Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

The TA isn't that good imo but the message is clear.

As I see it we have some good indicators
1. Very long bear period that must end someday.
2. 1w log chart has an EMA that clearly gives a bull signal and has held for >1 week.
3. Optimism in the media and forums
4. >5 year Existance of the currency
5. Halving coming
6. More infrastructure and investors
Etc.

Buy your bitcoins while they are cheap!!!!!

[Afrikoin]

Bitcoin has ZERO fundimental reason to not go down - in fact, the current news is mostly NEGATIVE indicating a very high probability it WILL go down over the next few months.

 Market analysis only works on MATURE markets, Bitcoin is too small and too immature for it to have any real meaning.


 Note that the recent surge was due to ONE NEWS EVENT in China, per all indications - the announcement by BTCC (and other Chinese markets) that they were going to start taking Fiat Currency payments directly again.


 We're still dealing with the aftereffects of THAT one big announcement and the instability it introduced to the overall Botcoin market.

[Afrikoin]

Normally I pay most attention to longer timescales but this fork on the 4 hour chart has me interested at the moment.

Looks like bitcoin is failing to get above resistance might take a dip down towards the area marked with a circle



Nice bullish fork to follow though.

[Afrikoin]

In terms of predicting price or noticing cycles, take a look at this image highlighting what I would say are correlating events in the cycles as I described them:

Yes! Some of those areas look similar, but a few to note are:
(D) In 2011, D was already making higher highs (HH's) above the B. In Elliott wave, that was a subwave of the whole rise to $31.9099. In this case, it was a 3. In 2013, it was still part of the correction, or in the best supporting argument, a subwave of a subwave, 1 of 5. Visually, it makes no HH, so it really doesn't look similar at all.

Next, compare price of everything after the $1200 peak with the 2011/12 data you have there. Your corresponding points hit the bottom and began rising in the latter. In 2014, it continued down. This tells me that we are in a much larger cycle here that isn't really comparable to the 2010-2012 data you have without first stretching that data about 4x. I would argue that your F, G and H are more appropriately set up like this


Where F and G were all of 2014 and we are still somewhere in the H. Or at best, in the I. There is also the possibility that F was the entirety of 2014 and we are in G since January this year. I don't really have an opinion on which is more likely.

RyNinDaCleM, you are trully smart! respect.

I agree with you, regarding the length of time taking longer or in other words, a larger cycle.

When i was reading OPs idea, the first thing i thought was he was right about human behaviour in herds as predictable, but also thought he was wrong in assuming it would repeat itself in the same number of days cycles. That i find, cannot happen in a case where there is growth. Growth in nature is not linear or proportional.

For example, think about children growing up, they grow at different paces at each stage of their life. Not that any growth is superior to another, but it does not take the same amount of time because at each growth level, complexity varies.

In the case of bitcoin, bitcoin today is not bitcoin of yester years - so, while growth might occur in a similar fashion, I would expect number of days to vary eg X4 or xY.

Which is why, i agree with RyNinDaCleM here when he redraws the labels to show the cycles are taking longer - similar, but longer days.

*please excuse typos. Cant be bothered

[Afrikoin]

it seems like we are back in rally mode, daily sma30 switched to increasing. correction could not bring us below sma10.
new weekly candle starts very healthy. 4hour candles with upside potential, old 385 target looks like support now.

420 is my new target within this weeks or already within next days.


/e
should breaking out up here

[Afrikoin]

SEC Approves Overstock.com S-3 Filing to Issue Shares Using Bitcoin Blockchain

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/sec-approves-overstock-com-s-filing-to-issue-shares-using-bitcoin-blockchain-1449539558

[Hunyadi]

SEC Approves Overstock.com S-3 Filing to Issue Shares Using Bitcoin Blockchain

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/sec-approves-overstock-com-s-filing-to-issue-shares-using-bitcoin-blockchain-1449539558

[afbitcoins]

Hello nights watch.

Heres an updated look my bullish fork which was posted previously.



What we can see is price did not fall to the bottom of the fork which was my target but instead managed to break up to head upwards to the next trendline of the fork. Resistance at $400 matches where this next trendline lies.

Bitcoin appears very bullish, even staying below this line the trend is up, however we could easily see if break up again and charge towards next resistance line at $460.

It looks very much like bitcoin is bullish again.

[Afrikoin]

Hello nights watch.

Heres an updated look my bullish fork which was posted previously.



What we can see is price did not fall to the bottom of the fork which was my target but instead managed to break up to head upwards to the next trendline of the fork. Resistance at $400 matches where this next trendline lies.

Bitcoin appears very bullish, even staying below this line the trend is up, however we could easily see if break up again and charge towards next resistance line at $460.

It looks very much like bitcoin is bullish again.

thanks!

Was going to ask you for an updated chart of the same, you read my mind.

Now, about your chart, looks like me could make a drop to $ 360. I could be wrong

[afbitcoins]

Hello nights watch.

Heres an updated look my bullish fork which was posted previously.

/snip

What we can see is price did not fall to the bottom of the fork which was my target but instead managed to break up to head upwards to the next trendline of the fork. Resistance at $400 matches where this next trendline lies.

Bitcoin appears very bullish, even staying below this line the trend is up, however we could easily see if break up again and charge towards next resistance line at $460.

It looks very much like bitcoin is bullish again.

thanks!

Was going to ask you for an updated chart of the same, you read my mind.

Now, about your chart, looks like me could make a drop to $ 360. I could be wrong

Yes it could do that without invalidating the bullish trend, main thing I'm looking for is to see support and resistance where the lines are. Have a feeling its more likely to go up than down but that might just be my personal bias coming through.

[Afrikoin]

Hello nights watch.

Heres an updated look my bullish fork which was posted previously.

/snip

What we can see is price did not fall to the bottom of the fork which was my target but instead managed to break up to head upwards to the next trendline of the fork. Resistance at $400 matches where this next trendline lies.

Bitcoin appears very bullish, even staying below this line the trend is up, however we could easily see if break up again and charge towards next resistance line at $460.

It looks very much like bitcoin is bullish again.

thanks!

Was going to ask you for an updated chart of the same, you read my mind.

Now, about your chart, looks like me could make a drop to $ 360. I could be wrong

Yes it could do that without invalidating the bullish trend, main thing I'm looking for is to see support and resistance where the lines are. Have a feeling its more likely to go up than down but that might just be my personal bias coming through.

you were right after all! Lets see how far up this goes

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

We are at critical crossroads. Seems like two striking possibilities here in this excellent local EW form.

1-2 i-ii or abc. The one two chance begins with a primary wave extension, nothing wrong with this count but it is fragile, becoming invalid with a solid break under 2500. abc only just meets the B wave retrace level of a flat. This would take us lower to a limited downside. The bigger picture is Bullish in either case.

I am thinking along the same lines, but with a bias towards the lower one (obviously, for a bear ).
Expecting the first correction about 6 hours from this post, of course if the small triangle breaks down.

[Afrikoin]

Watching, if you don't mind.

welcome





/edit possible long term patterns




giant triangle vs consolidation triangle vs channel vs increased momentum within channel

[Afrikoin]

Austin Hill Of Blockstream: A lot of the Discussions About Private Chains Are Shallow

http://coinjournal.net/interview-with-austin-hill-blockstream/#

[suda123]

Austin Hill Of Blockstream: A lot of the Discussions About Private Chains Are Shallow

http://coinjournal.net/interview-with-austin-hill-blockstream/#

Afrikoin what happens if the fed raises interest rates?

[Afrikoin]

Bots down and market put to sleep! We know it now and the only plausible hypothesis is that those bots are from the exchange. Shall we be worried about the stability of this price in the weeks to come? hell, yes!

Bots at work , again!

I'm pretty sure that was legitimate volume since the price moved almost 15% in 2 hours. The motive of which seems to be stop hunting or an attempt at closing back inside BB's. I watched it unfold and it was clearly a concerted effort to trigger a bit of panic. 

[RoadTrain]

Thought it could be interesting, a couple pieces of proof connecting BTC price and China capital flows. The scales of these graphs are tuned up a bit to look more convincing, but anyway, you can clearly notice the coincidental rise in BTC prices just as CNY is tumbling (past 6.50 already)


Bitcoin Breaks Out Higher After China Announces Crackdown On UnionPay POS Devices

Still not clear whether it's correlation or causation.

[Tzupy]

There's a triangle to close in a few hours and a bit of a battle between bears and bulls on OKCoin. IMO the outcome is going to have a long term influence.

[Afrikoin]

Update

Bitstamp with 4hour candles



The price didn't drop to bottom of fork as per my last update, instead breaking upwards through some levels of resistance. However this slope looks valid. Bitcoin more primed than I thought.

In case anyone is interested in how the fork is defined heres a zoomed out view using 1 day candles.



I'm still wondering if there will be a bear phase retesting bottom of the channel mentioned in my Opening Post. But $320 looks like might be solid as a floor

Anyway I consider that my idea of bitcoin being primed for lift off looks valid. In this thread I will continue to test that idea.