Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.

[cypherdoc]

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.

this is the right attitude, altho highly conservative.

the beautiful thing is that Bitcoin has been powerful enough to get an IBM and the world's most powerful CB up in a tizzy.  not to mention headed off in the wrong direction.

[cypherdoc]

keep focusing on the positives:

[cypherdoc]

[rocks]

80% YoY growth in usage isn't too shabby, especially considering the starting point last year was coming off of a bubble.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'll be content if 1% of the global economy is denominated in BTC before 2025.

this is the right attitude, altho highly conservative.

The world's current total wealth is ~ USD$263 trillion [1]. If one tenth of one percent of it were presently stored in the blockchain, BTC market cap would be USD$263 billion. Dividing that by 14 million BTC gives ~ USD$18,785/BTC.

Assuming only 1% compounded yearly growth, world's wealth in 2025 would be USD $290 trillion.  One percent of that is USD $2.9 trillion. Divided by 20 million BTC mined by 2025 gives ~ USD$1.45 million/BTC (supposing they were all for sale).

Conservative?

the beautiful thing is that Bitcoin has been powerful enough to get an IBM and the world's most powerful CB up in a tizzy.  not to mention headed off in the wrong direction.

Don't forget the commercial banks. They are feeling the heat too [2].


[1] https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=60931FDE-A2D2-F568-B041B58C5EA591A4
[2] http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ONE/15660259x0x820077/8af78e45-1d81-4363-931c-439d04312ebc/JPMC-AR2014-LetterToShareholders.pdf , p.29

[sidhujag]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

[rocks]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

[sidhujag]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

[cypherdoc]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right. 

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

[Torque]

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Only one problem though, Bitcoin (and all crypto) is still being treated like a stock.  So a stock market crash would instantly loot bitcoin as well (and it would not be pretty).

PM's and cash would be the only safe haven.

And in some weird way, I see an economic rise continuing for at least the next 2-3 years.  Not sure what will happen after that though, as it will likely be a lot of smoke.

[sidhujag]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right.  

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.

We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.

[rocks]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right.  

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.

We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.

I still don't think you can see anything in the charts anymore (or in the fundamentals) because what the FED decides to do in regards to rates and Ctrl+P has a much bigger impact.

The 2008 crash happened simply because 1) they raised rates the year before, which stopped M2 and M3 money growth and 2) they let Bear go down which telegraphed the FED would not always function as a bailout entity for the credit market in all cases (which it had since LTCM blew up a decade earlier).

We can see the same situation emerging today. 1) The FED is talking about raising rates (I'm still 50/50 on if they have the courage) and 2) letting Greece go down seems more and more likely, which will have the same effect as BearStearns.  Bear caused the credit market to realize it was possible to lose money with bank credit, which caused a bank run and crashed the system. Greece will make the credit market realize it is possible to lose money with sovereign credit, which will cause a sovereign run. If you thought a bank credit run was ugly, wait till you see a sovereign credit run.

[sidhujag]

$DJT *already* threatening to plunge below it's secondary low pt.  that would be bad and confirmation of the non-confirmation we already have in place.  look the hell out:

Unless we see a 500-600 point crash that still looks bullish.

None of that matters, not the fundamentals, not the chart, not anything.

The only thing that matters is if the FED starts to raise rates as promised this summer/fall. If yes then the chart goes down, if no then the chart goes up. Its that simple.

The truly scary aspect of this is most people who believe in free markets think this command and control economy is OK.

Noone thinks this economy is ok noone with 2 brain cells atleast.. it is what it is... it goes until it breaks. 0 or 1 binary. Raising rates will probably lead to a bullish run like no other btw quite opposite of what most ppl think.

unfortunately, you may be right.  

the only thing that might be able to crack their money printing scheme that is designed specifically to drive up the stock mkt is a real, good 'ol fashion domino debt default crisis like we had in 2008.  and in this case and time, that unfortunately would mean a true domino sovereign debt default starting with some place like Greece.  except that the ECB keeps doing whatever it takes to stop this from happening.  the key thing for you is that you believe that they can keep postponing reality.  and ppl like you have been right for longer than anyone can imagine having happened.  the problem i see is that your final blow off parabolic top seems to depend on the avg Joe piling on at the top.  i don't think they have the capability of doing so anymore therefore it will take continued CB pumping to keep everything afloat.  is there a breaking pt?  i think there is.  but it is difficult, if not impossible, to tell exactly when.  this Dow Theory non-conf is as good an indicator as any that there is unforeseen trouble ahead dead ahead.  but as i said in one post, the banks and CB's watch the charts like hawks as well and pump to prevent even a hint of trouble from emerging these days.  quite a clusterf*ck if you ask me.

i for one won't be investing in the stock mkt at this point in time.  only until a full on wash out crash has cleared out the speculation.

Im not basing it on postponing reality.. i see it in the charts... dont you think the smart money already knows when the endgame is near? They have to sell to someone.. and avg joe is the best bet as there is a ton of money on the sideline waiting for suckers to get in like musical chairs.

We see it in crypto land every day... except that its 1000000x faster. Each pump and cycle is doing the same thing.. accumulate and distribute to suckers. Some pumps end up happening on other pumps because of speculation and you have sustained rises.. however most alt's dont have a reason for a pump within a pump so they go back down to 0.

I still don't think you can see anything in the charts anymore (or in the fundamentals) because what the FED decides to do in regards to rates and Ctrl+P has a much bigger impact.

The 2008 crash happened simply because 1) they raised rates the year before, which stopped M2 and M3 money growth and 2) they let Bear go down which telegraphed the FED would not always function as a bailout entity for the credit market in all cases (which it had since LTCM blew up a decade earlier).

We can see the same situation emerging today. 1) The FED is talking about raising rates (I'm still 50/50 on if they have the courage) and 2) letting Greece go down seems more and more likely, which will have the same effect as BearStearns. Bear caused the credit market to realize it was possible to lose money with bank credit, which caused a bank run and crashed the system. Greece will make the credit market realize it is possible to lose money with sovereign credit, which will cause a sovereign run. If you thought a bank credit run was ugly, wait till you see a sovereign credit run.

It crashed in 2008 because of the greed on wallstreet caused by repackaging debt of households that couldn't afford the mortgages.. the math model was assuming that a large % of people wouldn't go bankrupt at the same time which they did and caused a ripple effect. THey did make some changes but didnt make enough... however it will rise until it breaks because there is so much money just sitting around waiting to be put somewhere.

[rocks]

It crashed in 2008 because of the greed on wallstreet caused by repackaging debt of households that couldn't afford the mortgages.. the math model was assuming that a large % of people wouldn't go bankrupt at the same time which they did and caused a ripple effect. THey did make some changes but didnt make enough... however it will rise until it breaks because there is so much money just sitting around waiting to be put somewhere.

That was the symptom, but not the cause.

The cause was following the LTCM blow-up, the FED made it clear to creditors that they would always be bailed out and there was no risk to lending money. LTCM was levered 50 to 1, this means that for every dollar invested they borrowed 50 dollars from creditors. When LTCM went down creditors lost billions. However the FED engineered a group bailout by the banks where equity holders lost big, but more importantly credit holders recovered 100% of their principle. This was historic and it was a first.

This action created the moral hazard where it was now known the FED would restore creditors from their bad decisions and protect them from any and ALL loses. After LTCM the credit market went wild. Credit standards crashed and no one was worried because the assumption was the FED would keep them whole.

One symptom of this was the low standard mortgage debt issued (that you mention), in 2006 no one thought they could lose money because the FED would backstop fannie mae. Another symptom was every bank was able to leverage anything (no matter how junky) and IBs went to record amounts of leverage themselves.

After Bear went down, the FED again saved creditors. But this time it telegraphed that it was worried about the current state of the credit market (which it created) and may not do this again. Smart investors understood this and started to remove their exposure to credit instruments. This in turn put pressure on the credit system.

Then when Lehman went under stress the FED finally said no more, closed their liquidity window with them, and stated creditors were on their own. The run was immediate and Lehman was bankrupt in less than an hour.

This demonstrated 1 thing:
- The entire credit market existed and depended upon an implicit understanding that the FED would bail creditors out. With this understanding default risk is removed and high leverage is possible. Without this understanding risk returns and existing leverage must unwind.

Today we see the same thing with sovereign debt. No one believes any real government will default, and that the IMF or someone will always come in and bail them out. When Greece exits the euro and defaults, creditors will see that there are risks and start to price that back in. If suddenly you become worried that default risk is real, why the hell would you lend money to Spain or Japan at < 1% rates? No upside but you risk the principle. Sovereign debt valuations are based only on the (false) belief that established governments will never default.

So it comes back to my original point. Everything is enabled, supported and depends on the central banks. They enable credit bubbles in the first place. Once they are either unwilling or unable to continue artificial support, credit will deleverage which will cause the market will go down. Their only alternative is to hit Cntl+P hard.

[explorer]

No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.

[rocks]

No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.

The difference is this time there are these bailout entities such as the IMF, who's sole purpose is to keep creditors 100% whole and socialize loses (on us). It's not that people believe governments such as Greece won't default, but that a bailout entity will come in and save the day.

This distorts risk by enabling credit to leverage up. Eventually it comes back down to normal levels one way or another. To give an indication of how bad the unwind can become, here is a chart of Debt vs GDP. The tiny blip caused the 2008 crash, now imagine if we go back to historically normal levels.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/04/pmr%200.0.jpg

[sidhujag]

No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.

The difference is this time there are these bailout entities such as the IMF, who's sole purpose is to keep creditors 100% whole and socialize loses (on us). It's not that people believe governments such as Greece won't default, but that a bailout entity will come in and save the day.

This distorts risk by enabling credit to leverage up. Eventually it comes back down to normal levels one way or another. To give an indication of how bad the unwind can become, here is a chart of Debt vs GDP. The tiny blip caused the 2008 crash, now imagine if we go back to historically normal levels.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/04/pmr%200.0.jpg

Remember a few yrs ago when greece pt 2 happened.. The fed stepped up and became a backer of the imf.. Not many ppl knew about it but essentially fed lent billions to imf for liquidity essentially putting all the eggs in one basket.. So its just that the bears went away because everyone is in it together.. It will go until fed and imf cant service the debt.

[cypherdoc]

tell me somebody isn't watching the chart of the Transports and stepping in to reverse almost all intraday attempts to violate this support level as evidenced by the spinning top intraday reversals; especially today after the previous singular violation on 4/6.  sure, one can just implicate speculators buying at support but otoh, it could be the Magic Hand of the PPT:

[explorer]

No one believes any real government will default

This is bizarre,  since throughout history, it's pretty much the rule that governments default eventually.  Of course, most people these days haven't a clue about history, since they are 'schooled' by the very same defaulting governments.

The difference is this time there are these bailout entities such as the IMF, who's sole purpose is to keep creditors 100% whole and socialize loses (on us). It's not that people believe governments such as Greece won't default, but that a bailout entity will come in and save the day.

Greece?!   Compared to England, France, Japan, USA, (Your Country HERE) their default won't cause much of a (ehem) ripple.  None of these people have absolutely ANY intention of paying back.  They can't even afford the negative interest rate lol  This just cannot transition smoothly.  IMF et al might be able to bail out smooth over whatever for Greece.  And Portugal. And Spain. And Ireland... What will they be able to do when the measurable economies start to default?  And They Will.  Government spending only slows when the host has expired.