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OP is just whining because he missed out on several chances to get cheap coins.
Every crash HURTS bitcoin.
Every time it goes up it HELPS bitcoin.
Just buy now and hope that it will go up to $1000. That is much better for bitcoin compared to bitcoin crashing to $40 and going back to $200.
A major, prolonged crash would mean that people are losing faith in bitcoin since there would be drastically less demand for it. Bitcoin might not ever recover. You can't have it both ways. You can't have everyone suddenly give up on bitcoin and then have everyone want to get back in.
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Some things:
- Coinbase is by far the easiest and most convenient way to buy and sell your coins if you are in the US.
- Prices on coinbase are reasonable for both buying and selling
- There is no other exchange you can transfer money to electronically anymore. This might change by the end of Nov if CampBX starts accepting ACH deposits like they claim they will.
- The CampBX site is horribly slow and their orderbook is incredibly shallow. You can't buy or sell any medium-size amounts of coins without moving the market. So it doesn't matter if you can do a $50k ACH or not. You really don't want to ever buy or sell more than 10 coins there at a time.
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CampBX is going to be accepting ACH by the end of the month.
In the meantime you can mail them a check or money order.
Or you can do an international wire to bitstamp which is expensive and a pain.
Coinbase is actually not a bad deal.
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I've been using my dividends to buy more shares. Eventually I'm going to own the whole company!
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So the point many people are trying to make is not that they would have made more USD by buying BTC directly instead of a BFL miner but that they would have more BTC plain and simple. The exchange rate doesn't matter and your point is moot.
/school
but you are living in a vacuum of your own making.. you are surrounded by new entrants playing a different game the 'ROI's are not based the same for everyone... since many people have creative ways to buy miners that they cant really do the same on buying BTC, then the cost basis drops which means they can mine less BTC and still make ROI I know this is hard for the old skool stackers to understand and swallow, but just look around.. there must be a reason that pre-orders still sell well even though the BTC in / BTC out never adds up anymore right? Not really disagreeing with you, just pointing out how things have changed /reality Very well put. I, for example, bought BFL hardware. I spent $22,500 on singles (Thanks to AMEX), ended up with 410BTC (and rising) sold 200ish @ $130 avg, so $26,000 return. Factor in interest on my card, I've got my card paid off, and about $1,000 in my bank account. That's a positive ROI. Of course if I bought BTC with my $22k, I'd be sitting pretty, but the bottom line is I had a positive ROI (With 210+ BTC in unrealized gains). That being said, I paid in $USD, my ROI is based on $USD. Had I paid BFL in BTC, I may very well feel different. Another way of looking at is, I bought a 1st gen iPhone, sold it on craigslist, made $200. But since I didn't buy AAPL @ $123 that day, I'm facing a negative ROI. When will people get it through their heads that it does not matter whether you pay for your mines in BTC, dollars, yen, or whatever!!!??? MONEY IS MONEY! Especially money like US dollars and btc which is freely convertible. The fact is you would have had more money if you had bought btc instead. It doesn't mean you made a poor investment. It was obviously better than letting your money sit as dollars. But it was not as good as investing in bitcoins directly. And miners must always compare their returns with that option. It never makes sense to mine if it will be cheaper to buy bitcoins directly. |
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The problem with something like mining that follows a poisson distribution is that it has an infinitely long tail.
There is no point where you have a greater chance to find a block. The chance is always the same.
Let's say you expect to find a block after an hour on average (50/50 chance). After an hour you haven't found a block. What is your chance you'll find a block the next hour? Still 50/50.
Now let's say it's been 24 hours and you were really unlucky and haven't found a block. What's the chance you'll find a block in the 25th hour? Still 50/50.
It's like flipping a coin. Very long strings of heads (and tails) WILL occur and in fact occur quite frequently. If you are solo-mining and your average block mine rate is greater than a couple days, you run a great risk of losing as it is very common for you to have long periods that last many times longer than your average mine rate where you get nothing. And with difficulty rising fast you have no chance of making that back.
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My idea is dedicate some hash power to solo mining and some to pool mining. When solo mining becomes luckier than pool mining i switch to all pool mining and maximize my return.
Luck does not have memory. When solo mining becomes luckier, it doesnt mean your more likely to be unlucky in future  Luck doesn't have memory but it sure follows statistical average. Lucky rounds will be followed by unlucky ones to bring the earnings back to normal, average level. We are playing with average numbers here, observing only a day or two of data is not enough to make any conclusions. So not true at all!! |
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So my 4 module, Batch #3 unit I have had since August 7th.
It has found 4 blocks on Slush's pool in less than 3 months. Thats 100BTC vs 47 BTC earned on Slush pool.
I am considering using my Avalon (110 gh/s) to solo mine and my Bitfury (170gh/s) to Pool mine.
What are you guys thoughts?
You are crazy if you are solo mining today with anything less than 25 TH/s. The variance is going to kill you. You have a very significant chance of losing it all. |
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http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 390,928,787 Estimated Next Difficulty: 547,192,271 (+39.97%) Adjust time: After 1580 Blocks, About 9.5 days Hashrate(?): 3,473,025 GH/s I give up, the difficulty have been increase at about 40% for 3 consecutive time. You guys should be happy that I reduced the increment by 0.00001%  That site has been overestimating. Remember last round they were showing difficulty at way over 400 million and we are only at 390 million. This site http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate estimates only 463 million. This number is always a little low and gradually rises throughout the round, but this time it has actually been dropping! http://bitcoindifficulty.com/ only shows 432 million. My guess is that difficulty will only be in high 400 millions, maybe 480 or 490 or so. |
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Can you at least tell us how you determined the que? I messaged you here on BitcoinTalk on Oct' 8th as this was the procedure in the past and then decided to open a support ticket on Bitfunder yesterday just in case you hadn't given consideration to my private message in determining where I end up in the que.
It's this sort of information that you're leaving people in the dark with. You do have some minor but important information to update us with frankly. I don't agree that there's nothing to update.
- How great a percentage of outstanding redemption requests have you worked through so far?
- Is there a specific method of contacting you that results in a placement in the que?
- For American users, (I am not an American user) with the Nov' 1st deadline fast approaching affect their redemption requests?
So far as I can tell (please someone correct me if I'm wrong) you have not answered these questions or given out this information. It would be nice to know responses to these points of interest.
I have lodged several requests with you over the past few weeks for contact privately. I understand that you're busy but not in even a single instance have you said so much as "sorry, too busy right now" in response to any of these messages. Again, while it's understandable that you're busy and while we can appreciate greatly that you're trying as best as you can to meet your obligations and apparently succeeding, until you actually have met those obligations you are doing nothing to give people any sense of predictability as to what's going on with their funds which you are in possession of.
Please give us a bit more detail. It's the courteous thing to do and we don't even really need a whole lot.
Now working on MGIO's request which came in before yours on the 8th and is rather large. Redeems are first come first serve. Best method for queue is to submit via btctalk PM. Even with the Nov 1, I can not hold preference on those users over others. 70% of the requests came in on Monday. If I do not hear from someone in 48hrs I move on. Many users respond that they are no longer interested/capable of redeem. I will continue to work through redeems and satisfy the agreement. -Ukyo I agreed to only redeem 20% of my shares for now since it looked like it would hold up the line for everyone else. It still is a very large amount though so it could take ukyo a while. Hopefully, I won't regret this if Ukyo ends up defaulting but I have confidence that he will do everything he can to continue paying dividends and honor the redemption requests. |
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3 and soon 4 days late with the dividend on your loan now ukyu, when will it be fixed ?
Ha, you still care about dividends, when there is a high risk you lose a large portion of your investment? The dividends are all there now! |
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In the current world, it would be pretty much impossible for anyone to set up a legitimate security exchange that complies with SEC regulations. Look how much trouble it is for the winklevoss twins just to create an ETF. And every single security would have to be registered with the sec. Not one of them would even come close to qualifying. IPOs are incredibly time consuming and expensive.
So don't blame ukyo. Anyone with half a brain should have realized bitfunder could never be legitimate from the start. The only thing that saved us was that we were too small for the sec to care before
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Stop with the FUD. You ran into one glitch and it was resolved. Please just delete this thread. BTCT had even more bugs when it was up.
Maybe you weren't around so let me get you up to speed. Bitfunder API was delayed indefinitely, G.ASICMINER ownership transfer was a pain in the arse for a VERY long while and WeExchange has a serious problem when you want to withdraw Bitcoins. When this problem occurs it MUST be solved manually which took days and week for some. Please let the big boys discuss a serious problem they are facing, You go gather dust over faucets. I'm personally waiting for quite a lot of ukyo.loan shares to be redeemed so don't say that I don't have any problems. There is a lot going on in the bitcoin security world right now and needless to say ukyo is overwhelmed. But I don't go posting a sky is falling post every time there is a glitch. |
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But this is completely a guess based on nothing correct? The fact that we have no idea why he decided to block US customers is a testament to how untrustworthy he is. As far as I'm aware ukyo is currently managing in some where around thousands of bitcoins from "investors" or people using his site yet he is only able to communicate once every few weeks. Why people would continue to fill this guys wallet is beyond me.
QFT If he was contacted by the SEC and/or other US govt entities it is almost certain that he is not allowed to talk about what is going on. At least presently. In fact he has said exactly that. I'm sure he is already working overtime just dealing with dealing with all bit finder/weexchange issues. |
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I hope ukyo posts in this thread within the next couple of days. Especially if dividends continue to be late.
In the meantime it makes sense to start gathering whatever information we can about bitfunder, weexchange, and ukyo if legal action ends up being necessary. I'm still giving ukyo the benefit of the doubt and still a long way from pursuing legal remedies but it makes sense to look into what would need to be done if if comes to that in the meantime.
Looking at the asset list there are people with 10s of thousands of shares which equates to 10s of thousands of dollars and I'm sure those people would go to great lengths to reclaim their money. I'm surprised we don't see more of them posting here.
Also, it would be great if people who get their shares redeemed post here and state how roughly how long they were waiting.
Has anyone added up the shares on the asset list and seen how many are still outstanding?
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Well to put things in perspective, dividends cost him 1 btc a day. The total value of all issued shares is 2,000 btc. Even if he pays dividends for a month while he redeems, that's only 30 btc. And he isn't paying dividends on the redeemed shares of course. I don't think that extra couple of btc will slow him down too much.
As long as bitfunder and weexchange are still active he still has money.
1BTC is 100 redeemed shares every day. We don't know at what rate he redeems them. Income from Bitfunder is lately just barely more than 1BTC per day. I don't know how much he gets from Weexchange, I think it's not much either. We need numbers, but if no paying dividends makes him redeem twice as fast, say at the rate of 2BTC per day or 200 bonds per day, then I don't care about dividends. Take into consideration that trading at BitFunder will most likely decrease a lot once all Americans and those who don't want to verify will be out. They're still there and are driving most of trading that has been going on lately. I would hope he is redeeming far faster than that. 2 BTC a day means 1,000 days to redeem them all, or almost 3 years!! I was guessing the rate would be 10 times that amount at least. |
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It seems to me it still is being honored, redemption is just taking a long time. It is unclear whether ukyo has enough coins to redeem all the requested shares but he is working on redeeming them, in order of request, as far as I can tell. I'm not sure why TradeFortress is claiming the debts are not being honored. Maybe they just got tired of waiting. Maybe ukyo has said something them that he hasn't announced here. |
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I wonder if it is a better to pay a percentage of all redemption requests in the queue rather than go in order. The way it is now it means some people will get all their money back and others will get totally screwed. People don't know whether they are going to get 100% or 0% which creates a panic causing people to sell at a huge loss. For example, if everyone in the queue knew they would currently get, say at least 90% then the market could stabilize.
I think also that dividends should be paid in the meantime. The money is still going to the investors. Lack of dividends is just going to cause everyone to dump shares! That said, ukyo has been 2 days late several times before. I am not jumping to the conclusion that dividends have stopped unless I hear from him.
Yes, I agree that it could be better to pay a percentage of all redemption requests in the queue. That's why I'm asking for numbers so we can decide for ourselves. The holders of bonds should vote what to do. Your argument on dividend assumes that he can afford to redeem almost 100% of face value and dividends for as long as there are unredeemed bonds. I hope it's true but I don't really know. If there is a risk he can't afford to do that, then I don't care about dividends at all. In that case the only thing I care about is the amount of BTC he gives for every redeemed bond. If I get my bonds redeemed faster with no dividends rather than risking it and possibly receiving a lot less than face value later, then I vote for no dividends. Well to put things in perspective, dividends cost him 1 btc a day. The total value of all issued shares is 2,000 btc. Even if he pays dividends for a month while he redeems, that's only 30 btc. And he isn't paying dividends on the redeemed shares of course. I don't think that extra couple of btc will slow him down too much. But stopping dividends without any explanation will cause everyone to try to request redemption. As long as there are still dividends there will be some people that will hold on to shares making the redemption queue shorter. Regardless of what he decides to do, I think we need to get more information regarding his economic situation and planned timeframe. As long as bitfunder and weexchange are still active he still has money. Nothing short of a personal bankruptcy will stop him from redeeming shares. There are shareholders with large enough holdings that I'm sure they would sue in the situation where it looked like he totally defaulted. |
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TradeFortress has announced that the Ukyo debt owned by BTCInvest is not being honored, and that as well as the lost bitcoins it's making necessary extra complications & verification requirements in the liquidation process for BTCInvest's 147 investors. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135157.msg3412811#msg3412811Please could you respond. Thanks. Ukyo was not expecting to have to liquidate perhaps 1000 coins or more in such a short amount of time. I imagine it will take months to work his way through the queue of redemption requests. Well, he could've expected a massive amount of redemption requests when he announced the blocking of US customers on BitFunder and the verification requirement for the rest of the world. Yes, I'm sure he knew that was going to happen. But the fact that he had to block US customers I'm sure was a big surprised to him. I'm guessing he was faced with an ultimatum: block US customers by the end of the month or get shut down. If it was up to him he would have shut off US customers so quickly. |
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Why do you say that the debt isn't being honored when evidence seems to point to the fact that ukyo is redeeming shares and people are reported having their shares redeemed, although very slowly? Have you heard something from ukyo saying the debt won't be honored, because just three days ago he said he was working through the queue, and people are reporting having their shares redeemed. I can't speak about graet.loan as I haven't been following it. |
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