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OROBTC (OP)
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February 09, 2017, 03:48:37 AM
Last edit: February 09, 2017, 03:58:53 AM by OROBTC |
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That was a pair of interesting articles, iamnotback, thanks for posting them. Highly recommended reading.
A go slow policy, with much discussion, with Russia is overdue. I agree w/ Armstrong: Rex Tillerson looks to be an inspired choice to be Secretary of State.
There is a lot of work to do re stabilizing the world economy. I don't know the way forward. I hope Trump and his team know better..., certainly better we hope than Obama's team.
EDIT: The Politico article was interesting too. Taleb and "Mencius Moldbug" are featured. I let FOFOA know re the latter.
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r0ach
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February 10, 2017, 08:16:21 AM
Last edit: February 10, 2017, 09:39:31 AM by r0ach |
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There is a lot of work to do re stabilizing the world economy. I don't know the way forward.
The way forward is to not attempt to stabilize it and let all the ponzis implode because nobody is going to open a business or invest in anything at the top of peak scam, and then we can have some type of sound money like gold and silver afterwards. |
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tabnloz
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February 10, 2017, 08:27:05 AM |
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There is a lot of work to do re stabilizing the world economy. I don't know the way forward.
The way forward is to not attempt to stabilize it and let all the ponzis implode because nobody is going to open a business or invest in anything at the top of peak scam, and then we can some type of sound money like gold and silver afterwards. But of course that will never happen. The global elite will never go down without a fight. For governments it becomes about collecting taxes using whichever means possible in order to service their debts Whether you ascribe them evil intentions or think they are just trapped by dogma, they believe they know the cure to our ills. The beatings will obviously continue. |
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r0ach
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February 12, 2017, 07:51:21 AM
Last edit: February 12, 2017, 08:32:18 AM by r0ach |
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Oh please, we all know Armstrong is full of shit. Seconds after he said gold is going under $1000 it skyrockets then he makes up some lie afterwards instead of admitting he was wrong. He also pretends Jewish fiat paper makes up the base of Exter's pyrmaid. Most debts being denominated in USD doesn't mean people are short the dollar, it just means those debts are a toxic asset and nobody is going to pay them. The second the system actually experiences defaults that would trigger deflation, you don't actually get deflation, you get bank holidays from everything being insolvent. Once there are bank holidays, the system is for all intents and purposes over. All digital fiat is essentially value-less, while physical paper may be worth a premium for a short time span, but who do you actually know that keeps enormous amounts of physical paper around while taking the risk the govt decrees $50, $100, or even $20 bills worthless like they did in India? The Trump and Mnuchin agenda is also clearly to inflate the system and weaken the dollar. If that agenda fails or not is a different story, but the act of creating more fiat or devaluing the dollar is not "bearish" on metals or deflationary by any means. The fact that Armstrong did NOT adjust any of his predictions at all depending on who won the 2016 election is another giveaway to the fact he doesn't really know what he's talking about. At any given time, all debt based fiat systems are teetering on the brink of either deflationary collapse or hyperinflation. Neither of those binary outcomes are predictable by ANYONE except the person centrally administering the system = all Armstrong data is useless because he can't predict which one of those outcomes will occur. It's entirely possible we could have a deflationary collapse with hyperinflation after as a response, or we could just go straight into Venezuela-style inflation from the start with no deflation at all. As for which option is better or more "humane" if a ruler were to pick one, the system grinds to a halt in deflationary collapse, which screws everyone no matter rich or poor. In inflation at least the doors to the buildings are still open. |
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OROBTC (OP)
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February 12, 2017, 05:49:56 PM |
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I have to grant r0ach a point re Armstrong NOT changing his predictions in response to new data (Trump winning). My general understanding of how to analyze events is to update models and predictions as new facts come in.
* * *
"Everyone wants a weaker dollar."
-- a prominent blogger
What that means, and how likely real action will be taken is a key question. In the end, a weaker dollar is what we will get. It may get stronger for a while as money flees the weaker currencies, but a weaker dollar is the end-game.
The working scenario that I follow (along with a small group of active investors I associate with) is that we will likely get some kind of unpleasant deflation followed by a hyperinflation. This has happened so many times in history that it seems to be a tool for .govs. A hard deflationary event is hated by banks and other powerful types, so once it hits, .gov will bail-out its buddies (and make themselves temporarily popular with its citizens) by printing.
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SillyBilly
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February 12, 2017, 09:25:04 PM |
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Each false rally in the Dow Jones in the Great Depression started lower than the last. Not the case with gold this time At least we were spared a history lesson on the Romans with that MA article, makes for a change. I don't know which direction gold is going but I'd back a coin flip to be as accurate as MA. Thankfully I didn't go with his sub $1000/850 prediction last year so made a fair bit before selling out (too early mind), call it enough times though and he'll get it eventually. He has it on record so that is all that matters. Also has the $10,000 on record too. And a whole load of other numbers in between. With the ability to shift his dates and the ifs, buts and maybes, he has it all covered. Ignore the duff predictions. We're still waiting for this sovereign debt crisis blow up too (from 2015). Another date shifter. Yawn. Call a recession or debt crisis repeatedly you'll eventually be right.
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tabnloz
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February 13, 2017, 11:05:33 AM |
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I have to grant r0ach a point re Armstrong NOT changing his predictions in response to new data (Trump winning). My general understanding of how to analyze events is to update models and predictions as new facts come in.
* * *
"Everyone wants a weaker dollar."
-- a prominent blogger
What that means, and how likely real action will be taken is a key question. In the end, a weaker dollar is what we will get. It may get stronger for a while as money flees the weaker currencies, but a weaker dollar is the end-game.
The working scenario that I follow (along with a small group of active investors I associate with) is that we will likely get some kind of unpleasant deflation followed by a hyperinflation. This has happened so many times in history that it seems to be a tool for .govs. A hard deflationary event is hated by banks and other powerful types, so once it hits, .gov will bail-out its buddies (and make themselves temporarily popular with its citizens) by printing.
I don't know but I'm sure the next crisis will trump the last two combined. How will the elites play it? I'll say shock doctrine and implement cash bans, capital controls to 'save' the system. SDR's on their way. I dont think we'll go back to a gold standard unless it's post WW3. No to say gold doesnt play a role, it does. Why else would governments the world over continue to buy & store it? I often wonder how relevant the Japanese experience is in this case. They have muddled through for decades with printing, hopium and a compliant population. The West has done one decade. Wonder how long Western elites can keep up the charade? seeing as though there is not so subtle collusion between central banks, could be a while, at least until a black swan hits. Wouldn't it be funny if 8.6 years on from Lehmann we get another crisis? That would make it some time in May. |
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iamnotback
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February 15, 2017, 01:32:32 AM
Last edit: February 15, 2017, 03:55:19 AM by iamnotback |
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...It's hard to say how a BAD FUTURE would come down upon us. Whether hard & fast or Japan-like slow & grinding. Or some combination or something else.
...All kinds of bad shit lookin' to happen.......
Widespread culling and eugenics coming (although with a Maunder Minimum Mini Ice Age, pandemics, and in general chaos and megadeath) coming: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg17854856#msg17854856And also... Why Stage #5 will be so destructive: Moreover, Gen. Flynn has many enemies throughout the intelligence and defense community. The same is true, of course, of Donald Trump; recall that just a few weeks ago, Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer warned Trump that he was being “really dumb” to criticize the intelligence community because “they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.”The universal surveillance is going to be massive corruption that takes the world down into the depths of chaos. |
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tabnloz
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February 15, 2017, 03:03:38 AM |
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Interesting climate article http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4192182/World-leaders-duped-manipulated-global-warming-data.htmlThis is the kind of thing that doesn't receive enough attention. It should be investigated further and be an open discussion point; right now, anyone that attempts to debate climate change, even on the grounds cited here (that the modelling for this particluar set was flawed but published as fact for publicity) is shouted down because the science is supposedly settled. My own position has changed significantly. I try to be open to listening to different sources, although I will say that like many people, I do not have the faintest clue how to find or interpret most of the scientific data related to this. However, I do love history and have been fascinated by parts of our history that seemed based on assumptions rather than solid proof. After watching An Inconvenient Truth many years ago it made sense - pollution is bad and a rational extension is that this could be harming our environment. But then as I read up on unrelated topics I discovered: that temperatures has twice rapidly spiked higher than the small increases of last century (currently unexplained - see Younger Dryas period) sea levels rapidly, not incrementally, increased around 400ft 10,000yrs ago (12,800 BP) this sea level rise coincides with something called Meltwater Pulse 1b (unexplained by *conventional*, uniformitarian academia) carbon in the atmosphere is not something to be feared, it is essential, has been higher in millenia gone by, and is of course, crucial for plant life. my current thinking aligns with the observation that the earth is part of many different cyclical events, from The Great Year to a single day, and our climate is one cycle of many that is often brutally re-arranged by forces we can only guess at. I think man made change is part of it but I do not know how much I do not know. I fear that our science does not look back far enough in history and is part of groupthink and possibly shock doctrine agendas ( I would say there are far more things to worry about than a foot sea level rise or a degree rise in global temps). How about we figure out why temps went up 10 degrees in a year or two and sea levels rose 400ft almost overnight? That's a real frightening mystery (and interesting). |
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tabnloz
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February 15, 2017, 04:44:36 AM |
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I've done some reading of those threads and links and I find it all very interesting. I do find it hard to validate though or be sure of an interpretation. But if its part of the cycle of the sun, solar energy or shifting of the magnetic poles, then so be it. Pretty sure we can't change it by reducing carbon. I suppose I am more interested in the times when there has been rapid climate changes, and why. From a Bayesian analysis I think there are some interesting theories that hold weight. eg - there was some kind of event as we came out of our last glacial maximum (which was 20k BP, so at around 13k bp) that sent us back into an ice age almost overnight. Indications of this include a sea level rise, meltwater pulse 1b, eradication of over 70 species of megafauna (Nth America & Europe) & the Clovis culture, discovery of a 50mil sq m radius of the 'black mat' boundary ['Black mat' is a mix of nano diamonds, microspherules of carbon + more that only fuse together at extreme temperatures & velocities - only other example is found at KT layer (65mil yrs).] Then there is the geology. Check out the NW US landscape. Then think how such an event would be communicated by survivors? The history of the emergence of religion and especially mythology. |
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r0ach
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February 15, 2017, 01:47:19 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2017, 02:53:17 PM by r0ach |
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sea levels rapidly, not incrementally, increased around 400ft 10,000yrs ago (12,800 BP)
this sea level rise coincides with something called Meltwater Pulse 1b (unexplained by *conventional*, uniformitarian academia)
How about we figure out why temps went up 10 degrees in a year or two and sea levels rose 400ft almost overnight? That's a real frightening mystery (and interesting).
There's some guy named Graham Hancock who seems to of made a career talking about this; that the written record of human history only goes back 5000 years and around 13,000 years ago the mythical flood talked about in things like the bible and other mythology actually did take place. I think his hypothesis is that some type of projectile like a comet hit one of the poles and released a bunch of water somehow, but it seems like any type of object large enough to do that would have also extincted all life in the process. Perhaps someone else can chime in on the viability of a comet melting huge amounts of ice but not exterminating all life at the same time? I would imagine some type of eruption/activity from the sun could have caused the ice to melt as well. |
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sidhujag
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February 15, 2017, 05:10:12 PM |
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Yea im getting bullish gold just because these false prophets are bearish and retailers seem to stick on them like flies on shit |
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r0ach
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February 16, 2017, 12:17:09 AM |
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Yea im getting bullish gold just because these false prophets are bearish and retailers seem to stick on them like flies on shit
I just skimmed over some of Martin Shillstrong's past posts and noticed 90% of the crap he types is propaganda claiming it's impossible to make money by buying metals. He even used the following nonsensical quote to try and claim it's not possible for govt printing to get out of control: " The hyperinflation scenario is government merely goes willy-nilly into the light printing money. We have a debt market. Government is restrained by that and cannot simply print into oblivion and yet still sell the debt." HAHAHAHA He claims govt can't monetize the debt. This guy is 100% without a doubt a paid shill. It's not possible for anyone to exist that claims to have studied markets and type such things without being a shill. Yes, they will try to raise taxes to make up for it when no foreign countries will purchase the debt, but you can't draw blood from a stone. They will print up the leftover difference (which will be a lot). |
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