Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

Thought it could be interesting, a couple pieces of proof connecting BTC price and China capital flows. The scales of these graphs are tuned up a bit to look more convincing, but anyway, you can clearly notice the coincidental rise in BTC prices just as CNY is tumbling (past 6.50 already)
[img]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/12/20151208_btc1.jpg

Bitcoin Breaks Out Higher After China Announces Crackdown On UnionPay POS Devices

Still not clear whether it's correlation or causation.

Super interesting!

Trouble with BTC, everyone is always comparing BTC charts to some other charts. Ive seen gold vs BTC, S& P vs BTC, Yuan vs BTC etc vs BTC lol!

Really, we will know after the fact for sure

Thanks for sharing

[1714725043]

1714725043

[Afrikoin]

There's a triangle to close in a few hours and a bit of a battle between bears and bulls on OKCoin. IMO the outcome is going to have a long term influence.

drum roll. . .

also very interested to know if this IS IT! ie THE bull run

Been watching to see if we get another impulse after correcting down to $ 300

I'll be honest, Im on the fence on this one. Not sure which way it will tip, but, very eager to know what to expect next 6 months

[Afrikoin]

Hodl or trade with caution



"Bitcoin is nearing a level of potential horizontal resistance. Looking at the rhythm of other peaks and dips I can imagine its time for a bit of a dip. This is just my suspicions not really ‘analysis’. The dip will look a bit like a dead cat bounce from the recent mini bubble up to $500.

Volume seems lower at the moment maybe signifying a bit of wariness. If this does correct down to the bottom of the bull channel that will be quite a large drop somewhere near $350 I’d estimate.

Safest bet is to hodl if you are already in. Otherwise maybe consider selling (or shorting) if it appears to bounce down from that horizontal line. Word of caution when bitcoin is in full on bull mode sometimes the corrections are flat but I’m not sure we are there yet.

If bitcoin pushes through that line of horizontal resistance instead of correcting down then we may quickly push up towards $600 just falling a little short as panic buying sets in. This scenario is also possible but in my view maybe a bit less likely."

https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2015/12/11/hodl-or-trade-with-caution/

[Afrikoin]

ENTP here

Vladimir "I also noticed that there is disproportionally high numbers of INTP's and ENTP's among bitcoin early and not so early adopters as compared to general population (but there is no credible research known on this)."

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin appears very bullish, even staying below this line the trend is up, however we could easily see if break up again and charge towards next resistance line at $460.

It looks very much like bitcoin is bullish again.

I called it right on this thread and wrong on my blog later on    

I'm guessing there'll now be a period of consolidation but to me the bull trend seems pretty clear on longer timescales.

edit. btw thanks for your last comment on my thread Afrikoin

[Tzupy]

1h PSAR, that flipped to bearish with the large dump, now flipped to bullish, only on Chinese exchanges for now, and the triangle appears to break up.

[koryu]

I think the big red 4h candle could form a new channel, this would be a very bullish scenario. But it also seems risky to trade now, those who bought the dip in the 2700cny area did pretty good, unfortunately I missed that one and have some fiat looking to buy back in.

hope you guys are fine, prolly lot of margin trades squeezed lately.

[Tzupy]

2h PSAR flipped to bullish on Chinese exchanges.

[Afrikoin]

From Adam's BitMovements

Adjusting the Trajectory to the Moon! ┗(°0°)┛



Adam's prediction: <395  >500 in 2016
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 360 - 400


Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=796276.20

[Afrikoin]

This from months ago



Yet, many still scoff at EW lol!

[Afrikoin]

Must listen!

Trace Mayer Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast

Bitcoin core developer Jeff Garzik discusses the developer community

http://www.bitcoin.kn/2015/12/bitcoin-core-developer-jeff-garzik-discusses-the-developer-community/

[Tzupy]

2h PSAR flipped to bullish on Chinese exchanges.

And despite a growing bid side on Chinese exchanges, too little up after this. Price action appears to define a rising wedge, which is close to completion.

[keystroke]

ENTP here

Vladimir "I also noticed that there is disproportionally high numbers of INTP's and ENTP's among bitcoin early and not so early adopters as compared to general population (but there is no credible research known on this)."

INTP here, early adopter. So sad Vladimir is gone... he did start the club after all.

[suda123]

Thought it could be interesting, a couple pieces of proof connecting BTC price and China capital flows. The scales of these graphs are tuned up a bit to look more convincing, but anyway, you can clearly notice the coincidental rise in BTC prices just as CNY is tumbling (past 6.50 already)
[img]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/12/20151208_btc1.jpg

Bitcoin Breaks Out Higher After China Announces Crackdown On UnionPay POS Devices

Still not clear whether it's correlation or causation.

Super interesting!

Trouble with BTC, everyone is always comparing BTC charts to some other charts. Ive seen gold vs BTC, S& P vs BTC, Yuan vs BTC etc vs BTC lol!

Really, we will know after the fact for sure

Thanks for sharing

What's the corrlilation with stocks dropping and bitcoin going up

[talks_cheep]

Thought it could be interesting, a couple pieces of proof connecting BTC price and China capital flows. The scales of these graphs are tuned up a bit to look more convincing, but anyway, you can clearly notice the coincidental rise in BTC prices just as CNY is tumbling (past 6.50 already)
[img]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/12/20151208_btc1.jpg

Bitcoin Breaks Out Higher After China Announces Crackdown On UnionPay POS Devices

Still not clear whether it's correlation or causation.

Super interesting!

Trouble with BTC, everyone is always comparing BTC charts to some other charts. Ive seen gold vs BTC, S& P vs BTC, Yuan vs BTC etc vs BTC lol!

Really, we will know after the fact for sure

Thanks for sharing

What's the corrlilation with stocks dropping and bitcoin going up

No "corrlilation" between stocks and bitcoins. Only inside your fertile imagination.

[suda123]

Thought it could be interesting, a couple pieces of proof connecting BTC price and China capital flows. The scales of these graphs are tuned up a bit to look more convincing, but anyway, you can clearly notice the coincidental rise in BTC prices just as CNY is tumbling (past 6.50 already)
[img]http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/12/20151208_btc1.jpg

Bitcoin Breaks Out Higher After China Announces Crackdown On UnionPay POS Devices

Still not clear whether it's correlation or causation.

Super interesting!

Trouble with BTC, everyone is always comparing BTC charts to some other charts. Ive seen gold vs BTC, S& P vs BTC, Yuan vs BTC etc vs BTC lol!

Really, we will know after the fact for sure

Thanks for sharing

whats your view on gold, it will go up right?

[Afrikoin]

Yes! Some of those areas look similar, but a few to note are:
(D) In 2011, D was already making higher highs (HH's) above the B. In Elliott wave, that was a subwave of the whole rise to $31.9099. In this case, it was a 3. In 2013, it was still part of the correction, or in the best supporting argument, a subwave of a subwave, 1 of 5. Visually, it makes no HH, so it really doesn't look similar at all.

Next, compare price of everything after the $1200 peak with the 2011/12 data you have there. Your corresponding points hit the bottom and began rising in the latter. In 2014, it continued down. This tells me that we are in a much larger cycle here that isn't really comparable to the 2010-2012 data you have without first stretching that data about 4x. I would argue that your F, G and H are more appropriately set up like this


Where F and G were all of 2014 and we are still somewhere in the H. Or at best, in the I. There is also the possibility that F was the entirety of 2014 and we are in G since January this year. I don't really have an opinion on which is more likely.

OK, so I replotted the data overlaying everything basically since the November 2013 runup to ATH with about a 3x compression.



No questioin that doing this results in a very interesting graph that parallels the previous cycle much closer.  This would put us in a situation where we are on the tail end of a phase 2, however, it could mean a phase 3 that more closely follows that of cycle 1.  The net result is a possible short term period of uptrend in price, followed by a period of slow growth.  Not a bad thing.  However, in cycle 1 this phase (3) did not overtake the ATH we reached in phase 2, so if that holds again it would mean we won't get over ~US$1200 for the forseeable future.

As I stated before though, this would mean that there is no discernible cycle to be found, and while I will continue to track it, the time frame of any future peaks becomes much hard to guess at.

OTOH, if we do see a significant growth over the next month or 2, I would say the time frame has not compressed, and the original cycle periods hold.  In the above plot we are starting to generate some disparity with the previous cycle at this point using this idea, so I think we will get an idea over the next couple of months which trend fits better.

The other possibility is a period of compressed time as shown above, followed by an expansion in X bringing our timeline back to the original; something like this:



which again puts us close to back to the beginning of a new cycle.  Again, time will tell.


My final thought on this, and not working on theories of Elliott waves or TA in general, is that if there is a fractal pattern becoming evident, it would present itself such that you could view similar trends on various time scales, as I have done above.  That would mean the original theory is not invalidated, but rather additional trends become evident by changing the scale of the X-axis.  Again, we will see.

[Afrikoin]

lots of lurkers here ey?

 

Keep watching

[Afrikoin]

Ah well, since this thread is still hanging around I'll post another update.

Bull fork still very much in play. Heres 4hour log chart



Bitcoin finding resistance on one of the trendlines, looks like it wants to break up and test the middle line of the fork again which was where it reached on the last spike the other day.

Heres zoomed out view of same chart for perspective.



Outlook bullish

[Afrikoin]

Any bearish thoughts/ posts out there?

Well thought out ones. Would love to see some bearish outlooks. WHole world is bullish on bitcoin now