of minority. result: small 5% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced and dead
softfork: controversial - >50% pools no banning/intent of minority. result: long big% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced and dead
softfork: bilateral - intentionally ignoring/banning opposing rules and not including them. result: 2 chains

hardfork: consensus - >94% nodes, then >94% pools no banning/intent of minority. result: 5% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced / dead
hardfork: controversial - >50% nodes, then >50% pools no banning/intent of minority. result: big% orphan drama then one chain. minority unsynced / dead
hardfork: bilateral - intentionally ignoring/banning opposing rules and not including them. result: 2 chains

funny how when they say softfork they use best case scenario.
funny how when they say hardfork they use worse case scenario. as if worse case is the plan, when its not.

the community want in general "consensus", preferable one where nodes have involvement (harder to achieve).
18432  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: This difficulty adjustment On 1/22/2017 is historical for the following reason. on: January 22, 2017, 08:13:05 PM
not that surprising.. it was well announced.
"bitmain new xinjiang farm"

i remember in november/december antpool(bitmain) announcing they were adding a new farm. which would be live by december.
they were at about ~330phash then. now at 500peta.



18433  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Master guide on: January 22, 2017, 07:58:38 PM
Hey Franky1,

Would you like to elaborate on the risk? What exactly is at risk? Are we talking about the chance that a block is going to get orphaned, or that the sender is executing a race attack? https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Double-spending#Race_attack

For me, reading your feedback establishes that you are indeed talking about the risk for a double spending attack occurring in any transaction. I've made some additional changes to this section that cautions the reader to learn more about these attacks. The risk evaluation seems arbitrary to me and I would love it if you could further explain so that I could better understand and transmit the knowledge to readers down the line.

In regards to CLTV and CSV, since they are utilized to establish payment channels between multiple parties, while retaining the ability for one to send back his BTC in the absence of a signature on the transaction. What would be the main ways that an attack can be realized through the use of these features?

Also, is there an easy way for a person to check Tx maturity? How would a newbie go about to check if transaction maturity has expired?

I've changed the part of the guide that claimed 100% valid transactions into a transaction safe from an attack.

Thanks for your feedback and support. Through active members in the community, just like you, we can create a valuable resource that will satisfy the information needs of generations of Bitcoiners to come.

orphan risk can lead to double spend attack as you say. so you are near spot on. especially if while orphaned a mallicious spender then uses RBF to strike off the then (re-)unconfirmed tx before its put into a new block. to substitute it with another tx where the values/destinations differ
(more so the finney attack on the next paragraph after the 'race attack' you linked, but with new features like RBF which wasnt around in hal finneys time, to make it more possible to adjust transactions when an orphan occurs).

but not to try confusing the matter more.. the reason i say 'not quite', 'more so' and 'near spot on'. is that on a usual day is 1% of orphan. the risk of a finney attack is 0.0004%.. (because you only care about 1tx of the whole block. so chances is one 2500th of 1%)
there are other things..  like someone that didnt pay a fee getting into a block.. but if that block orphans it again sits as unconfirmed but may not get into another block due to no fee.. risk of this is could be 0.25% (if pools use old preference of 25% of a block has no fee, divided by orphan risk)
there are many ways that tx's cant be trusted. not just maliciously. but also unintentionally struck off by how the network works.
but now thats getting too detailed of the behind the scenes where things are no longer static but variable and confusing
 

as for CLTV and CSV
firstly while unsettled (inside LN) CLTV and CSV are not penalties. they are just terms of agreement. but when broadcast. the tx is confirmed onchain.. and the CLTV is a maturity period (like the block rewards 100 confirm waiting period 'maturity') where it cannot be spent. and the CSV is a special output that the second party can spend the intended recipients funds before the maturity expires.

so even though its confirmed on chain the intended recipient cant spend it until matured and is at risk of the other party revoking it during maturity.

this is like paypal or a bank having a 3-5 day 'clearing period' and a chargeback able to occur in that time.
so even if you see its confirmed but unspendable, lik the bank saying unavailable balance and separately available balance. dont presume your guaranteed that 'unavailable' money until its available.

im sure all the block explorers will update their graphic user interfaces to alert people if a tx contains CLTV and CSV.. but for now it has to be done manually by knowing what to look for in the raw data
18434  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit vs Bitcoin unlimited on: January 22, 2017, 07:11:20 PM

gmaxwell has already stated he is ok with causing a network split below 95% just to get his softwork activated
If there is some reason when the users of Bitcoin would rather have it activate at 90%  ... then even with the 95% rule the network could choose to activate it at 90% just by orphaning the blocks of the non-supporters until 95%+ of the remaining blocks signalled activation.


You technically need over 50% to activate SegWit via orphaning other blocks. But I agree it would split the coin because you would piss off good fraction of Bitcoin users (lot of individual miners losing money, plus those who oppose dirty methods to achieve something) if the activation goes through orphaning attack.

read my post again .. edited to further clarify
"just to clear the terminology up
orphaning off a block not because its invalid but because of which pool sent it. is controversial because its not an invalid block. meaning different nodes are accepting different blocks. this causes orphan drama (which will eventually sort itself out to one chain with the minor chain unable to sync)
[this is a contraversial fork that just creates orphan drama then settle down as one chain,  and minority unsynced from network]

that then [can] lead to needing to ignore the opposing nodes too [if you want the minor chain to start building its own chain without orphaning.. or if the major chain doesnt want to see the minor chain endlessly requesting and rejecting blocks.]
this is not consensus, [nor controversial, this is a intentional split aka bilateral fork]

consensus is agreement to accept the same data and same rules where the majority accept all the valid blocks (without any biased pickyness) leaving the minority simply unable to sync [ignoring blocks and nodes simply due to a 'brand war' leads to an intentional split] "
18435  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Master guide on: January 22, 2017, 06:55:20 PM
errr..

"In order to protect your long-term interest when making Bitcoin transactions, it’s important to wait for at least six network confirmations before deciding that the transaction is 100% valid. As a rule of thumb, the security of any individual transaction is closely related to its age, with older transactions being far more resistant to change when compared to new transactions."

still not completely correct.

"In order to protect your long-term interest when making Bitcoin transactions, it’s important to wait for at least enough confirmations before deciding the risk is negligible. As a rule of thumb, the security of any individual transaction is closely related to its age, with older transactions being far more resistant to change when compared to new transactions. the risk is 1%-5% dependant events, features update periods, so 6 confirms would be advised for larger value transactions"
..
the 1-5% explains and covers the reasons for 6% and also what to do at a 95% (5% risk event)
separately..
because CLTV and CSV is an actual feature compared to previous years. its important to mention tx maturity.. especially when its going to be used alot more by the time your guide gets popular.

maybe add,
"if your transaction has been involved in a locked-in contract such as a side service like Lightning, usually the expiration of maturity occurs after more than 6 confirms. but dont trust it as valid/guaranteed until the maturity expires."

p.s
no need to name drop. just ensure if its a master guide it's not glossing over the important bits people need to know
18436  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do America and England follow bitcoin? on: January 22, 2017, 06:27:51 PM

China or whatever.


can people stop thinking china is a power house

lets simplify it

eastern exchanges: 1 person  moving 12.5btc day-trading every 30 seconds = 36,000btc "trade volume" but only 12.5btc holding
vs
western exchanges: 100 people each moving 0.01btc daytrading ever 30 seconds = 2,880btc "trade volume" but only 100x 0.01btc holding (btc)

ok.. keep that concept in mind.

now imagine out of the coins created by pools 1800btc.. where the top 6 eastern pools (50%) only put 10% in public markets (6 people 90btc combined)
imagine westerners 10btc make it to public markets and are handled by 1000 people with 0.01each (1000 people 10btc combined)

eastern: 90btc moving every 30 seconds= 259,200btc volume but only 1.5btc per person with only 6 people
vs
western: 10btc moving every 30 seconds= 28,800btc volume but only 0.01btc per person with 1000 people


so i done it twice because people think small numbers of first example is not representative of reality.. so second example is larger numbers..
but the point is volume does NOT = more users/better adoption/ more popularity / whole country involvement.
18437  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit / BU? Either/Or? on: January 22, 2017, 05:38:31 PM
Whatever takes it for Bitcoin to scale... I'm most likely up for it, and a mix of these two things (or something similar) seems to be the solution long term. SegWit can only scale so far, and maybe one day 8MB will be very limited too.

EG dynamic blocks starting 2mb base 4mb weight as default start. making both core and the community happy and then the community raise the limit when they want and need to without dev intervention/prevention.
nodes flag what they are capable of and it moves when the majority of nodes can handle it.

thus natural progressive growth and not the misinformed large leaps to gigabyte blocks by midnight false rhetoric.

everyone is happy
18438  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SegWit / BU? Either/Or? on: January 22, 2017, 05:35:20 PM
segwit AND dynamic blocks.

which is also something nodes with 8mb max would accept.

by doing dynamic blocks the community get the consensus to up the blocksize naturally when requires and copable.. rather than having to play another oliver twist "please sir can i have some more" game with devs in a few years if it was just a fixed dev handed limit
18439  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do America and England follow bitcoin? on: January 22, 2017, 05:19:12 PM
I live in the UK and whilst we may be a power house when it comes to bitcoin, it is still a fringe technology which the average person has either never heard of or knows very little about.  Undecided

Abit concerned about what franky says regarding African countries not being able to use bitcoin due to TX fees, to day i went to sweep a paper wallet and was shocked that it was costing 0.84 pence compared to 0.08p 2 months ago.  so i can understand their predicament.  

yep
4pence UK is an hours labour in Cuba.
84pence UK is 21 hours labour in Cuba.

so while bigname developers in america pretend that while getting $1m a year from blockstream $480 an hour. they have lost sight that $0.75 is alot. they see it as less than 1second of labour.
so while volunteer in america pretend that while getting $7.50 a hour from their day jobs. they have lost sight that $0.75 is alot. they see it as less than 6 minutes of labour. they even down play it that bitcoin is 'normally' 8cents which is about 30seconds of labour.

they cant see the big international picture
18440  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Who is Satoshi? Why did he hide his identity? on: January 22, 2017, 04:55:06 PM
the entity using the satoshi pseudonym is one person. that is established.

Any conclusive investigations regarding if he was indeed a single entity or not?

because people have talked to him via email, on forums and IRC during 2008-2010. people have also analysed his written messages and all are saying it was one person using that pseudonym.
and yes this also means he was a sane person with no multiple personality disorders.

but like i said other people with other paeudonyms helped him develop and debug bitcoin.
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