Bitcoin Forum
October 17, 2019, 04:23:43 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.1 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  

Warning: Moderators do not remove likely scams. You must use your own brain: caveat emptor. Watch out for Ponzi schemes. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

Pages: « 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 [61] 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 »
  Print  
Author Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx  (Read 315719 times)
Deprived
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532
Merit: 500


View Profile
March 24, 2013, 01:06:36 PM
 #1201

Hard to call it in the future, but still, in a deflationary currency any %, even 0.0000001% is a good thing. I've heard calls for negative interest rates (which obviously can't work in practice, but you get the idea).

Can't really see rates THAT low being attractive.  Risk sets a lower-bound on the acceptable rate.  So for even a rate of 1% per year to be acceptable you have to be confident there's a less than 1%/year chance of default/failure for it to be better to invest than keep coins in cold storage.  At that rate you're already into the area where lack of a deadman's switch would be sufficient to make investment in something unattractive (average life-expectancy being under 100 years).
WEEKLY BONUS Unlimited Faucet&Fastest Dice PLINKO DICE CRASH ROULETTE PLAY NOW
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1571329423
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1571329423

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1571329423
Reply with quote  #2

1571329423
Report to moderator
ThickAsThieves
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500



View Profile
March 24, 2013, 01:38:26 PM
 #1202

0.0000001% is not attractive at all and would clearly kill the traded value of the stock.
She probably wasn't being literal, just pointing out that any rate of gain is "a good thing". Not necessarily good enough in any situation.
MPOE-PR
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 500



View Profile
March 24, 2013, 05:12:27 PM
 #1203

0.0000001% is not attractive at all and would clearly kill the traded value of the stock.
She probably wasn't being literal, just pointing out that any rate of gain is "a good thing". Not necessarily good enough in any situation.

Something like that. It's true that risk sets a minimum, but in fiat where risk + inflation together set the minimum. So logically we'll see lower minimums.

There's also an important difference between risk (which is discrete) and inflation (which is diffuse), in the following sense: if you buy GOOG today and sell next year for a 0.00000001% more you have certainly made a loss (because inflation). If you buy BTCGOOG today and sell next year for a 0.00000001% more you have certainly made a gain - the risk has ended with your divestment and turns out to have been 0% (in that case).

Obviously BTC inflation is still significant atm, but once block rewards halve a few more times that will change.

My Credentials  | THE BTC Stock Exchange | I have my very own anthology! | Use bitcointa.lk, it's like this one but better.
Deprived
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532
Merit: 500


View Profile
March 24, 2013, 05:32:34 PM
 #1204

If you buy BTCGOOG today and sell next year for a 0.00000001% more you have certainly made a gain - the risk has ended with your divestment and turns out to have been 0% (in that case).

No - just because something there was a risk of didn't happen does NOT equate to the risk having been zero.

If you bet on a coin-flip being tails, I flip the coin and it comes up tails that does NOT mean that the risk of heads coming was 0%.  Same for any other risk - it failing to occur doesn't mean it never existed.

Similarly consider if you invest in 1000 absolutely identical (as far as all available information indicates) securities believing it likely there is a 10% risk of failure for each of them then 200 fail.  That does NOT mean there was a 0% risk on 800 of them and a 100% risk on 200.  It tends to suggest there was a 20% risk of failure on ALL of them.

Now it COULD be argued that everything is predetermined and so the ones that failed were always going to fail etc.  But whilst an interesting philosophical point it's entirely useless for practical purposes.  We have to deal with risk that we can quantify/measure/estimate in advance - and collapsing that to either 0 or 1 based on results is only useful if there's some measurable (in advance) factor that can be used in future such assessments.  If the real risk is only definable at all in hind-sight then we have to group together securities/whatever with a similar visible profile anyway.
MPOE-PR
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 500



View Profile
March 25, 2013, 12:54:00 AM
 #1205

If you bet on a coin-flip being tails, I flip the coin and it comes up tails that does NOT mean that the risk of heads coming was 0%.  Same for any other risk - it failing to occur doesn't mean it never existed.

Our disagreement is purely semantic. You say "it failing to occur doesn't mean it never existed" and mean that one is not free to infer anything about the future from the demonstrated absence of risk in that one instance. Such as, just because a coin never came tails up in any past instance doesn't mean it won't the next time you try.

I say "turns out to have been 0% (in that case)" and mean that nothing in the future can change your past, you did in fact make it out of the investment with a profit, whatever the risk may have been it worked out to no loss in the end.

These aren't contradictory statements.

It tends to suggest there was a 20% risk of failure on ALL of them.

This argument boils down to saying that if you have three marriages of which two end in divorce this doesn't mean there were two bad and one good matches in your history, but simply that women are 33% rotten.

Any attempt to class real objects this way runs into the fundamental problem of classification (which is still open, btw).

We have to deal with risk that we can quantify/measure/estimate in advance - and collapsing that to either 0 or 1 based on results is only useful if there's some measurable (in advance) factor that can be used in future such assessments.

I wasn't dealing nor intending to deal prospectively. I simply meant that there's a strict difference between the two cases: if you walked away with 1 satoshi profit then that is in fact profit. If you walk away with one cent profit then that is not in fact profit, but a slightly smaller inflation loss. I think this stands.

My Credentials  | THE BTC Stock Exchange | I have my very own anthology! | Use bitcointa.lk, it's like this one but better.
dyseac
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 91
Merit: 10



View Profile
March 25, 2013, 11:30:30 AM
 #1206

Excuse my ignorance... but what's the easiest way to buy shares in s.dice ? even a small amount, say, 1000 ?
strello
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 234
Merit: 100



View Profile
March 25, 2013, 11:44:00 AM
 #1207

Excuse my ignorance... but what's the easiest way to buy shares in s.dice ? even a small amount, say, 1000 ?

Try these passthroughs on BTCT or BitFunder:

https://btct.co/security/GSDPT

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.SDICE

https://btct.co/security/S.DICE-PT

Good luck!

It is futile to speak of liberty as long as economic slavery exists.

My GPG key
StarenseN
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1974
Merit: 1162



View Profile
March 25, 2013, 11:45:18 AM
 #1208

Excuse my ignorance... but what's the easiest way to buy shares in s.dice ? even a small amount, say, 1000 ?

Try these passthroughs on BTCT or BitFunder:

https://btct.co/security/GSDPT

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.SDICE

https://btct.co/security/S.DICE-PT

Good luck!

CoinBr.com can do help him as well.
Korbman
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000



View Profile
March 25, 2013, 12:25:46 PM
 #1209

Excuse my ignorance... but what's the easiest way to buy shares in s.dice ? even a small amount, say, 1000 ?

Try these passthroughs on BTCT or BitFunder:

https://btct.co/security/GSDPT

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.SDICE

https://btct.co/security/S.DICE-PT

Good luck!

So can Havelock - https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=SDICE

MPOE-PR
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 500



View Profile
March 25, 2013, 01:16:45 PM
 #1210

Excuse my ignorance... but what's the easiest way to buy shares in s.dice ? even a small amount, say, 1000 ?

Try these passthroughs on BTCT or BitFunder:

https://btct.co/security/GSDPT

https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.SDICE

https://btct.co/security/S.DICE-PT

Good luck!

O wow, btct has two pts even.

My Credentials  | THE BTC Stock Exchange | I have my very own anthology! | Use bitcointa.lk, it's like this one but better.
Deprived
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532
Merit: 500


View Profile
March 25, 2013, 04:51:50 PM
 #1211

If you bet on a coin-flip being tails, I flip the coin and it comes up tails that does NOT mean that the risk of heads coming was 0%.  Same for any other risk - it failing to occur doesn't mean it never existed.

Our disagreement is purely semantic. You say "it failing to occur doesn't mean it never existed" and mean that one is not free to infer anything about the future from the demonstrated absence of risk in that one instance. Such as, just because a coin never came tails up in any past instance doesn't mean it won't the next time you try.

I say "turns out to have been 0% (in that case)" and mean that nothing in the future can change your past, you did in fact make it out of the investment with a profit, whatever the risk may have been it worked out to no loss in the end.

These aren't contradictory statements.

It tends to suggest there was a 20% risk of failure on ALL of them.

This argument boils down to saying that if you have three marriages of which two end in divorce this doesn't mean there were two bad and one good matches in your history, but simply that women are 33% rotten.

Any attempt to class real objects this way runs into the fundamental problem of classification (which is still open, btw).

We have to deal with risk that we can quantify/measure/estimate in advance - and collapsing that to either 0 or 1 based on results is only useful if there's some measurable (in advance) factor that can be used in future such assessments.

I wasn't dealing nor intending to deal prospectively. I simply meant that there's a strict difference between the two cases: if you walked away with 1 satoshi profit then that is in fact profit. If you walk away with one cent profit then that is not in fact profit, but a slightly smaller inflation loss. I think this stands.

You need to look at this in the context of what was being discussed - which was assessing whether or not a potential investment is a worthwhile one.

To take the example you raised of failed marriages, the difference between "2 good and one bad" or "33% chance of failure" is only useful when considered in the siutation of a prospective 4th marriage.  IF you are able to identify significant differences between the two which failed and the one that succeeded in advance of them failing or succeeding then you have a basis on which to usefully assess future situations.  If you can't differentiate between them, other than with hindsight, then yes - the best conclusion tou can make is that there's a 66% chance of failure for your next marriage.

Similarly with investments.  If you can't distinguish between a bunch of opportunites in advance even with information on the past results of a similar set of businesses then there's no useful basis in trying to seperate the old ones into 'good' and 'bad' ones.  Sure - the results are real and have to be accounted for as they landed - but you're no nearer reaching any basis on which to seperate simialr such future opportunities before parting with your cash.

Yes - there's a perfectly valid intellectual basis for your position being correct.  But it's not a useful one when trying to apply it to decision-making.
RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 294
Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 05:38:29 AM
 #1212

What the hell is happening with the sdice valuation? People are just dumping these shares with the end result being that I made since start of the year 300% on my bitcoins and at the same time barely 30% on sdice. To me, this does not make sense. Sdice has - proven- to raise the amount of btc earned and payed out, even while btc goes up dramatically in value. So logically sdice should go up as much as bitcoin goes up (ie the share price not dropping when btc goes up). Is it right to conclude that investors are behaving irrationally today? Or am I missing something?

Great company by the way Erik!

The slamming of sdice is not over. Value of shares has continued to drop to now around 0.0035. Based on the last 6 months, the average expected monthly profit is 9,000 btc (based on 1.9% house advantage and avg total bets of 480,000 btc per month). Sdice is valued at 350,000 btc today, and will give a yearly dividend of 108,000 btc, excluding growth, or 30% dividend. Not bad.

However, not taking growth into account is not reasonable since sdice has tripled it's monthly profit from 3,000 btc/month to 9000 btc/month in only 6 months. Let's say growth decelerates in half, that means the next year, it won't sixfold again, but it will triple. Meaning actual dividend over the coming year will not be 108,000 btc but somewhere around 200,000 btc or about 50% dividend. And if growth continues at decelerating pace, then it will take only another half year to get another 50% dividend based on what you pay today.

So, all the btc you put in today, you will get back in 1.5 year.  Even if the stock gets hammered more, even if bitcoins rise to $1000 value. And after that you still own the shares. If they go to zero in year 2, due to say violent government, you didn't lose anything as you earned back the btc you originally put into it (Ofcourse you then lose all btc profit you made on it, so in such case it would only be brake even).

The only serious risk I see is government intervention, so I would greatly appreciate a response from Erik about this. I also noticed nothing is mentioned about this in the prospectus. How high do you estimate the risk for this to happen the coming year? How high the coming 3 years? Are there any plans on what will be done if it happens?
Slushpuppy
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 106
Merit: 10


Free Crypto in Stake.com Telegram t.me/StakeCasino


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 05:47:37 AM
 #1213

Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

GeoRW
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 350
Merit: 257


Trust No One


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 08:17:23 AM
 #1214

Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because S.DICE is in red numbers this month (there'll be no dividends probably). And maybe because big whales, who spent a lot on playing are not playing anymore and maybe because BTC has appreciated so much that players will play with less amounts of BTC -> therefore less BTC profit -> therefore price goes down.
ThickAsThieves
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500



View Profile
March 28, 2013, 12:57:53 PM
 #1215

Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003
penta
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 87
Merit: 10


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 02:15:34 PM
 #1216

Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003

where can we follow current monthly profit/loss?
jborkl
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 249
Merit: 250


Team Heritage Motorsports


View Profile WWW
March 28, 2013, 03:05:21 PM
 #1217

Look, there were huge wins this month against the house.

Huge rise in BTC price

Distractions in purchasing of shares do to other interests.  People buying Avalon and Asicminer diverted funds away from buying and betting on SD.

Volume is thin and people are worried about 1 week or 2 weeks worth of profit.. Don't be so short sighted

kgo
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 549
Merit: 500


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 03:26:25 PM
 #1218

Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003

where can we follow current monthly profit/loss?


Dooglus usually does daily updates here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.1080

Even though the month is flat, we're still above the statistically expected profit overall, so we might be in for a few more flat months.
wtfvanity
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 504
Merit: 500


WTF???


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 03:46:20 PM
 #1219

Why is the price dropping so much? The dividend from the last two months decreased but not by that much

Because there will be no profits this month, which means no dividends. Price will probably fall below .003

where can we follow current monthly profit/loss?


Dooglus usually does daily updates here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.1080

Even though the month is flat, we're still above the statistically expected profit overall, so we might be in for a few more flat months.

good time to sell stock?

Good time to sell was when the price was double almost triple what it is now. Now you start to wonder when a good time to pick some more back up or is the bubble still popping?

          WTF!     Don't Click Here              
          .      .            .            .        .            .            .          .        .     .               .            .             .            .            .           .            .     .               .         .              .           .            .            .            .     .      .     .    .     .          .            .          .            .            .           .              .     .            .            .           .            .               .         .            .     .            .            .             .            .              .            .            .      .            .            .            .            .            .            .             .          .
gog1
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 500


View Profile
March 28, 2013, 04:06:24 PM
 #1220

While in March, there's the fork, the Avalon order, etc. that may have taken money away from betting.  But in the long run, with the number of BTC in circulation being capped, plus a raising BTC prices, volume on betting will be limited.  In addition, from an operational standpoint, there can be improvements made-bets with the highest odds in casinos tend to have the highest house edge; in SD, the bet with the lowest edge is also the one paying the highest, which only help to promote variance in profits.  I highly doubt people will stop betting less than 1 even if you cut the odds to like 50000x.
Pages: « 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 [61] 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!