Martin Armstrong Discussion

[sidhujag]

Damn im getting bullish on gold.. retail sentiment seems shifted to bearish

[r0ach]

He has been accurate on his calls, in Gold nearest futures, charts. If you can confidently make the call that if gold don't elect the reversal at 1362 on a monthly closing basis we will see a waterfall event on gold prices and it did happen as he said it

This is complete nonsense pretending Armstrong is some type of prophet.  Anyone that has ANY CLUE about the metals markets knows the ESF/FED FORCE the market into reversals at inflection points if they possibly can.  Since the paper market is only one entity, this "one bank", a single player that moves the price around, Armstrong's algo is just backtested data on what this cartel is doing.  But, there will come a point where this cartel is unable to do these actions anymore for whatever reason, and then gold will do the exact opposite of whatever Armstrong thinks since he was never forecasting an aggregate market in the first place.

I do not plan to be sitting on the sidelines like an idiot with zero metals when that happens.  They're called "black swan events" because old men who make believe they're hot shit like Armstrong get railroaded by them and lose everything while people who just dollar cost average always win.

[sidhujag]

He has been accurate on his calls, in Gold nearest futures, charts. If you can confidently make the call that if gold don't elect the reversal at 1362 on a monthly closing basis we will see a waterfall event on gold prices and it did happen as he said it

This is complete nonsense pretending Armstrong is some type of prophet.  Anyone that has ANY CLUE about the metals markets knows the ESF/FED FORCE the market into reversals at inflection points if they possibly can.  Since the paper market is only one entity, this "one bank", a single player that moves the price around, Armstrong's algo is just backtested data on what this cartel is doing.  But, there will come a point where this cartel is unable to do these actions anymore for whatever reason, and then gold will do the exact opposite of whatever Armstrong thinks since he was never forecasting an aggregate market in the first place.

I do not plan to be sitting on the sidelines like an idiot with zero metals when that happens.  They're called "black swan events" because old men who make believe they're hot shit like Armstrong get railroaded by them and lose everything while people who just dollar cost average always win.

I dont think armstrong is in the incrowd he just thinks he is one of them by what your saying.. armstrong tries to encapsulate black swans with pi but so far my astro financial predictor has been better than him at med term trends... armstrong predcited a turn for the worst against govts and i think that is happening but we wont see it in markets for a while until.cnbc and the likes pick it up.

[r0ach]

armstrong predcited a turn for the worst against govts and i think that is happening but we wont see it in markets for a while until.cnbc and the likes pick it up.

Lol, a long time ago I went and back tested when the media was claiming gold was a "barbarous relic" and noticed when they were saying that, it was actually the floor and they were all buying with both hands.  The second you see CNBC say to dump something, buy all of it.  Armstrong is probably in on the CNBC scam and was buying while telling everyone it's going to crash.  Now here we are and it's up $70 instead.

[AliyaAsael]

He has been accurate on his calls, in Gold nearest futures, charts. If you can confidently make the call that if gold don't elect the reversal at 1362 on a monthly closing basis we will see a waterfall event on gold prices and it did happen as he said it

This is complete nonsense pretending Armstrong is some type of prophet.  Anyone that has ANY CLUE about the metals markets knows the ESF/FED FORCE the market into reversals at inflection points if they possibly can.  Since the paper market is only one entity, this "one bank", a single player that moves the price around, Armstrong's algo is just backtested data on what this cartel is doing.  But, there will come a point where this cartel is unable to do these actions anymore for whatever reason, and then gold will do the exact opposite of whatever Armstrong thinks since he was never forecasting an aggregate market in the first place.

I do not plan to be sitting on the sidelines like an idiot with zero metals when that happens.  They're called "black swan events" because old men who make believe they're hot shit like Armstrong get railroaded by them and lose everything while people who just dollar cost average always win.

So what if it was forced into these reversal? The case is if you followed his blog, right then as I did you would save a lot of money. What is the point of buying gold around 1500+ d/oz line, when everone in the market said gold would be bullish, when now there is a chance it will go lower. Why not buy gold at maybe even 800's double the amount of gold bought and maybe even making money in the proces following the sell signals, (thus comming out and have more gold than before)compared to as in if you bought it in high price range.

Isn't this the whole point buying more gold?

[iamnotback]

Now here we are and it's [gold] up $70 instead.

Armstrong did predict that deadcat bounce. And I wrote about that in this thread last week or week before that.

Don't worry, it is still going much lower.

But your biggest problem with gold is not the price, but the fact that no one uses it as money any more and thus it is very easy for the government to cut off all your avenues for converting it to something you can spend for real goods & services.

No one will ever use gold and silver again to pay for anything. Ever.

Sorry gold is dead. And it isn't coming back. The Internet has changed everything.

Anyone that has ANY CLUE about the metals markets knows the ESF/FED FORCE the market into reversals at inflection points if they possibly can.

You are punch drunk on GATA Koolaid. You are delusional. Get out of your armchair and go get some real world experience.

While this scumbag shill Armstrong claims gold is not manipulated

The man has real world experience with outwitting the manipulators and he has explained they can't manipulate it permanently to the downside.

http://gata.org/node/17081

Btw, I have spoken to the guys at GATA and they are not that smart.

I recognize intelligence when I see it. Armstrong is very intelligent. These charlatans at GATA are not.

Why not buy gold at maybe even 800's double the amount of gold bought and maybe even making money in the proces following the sell signals, (thus comming out and have more gold than before)compared to as in if you bought it in high price range.

Isn't this the whole point buying more gold?

He is not buying for a rational reason of buying low and selling high. For him, it is a religion against paper gold.

Whenever religion is involved, then you might as well be preaching to a stone. He can't hear you. His mind controlled by his prophet GATA.

His entire identity is locked up in there being truth to the GATA story. And that Jews cause all the world's problems. Etc. It is a religion, so don't expect him to be objective.

You are asking him to admit his entire thesis for his life is an error.

[iamnotback]

After I get some sleep when I am back home, I will explain what I think we need in terms of crypto-currency and blockchains in order for them to play this role that gold used to have but no longer can fulfill.

The governments are getting organized so as to prevent anyone from having assets for which they can't show a paper trail indicating that they have paid all their taxes and that the wealth was not ill gotten such as money laundering.

It is possible that in a Marxist global collapse (or even only your own country which claims you as a tax slave for a wealth tax), the governments go bezerk and basically confiscate all wealth. This would be a Dark Age if it were global.

This problem was quite easy to solve with cash, you would open a business then spend you cash as a customer at your own business thus laundering the cash and making it legit. (note I am not advocating illegal activity, but rather just stating what others did)

But governments are eliminating cash.

And gold can't serve this function, because nobody pays for anything with gold any more.

This is why a crypto-currency that has a high amount of use for payments on the Internet for the Knowledge Age (think of micropayments for example) can serve a function that gold used to provide (but no longer does) as being a way to preserve assets. Decentralization will be a crucial feature of such a crypto-currency and nobody has shown such a technology yet.

Until the world government has a 666 id on every human on the planet, then there is no way they are practically going to be able track every micropayment. We are still some decades away from that 666 result.

Remember my thesis is the monetary systems of the world will bifurcate into a usurious fiat system seving the dying Industrial Age and a crypto-currency system serving the fledgling Knowledge Age. Let the Marxists have their dying system with SDRs and national currencies enslaved to the SDRs. That is not for us. We are moving forward. It is very likely that the Marxists are going to cull themselves. We should not subscribe to their system.

Tinfoil hats are living in some archaic delusion and are going to miss the boat.

[OROBTC]

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iamnotback wrote:

"The governments are getting organized so as to prevent anyone from having assets for which they can't show a paper trail indicating that they have paid all their taxes and that the wealth was not ill gotten such as money laundering.

It is possible that in a Marxist global collapse (or even only your own country which claims you as a tax slave for a wealth tax), the governments go bezerk and basically confiscate all wealth. This would be a Dark Age if it were global."

That is one of Armstrong's greatest pair of observations.

* * *

I would not write-off gold yet though.  Just because it has no monetary role does not necessarily mean that its value will be unrecognized in the future.

Interesting comment about GATA people being "FOS", I will re-visit some of their recent work and judge for myself.  My *hunch* (FWTW, which is near zero), I doubt massive manipulation of gold & silver.

While I do share iamnotback's general observations on the direction ahead re Marxist(s) and the types of governments we can expect, I cannot accept that we can know with any (or much) specificity what will happen, there really is too much entropy out there...

[I accept that I understand entropy far less than iamnotback and CoinCube who have both explored the topic at length on other threads]

* * *

Re investments, I also share above comments about "dollar cost averaging", whether for gold, Bitcoin and anything else that one would invest in -- as long as one has a basic understanding of the investments and their risk/return profile.

[iamnotback]

I would not write-off gold yet though.  Just because it has no monetary role does not necessarily mean that its value will be unrecognized in the future.

But that doesn't at all address the point that I made.

The entire point of gold is to be a hedge against (the bezerk Marxist) government. But if you have no way of trading it without being regulated by the government, then it has lost that function.

That it still has a value is irrelevant. If you are just speculating on the price, then just buy paper gold. Obviously the entire reason you buy physical gold (other than small ornamental quantities) is you expect that you can liquidate it without the government's permission. And I am explaining that you won't necessarily be able to do that. In fact, you can't move it without the government's permission. Crypto-currency doesn't have these deficiencies.

[iamnotback]

Armstrong on bitcoin again

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/bitcoin-is-it-sustainable/

Doesn't really get into it in any depth. Seems convinced govt will ban it if it grows.

Armstrong doesn't understand that it is technically implausible to ban Bitcoin.

He doesn't understand that is why Bitcoin is the new escape valve, i.e. the new gold per my discussion with CoinCube. Bitcoin is transportable and gold no longer is.

We will need a world government and complete totalitarian control over every server that connects to the Internet via every host in the world in order to regulate crypto-currency and blockchains. We need absolute global totalitarianism in order to relegate crypto-currency to the new uselessness of gold, and that won't happen during this global collapse (that is for a future time as the Bible predicts). It isn't only Bitcoin, there are many altcoins.

Please send this rebuttal to Armstrong.

It may indeed be impossible to ban bitcoin in the long term, but in the short to medium term? It would IMHO be very messy should a major economic player attempt such a thing.

Imagine the US gov. shutting down coinbase/bitstamp/etc, even declaring jail time for those that are caught using bitcoin after the ban.  Bitcoin investors would panic and most bitcoin holders would make a mad dash for the exit, cratering the price.  It would almost certainly end up recovering eventually (as you said it would require a NWO to ban completely), but who knows how long that might take; in the meantime btc wouldn't look so good as store of value even to those not directly affected.  I feel a ban from a major nation such as the US or China would not be a negligible event, and I would imagine Armstrong is thinking along those lines.

It would be a great opportunity to back up the truck and fill it up with BTC at lower prices, because this would be the US government shooting themselves in the foot.

The worst thing a government can do is ban something only to have the population give them the middle finger and it be proven that the government is impotent. From there, Bitcoin would skyrocket in price as it being shown how powerless the government is to ban it.

You are too fearful because you are a short-term speculator. Long-term crypto-currency investors understand that this is a paradigm shift for the world and they understand they are going to be very wealthy over the coming decade.

Weak hands will be thrown off and end up not being wealthy.

Apparently some of you have messaged Armstrong, but he is hard-headed and still doesn't understand that technically it is implausible ban all crypto-currencies regardless if the government wants to:

I understand that people say I am wrong about bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. You cannot possibly fight against government. They can say whatever they want and their judges rule in government’s favor. Forget it! You cannot find any possible legal argument that will ever survive.

Can someone please message him and explain to him how dull minded he is on this issue. Explain what I wrote as quoted above about needing to ban every server on the planet. How the hell are governments going to coordinate and then enforce that?

Oh course governments can probably regulate the mining farms in China (and they could attack and hardfork with their superior hashrate), but that is why we will have altcoins, in particular the one I am developing which doesn't depend on either proof-of-work nor proof-of-stake.

Remind Martin, it is Shelby Moore who is refuting him. He should remember me from email. I am tired of emailing him. He should hear from more of you, instead always myself emailing him.

Unfortunately Martin Armstrong continues this false reporting on Bitcoin:

Bitcoin has been the escape method for capital fleeing China. China’s major bitcoin exchanges halted or otherwise updated their bitcoin trading services. The changes to bitcoin are being made in response to interactions with the People’s Bank of China. The People’s Bank of China delivered “informal guidance” that is beginning to take notice of the capital flight through bitcoin exchanges. The central bank called in the big exchanges for a discussion.

Bitcoin is not being shut down, but there is concern that the capital flight must be stopped. BTCC is the only exchange to explain the changes in a message posted to its website: “BTCC will [suspend loans and borrowing services] from 12th January, 2017.”

Effectively, loan-based trading services were no longer available using bitcoin.

The truth is that China's regulators are simply trying to reduce excessive volatility by doing some oversight on margin trading.

A regional exchange employee wishing to remain anonymous dismissed the news as "no big deal" and unlikely to be motivated by any fears that bitcoin may compete with the yuan.

Another exchange employee, who wished to remain unidentified, expressed dissatisfaction with the reporting, alleging that some of the directives were not in fact new, though he did not provide clarity on which might have been previously given.

“The creation of regulations will more likely benefit the industry than hamper it,” he told CoinDesk. “We are already seeing this happening. BTCC has just announced that they had stopped providing leverage and other exchanges will likely follow suit.”

He elaborated on the situation's foreseeable costs and benefits, stating: “We will likely experience a price decline, but bitcoin's volatility will be reduced. Reduced volatility, combined with a stamp of approval from PBoC with regulation, will likely positively contribute to bitcoin's adoption in China and elsewhere.”

Zivkovski took a similar view, saying:

“In a nutshell, regulating margin trading is a very smart consumer protection policy.”

The reduced use of margin should lower the incidence of long and short squeezes, he emphasized, which should reduce volatility.

[r0ach]

He is not buying for a rational reason of buying low and selling high. For him, it is a religion against paper gold.

You are asking him to admit his entire thesis for his life is an error.

No offense, but your thesis on a so called knowledge age is completely irrational.  When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.  With both working age demographic and energy output declining, people will be spending more time and effort doing work for the basic necessities and nobody is going to be overpaying people for shuffling numbers on a computer unless it involves something to do with solving the energy problem.

"Excess" energy is why a day's wage in Rome was a small amount of silver and why it's a larger amount of silver now.  Instead of humans having to dig it up, the work was being done for free by machines, thus devaluing it's worth.  But, the time of arbitraging "free" energy into depleting all resources like metals as fast as possible is over now (that and the fact peak metals is occurring regardless the state of energy).  Unless fusion power solves all these problems (not likely because fusion is actually low EROI), then we already hit peak energy, peak cheap metals, peak cheap food, and this energy arbitrage scheme is ending, possibly in a Seneca cliff.



Here's one example of such a chart.  Remember that all wealth is based on energy output since abundance is really just machines burning fossil fuels to do work for you instead of you doing it.  In the gas sector, the high energy yielding conventional stuff is all cratering, so all they did was grab more of the lower return on investment stuff to try and compensate (same thing in the oil market).  So, as this cycle continues, your civilization's wealth continues to decrease until you get to the point of borderline thermodynamic collapse if it uses as much energy to drive the shale oil to market as it does to extract it (and shale is low return on investment).

So, I hate to rain on your parade, but there is no so called knowledge age unless there's some type of enormous energy breakthrough.  Russian govt energy analysts see things getting really bad by around 2020 and say there is no technological solution in sight.  There is no coming out on the other side of the monetary reset with some type of "utopia".  In fact, one of the reasons it's currently crashing is because it relies on infinite growth and the energy situation prevents that.

[OROBTC]

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r0ach

Sounds like you have been reading srsroccoreport.com.

Steve writes about precious metals and energy, and is convinced that the easy (high EROI) energy, especially oil, has been found.  And that things will start getting bad soon.  Offering intelligent commentary on his work is beyond my competence other than he offers up plausible explanations.  He does write that precious metals are a place to hide.

[r0ach]

...

r0ach

Sounds like you have been reading srsroccoreport.com.

Steve writes about precious metals and energy, and is convinced that the easy (high EROI) energy, especially oil, has been found.  And that things will start getting bad soon.  Offering intelligent commentary on his work is beyond my competence other than he offers up plausible explanations.  He does write that precious metals are a place to hide.

I dove into this stuff, what was it, like 10 years ago when the term peak oil popped up everywhere?  It is not just the SRSROCCO guy talking about it.  Russian and US energy analysts + many others have been talking about it forever.  The SRSRocco guy doesn't even talk about the natural gas market, but there it is for you to see happening there too.  So it's all just a continuation of the "peak oil" story except where people used to think it would be some type of immediate disappearance in supply, it's evolving in more complex ways.

It leads you into other questions such as, was the carbon tax entirely just an Enron scam?  A plot to try and force people into world govt that has nothing to do with energy?  Or some type of way to attempt to force people to subsidize the energy sector to maintain the status quo of life?  Or all of the above?  The fact that Trump has this Exxon guy as his new right hand man makes me believe this actually is becoming a big problem.

[CoinCube]

No offense, but your thesis on a so called knowledge age is completely irrational.  When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.  With both working age demographic and energy output declining, people will be spending more time and effort doing work for the basic necessities and nobody is going to be overpaying people for shuffling numbers on a computer unless it involves something to do with solving the energy problem.
...
So, I hate to rain on your parade, but there is no so called knowledge age unless there's some type of enormous energy breakthrough.  Russian govt energy analysts see things getting really bad by around 2020 and say there is no technological solution in sight.  There is no coming out on the other side of the monetary reset with some type of "utopia".  In fact, one of the reasons it's currently crashing is because it relies on infinite growth and the energy situation prevents that.

In my opinion your error here is looking at this situation as one of collapse. The system is not going to collapse just change. We might not like the change and our quality of life especially in the West may decline but our disliking does not equate to collapse. What we are witnessing is not the start of collapse but the undermining of the old order as it is swept away to form the new. I agree there will be a monetary reset and I agree we will not come out of that reset into some form of utopia but into something else entirely. That something else will have its merits and its faults. I believe we are currently on the verge of transitioning from cycle #4 to cycle #5 in the post below.

Sustained increases in living conditions result only from gains in knowledge. Top-down control plays in role in the the organization needed to facilitate the emergence of new knowledge. Top-down control facilitates its own removal for new knowledge eventually circumvents and undermines the prior order allowing society to climb to higher energy systems. The new system is also one of top-down control but the knowledge gained allows for an overall relaxation of the imposed order increasing economic degrees-of-freedom.

The evolution of the social contract is a progressive climb to higher potential energy systems with increased degrees of freedom. The state of nature begat tribalism. Tribalism grew into despotism. Despotism advanced into monarchy. Monarchies were replaced by republics. It is likely that in the near future republics will be consumed by world government, and perhaps someday world government will evolve into decentralized government.

Each iteration has a common theme for each advance increases the number of individuals able to engage in cooperative activity while lowering the number of individuals able to defect. Each iteration increases the sustainable degrees of freedom the system can support.  

Cycles of Contention

		Cycle #1	Cycle #2	Cycle #3	Cycle #4	Cycle #5	Cycle #6
	Mechanism of Control	Knowledge of Evil	Warlordism	Holy War	Usury	Universal Surveillance	Hedonism
	Rulers	The Strong	Despots	God Kings/Monarchs	Capitalists	Oligarchs (NWO)	Decentralized Government
	Life of the Ruled	"Nasty, Brutish, Short"	Slaves	Surfs	Debtors	Basic Income Recipients	Knowledge Workers
	Facilitated Advance	Knowledge of Good	Commerce	Rule of Law	Growth	Transparency	Ascesis

[OROBTC]

...

r0ach

Sounds like you have been reading srsroccoreport.com.

Steve writes about precious metals and energy, and is convinced that the easy (high EROI) energy, especially oil, has been found.  And that things will start getting bad soon.  Offering intelligent commentary on his work is beyond my competence other than he offers up plausible explanations.  He does write that precious metals are a place to hide.

I dove into this stuff what was it, like 10 years ago when the term peak oil popped up everywhere?  It is not just the SRSROCCO guy talking about it.  Russian govt energy analysts + many others have been talking about it forever.  The SRSRocco guy doesn't even talk about the natural gas market, but there it is for you to see happening there too.  So it's all just a continuation of the "peak oil" story except where people used to think it would be some type of immediate disappearance in supply, it's evolving in much more complex ways.

Yes, of course.  When the term "Peak Oil" became a meme -- about the time Simmons made "Hubbard's Peak" famous -- I began following the issue.  

Ah, so far there is no really good evidence that the peak is here yet, but the experience with shale oil and shale gas (low EROI) should offer food for thought given time.  Of course oil industry observers have been saying that the easy oil has already been found...  For the past 100 years...

[r0ach]

Of course oil industry observers have been saying that the easy oil has already been found...  For the past 100 years...

There is no need to guess.  The fact they are even bothering with shale oil at all and these mega deep water rigs before that should tell you what's going on.  All these world leaders have been visiting Antarctica recently.  Unless they're building some type of nuclear fallout shelter there, I assume they might be trying to get oil out of there too.  If it's not fossil fuels, I definitely want to know what all these people are doing in Antarctica since it would probably be even more interesting.

[iamnotback]

Sounds like you have been reading srsroccoreport.com.

Steve

He and I used to argue back in 2006 and 2007 when I was a silver bug. He is not that smart. If you are following this charlatan then you are really in deep shit.

Of course oil industry observers have been saying that the easy oil has already been found...  For the past 100 years...

There is no need to guess.

I calculated the entire world's oil supply would be the flow of a medium sized river (not even the Mississippi).

There is no peak energy. It is another religious, Malthusian delusion.

Technology (knowledge) always rises to fulfill demand. We can even produce oil from coal if need be.

Besides we are transitioning to an electric, mass transportation future a la Elon Musk's ideas.

It leads you into other questions such as, was the carbon tax entirely just an Enron scam?  A plot to try and force people into world govt that has nothing to do with energy?  Or some type of way to attempt to force people to subsidize the energy sector to maintain the status quo of life?  Or all of the above?  The fact that Trump has this Exxon guy as his new right hand man makes me believe this actually is becoming a big problem.

Occam's Razor informs you that corruption is the reason. You don't need to invent some elaborate delusion.

[iamnotback]

He is not buying for a rational reason of buying low and selling high. For him, it is a religion against paper gold.

You are asking him to admit his entire thesis for his life is an error.

No offense, but your thesis on a so called knowledge age is completely irrational.  When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.

Your thesis is entirely incorrect.

You had better wake up else you will entirely miss the boat.

Profit margins from mass production are dying. The future profit will increasingly come from creativity.

That's in part because Chinese automakers are more aggressive in lowering their costs regardless of quality, said an executive at a multinational auto parts firm.

"The lowest price wins (the contract). That's the process, no questions asked," said the executive, who declined to be identified to avoid impacting future contract bidding.

"And when you win, they come back and ask you for another price reduction," the executive added, noting less stringent safety regulations in China also help keep costs lower than in the United States.

Ah, I have not had a chance to read all of your writings. If I'm not mistaken, you're saying the marginal cost of production will effectively be reached and there will be insufficient margin or even demand to profit on physical goods.

In the sense you describe, it seems that Bitcoin as a reserve will only be a transition. What would the point of a reserve currency be in a Knowledge Age? I'd expect creativity, reputation and work to be indicators of worth instead.

Agreed. We only need reserve currencies in centralized monetary systems. Bitcoin is the link between the fiat world and the crypto-currency world.

In a Knowledge Age, worth is non-fungible.

But whilst humans still cling to stored monetary capital, then we will have these legacy systems.

The only constant is the Second Law of Thermodynamics which informs us that entropy is trending to maximum. The Knowledge Age is all about increasing entropy. You had better make sure you understand this and stop clinging to incorrect bullshit.

[iamnotback]

In my opinion your error here is looking at this situation as one of collapse. The system is not going to collapse just change. We might not like the change and our quality of life especially in the West may decline but our disliking does not equate to collapse. What we are witnessing is not the start of collapse but the undermining of the old order as it is swept away to form the new.

My only quibbles (or clarifications) is that some aspects of the old order may waterfall collapse, so in that sense it may feel like a collapse to some sectors, e.g. as we discussed in the Economic Devastation thread that some jobs may be entirely eliminated by automation.

Also what reasoning do you apply to put Hedonism in Cycle #6 and not #5?

Seems to me the hedonism will head for a peak as the Marxist crap heads for a peak in Cycle #5 because it is the Marxist crap that finances wide-scale hedonism.

According to Armstrong's ECM model, 2032.95 will be the peak of this Private wave meaning moving investment out of government and into private investments. After that will begin a 51.6 year Public wave wherein investment should gradually return to governments (e.g. Asia). Armstrong has stated that 2032.95 is the death of socialism, but what I see is that Asia is ready to fully embrace socialism so I see that 51.6 year Public wave as a growth of socialism in Asia yet it won't yet be bankrupted as it is now in the West.

[iamnotback]

(low EROI)

Humans leverage tools.

Whilst the energy out is greater than the human energy in, then the EROI is positive. For example, humans might use nuclear power to convert coal to oil at a loss of energy, yet still positive w.r.t. the human energy expended.

In short, the way they are calculating EROI is bullshit.

For as long as humans can produce more per capita, then economic growth continues. And remember that all profitable production will come from creativity.

When you have 10 million humans living in a city of high rise buildings with mass transportation, then oil is insignificant relative to growth in production of creativity.

Those who want to measure everything in physical metrics are dinosaurs entirely missing the computer revolution.