Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[koryu]

every trend has an end but for now the long term parallel channel is still intact

[Afrikoin]

every trend has an end but for now the long term parallel channel is still intact

Thanks for the chart Koryu.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

every trend has an end but for now the long term parallel channel is still intact

Do you mind sharing this chart when zoomed out?

So we can see how these channels line up on a price chart since the ATH. For perspective and framing

[koryu]

Do you mind sharing this chart when zoomed out?

So we can see how these channels line up on a price chart since the ATH. For perspective and framing

Yes sure
The upper orange line is from ath to the 502$ top, the lower orange is the line from the last two lows during bear market, together they could form a triangle (bearish scenario).
the purple line is from the two failed breakouts during bearmarket, so its an old resistance line, which acted as support during the dump last days. It could form a triangle together with the upper orange line for consolidation.
the teal channel, is the lower support line from breakout which is parallel to the line of last two tops. The lower teal line and upper orange line could form also a triangle here.
The red line is the log down trend from bear market.

So it looks ok for now but falling below 350 would invalidate most of this.

/e: Mostly obious is that outbreak of the upper orange line would be very bullish and the middle of the channel would be a soft sell and the upper area of the channel a strong sell.

[Tzupy]

Latest DanV, I have similar scenarios in mind:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XNGkAb8M-BTCUSD-Outlook-for-2016-17-with-4-possibilities-see-notes/

[Afrikoin]

Latest DanV, I have similar scenarios in mind:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XNGkAb8M-BTCUSD-Outlook-for-2016-17-with-4-possibilities-see-notes/

me too!

But I've narrowed mine to 3 & 4

I also disagree with his timing of his low in 2017 ie 3

From LINK ABOVE

NOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean I will cause the price to follow that path. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD-1.35% to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin.
Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and accept that I don't really know nor understand any of this.

Analysis -
Due to limited availability of price history longer term EW counts are near impossible. Therefore, it is possible as I have explained in previous charts publication we could assume Nov 2013 top as lager wave . If this is correct then we could have:

1. Jan 2015 low as possible wave and that we have started a possible expanding ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which could see retest of 2013 high or make marginal new high to complete the larger cycle of 5 waves (please see chart below for details).



2. as per No1. but that we are forming a contracting triangle since Nov 2013 high as wave as shown in the chart which means we could continue to chop about in tighter range till we complete this before breaking to upside to retest the Nov 2013 high or make marginal new high.



3. OR Possibly that we have November 2013 High as major top of 5 wave cycle
3. Then what we are seeing since is retracement of the entire cycle. Under this scenario we have Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low as 1st zigzag. Since when we have made a corrective zigzag to the upside with spike high in Nov 2015. If this proves to be correct then we could see another larger zigzag to the downside as illustrated on that chart. Based on AB-CD patter where we consider percentage drop from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low and apply this from Nov 2015 spike high we get possible downside target of in the proximity of 65 which incidentally is also an area of wave 4 of one degree lower cycle often the area for retracement based on EW principle.

4. As per 3 above but with Nov 2015 spike high as being 1st part of the zigzag retracement to the upside where we could drop to 250 area and make another zigzag with upside target around 650 area as shown in the P&F chart below. Once the upside retracement is complete we could then drop in second zigzag at least to Jan 2015 low or make new low towards 65 zone.



It is interesting that Nov 2013, 2014 proved to be spike highs of the cycle. Could Nov 2015 also be the spike high of the cycle and that we now continue lower as per 3 above? Time will tell. Once we have some clarity, I will republish chart accordingly.

Conclusion: Due to the length of time for correction and lack of bullish counts to the upside, I am leaning on scenarios 3 or 4.

[Afrikoin]

Short term near term DanV outlook

[Afrikoin]

Do you mind sharing this chart when zoomed out?

So we can see how these channels line up on a price chart since the ATH. For perspective and framing

Yes sure
The upper orange line is from ath to the 502$ top, the lower orange is the line from the last two lows during bear market, together they could form a triangle (bearish scenario).
the purple line is from the two failed breakouts during bearmarket, so its an old resistance line, which acted as support during the dump last days. It could form a triangle together with the upper orange line for consolidation.
the teal channel, is the lower support line from breakout which is parallel to the line of last two tops. The lower teal line and upper orange line could form also a triangle here.
The red line is the log down trend from bear market.

So it looks ok for now but falling below 350 would invalidate most of this.

/e: Mostly obious is that outbreak of the upper orange line would be very bullish and the middle of the channel would be a soft sell and the upper area of the channel a strong sell.

From what i gather looking at charts and discussions online, your $350 WILL be broken. Almost a foregone conclusion now.

[spazzdla]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

[koryu]

From what i gather looking at charts and discussions online, your $350 WILL be broken. Almost a foregone conclusion now.

Yes I have read this, too. People talked like its a certainty. But the trendline has hold and most people already went short.
So after this shortsqueeze, now it would need a lot of panic to break sub 350, I would keep an eye on the Ichimoku cloud and ema 50 on 4h and 1d chart.
Cloud shows support for the line on 1d.



on the 4h consolidation above the cloud would be nice.

[Afrikoin]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

[Hyena]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.

[8up]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?

[Afrikoin]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.

500? Why you say so?

i find that hard to believe considering all the drama around the bitcoin protocol. Does that not matter?

 

[Afrikoin]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?

I do not day trade. I look for medium - long term entry positions. That is my strategy, large moves. It could go up to $500 and i would not be bothered. What I am interested in is, what happens after that. Is the bear trend over or not.

[8up]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?

I do not day trade. I look for medium - long term entry positions. That is my strategy, large moves. It could go up to $500 and i would not be bothered. What I am interested in is, what happens after that. Is the bear trend over or not.

So what you're saying is, that the break of $500 is similar to the break of $135 back in 2013 or the break of $15 in late 2012/early 2013? I assume you are now >80% in cash. Do I get it right?

[Hyena]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.

500? Why you say so?

i find that hard to believe considering all the drama around the bitcoin protocol. Does that not matter?

 

Because the market sentiment has changed by now. Mike's rant is yesterday and no one takes it seriously any more. The drama is over since we left 380$ prices. 380$ was the price that was critical, I even sold 10 BTC when we went to 380$ but after 2 days of no price action I bought the sold bitcoins back at the same price and boom, we went to 420$ range. 400$ was the psychological barrier for many and prices lower than that had a high potential to trigger panic selling. Now that we are above 400$ again no one is panicking any more.

I don't want to sound lame, but look at the smart money:
Roger Ver Retorts Hearn - The Death of Bitcoin Has Been Greatly Exaggerated - TDV Interviews

[Afrikoin]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?

I do not day trade. I look for medium - long term entry positions. That is my strategy, large moves. It could go up to $500 and i would not be bothered. What I am interested in is, what happens after that. Is the bear trend over or not.

So what you're saying is, that the break of $500 is similar to the break of $135 back in 2013 or the break of $15 in late 2012/early 2013? I assume you are now >80% in cash. Do I get it right?

I havent been around that long.

If scroll up this thread. Post #627.

That is what I am saying

[Afrikoin]

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.

500? Why you say so?

i find that hard to believe considering all the drama around the bitcoin protocol. Does that not matter?

 

Because the market sentiment has changed by now. Mike's rant is yesterday and no one takes it seriously any more. The drama is over since we left 380$ prices. 380$ was the price that was critical, I even sold 10 BTC when we went to 380$ but after 2 days of no price action I bought the sold bitcoins back at the same price and boom, we went to 420$ range. 400$ was the psychological barrier for many and prices lower than that had a high potential to trigger panic selling. Now that we are above 400$ again no one is panicking any more.

I don't want to sound lame, but look at the smart money:
Roger Ver Retorts Hearn - The Death of Bitcoin Has Been Greatly Exaggerated - TDV Interviews

I would not take trading advice from ROger Ver.

Bitcoin is not dead, that is for sure. But the hardfork/soft fork risk is real. I do not see how it would not affect price.