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1141  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 50,000 votes on Dropbox website and counting! bitcoin adoption imminent? on: May 06, 2013, 11:25:20 PM
Hate to say this but just because a bunch of people vote for it doesn't mean they will begin to accept bitcoin. It might not make financial sense for them to do so right now.
1142  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Mining on Next Generation Consoles? on: May 06, 2013, 10:21:07 PM
Mining on gaming consoles will NOT be profitable.

You won't even be able to make up the cost of the electricity to runt he console!

It's a complete waste of time, don't even bother.


Let's look at the math:

When next generation gaming consoles come, let's say sometime in the fall, mining difficulty should be around 150 million. It could be much more, I'm being conservative with my estimate.

Let's assume that bitcoins are worth $200. Right now they are barely above $100 so I'm assuming they will double in value (a big assumption).

Let's say your gaming console is in range of the best GPUs currently available and can perform 800 megahashes/second (most likely it will be much much less).

Finally, let's say your console draws 250W and your electricity is 0.15 cents/KWH.

Let's plug it into the mining calculator...

You will make 0.0027 BTC per day or 0.54 cents a day. Power will cost you 0.90 cents a day, so you will lose 0.36 cents a day.

Not a good deal at all!

1143  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC Avalon Batch #3 - Payoff Speculation on: May 06, 2013, 10:12:51 PM
Thinking of selling one of my batch #2 Avalons...

I'd buy one of your batch 2 avalons bennybong.
1144  Economy / Speculation / Re: Banking Holiday? on: May 06, 2013, 09:25:54 PM
This is strange.

I sent $1000 to MtGox using Dwolla on Tuesday, April 30, and it arrived there Friday, May 3.

Doesn't look like a bank holiday to me.

Dwolla isn't the bank - if they had money at Dwolla already, they should have been able to process the transfer there.

No, the money was in my checking account on the 30th (that's when i got paid). It was at MtGox 3 days later. I never keep any money in Dwolla.
1145  Economy / Speculation / Re: Banking Holiday? on: May 06, 2013, 08:57:42 PM
This is strange.

I sent $1000 to MtGox using Dwolla on Tuesday, April 30, and it arrived there Friday, May 3.

Doesn't look like a bank holiday to me.
1146  Economy / Economics / Re: Can Bitcoins and Litecoins (or other alt currencies) co-exist? on: May 06, 2013, 08:51:31 PM
No, litecoin will die.

It offers ZERO advantage over bitcoin.

Bitcoin is highly divisible and is therefore both gold and silver.
1147  Economy / Speculation / Re: I fear - BTC is set for another downturn on: May 06, 2013, 07:19:22 PM
I don't know what you are talking about.
The volume does not look any different than normal.
And you have offered no evidence that the price is going to drop other than voodoo TA BS.
The price is going to $150 by the end of next week at the latest because of the news from China.

The China news has been out since May 3rd (CCTV broadcast). I, too, think that -in the end- a China participation will be beneficial. Yet, I look at the market itself instead of hyping TV stuff. It should be noticeable in the market. The market is up since May 3rd, hitting resistance. On low volume.

The fact you call tech analysis BS is up to you. Voodoo I leave up to others.
But obviously, this isn't for you. Let's be polite and leave it at "everyone is entitled to his/her own reading of reality", shall we?


Hype means more than anything for bitcoin price right now. Since there are no traditional fundamentals, bitcoin is only about hype. It is almost a pure bubble. Thus what appears in the newspaper means everything to bitcoin right now.

I actually like to see the TA posts here. Kind of like reading my horoscope in the paper from time to time. It is interesting stuff but I have yet to ever see it back by real evidence than it ever works.
If you post it though, expect people to tear it apart if they disagree.

i don't respond to the TA posts in order to start a fight or to piss anyone off. I worry about the newbies who will buy into it without doing their due diligence.
1148  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Estimated hashrate of the NSA? on: May 06, 2013, 06:57:01 PM
The NSA doesn't need to brute force mine bitcoins so their hashrate doesn't matter.

They have likely cracked SHA2 (SHA-256) which is used in bitcoin because they are decades ahead of the public when it comes to cryptanalysis.

So if they would like to create a new block they can just create one that hashes to the chosen value no matter what the current difficult and without brute forcing anything.


Actually, they are not. They use pretty much open standards, such as AES.

If you look at these standards, you will find quickly that although attacks have been suggested, these standards are top level. Once the NSA gets close to cracking their own standards, you will usually see a competition held for the next great Algorithm Wink

The NSA doesn't want people to know what they can and they can not do. They can use AES themselves because they know no other government can crack it. But it doesn't mean they can't crack SHA2 or anything else we use. They like people to use standards they can crack.

Many of the smartest mathematicians I knew from college went to work for the NSA. They have a monopoly on the crypto brains in the world and the most prestigious academic research done isn't even the same league as what goes on in the NSA.
1149  Economy / Speculation / Re: I fear - BTC is set for another downturn on: May 06, 2013, 06:38:24 PM
The price is going to $150 by the end of next week at the latest because of the news from China.

That's already priced in. If it goes to $150, that will not be the reason.


How could that be priced in? It only happened a couple of days ago.
1150  Economy / Speculation / Re: I fear - BTC is set for another downturn on: May 06, 2013, 06:05:10 PM
I don't know what you are talking about.

The volume does not look any different than normal.

And you have offered no evidence that the price is going to drop other than voodoo TA BS.

The price is going to $150 by the end of next week at the latest because of the news from China.
1151  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Now available: Lancelot (Heavy Duty 2 x FPGA Mining Board) on: May 06, 2013, 05:46:24 PM
Why would anyone buy this?

It will never pay for itself.

Even at the current difficulty, it would take more than 6 months to make your money back.

And the difficulty is only going to increase, A LOT in the next couple of months.

These units won't pay for their own power in a month or two.
1152  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Estimated hashrate of the NSA? on: May 06, 2013, 09:09:16 AM
The NSA doesn't need to brute force mine bitcoins so their hashrate doesn't matter.

They have likely cracked SHA2 (SHA-256) which is used in bitcoin because they are decades ahead of the public when it comes to cryptanalysis.

So if they would like to create a new block they can just create one that hashes to the chosen value no matter what the current difficult and without brute forcing anything.
1153  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC Avalon Batch #3 - Payoff Speculation on: May 06, 2013, 04:45:35 AM
Another issue, even if difficulty has only quadrupled when you receive in in August or September, the difficulty will continue to go up as other miners continue to ship. A difficulty of a couple hundred million by the fall/winter is not that unlikely. So while you might be on track to pay off your miner for the first 2-3 months, there is no way it will keep up for 8 months until you've made back your investment. If you are going to buy a miner, only pay as much as you can expect to make back in 3 months or so.
1154  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: ASIC Avalon Batch #3 on: May 06, 2013, 04:43:03 AM
Don't do it.

Batch 2 hasn't even shipped yet, so batch 3 is a ways off.

You can buy batch 2 avalon miners on ebay for about the same price (15 to 20k). I wouldn't buy a batch 3 miner right now because the uncertainty of when you will actually receive it.

If you get it after Butterfly Labs starts shipping and they actual ship 400 units a day like they claim they will (it's doubtful, but you never know) then your avalon miner could be worthless.
1155  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where will Bitcoin be on May 11th? on: May 06, 2013, 01:23:01 AM
who nose
1156  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Did mining just get easier in the last 48 hours? on: May 05, 2013, 04:54:15 PM
The difficulty has not changed, so no,mining did not get easier.
1157  Economy / Speculation / Re: How much effect does this forum have on Bitcoin? on: May 05, 2013, 03:47:04 PM
Almost none at all.
1158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bears? Where are you? Bulls? on: May 04, 2013, 06:51:47 PM
Nah, you are wrong, bitcoin is going to hit $150 in the next week or two. There will still be dips, but it is on its way up.
1159  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop it with the "bank closed - no new money coming in" on: May 03, 2013, 08:38:31 PM
I just $1000 arrive in my mt gox account today (sent with dwolla). I don't know how the banks being closed has affected got at all.
1160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox the reason why price is going down, ( Manipulation with prove ) on: May 03, 2013, 08:04:36 PM
It would be so easy to set some kind of limit against this...

But it's not the only reason price is dropping atm.
Bank holiday in Japan -> no fresh money arriving
Some bad news e.g. about lawsuit against Gox

I don't know why people keep saying this.

I had money that arrived at Gox this morning. I don't think the holiday is preventing money from getting to gox.
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