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Author Topic: [CLOSED] S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx  (Read 315458 times)
dree12
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August 25, 2012, 02:32:10 AM
 #301

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
Modesty aside, I sold at the peak and will buy back once this bubble collapses.
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Bitcoin Oz
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August 25, 2012, 02:34:47 AM
 #302

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
Modesty aside, I sold at the peak and will buy back once this bubble collapses.

Considering there are millions of shares available you would have to be nuts to buy at twice the IPO price. Inb4 facebook.

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August 25, 2012, 03:26:46 AM
 #303

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
There's the 2 things I predicted:
- This is an arb opportunity
- Greater GLBSE volume --> greater demand --> higher price
 Cheesy

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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August 25, 2012, 03:28:10 AM
 #304

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
There's the 2 things I predicted:
- This is an arb opportunity
- Greater GLBSE volume --> greater demand --> higher price
 Cheesy

How does one go about arbitraging this for profit? Besides creating a passthrough?
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August 25, 2012, 03:32:32 AM
 #305

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
There's the 2 things I predicted:
- This is an arb opportunity
- Greater GLBSE volume --> greater demand --> higher price
 Cheesy

How does one go about arbitraging this for profit? Besides creating a passthrough?

DT just needs to release more GLBSE shares in the passthrough since clearly there is demand outstripping supply. If he wont meet the supply need then someone else will need to do a passthrough that competes with less fees etc. Dont you love the free market ?

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August 25, 2012, 03:44:20 AM
 #306

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
There's the 2 things I predicted:
- This is an arb opportunity
- Greater GLBSE volume --> greater demand --> higher price
 Cheesy

How does one go about arbitraging this for profit? Besides creating a passthrough?
1. Buy shares on MPEX
2. Trade shares 1:1 with DeaDTerra for pass-through shares
3. Sell pass-through shares for more than you bought them for
4. Wash, rinse, repeat.

It will cost you the initial 20 BTC, though, so either keep arbing both ways at every opportunity, or use a broker, or find some other thing you want at MPEX to justify the cost.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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August 25, 2012, 08:34:41 AM
 #307

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
There's the 2 things I predicted:
- This is an arb opportunity
- Greater GLBSE volume --> greater demand --> higher price
 Cheesy

How does one go about arbitraging this for profit? Besides creating a passthrough?

DT just needs to release more GLBSE shares in the passthrough since clearly there is demand outstripping supply. If he wont meet the supply need then someone else will need to do a passthrough that competes with less fees etc. Dont you love the free market ?

If he won't supply then they don't really have to compete on fees.

And yes I love the free market.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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August 25, 2012, 09:03:07 AM
 #308

I cashed out my GSDPT because it is bubbling. The stock is trading at nearly 2 times the value of the S.DICE backing.
There's the 2 things I predicted:
- This is an arb opportunity
- Greater GLBSE volume --> greater demand --> higher price
 Cheesy

How does one go about arbitraging this for profit? Besides creating a passthrough?

DT just needs to release more GLBSE shares in the passthrough since clearly there is demand outstripping supply. If he wont meet the supply need then someone else will need to do a passthrough that competes with less fees etc. Dont you love the free market ?

If he won't supply then they don't really have to compete on fees.

And yes I love the free market.
I am having some fuck ups that's screwing me over. Yesterday it was bugs on GLBSE today it was MPex that don't work for me (probably my fault), once I get this all going I will issue more shares.
Sorry for the delay.
//DeaDTerra
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August 25, 2012, 11:50:07 AM
 #309

Again, btcx, I sincerely appreciate the intelligent comments.
Thanks for taking the time to reply to all of them!  I've written some responses back but we could probably go back and forth eternally so don't feel the need to address every concern I have.  I'm not the guy you're after.


So it is thus accurate to say that I prefer 32k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE, but I would not prefer 15k BTC instead of 10% of SatoshiDICE. My investment preference only shifts to the BTC at the 32k for 10% exchange rate. Further, I wouldn’t sell another 10% for an additional 32k btc, for at that margin my preference shifts back to SD.
Sure, if I were in your position I'd do the same thing.  I would rather have a diverse portfolio than all my eggs in one basket.  Selling some of SatoshiDICE allows you to take some other risks elsewhere.  I just think it's important to emphasize to the investors that this money isn't all going toward efforts to increase the business' value.  Apart from the portion going toward the marketing, it's an independent shareholder selling his shares.  After this round, if the company ever wishes to sell shares again, it'll have to compete with existing shareholders.  It'll be interesting to see what happens to the price then.


With that said, there is no denying legality risk. If there were no legality risk, the offering price would be higher.
wow!  Well, nobody can stop you from charging whatever you think the shares are worth.


It is not a registered legal entity. It’s a website. I’m not sure what “properly allow investment” means. The terms are stated, they are clear, and I have signed them with provable identification. Bitcoin is a free market, and this is a voluntary contract. I understand most of the world does not operate in this way, but that’s part of the problem, and I’m spending my life fighting it. Not by protesting with signs and letters to congressmen, but by building alternatives and living by my principles.
Sure it's a website but a business is operating at that website.  In the United States (and elsewhere) there are laws about who you can accept investments from, and for investors to be protected, the company needs to have a certain structure, bylaws/operating agreement, etc.  I'm beginning to understand that this whole operation and stock sale are not intended to take in to consideration any body of law, and you all are comfortable with the risks involved with that.  It's basically a gentleman's agreement offered on a handshake.  I think you would be better protected legally if you did not make this offer in terms of shares/company ownership, and rather just allowed people to purchase a contract for a percentage of profits.  If a shareholder ever decides to sue you, it's going to be a mess.


This is true. According to the prospectus, 10% is going to a very large European print campaign, and the new website has already been paid for. Beyond that, the funds are my own and I’ll do with them what I wish. Some will inevitably be spent furthering my remaining 90% stake in SD (my incentives in that regard are not changed at all by such a small equity offering)
Sure, you still have a lot of incentive to grow the business.  Any money from this round of funding that does not go in to the company's coffers will be money that has to be spent out of profits later.  I don't think I've ever seen a pitch to raise funds where that money wasn't going directly in to expanding the business, but again, I now realize that there is very little money actually being raised, and the majority of the sale is a private shareholder liquidating.


, some will inevitably be spent on other BTC projects. Most of it will be saved for possible future opportunities in this world we’re trying to build.
Full time, no, but yes I’m actively involved in growing it. Everyone reading this knows about SD because I’ve grown it and I will continue to do so (it would be quite silly to work on a site of which I own 100% only to stop working upon owning 90%).  And indeed, the site doesn’t require full time management. Part of its charm is the low overhead in time resources. My full time job is with BitInstant. SD is one of a handful of projects I work on.
This brings up another possibility.  I'd much rather invest in Erik Voorhees, Inc. than SatoshiDICE.  Since you won't be devoted to SatoshiDICE full-time, why not consolidate your efforts under one umbrella and allow people to purchase a stake of everything you produce?  What if you come up with something else like SatoshiDICE but better and decide to devote your time to that since it both produces more profit, and you own a larger stake?  I suppose this is where you and your investors would find out how far a handshake goes in court.


This is false, the company has over 7k BTC in reserves currently. If there were legal challenges to SatoshiDICE, it would be deducted from net profits. Let’s remember here that the site currently earns 33k BTC per year in net profits, and can certainly afford legal assistance if needed, but if harmful legal attention was brought to SatoshiDICE we’d probably have bigger problems within the BTC world as a whole. Legal risk is part of the business – though investors in this IPO are not liable for anything, other than potential lost profits.
I'm glad that you now recognize it as a business and not simply a website.  It's nice to think that the site will be doing well enough to cover legal fees should they arise, but often legal problems come up when you're running out of money--just ask Intersango Wink  Anyway, 7k BTC sounds like reasonable reserves.  Investors potentially do create exposure for themselves beyond lost profits:  https://vcexperts.com/buzz_articles/1180


The site has been DDoS’d a couple times and this has not been a problem. By the nature of the structure, let’s remember that bets to the site are placed via the Bitcoin network, not the website, so in case of some massive attack on the site, we just post the bet addresses somewhere else temporarily and most players can continue playing without a hiccup. The only real attack against SD’s playability would be if the BTC network was under attacked and in that case, again, we have bigger problems.
True.  Given the site's structure and relative simplicity, it's probably not going to be an expensive issue to deal with.  Unfortunately, this also means lower barrier to entry.


No idea… depends which country we’re talking about. SatoshiDICE needn’t exist in any specific country. It is not tied to a bank account.
I'd most be worried about the countries that you live in, travel through and have servers in:  http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/uk-gambling-ceo-arrested-at-us-airport/


If Bitcoin goes bust and is not replaced by another cryptocurrency, SD is probably worthless… but so are the BTC you chose not to invest, no?
If Bitcoin goes bust and another cryptocurrency arrives, SD would almost certainly adopt it and continue on (and this is fundamentally why Bitcoin, or the Bitcoin concept at least, will almost inevitably win against its competition).
The difference with BTC is that they're much more liquid.  If I see the end coming, I can cash out.  It'd probably be a lot more difficult to ditch my SD shares.  What if that other crypto-currency has SD built in?  My main problem is that the company has no real assets and doesn't intend to accumulate any that might be of value to investors if the site shuts down.  The company doesn't plan to diversify (beyond possibly a similar crypto-currency).  For the same reasons you want to sell 10% of your shares, I'd like to see company diversify its offerings.


The brand name and massive ubiquity of the site are not easily replicable. The free advertising and word of mouth discussion the site gets from its current position is not replicable. Holding 6 of the top 7 addresses in the Bitcoin blockchain is not easily replicable. The business relationships and reputation I have with people are not easily replicable. The integration into blockchain.info’s wallet and mobile app are not easily replicable.  Beyond that, the concept can be (and is) copied.
We might have said the same things about MySpace before Facebook came along, or Gox before Bitcoinica.  It's still very early days for Bitcoin (and SD) and there are still very few professional offerings to compete with but that will change.


Can they do a lot more than SD if SD also raises 300k…? Ponder on that a while and you’ll discover one of the main reasons I’m doing this Wink
Well, I'd say that using the funds raised to rocket SD far beyond the competition's reach would be great, but we're really talking about $30k going toward that, not $300k, right?


I fully agree with the first part of that statement, I say the same thing to lots of people. Betting on a Bitcoin company is almost certainly riskier than betting on Bitcoin itself. If the return you expect doesn’t justify it, then it’s best for you to stay in BTC. We can both agree that it is SatoshiDICE’s future which will dictate whether the investors at the IPO get a good return. At zero growth, perhaps it’s a wash given the opportunity cost of the coins. However, with even small growth in the site the dividends + share appreciation should make any investor who’s not seeking 7% returns per week happy.
Everybody is going to have a different opportunity cost for the coins but that is what a 'good' return will be measured by.  I'm pissed that I didn't sell everything I own to buy Bitcoin when it hit $2.  Do investors think better offerings will come up that will make them wish they didn't have their money tied up in this 5-year break-even plan?  Things are happening, as Bruce Wagner likes to say, in 'Bitcoin time'.


In the prospectus and contract it states that SD doesn’t pay salaries and salaries wouldn’t be deducted from net profits. Good question, though.
So who does pay employees/contractors?  Are you not in some capacity an agent for the business?  Who does the company hold responsible if somebody screws up?  Is it all volunteer work with immunity then?  There is no set amount of hours that the shareholders can expect the company will employ someone to work on the business?  Is there a board of directors who instructs these volunteers?  Or, does Erik just pay the compensation out of pocket for work performed on the company's behalf?


Only if SatoshiDICE doesn’t grow and perform to a standard that the future investor would find attractive. There’s always a price for everything, and the price to buy 10% of SD today won’t be the same price in a year, and I can almost guarantee that. The gamble will be whether it’s higher or lower. Further, if not all the shares are purchased at this price, I wouldn’t call that “botched” – it just means the market disagrees with me on the valuation, and that’s fine. If the market disagrees with my valuation, life goes on, and I keep the shares and the profits in that case and will continue building it as I have been.
By botched I mean illegal.  It would probably be too much of a problem for any organization concerned with legal compliance to purchase SD after a funding round like this.


This is a risk for all businesses everywhere, no? Holding your Bitcoins as you are now exposes them to acts of god… though I hear CoinBase’s new ewallet has a feature to protect against deity risk.
I should have said Acts of Gavin Tongue  Is it likely that SD would be obsoleted/broken by changes to Bitcoin?


I respect your opinion, and greatly appreciate your questions. You say you’d gladly take my end of the deal all day long, but of course, the only way you can be in my position is to own a piece of SD so that when the Macau casino buys it you’ll be on the selling side… Wink
I wish I could own a piece but for my own opportunity cost, the price of the shares and the risks at hand, I'm going to pass.  I hope you'll still invite me to the party in Macau Tongue


This is a good point, and primarily I chose to release this a bit early because of the Pirate issues. I thought it’d be wise to offer an investment to Bitcoinworld that had transparency and profits which were A) verifiable and B) sustainable. If Bitcoiners are only looking for investments paying a few percent per week, I unfortunately have no idea how to offer such a thing.
Probably a wise choice to present an alternative investment opportunity before the idle coin is thrown away on the next ponzi.  Boring ol' verifiable and sustainable have not been popular so far, unfortunately.


I'll end by saying that just because I'm not investing, that doesn't mean the deal isn't a good opportunity for some people.  You'll have to assess the risks and opportunity cost for yourself.  There are definitely worse guys you could give your money to than Erik--he's trustworthy and he'll probably use it to continue doing great things for Bitcoin.  Good luck all around.

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August 25, 2012, 01:31:43 PM
 #310

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I'm beginning to understand that this whole operation and stock sale are not intended to take in to consideration any body of law, and you all are comfortable with the risks involved with that.  It's basically a gentleman's agreement offered on a handshake.

That is exactly correct, and it is both necessary and implicit in the notion of "free market". This is how banking worked, at the time that banking actually worked and it was being done by Lombards. This is how diamonds are still traded in Antwerp today, millions' worth of stones moving around on the mere personal cognizance and say-so of trusted members. This is what having a free market both requires and means.

Quote
My main problem is that the company has no real assets and doesn't intend to accumulate any that might be of value to investors if the site shuts down.

This is a blessing in disguise. The more that is accumulated the more is at risk. Paying out to investors actually reduces risks, and is thus a good thing. What would you really prefer, situation A where 1k BTC accumulated over 100 intervals resulting in a 100k BTC pot somewhere, or situation B where 1k BTC were paid out over 100 intervals resulting in 100 payments of 1k to investors? Cause looking at past experience the only certain thing is that investors aren't getting 100k BTC from situation A.

Quote
or Gox before Bitcoinica

This has got to be a joke of some kind. Gox deals in millions, Bitcoinica dealt in 10's of ks at its peak. MtGox got hacked, survived and apparently learned from those mistakes, Bitcoinica got hacked, failed to learn from mistakes, imploding. You're proposing a poodle took over the brontosaurus here.

Quote
Do investors think better offerings will come up that will make them wish they didn't have their money tied up in this 5-year break-even plan?

This is not a plan. Looky here:

Quote
<assbot> [MPEX:S.DICE] 1day: 0.0032 / 0.00320205 / 0.003232 (1609462 shares, 5,153.58 BTC), 30day: 0.0032 / 0.00320205 / 0.003232 (1609462 shares, 5,153.58 BTC)
<assbot> [GLBSE:GIGAMINING] [Bid: 0.9651] [Ask: 0.9845] [Spread: 0.0194] [Last: 0.982] [24hVol: 76.55499] [7dAvg: 0.99266985]
<assbot> [GLBSE:TYGRR.BOND-P] [Bid: 0.6001337] [Ask: 0.6699] [Spread: 0.0697663] [Last: 0.6001337] [24hVol: 201.28088084] [7dAvg: 0.68518132]

S.DICE is by a wide margin the most liquid of all BTC assets. Sure, if you're looking to get out 10k BTC it might take days. Days, not five years. Then again, if you're looking to sell 10k BTC it might take a little on MtGox too. Certainly a 100k hard sell is sending the market tumbling. But if you're looking to to cash out a couple hundred...none of these are real concerns.

In the end it all works similar to how fiat-based stocks work: if you go in for a few shares it's one thing. If you go buy whole percents of a stock, be it BP or GOOG you're not going to be able to divest in five minutes. It's the nature of things, everyone knows this, don't go institutional investor unless you want to be one as it were.

Quote
I should have said Acts of Gavin

No one person owns the bitcoin infrastructure, and nobody cares what any one person does. If what they do is useful then fine, if not then it's irrelevant. This can't be stressed enough, and in a bundle as to the earlier point someone raised of "what if blocks become full": not only the bets minimums could be raised, but moreover a currency that can't process transactions is thus irrelevant. Either it fixes itself or we all move on at that point.

Quote
I'll end by saying that just because I'm not investing, that doesn't mean the deal isn't a good opportunity for some people.  You'll have to assess the risks and opportunity cost for yourself.  There are definitely worse guys you could give your money to than Erik--he's trustworthy and he'll probably use it to continue doing great things for Bitcoin.  Good luck all around.

I'd say this is the sort of thing by which bitcoin stands to gain.

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August 25, 2012, 02:03:55 PM
 #311

True enough... though the statistical profits should actually be higher than the actual profit thus far. So the site has made -less- than the statistical odds would suggest. Running the site longer should move the real return higher, not lower. With flat performance, the numbers will improve, not worsen.

Just like a horizontal line, if it remains horizontal with time, has more of a tendency to go up than down if you wait long enough?   Shocked
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August 25, 2012, 02:17:10 PM
 #312

Big mistake for Erik using that exchange.

I understand you feel this passionately.

I disagree, my experience with MPEx has been fine - though admittedly more complicated that GLBSE. Yet, the IPO started today and GLBSE was down for several hours and MPEx did not suffer the same issue.

You're so resistant to the idea that maybe it's okay if there are two exchanges... seems like a good thing, not a bad thing, to me.

The poster's issue was apparently with MPEx.  Please don't insult the readers' intelligence and pretend in your response that the original issue was advocating the monopoly of a single exchange.

The distinction is obvious and you do yourself no favours avoiding the salient points in such ways.

It makes me wonder as to the actual nature of your agreement and how you might benefit from it.
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August 25, 2012, 02:37:47 PM
 #313

It makes me wonder as to the actual nature of your agreement and how you might benefit from it.

I give credit to Mr V. for being the first to come out with a semi-credible IPO (although the conditions surrounding its release are not quite savory).

If anything, this shows us where the kinks in the system lie. A shady exchange, the kludgy necessity of a "pass through" to get listed on a real exchange.

You bring up a great point. Unlike a government sanctioned securities exchange, there are no regulations here. The prospectus for S.DICE never promised full insider transparency. How many shares does the owner hold? Was MPOx given any compensation? What are the details of the business arrangement between SatoshiDICE and Blockchain?

How will anyone know if they are investing in a company in which there is a conflict of interest?
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August 25, 2012, 02:46:29 PM
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If anything, this shows us where the kinks in the system lie. A shady exchange, the kludgy necessity of a "pass through" to get listed on a real exchange.

You are either an idiot or a shill. Which of the two is it?

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August 25, 2012, 02:49:54 PM
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And this is exactly why MPOx cannot be taken seriously:

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Why on earth did S.DICE align itself with an operation that goes around calling forum members "idiots?"
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August 25, 2012, 02:53:25 PM
 #316

It's well known that MPEX's PR is not the best. To gain respect as an exchange, they need to fire their current PR immediately and replace them with a new one.
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August 25, 2012, 03:18:08 PM
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It's well known that MPEX's PR is not the best. To gain respect as an exchange, they need to fire their current PR immediately and replace them with a new one.

He is just lying about the PR person. This is Mircea Popescu himself, and he is here to stay. He is known on the forums for his sock puppets and insulting anyone who doesn't agree with him.
It is just a matter of time until problems will arise and it won't be pretty.

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August 25, 2012, 03:33:44 PM
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Vinnie Falco sells out to the RIAA
Wonder why I'm not surprised at this?

In the past, he's denied that Bearshare had any spyware in
it. WhenU is spyware, and it is bundled with Bearshare.
Vinnie has been caught at this more than once: a few years
ago, there were forums for users of Becky's email client,
and one of these concerned p2p apps. Vinnie posted in a
topic on the forum, denying that Bearshare had bundled
adware in it.

Yeah, I would say shill. Get lost.

Quote
It's well known that MPEX's PR is not the best. To gain respect as an exchange, they need to fire their current PR immediately and replace them with a new one.

Code:
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Users that repeat false information will be told to fuck off as a point of policy. These are my standing orders.

If you do not wish to be told to fuck off either 1) verify the facts before you make a statement or 2) verify the facts after you have made a statement and you were told your statement is false, but before repeating that statement.

If you were told to fuck of it is because you failed to abide by the simple rules laid out above. There is nothing you can do other than obey the two simple rules laid out above, or else fuck off.
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On a personal note, I find the gall of the misguided claims on the exchanges subject appalling. I will not turn this into an attack of the other exchange, the guy in charge of it is at least working to consolidate his secondary position, and from what I hear hasn't slept in three days. But the pretense of the forum trolls has to stop. We all know who's the top dog here, pretending it ain't so makes you look ridiculous at most. In general, it just makes you look stupid.

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August 25, 2012, 03:36:14 PM
 #319

Mircea just forgot his meds again. Here are some facts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102333.0

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August 25, 2012, 03:40:43 PM
 #320

Quote
Vinnie Falco sells out to the RIAA
Wonder why I'm not surprised at this?

In the past, he's denied that Bearshare had any spyware in
it. WhenU is spyware, and it is bundled with Bearshare.
Vinnie has been caught at this more than once: a few years
ago, there were forums for users of Becky's email client,
and one of these concerned p2p apps. Vinnie posted in a
topic on the forum, denying that Bearshare had bundled
adware in it.

Yeah, I would say shill. Get lost.

Quote
It's well known that MPEX's PR is not the best. To gain respect as an exchange, they need to fire their current PR immediately and replace them with a new one.

Code:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

Users that repeat false information will be told to fuck off as a point of policy. These are my standing orders.

If you do not wish to be told to fuck off either 1) verify the facts before you make a statement or 2) verify the facts after you have made a statement and you were told your statement is false, but before repeating that statement.

If you were told to fuck of it is because you failed to abide by the simple rules laid out above. There is nothing you can do other than obey the two simple rules laid out above, or else fuck off.
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Version: GnuPG v1.4.10 (GNU/Linux)

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On a personal note, I find the gall of the misguided claims on the exchanges subject appalling. I will not turn this into an attack of the other exchange, the guy in charge of it is at least working to consolidate his secondary position, and from what I hear hasn't slept in three days. But the pretense of the forum trolls has to stop. We all know who's the top dog here, pretending it ain't so makes you look ridiculous at most. In general, it just makes you look stupid.
PR my foot. A 3-year old toddler is more polite than you are. Ignored.
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