the OP's tx is in block 447934

from blockchain.info's prospective its not linked to orphans. i would say its just blockchain.info having a glitch. it happens from time to time,

usually best to bookmark several 'blockchain explorers' and do comparisons rather than relying on one source of info

but investments can be a tax write off if a loss it made.

EG put it into a "foundation" and you already save ~20% by not paying tax on profit(corporation tax) as its wrote off before its even made 'returns'. just by putting it into a foundation (AKA linux foundation)

then if you make a loss you can offset the loss of one investment against other investments that profit to average down the profit and pay less tax on the eventual profits of all investments longterm.

so its more like
0% make a loss 70% break even and 30% profit.

but with that said. inviting bankers into a closed door event. will have obvious hand shaking and ass kissing for the devs that love their millions of fiat income.

again bitcoins mainnet should not become a reserve currency as thats just pushing it into the background and using LN/crapcoins as the front-end.

as for saying bitcoins mainnet cant scale. and then twisting the plot to suggest that if it could scale it would still be a reserve currency in the background is foolish.

bitcoins mainnet can scale as a front-end payment network, but you need to wash away the failed doomsdays scripts you may have read that it needs XXgb blocks by tomorrow.

instead put a rational/logical hat on and realise that bitcoins mainnet should make baby steps forward periodically to expand naturally.. we are not gonna get 7billion people in a day.. its a years-decades scaling not a one day superman jump to extremes.

these safe onchain scaling babysteps should have happened last year. but instead it has been halted using fear of superman flights.

analogy:
yes babies should not take thier first baby steps because mummy and daddy fear the baby will run into a car withinin 10 years. so lets fearmunger all parents that all babies that take their first step will guarantee to run into a car tomorrow. so wrap up your baby and tie it to a cot. and call it your reserve baby. and then adopt a second child to be the one you push around the streets

also wash away the concept that bitcoin will become the 'one world' currency' for 7billion people.. instead think about the current 0.0266% using bitcoin and imagine it settling at about 1-5% of world population(after NATURAL not SUPERMAN growth). definetly dont assume 100% uptake. as that then becomes no 'free choice' option if its the only one.

1. but if bitcoin is not a front end currency because its utility has been taken away and pushed into the background.. all people end up using is permissioned services like LN. where you have to hand funds into a multisig and need the hub manager to sign off on all of your transactions... does not sound better to me

2. 99% of population in the fiat economy are using government funding without knowing how it works. they wont jump across to anything else, so dont be fooled into thinking that the governments will just disappear because bitcoin has been pushed into the background. yea pushed into the background .. i said it.. by making bitcoin a reserve currency pushes it away from peoples ability to get their hands on even more, pushes it away from peoples ability to use daily.

wake up people

altcoins are crapcoins.. and making bitcoin no longer the useful front-end coin by becoming the hidden reserve currency of crapcoins is not the future we want.

and while we stupidly let devs dismantle bitcoins front-end utility, the same devs are helping the real IMF with their hyperledger to build the real SDR reserve currency and world finance ledgers (controlled by banks)

seriously wake up and stop thinking that taking bitcoins front-end utility away is a good thing

we are ahead of schedule.

side note rewards stop at the year 2141.. just to help you realise where you were getting your "140" number from*

based on 2016 blocks that are meant to average fortnightly. and the number of weeks to get to 210,000 blockheight (block reward halving session)
the maths works out to suggest the schedule is 4years and 2 days and 8 hours per reward halving

this would have made the first reward halving occur january 5th 2013. but we were a month and 5 days ahead at the first reward halving late 2012

this would have made the second reward halving occur january 7th 2017. it happened on 9th of july last year. meaning we are now over 6 months ahead.

imagining say an average 3 monthly differential every block halving. it could reach maxcap about 8 years earlier

if you want to do some maths.

in total there are 32 block reward halvings before maxcap,
each reward halving happening every 4 years=128..
then add on 4 years of the last session that DOES Not lead to a halving =132

*giving you 2141 from the 2009 genesis(beginning)

then you just think up a rational number of how many months gain per reward halving occurs, due to the difficulty adjustment not quite pegging the hashrate right. and deduct it.

basically if you think we will average 1month gain per halving on average. it equates to 2 years 8 months before january 2141
1month/halving=~ april 2138
2month/halving=~ august 2135
3month/halving=~ january 2133
4month/halving=~ april 2120
5month/halving=~ august 2127
6month/halving=~ january 2125  
 

put it this way

in 2009 we knew what the scarcity limit was: 21m
boom. no more.... its a fixed amount, no surprises.. no shocks.. nothing up its sleaves.. hence LIMIT

now imagine 2 words.. scarcity... and scarce.
now please take a breather and realise.. these are 2 different words with 2 meanings. even if they look similar, they mean different things.
you may be mind blown. so take some time and have a coffee..
 ..
ok now then
how scarce<->abundant is the supply and demand question WITHIN.
again dont confuse scarce and scarcity.. might be worth having another sip of coffee and let your thoughts play it out a little longer
 ..
ok now then
how scarce<->abundant is the supply and demand question WITHIN.
 ..
so,
even on day 1 of bitcoin in 2009 we know the scarcity limit..
and separately we want to think about how scarce<->abundant bitcoin is
 ..
remember this is where we are talking about supply and demand.. not scarcity limit
remember supply and demand is speculative
 ..
well even on day 1 there were only a few coins and only a couple people held them thus dominating circulation.. so some would say scarce..
but, yes here is the but.. (remember the supply demand/scarce<->abundance  is just subjective and speculative)
no one was trading, people were just accumulating them for little to no work. so others would say abundant. especially if there were still 20,999,xxx coins to go
 ..
now we move onto a different day, different amount of coins being shared. people start competing over them and the 'bitcoin pizza' proves bitcoin has utility. the sliding scale shifts abit, but its speculative with differing mindsets on both sides

fast forward 7 years. mega mining farms.. 300,000+ merchants.. 2mill plus users.. from a macro nation overview of the whole thing now its treated as speculatively scarce by many people.. but.. abundant by others.(more claim scarce than abundant)
again we both agreed scarce<->abundant is subjective/speculative

here is the kicker
although thinking about it from the whole network view in last sentence, inside an exchange is a micro nation of speculation where supply and demand is at a fight.. most dont know about the supply within an exchange. so its more of a game around the reasons for or against demand..

so now we separate the argument about supply..... where your rhetoric of trying to highlight scarcity drops away and becomes unimportant..

and we move onto the reasons for or against demand..
so demand.

people desire it because they can spend it, move it hold it. get things for it make profit from it.
people dont desire it if it costs to much to have, costs to much to spend, isnt easy to use.

which are all about utility..

take away utility then demand dries up
if demand dries up those holding the supply drop their prices to try getting shot of it before they lose to much if they see no future plans for increased/new utility.
snowball effect

i corrected your post.
i see where you are trying to slide words in to confuse the matter to then twist the matter to then ultimately say what i originally said but you would say im wrong because of the words YOU slipped in. i see your game. nice try though

21M bitcoins is the scarcity limit

we both agreed that scarce<->abundance is the measure within the limit
scarce<->abundance AKA the measure within AKA supply/demand is the measure of scarcity

but no one takes much notice about supply. because they cannot say exactly how much supply an exchange they are using actually has or how much % of circulation or the end limit that works out as.

all they care about is the demand. which is derived from UTILITY
have a nice day

now back to the topic
UTILITY creates value, lack of UTILITY removes value

which is where i said being scarce.. abundant.. is a separate detail to scarcity.. where scarcity is a sliding scale

my reasoning is not that. i stated a few posts ago.. bitcoins limit is known. has been known since day one.
the scarce<->abundance is separate question within the sliding scale.

my approach?? lol sorry but your the trying to confuse the matter. by ultimately saying im wrong but then saying the exact same thing i said to claim your right.


seems your trying hard to muddy the water..

things can have scarcity..
but how scarce<->abundant is a separate question (remember the WITHIN word you failed to pick up on)
also yes scarce<->abundant is an abstract concept.. hense why in earlier posts i was saying no one cares much about it and its UTILITY thats important.

but if you think no one should talk about utility (the important thing) until they circle jerk you about less important things.. then you are a fool

now lets just drop this unimportant scarcity meander you have rabbit holed down. and get back on topic.

UTILITY creates value, lack of UTILITY removes value

im more of a traditionalist.
if i cant afford something then i dont buy it. if i want something then i use my own savings to buy it.
ive never been into becoming a slave to a bank while making them profit

---

i know how banks do it. because you need to nearly sign your life away first. they even create the money(money out of nowhere by signing a credit agreement) so that its still a no risk game, even if you do default. they never lose even if you default at day 1.
they even sell the agreement onto debt collectors so its no cost to them chasing you, and instead let a debt collector chase you. while the bank takes the agreement sale (pennies on the dollar) as their profit. they(debt collector) only chase you with a wet fish to take your house, as more of a deterrent to others aswell as to make sure they(debt collector) breaks even/gets profit.

---

but in a decentralised world where your thousands of miles away, and costs to slap someone with a wet fish are higher. the scam risk is higher.
and if someone did have collateral.. the problem then becomes how to secure it.

which is where i was more thinking about stupid examples around the forum i have seen, where people use their forum username as collateral. or a picture of a car they say they own (i was facepalming reading those)

---

yes altcoins are an option but you would need to ask for alot more altcoin value than the loan request is for. because (thinking about repayment) if the loanee took the loan but the altcoin he then wants to buy did not rise to sell for profit to repay you. you not only dont get repaid. but you also lose because the price did not rise.. meaning it fell so the collateral is worth less that the time of the agreement.

its a sheep mentality.

there are several exchanges in 'eastern world' and several in the 'western world'

logically if a genuine price drop happens in the east, you would expect the people in the east to move coins to the west to sell at the still higher price. meaning due to the delays of arbitrage caused by confirm times you would see a change in the wests prices 10minutes+ later.

this would be a true indication of real market trading.

but when you analyse the charts of exchange results combined. the sheep follow the east far sooner than natural arbitrage times.
this is either the exchanges sharing reserves and instantly arbitraging with their back door method (elements), for the western exchange owner to be the first mover profiteer. leaving the sheep on the losing end.
or
its not the exchanges secretly taking first mover profits using private reserves, and instead its users "emotionally reacting" like sheep instantly (not a result of arbitrage, only panic,worry), rather than "financially affecting" smartly(arbitraging) delayed following.

as for everyone continuing to think all 1.3billion chinese are bitcoin holders or they are all colluding..

what if i told you out of 1.3billion chinese. it was only a few hundred people all with under 1btc each, using bots to trade multiple times a day.
eg imagine 100 people with 0.3btc each.

and they traded once every 6 minutes each (100 times a day each).. the daily volume is 3000btc
imagine they had 3btc and a bot that trades every 36 seconds(1000 times a day).. the daily volume is 300,000btc

it does not mean there needs to be.. nor mean there are millions or billions of asian bitcoiners.. just a few hundred
it does not mean there are bitcoiners each holding 2000btc each trading daily.

i would only cry wolf if we seen 2000(random large whale number so dont knitpick) being traded every few seconds/minutes.
but the trade history is not showing this.

i know the western exchanges want someone to blame. but the western exchanges shouldn't EMOTIONALLY sheep follow the east.

instead of trying to make the east look bad by saying its the whole countries fault. because then you are only crying into your own hands to try making yourself feel better, but not actually understanding the issue to make sure you can guard yourself from it in the future.

best advice dont point fingers in different directions while crying. instead man up be responsible for your own funds and realise a price drop is not a death sentance but a discount day to buy in cheaper and average down

did you look at the trade history image.. right column.. trades under 1btc...
they are not large 1000btc trades per hit..

as for 10's of thousands of chinese trading.......... well thats still not 1.3billion.. so lets not continue the endless racism of thinking "china"(whole country) own/control bitcoin

when we all know its only a small percentage playing with small amounts repeatedly.

i would cry wolf only if you see trade history results of 10-1000btc+ every few minutes.
these small 0.xbtc orders happening is not "china (the country) own bitcoin"

bitcoin is not a commodity.
a commodity is a raw product used to create other products.
EG crude oil =fuel, plastics
EG gold= jewellery, circuits

gold specifically sits on MULTIPLE markets because it has multiple USES/desires/demands for it. dont confuse golds commodity(manufacturing industry) market as the same thing as its asset value(speculative investment financial industry)

bitcoin is an asset currency. not a commodity. but if it loses its utility of being an active currency and just sits on some hardware wallet, much like a bearerbond. (which is still a currency but not an active currency). then its value dies because it lacks something concrete backing it. meaning the asset value declines.. which snowballs down

i think somewhere along the lines you have ignored me saying UTILITY is important. not scarcity.
also scarcity is a sliding scale from scarce to abundant..
which is more of a local/real ability to get your hands on/availability thing.

having scarcity is a limit of production.. but how scarce or abundant is a separate question.
also i said that "the latter is defined though supply and demand"

this is not a fight over who got the answer right first, but it seems your trying hard to make it sound like i think scarcity is important when in MANY posts i have said UTILITY is important.. so i dont know why you are meandering down the 'scarcity' rabbithole..

but getting to the point. UTILITY means/affects value, not scarcity

most traders dont even know the exact number of coins in circulation. nor the supply in an exchange.. they only think about the demand and desire aspect of the speculation.

which UTILITY has the major impact on

what if i was to blow your mind and say that OKcoins 30k volume is not actually 30,000 people exchanging 1btc once. or 1person exchanging 30,000 coins once

what if i told you it was just 100 people exchanging just 0.3btc each ...1000 times a day

china (1.3billion people) are not hoarding 1-30,000 coins each.
china (1.3billion people) are not hoarding 1 coins each.
china (1.3billion people) are not hoarding 0.00000x coins each.

china (1.3billion people) are not even involved in bitcoin.. only a couple hundred people and only small amounts are played per day. once you realise how day trading works.

many miners dont use 'public' exchanges. they do private OTC exchanges with VC's behind closed doors.
the mining pools are not that impacting of public xchanges with their hoards of fresh minted coins..

all they need to do is use a small amount on an exchange to day trade multiple times a day to cause a volume rise and also affect the price.

just look at the trade history.. you dont see orders of 12.5btc every 10 minutes or a large 75btc order an hour or a 1800btc order hit the market each day.
instead its lots of under 1btc orders. which make the lack of real liquidity because theres only a few thousand coins in reserve get smacked around a bit not needing thousands of coins to smack it but single to double figures done repeatedly

no. i said supply and demand work within scarcity not define scarcity.

EG a apple store may know there are 21million apple phones in a warehouse but are only able to sell 20 phones at the shop (supply=20, not 21m)
there are only 2 customers wanting it. so after 6 months, the store reduces the price of the phone before the next-gen phone hits the market (demand=2, not 20, not 21m)

bitcoins current 16mill circulation and 21m scarcity has nothing to do with supply and demand.
EXCHANGES.. here is the kicker you missed. EXCHANGES are not hoarding all 16m-21mil coins.
at most the SUPPLY is a couple hundred thousand coins per exchange.

and the EXCHANGE price is based on the supply and demand of the couple hundred thousand coins (not 16m not 21m)

which is where the supply and demand is the speculation within scarcity. but not impacted by scarcity

EG think about food. some regional distribution centre may have tonnes of baked beans.
but people dont care about whats in the regional distribution centre. they only care about whats available at the local store.

if an crisis happens where everyone buys up the stores food because there wont be a delivery. (supply drop) everyone speculative their need and demand for it. and suddenly food becomes a premium priced product where people are literally willing to sell their oldest daughter in an extreme crises event..

yep
bitcoins threat is fiat. if bitcoin becomes no better then fiat no one will want it.

the threat is Hyperledger. which is the banks own blockchain currency powerhouse of multiple interchangeable chains. which laughably the blockstream paid core devs are actually helping the bankers with.. and yes them hyperledger crew have been invited to have special secret talks at this months 'satoshi roundtable'.

so incase your wondering why Sipa, Gmaxwell, adam back matt corallo and other blockstream devs are so ademnt to cripple bitcoins onchain growth for no RATIONAL reason. and why they have changed the fee estimation engine to push the average fee more biasedly up rather than down.. it becomes obvious once you look at who is paying their salary and sitting with them over cocktails at an all inclusive weekend this month

i know your trying to think outside the box, which is commendable compared to other people. but im a few boxes outside of your box.
im just downplaying it to the most simplistic explanation for normal people to grasp.

as for scarcity. knowing that once it reaches X production, thats it.. no more.. means scarcity.
unlike renewable resources, such as tree's that produce seedlings which can produce more tree's endlessly and forever..
bitcoins scarcity is a known number, right from day one.. its a fixed number.

supply and demand then takes over within this scarcity amount. which is about speculation.
for anything that has utility, speculation has resistance points, there is always a resistance point where people refuse to sell for anything less because thats the point of what some deem true value. due to the utility element undrlying the speculation. and the value on top of the resistance point is the more variable amount where supply and demand plays out.

golds "speculative asset" as you said is not based on scarcity(supply). its based on demand. and gold has UTILITY which drives the demand. which drives the speculatory value both with the resistance point(normally not known about) then the variable bit on top...

however gold will not ever sink to absolute $0 because it has other utility (jewellery/circuits) so there is always an underlying resistance point of cost of production, utility and other factors keeping it above some level. yet bitcoin IF it has no utility CAN sink to $0... like many altcoins have proven.
one of bitcoins key resistance points is actually cost of production.. (usually about 25-75% lower than exchange rate price depending on volatility and miners costs)
but if demand and utility die off.. so will the miners. thus the resistance point can drop too when the difficulty drops due to less miners. double impacting the drop.

yes its not going to be an overnight occurrence. but a long slow drop to $0.. but it is possible IF bitcoin loses its utility

bitcoin is a payment currency. without being used as payment(merchants drop it because the fee's become too high to handle) then demand drops. the variable speculative xchange rate drops. miners dont make profit so they drop out, the resistance point drops.. and a snowball effect occurs slowly(compared to other alts) down to $0.
bitcoin has no other utility to eat up supply, such as jewellery creation, circuit creation. so bitcoin cannot speculate based on a supply..
yes you can throw some coin into some 'bitcoin eater' addresses. but we already agreed scarcity does not help something with no utility or desire


unlike gold.. monetary currency can tank to the bottom its monetary utility is lost.. even if they have some behind the scenes banking products (you mentioned derivatives for instance).. but even with these banking products in the background pretending to be 'of value' to hold up the front end currencies value.. they too are speculative. and again can tank to $0..

check out the zimbabwe dollar or other world currencies that have no utility.. they have no value at all!! even if they had banking products backing them.

so in a paradigm where no one needs to use it and supply is not even a factor.. demand drop = value drop = further demand drop.. snowballing into an endless drop of value.

bitcoin needs to have UTILITY to have VALUE

your thinking of it from the narrow ideal from the euro/american mindset.

40cents is only a few minutes minimum labour in developed countries.

but

40cents is HOURS of minimum labour in MANY developing countries.

being charged 2+ hours labour to buy groceries in any country is a laugh.. and if you think that is acceptable, then please go travel the world

the gold coin rose in value ven when not used as legal tender because gold had other UTILITY. EG jewellery, circuit boards. so it was not just about scarcity as the remaining feature. it still had utility which impacted scarcity.

but if bitcoin ever got to a point of no transactional use. and people just treated them as hoarded assets. then there is no utility, no "NEED" so desire shrinks and the supply/demand ratio changes to less demand.

just look at all the altcoins that have no utility even if they have scarcity. such as 42 coin..
42coin is not 500,000x the value of bitcoin.. its not even 1x the value of bitcoin.. even if its scarcity is 500k more scarce.

in short bitcoin needs utility to have value.

anyone desiring to remove bitcoins utility should just go play with the fiat they dream and hope about everynight