Martin Armstrong Discussion

[Lateralus]

FINALLY, Martin actually posted a weekly DOW array. It's been so long since the last one, these days he's too caught up blogging in politics (yawn). Oh well, I'll take what I can get while I wait for Socrates.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/DJIND-W-7-10-2016.jpg

Despite the bears, the US share market continues to press against new highs. The Cash S&P 5oo closed at 212990 after reaching 213171 intraday. The record high remains the week of May 18, 2015, when it reached 213472 closing at 212606. The highest weekly closing was the week of July 13, 2015, at 212664.  Therefore, we have not made a new intraday high, but this was the highest weekly closing.

The Dow closed at 1814674 on Friday, which was neither a new high weekly closing nor a new intraday high. The highest weekly closing was the week of May 11, 2015, when the Dow closed at 1827256.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/DJFOR-W-7-10-2016.jpg

It appears we should see a turning point this week with high volatility returning the week of the 18th. We will explain more on the private blog tomorrow. So far, this has been following our capital flow models very nicely.

I'm long UVXY, I don't think the S&P will go higher than 2150 before a deep retracement down to 2071-2050.

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[OROBTC]

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Armstrong today (11 July) tells of a case of one of his contacts in Italy.  This is the first time I have read of a run on Italian ATMs, but it certainly is plausible:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/banking-panic-in-italy/

We are nowhere near the end of all of this...

*   *   *

bumbum

It is important (if you want to better understand) that you read a lot of the this thread!  Armstrong's ideas are not easy for many (inc. me) to digest.  iamnotback performs a useful service for all of us in helping to explain Armstrong's ideas, while his two main opponents take their shots (all is fair).  Armstrong treads where few forecasters have before.

[iamnotback]

...while his two main opponents take their shots (all is fair)

Since when did disingenuous become fair. They create extra unpaid work for me and they should know they are not being fair.

They repeat the same disingenuous bullshit, trying to cherry pick statements on a blog out-of-context and without full access to all the computer arrays and reversals. Lately they claim he changes his mind, when in fact his arrays are not 100% deterministic prediction of a specific event at a specific time. Armstrong's computer is providing dynamic guidance to help improve the odds of trading. Point sampling as these disingenuous trolls do, is subject to aliasing error. Do they not even understand the Shannon-Nyquist Sampling theorem.

If the critics want to prepare a detailed record of their trading and the computer arrays they subscribed to, and show a statistically relevant performance, then we could take that as a valid anecdotal sample. Otherwise, they are just blowing aliasing error out their arse in a smear campaign. They might be correct, but until they provide statistically relevant data, then they might as well just be inserting random words into their posts.

If Armstrong doesn't help you reader, then don't read him.

P.S. I am not even focused on nor using Armstrong's short-term guidance. Some of us are just interested in the macro economic perspective he provides. Since I haven't tested his trader level service, I have no idea if it would improve my trading odds. Since I hate day trading, I would never be good at it, even with his computer's guidance.

Again for me the most important information I have obtained from MA has been the gold bearish prediction from the 2011 peak. Sloanf showed some quotes of MA which he claimed showed that MA was conflicted about that call. I know that since I was reading MA in 2012, I was very aware that he was calling for gold to decline significantly. At some point well before it occurred, I became aware of the $1050, $850, and $681 benchmarks. We already hit the first one. Armstrong has hence removed the possibility of the $681 level (see my recent quotes in the Economic Devastation thread). So the $850 level is all that possibly remains on the downside for gold.

The other macro economic information I expect to be very valuable to me, is the prediction that the US dollar and US stocks will be the last fiat man standing with a stampede into them as the periphery of the global economy collapses and exacerbated by the fact the rest of the world owes dollars and has their external unit-of-account in dollars.

I also became aware of the rise in the War Cycle well before 2014, because of Armstrong. I knew Ukraine would be a flashpoint before it happened. I thus expected some sort of war cycle development involving the Middle East. Heck I even read yesterday that Abe in Japan now has enough political support to change the constitution to enable Japan to go back to an aggressive military posture against China. Now the new President of the Philippines Durterte (our former mayor of Davao City), is criticizing the USA (says the USA is creating the terrorism and radicalism) and becoming more close to China in this coming battle of USA+Japan versus China for hegemony in the Pacific.

I also became aware of the scientific breakthrough modeling the sunspot cycle, which insures we are heading into a Maunder Minimum Mini Ice Age. And also the possibility of a global pandemic.

[sidhujag]

bitcoin can easily be a 100x bagger here compared to doubling up on equities although more liquidity available if you extrapolate someone with $100 million in funds can have a far greater opportunity playing bitcoin here than with equities at these prices... liquidity will come as price and awareness rise (happening exponentially). Also bitcoin is closer to ideal money than central bank targeting and thus over time looks better and better to those with market moving money. I say it will take another brexit style event to tap into a percent of these guys and thats all it really needs to get mainstream hyped up again over bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

[tabnloz]

I can definitely see how bond yields go lower in the US, but how low can they go and what are the repercussions for the rest of the world? I would suggest very bad for insurance industry, pensions, corp debt.

We need that to totally break the confidence in the USA after the strong USD also destroys as I mentioned in the prior posts.

This will force the private sector to AAA corporate and stocks to seek yield. Then those will bubble and peak and finally after that USD stampede bubble completes, everything will be burnt to the ground. So we can do the global monetary reset. There will be very little resistance by that time to it, because confidence will be in the abyss. TPTB are doing creative destruction now.

You're operating under the assumption that the US can militarily hold every other nation on earth hostage and prevent them from divesting from the dollar in the middle of the biggest economic crisis ever?  The US can't go to war with every nation at once.  Russia and China are nuclear powers, they don't have to listen.  Other nations will go rogue as well.  It's not possible to maintain USD monopoly through this.

Divesting from the dollar would really upset the apple cart. Not that it isn't coming in time anyway (an orderly move to SDR is likely), but seeing how intertwined the world is financially, a big, disorderly, pronounced move away from the USD would provoke massive reactions. Most developing nations have high corporate dollar denominated debt loads so who knows the ramifications there. Trade deals would be blown apart, tariffs introduced.

The rest of the world is short the dollar and the strong dollar will burn the rest of the world economy to the ground in a dollar liquidity vortex that sucks everything into the dollar, because the more the short bankrupts the rest of the world, the more capital will stampede out of the rest of the world and into the dollar.

The divestment from the dollar will come in a monetary reset agreed to by all the nations. A "Bretton Woods" accord of the G20 perhaps. It will be done with the stroke of a pen.

Interesting reading in the below article how a number of investment grade absolute return bond funds have seen significant outflows, especially the EUR denominated ones.

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/bluebay-absolute-return-bond-fund-hit-by-2-2bn-outflows/a931328

[iamnotback]

bitcoin can easily be a 100x bagger here compared to doubling up on equities although more liquidity available if you extrapolate someone with $100 million in funds can have a far greater opportunity playing bitcoin here than with equities at these prices... liquidity will come as price and awareness rise (happening exponentially). Also bitcoin is closer to ideal money than central bank targeting and thus over time looks better and better to those with market moving money.

You are a delusional tin foil hat with the similar myopia as r0ach.

There isn't a $100 million of liquidity in Bitcoin for even just one investor, not to mention the $trillions of millionaires. (btw, a more controversial opinion of mine, is that Bitcoin is probably going to top out < $10,000. If you want 100X gains, altcoin speculation is the ticket.) The millionaires who want to play in Bitcoin, are building mining farms and mining BTC cheaply, which another reason altcoins can do so well, because they need liquidity so they can invest this mined BTC without dumping it for fiat.

Your periodic infantile comments about Armstrong give me chuckle. The Dunning-Kruger hubris to think you are even a grain of sand in experience level compared to Armstrong a former manager of the former $trillion Japanese postal fund (until the Japanese government overruled his plan to diversify and thus bankrupted the fund after he left).

altcoinUK et al, who find Armstrong's blog posts incongruent with your insights/expectations on various day trading decisions, such as the VIX, I will just remind you that Armstrong is writing blog posts that refer to differing time horizons. Until you are receiving a trader level interpretation from his computer for the time horizon of your specific focus, you are comparing apples and oranges.

[sidhujag]

bitcoin can easily be a 100x bagger here compared to doubling up on equities although more liquidity available if you extrapolate someone with $100 million in funds can have a far greater opportunity playing bitcoin here than with equities at these prices... liquidity will come as price and awareness rise (happening exponentially). Also bitcoin is closer to ideal money than central bank targeting and thus over time looks better and better to those with market moving money.

You are a delusional tin foil hat with the similar myopia as r0ach.

There isn't a $100 million of liquidity in Bitcoin for even just one investor, not to mention the $trillions of millionaires. (btw, a more controversial opinion of mine, is that Bitcoin is probably going to top out < $10,000. If you want 100X gains, altcoin speculation is the ticket.) The millionaires who want to play in Bitcoin, are building mining farms and mining BTC cheaply, which another reason altcoins can do so well, because they need liquidity so they can invest this mined BTC without dumping it for fiat.

Your periodic infantile comments about Armstrong give me chuckle. The Dunning-Kruger hubris to think you are even a grain of sand in experience level compared to Armstrong a former manager of $trillion Japanese postal fund.

altcoinUK et al, who find Armstrong's blog posts incongruent with your insights/expectations on various day trading decisions, such as the VIX, I will just remind you that Armstrong is writing blog posts that refer to differing time horizons. Until you are receiving a trader level interpretation from his computer for the time horizon of your specific focus, you are comparing apples and oranges.

Read my posts again you didnt understand that im saying the same thing about longterm re armstrong

I didnt say you would buy $100m worth of btc here did I? Again read my post and try to comprehend what Im saying before you spew off.

[OROBTC]

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iamnotback

There you go, you just stated better than I ever had Armstrong's real value to me: his macroeconomic analysis.

I do not day-trade either, having taken a shot at trading in the 1980s, I then understood that I did not have the aptitude (nor even attitude) to "trade".

Nor do I really care much about his short-term calls, since I do not trade, I do not give a crap.  Nor do I have any interest in ponying up money for his trading services.

Armstrong is a guy who has economic history nailed, his insights are spot-on.  We will see what his Socrates system shows us.  Maybe something great & useful, maybe not.

*   *   *

Re your opponents sloanf and r0ach, recall that you do not have to respond to them, if it's all a waste of your time (etc.).  Also, should you decide to continue taking them on (which I would encourage), their critiques of Armstrong will only help you sharpen your own analyses.  Not that that helps your Bottom Line or anything...

[sloanf]

...

iamnotback

There you go, you just stated better than I ever had Armstrong's real value to me: his macroeconomic analysis.

I do not day-trade either, having taken a shot at trading in the 1980s, I then understood that I did not have the aptitude (nor even attitude) to "trade".

Nor do I really care much about his short-term calls, since I do not trade, I do not give a crap.  Nor do I have any interest in ponying up money for his trading services.

Armstrong is a guy who has economic history nailed, his insights are spot-on.  We will see what his Socrates system shows us.  Maybe something great & useful, maybe not.

*   *   *

Re your opponents sloanf and r0ach, recall that you do not have to respond to them, if it's all a waste of your time (etc.).  Also, should you decide to continue taking them on (which I would encourage), their critiques of Armstrong will only help you sharpen your own analyses.  Not that that helps your Bottom Line or anything...

If anybody wants to say anything, they will do so when they see a need, ok? In the meantime, don't be such a smart-ass, will you? You don't bring anything useful here, do you? And your yet another provocative attempt to incite people against one another is not going to work.

[iamnotback]

I went and backtested Armstrong's recent talks over the last few months.  Someone asked him on camera around March what he thought metals were going to do in the near future and if he was bullish.  He said they weren't going to do much and then the price exploded upwards shortly after.  Other people have noticed after Brexit that metals (and Bitcoin) benefited more over the US dollar, so this whole conspiracy that the world is going to all-in on the dollar during financial collapse is baseless IMO. 

When a severe lack of trust forms over the competency and solvency of the EU governance, NOBODY is saying to themselves "hey, maybe I should invest in the American government run by the same banks and people." 

A deadcat bounce would not be contrary to his expectation of an eventual $850 bottom. Let's wait and see what happens.

...which confirms our computer models, albeit a tad late.

[sidhujag]

I'm planning on getting in some long term positions in the stock market, should I wait for the pullback or start nibbling?

its confused right now better wait

[bumbum]

Would it be wise to stay out of debt now before this inevitable monetary reset happens?

[Lateralus]

I'm planning on getting in some long term positions in the stock market, should I wait for the pullback or start nibbling?

Should see some volatility this week. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/DJFOR-W-7-16-2016.jpg

[marcus_of_augustus]

Would it be wise to stay out of debt now before this inevitable monetary reset happens?

Depends if your particular debt gets 'reset' or not ... take out huge mortgages and credit card debts to buy bitcoin and gold and go AWOL for the reset?

[sidhujag]

Would it be wise to stay out of debt now before this inevitable monetary reset happens?

Depends if your particular debt gets 'reset' or not ... take out huge mortgages and credit card debts to buy bitcoin and gold and go AWOL for the reset?

probably not worth it imo because as the reset gets near it will get priced into safe havens like bitcoin and thus the risk reward at that point diminishes, if you take it out now then you risk the chance of reprucssions under the current system because you do not know how long before it actually happens. Look at it this way, you have 1 btc now and it costs you say a quarter of your paycheck and 10 years later it happens, you still have your house and car to drive around for 10 years without lenders coming for them and as the event gets near, that 1 btc will cost you say 100x your paycheck. For those that aren't part of bitcoin today it might make sense.

[trollercoaster]

Would it be wise to stay out of debt now before this inevitable monetary reset happens?

Yes it would be wise, I have personally been down the free man route being young and dumb, and found myself almost bankrupt.

The rule of law is also collapsing, so I highly advise you to stay out of debt and not defaulting or you may find your self bankrupted by the courts.

[iamnotback]

What you guys think about this?

Re: after 2013 did you foresee the second coming of alts?

so i've been reading up about things before my time, mainly the alt madness that went along with the bitcoin madness in late 2013.

considering how much money was lost when they all crashed, did you think that was it for alts or did you expect more?

The latter, although it was essentially a gut felling. Why: I concluded that blockchain technology had attained critical mass, which meant that Bitcoin and the other would come back.

I had the same appraisal. I did expect a giant exhale (even back at $700 - $1000 on the way down), which we did get down to $150 for Bitcoin. (I expected it to potentially bottom lower perhaps $50)

Right now I expect something really big to happen in CC soon (well we already had Ethereum this year so I expect more like that and much bigger). Perhaps within the next 6 months to a year. Not just any specific project in my mind as a possibility, but I mean I think we have reached critical mass of ideas and now we are just waiting for some project(s) to put it all together.

We also have a potential collapse of the global economy 2017 - 2020, so this could perhaps cause some short-term selloff (but this isn't certain also), but I don't think anything will stop the coming juggernaut of blockchains.

You want to be getting yourself aligned in CC/blockchains to become a $multi-millionaire if you aren't already.

And if you are already a millionaire and don't have a significant postion in CC/blockchains, then you need to start dollar cost averaging in asap.

Edit: some others (e.g. smooth at least in past and to some extent also myself) would have argued that it was very unclear if CC/blockchains could become anything more than an experiment. However, I think I see now that it is impossible that CC/blockchains doesn't disrupt the existing systems, regardless of whether we don't attain the nirvana of perfect decentralization and trustless attributes. Because at the worst, CC/blockchains enables many more degrees-of-freedom in how to attack issues of governance, payments, finance, capital formation, etc.. It is just blowing my mind! Great time to be involved (sucks though to be ill and not be able to go full blast).

[criptix]

What you guys think about this?

Re: after 2013 did you foresee the second coming of alts?

so i've been reading up about things before my time, mainly the alt madness that went along with the bitcoin madness in late 2013.

considering how much money was lost when they all crashed, did you think that was it for alts or did you expect more?

The latter, although it was essentially a gut felling. Why: I concluded that blockchain technology had attained critical mass, which meant that Bitcoin and the other would come back.

I had the same appraisal. I did expect a giant exhale (even back at $700 - $1000 on the way down), which we did get down to $150 for Bitcoin. (I expected it to potentially bottom lower perhaps $50)

Right now I expect something really big to happen in CC soon (well we already had Ethereum this year so I expect more like that and much bigger). Perhaps within the next 6 months to a year. Not just any specific project in my mind as a possibility, but I mean I think we have reached critical mass of ideas and now we are just waiting for some project(s) to put it all together.

We also have a potential collapse of the global economy 2017 - 2020, so this could perhaps cause some short-term selloff (but this isn't certain also), but I don't think anything will stop the coming juggernaut of blockchains.

You want to be getting yourself aligned in CC/blockchains to become a $multi-millionaire if you aren't already.

And if you are already a millionaire and don't have a significant postion in CC/blockchains, then you need to start dollar cost averaging in asap.

Edit: some others (e.g. smooth at least in past and to some extent also myself) would have argued that it was very unclear if CC/blockchains could become anything more than an experiment. However, I think I see now that it is impossible that CC/blockchains doesn't disrupt the existing systems, regardless of whether we don't attain the nirvana of perfect decentralization and trustless attributes. Because at the worst, CC/blockchains enables many more degrees-of-freedom in how to attack issues of governance, payments, finance, capital formation, etc.. It is just blowing my mind! Great time to be involved (sucks though to be ill and not be able to go full blast).

You done good leaving the dark side of the force

Blockchain tech is the inevitable future.

[sidhujag]

What you guys think about this?

Re: after 2013 did you foresee the second coming of alts?

so i've been reading up about things before my time, mainly the alt madness that went along with the bitcoin madness in late 2013.

considering how much money was lost when they all crashed, did you think that was it for alts or did you expect more?

The latter, although it was essentially a gut felling. Why: I concluded that blockchain technology had attained critical mass, which meant that Bitcoin and the other would come back.

I had the same appraisal. I did expect a giant exhale (even back at $700 - $1000 on the way down), which we did get down to $150 for Bitcoin. (I expected it to potentially bottom lower perhaps $50)

Right now I expect something really big to happen in CC soon (well we already had Ethereum this year so I expect more like that and much bigger). Perhaps within the next 6 months to a year. Not just any specific project in my mind as a possibility, but I mean I think we have reached critical mass of ideas and now we are just waiting for some project(s) to put it all together.

We also have a potential collapse of the global economy 2017 - 2020, so this could perhaps cause some short-term selloff (but this isn't certain also), but I don't think anything will stop the coming juggernaut of blockchains.

You want to be getting yourself aligned in CC/blockchains to become a $multi-millionaire if you aren't already.

And if you are already a millionaire and don't have a significant postion in CC/blockchains, then you need to start dollar cost averaging in asap.

Edit: some others (e.g. smooth at least in past and to some extent also myself) would have argued that it was very unclear if CC/blockchains could become anything more than an experiment. However, I think I see now that it is impossible that CC/blockchains doesn't disrupt the existing systems, regardless of whether we don't attain the nirvana of perfect decentralization and trustless attributes. Because at the worst, CC/blockchains enables many more degrees-of-freedom in how to attack issues of governance, payments, finance, capital formation, etc.. It is just blowing my mind! Great time to be involved (sucks though to be ill and not be able to go full blast).

You're finally seeing the light.

I think the best bet is Ether right now to try to achieve your goal of being aligned because btc has already had its day... its going to take a bit longer to achieve mass adoption for bitcoin to spike to a new log price level. To me ether represents "alts".. my own alt Sys seems to be moving in-line correlated with Eth aswell as eth serves as a guideline for alt appetite (risk on/risk off bitcoin). Once governance is improved by creating distributed mechanisms for achieving consensus through code we should see eth == btc equivalence if it ever comes to it... and that's not to say btc will fall its just a 1a/1b scenario. Any hint at the new technology will send it soaring because its whats kept it back these last few weeks we see the appetite for the market to get past it and try to see if ether can flourish (usually big things come when smart engineers are pressed up against the wall). The hack will end up being a blessing in disguise imo if they play it right.

[OROBTC]

...

iamnotback

As maybe the most "layman" of the group, my thinking would be that Bitcoin has to have more success among the unwashed masses first.  There are not all that many people in the Crypto Universe, and most of the action is in BTC now.  I think the Crypto Universe has to get bigger first.

But, should the C.U. get bigger, then a good alternative to BTC might be able to bust down the doors.  The Alt would have to be running more silent and more deep than BTC, as well as be easy to use (no harder than BTC now). 

An Alt would need a fairly big pond (bigger than the pond is now), and would have to demonstrate marked superiority to Bitcoin to be the winner. 

Could happen though, I am disheartened by the squabbling among the BTC developers.