Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Afrikoin]

Here comes the headlines!

Bitcoin Price Dips Closer to $400 Following Network Disruptions

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-400-network-disruption/

[RyNinDaCleM]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....

After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.

It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place -- the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.

Well i would disagree with (bold).

That's one conclusion.

There's also A LOT more!

$250 is a target on another EW forecast for eg.  DanV's chart. You must have missed it.

And there's another one (EW) that forecasts upto $100

So you see, you are missing the bigger picture here. It is about probable moves, and checking them off as they do/ do not happen.

That's IMO

That is exactly right!
EW separates the possible from the impossible and provides stop loss by way of hard rules. So there can be both bullish and bearish counts from the same structure. As with any form of market analysis, you won't always be right, but the rules are there to get you out of a wrong-side trade early.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Get some "inferium" before it becomes unaffordable for you

lol, Inferium will never be out of reach, shill! Take this shit back to the trashcan shitcoin sub, kthxbye.

[nanobrain]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....

After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.

It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place -- the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.

Well i would disagree with (bold).

That's one conclusion.

There's also A LOT more!

$250 is a target on another EW forecast for eg.  DanV's chart. You must have missed it.

And there's another one (EW) that forecasts upto $100

So you see, you are missing the bigger picture here. It is about probable moves, and checking them off as they do/ do not happen.

That's IMO

That is exactly right!
EW separates the possible from the impossible and provides stop loss by way of hard rules. So there can be both bullish and bearish counts from the same structure. As with any form of market analysis, you won't always be right, but the rules are there to get you out of a wrong-side trade early.

You could substitute the words 'E.W." with tea leaves or Kau Cim and rationalise their results the same way.  "Well, one of them was a correct prediction" is no real justification for a predictive method.

There is always the bias of the analyst, which is why there is always such a broad range of completely different charts, especially since most of 'analysts' are bedroom based auto-didacts who swear they are both incredibly skilled and completely 'unemotional'.  And of course, the male of the species loves to believe he has powers of foresight which can be explained by maths and science.

When I first started with BTC 3/4 years back there was an incredible thread by some guy who provided the most amazing mathematical/statistical analysis (trend reversal perhaps, I can't recall) -- he got completely caught out by the second Gox bubble.

BTC has too many chaotic variables to rely on any one specific indicator.

[Tzupy]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

Chessnut! Always bullish gotta love the guy.
Too bad he sort of left bitcointalk.

My bets are on a continuation of the uptrend after retracing to ~410 maybe?

Yeah. Think the whole market agrees $400 will be decisive. I am on the fence on this one.

Ready to jump if it shoots up

And if 400$ won't hold (about a week from now IMO) I'll max my short, others may dump big too.

Whole market will go insane if $400 fails to hold!

Well, maybe it's the right time for panic...

[RyNinDaCleM]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....

After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.

It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place -- the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.

Well i would disagree with (bold).

That's one conclusion.

There's also A LOT more!

$250 is a target on another EW forecast for eg.  DanV's chart. You must have missed it.

And there's another one (EW) that forecasts upto $100

So you see, you are missing the bigger picture here. It is about probable moves, and checking them off as they do/ do not happen.

That's IMO

That is exactly right!
EW separates the possible from the impossible and provides stop loss by way of hard rules. So there can be both bullish and bearish counts from the same structure. As with any form of market analysis, you won't always be right, but the rules are there to get you out of a wrong-side trade early.

You could substitute the words 'E.W." with tea leaves or Kau Cim and rationalise their results the same way.  "Well, one of them was a correct prediction" is no real justification for a predictive method.

There is always the bias of the analyst, which is why there is always such a broad range of completely different charts, especially since most of 'analysts' are bedroom based auto-didacts who swear they are both incredibly skilled and completely 'unemotional'.  And of course, the male of the species loves to believe he has powers of foresight which can be explained by maths and science.

When I first started with BTC 3/4 years back there was an incredible thread by some guy who provided the most amazing mathematical/statistical analysis (trend reversal perhaps, I can't recall) -- he got completely caught out by the second Gox bubble.

BTC has too many chaotic variables to rely on any one specific indicator.

I am so tired of this discussion, so I'll put it another way... A way a woman can understand. I know what it's like when you don't understand something, baby! Like, I don't understand why someone would go into a TA thread and complain that it doesn't work. You sound like an overly enthusiastic religious mom, or something... Trying to convert others to your point of view as if your pov is the only and right system. Just walk away and ignore it if you don't believe in it. If it's just a self fulfilling prophecy, then why not learn it? Then, at very least, you will be on the same page as the rest of us retard analysts and you profit. Or don't! I certainly dgaf one way or the other. It works for me and I have shown it in my thread. Is it perfect? Absolutely not! Then again, nothing ever is, just like Bitcoin. I'm wrong from time to time, in fact, just the other day, I thought I made a mistake. It happens!

[Afrikoin]

Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.

@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....

After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.

It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place -- the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.

Well i would disagree with (bold).

That's one conclusion.

There's also A LOT more!

$250 is a target on another EW forecast for eg.  DanV's chart. You must have missed it.

And there's another one (EW) that forecasts upto $100

So you see, you are missing the bigger picture here. It is about probable moves, and checking them off as they do/ do not happen.

That's IMO

That is exactly right!
EW separates the possible from the impossible and provides stop loss by way of hard rules. So there can be both bullish and bearish counts from the same structure. As with any form of market analysis, you won't always be right, but the rules are there to get you out of a wrong-side trade early.

You could substitute the words 'E.W." with tea leaves or Kau Cim and rationalise their results the same way.  "Well, one of them was a correct prediction" is no real justification for a predictive method.

There is always the bias of the analyst, which is why there is always such a broad range of completely different charts, especially since most of 'analysts' are bedroom based auto-didacts who swear they are both incredibly skilled and completely 'unemotional'.  And of course, the male of the species loves to believe he has powers of foresight which can be explained by maths and science.

When I first started with BTC 3/4 years back there was an incredible thread by some guy who provided the most amazing mathematical/statistical analysis (trend reversal perhaps, I can't recall) -- he got completely caught out by the second Gox bubble.

BTC has too many chaotic variables to rely on any one specific indicator.

Lol!

Ok

Whatever you say

[Afrikoin]

Core has done a lot for the protocol. Under - appreciated at times.

Thanks Core!

What Have The Core Bitcoin Devs Ever Done For Us?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bx44a/what_have_the_core_bitcoin_devs_ever_done_for_us/

[Afrikoin]

Gold's Rally A Study In Perfectiion

http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-39%3bs-rally-a-study-in-perfectiion-200120876

Look what gold did

[Afrikoin]

Gold's Rally A Study In Perfectiion

http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-39%3bs-rally-a-study-in-perfectiion-200120876

Look what gold did

[Afrikoin]

Mainstream media strikes again! Trying to box bitcoin as a currency and completely ignoring its other potential - killer app economic censorship.

I am starting to beleive there are outside forces that are out to make bitcoin fail and are now brainwashing the masses. Telling them bitcoin as a currency has failed.

Of course, we here know that ain't true

The bitcoin magic is losing its Midas touch

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/12e155dc-e5e4-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39.html#axzz42RMnrFyQ

[Afrikoin]

Yes!
I am still bearish. The recent news is just fuel to the fire that I have seen as possible for over a year now. It may make my C-wave chart come to fruition sooner than I recently thought, even a couple of weeks ago. If the market takes it as a severe enough situation, then 352.50 will be broken, the triangle wasn't actually a triangle and we be doomin'. ETH goes up more and extends the pump.

If the 352.50 level holds (preferably higher if it's going to) then we get triangle completion, a thrust wave as high as 700 +/- a bit, and completion of the bear market counter trend (suckers rally) for wave-B (or X) and we see continuation of the bear trend (not necessarily breaking 100$, but it is possible). I don't see ATH's this year.

Thanks for your thoughts. What is your long term view going out over the next several years? When do you expect the next ATH? I think it will be some time yet, not least because great expectations for the halving should bring great disappointment in this ruthless market.

I think the blocksize issue is holding down price not because blocks are full (the 7 day average is only at 75.66% at the moment) but because of the uncertainties of governance and protocol development. Also the halving brings further uncertainty because of fears of decreased hash rate causing miners to drop out resulting in difficulty adjustment issues. In that way this halving does not exactly parallel the previous one, as at that time hash rate was very likely set to increase due to the switch to ASICs.

We also should see ETH either succeed or fail very publicly. I bet on the latter.

Some interesting circumstances were pointed out in that article, that tells me it has become a very serious issue if not addressed in the very short future. If price doesn't rise before the halving, mining will not be profitable and the network could see the same problem Namecoin saw in 2012 when it was mined so heavily that difficulty rose to extremely high levels (at the time) and nearly abandoned causing blocks to take days and retargets to take months. If the decision hadn't been made to merged mine it along side Bitcoin, it would have surely died. The problem here is that there is no coin bigger to save Bitcoin. If this scenario happens, we will be in unknown territory. The fear of this scenario is enough to make some seek to exit completely and others to head for alts with seemingly promising futures. Some of this fueled ETH, I'm sure.

I feel ETH is another "right place at the right time" pump as LTC was in June/July last year. In LTC's case, pumpers knew it was approaching the halving so there would be plenty of speculation helping drive it, and Bitcoin slumping/stagnating just drew in traders since there was something with movement. In ETH's case, Bitcoin has the threat outlined above coupled with a relentless group behind the pump and new developments which may or maynot prove useless once released. I feel ETH will eventually see a spectacular crash the likes of which only crypto can offer and the lead group coming out vastly richer in BTC terms than previously. Many butt hurt investors will leave crypto as was the case with any Bitcoin crash in the past.

I have traded ETH exactly opposite of Bitcoin since polo first offered it. This has not change, even today. BTC up, ETH down... ETH up, BTC down. When The ETH pumpers get done fleecing ETH fish, Bitcoin will come back to life, break out of this consolidation and move up in it's thrust wave, except in the case (again) outlined in the first paragraph.

As for a Bitcoin ATH?
First and foremost, there needs to be a permanent fix to the blocksize issue and more generally, the practices of the Bitcoin dev teams. SegWit is not a fix and may introduce more problems considering it has a massive new code base. With lots of code, comes lots of potential bugs/errors. Personally, I don't think it's a fix, only a band-aid.
Second, I don't think new adoption is as high as many would like to believe. As long as huge amounts of new money isn't pouring in, no new ATH. Bulls haven't been beaten enough to panic so are all-in, and have no significant amount of money to buy the price up. Again, no new money, price doesn't rise. We need to go down before halving, get a massive deleveraging of market participants, and a fear to buy, so that when it does begin to rise, there is money to move it.
The second part being the psychological aspects to how trends and more specifically, EW works. No trend==corrective movement which is what we are seeing since January 2015.

Sorry for the long winded post! I don't have a TL;DR either... Just read it

If Morecoin would like me to delete this for the OT nature, just let me know and I will.

[Afrikoin]

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates in the eurozone to zero, expanded its money printing programme and reduced a key deposit rate further into negative territory as it seeks to revive the region’s economy and fend off deflation.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/10/ecb-cuts-eurozone-interest-rate-to-zero

[8up]

^^won't work because Behavioral Economics >> Monetary Policy

[Afrikoin]

Japanese mega-corporations complete trial using the bitcoin blockchain

http://bravenewcoin.com/news/japanese-mega-corporations-complete-trial-using-the-bitcoin-blockchain/

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

a few weeks ago there was the "The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus", right after this i wrote the update above. well bitcoin didn't skyrocket to that 750 target i had... unfortunately the poeple seem to have little faith in "Consensus" reached at the round table, Core's roadmap does promise segwit and then 2MB HF later ( IF there is "widespread Consensus" ), but poeple aren't still convinced this is the best way forward. 2MB is popular, of course there are still many that loves cores vision of scaling bitcoin with a second layer solution but as far as popular opinion, main chain scaling is what "the poeple" want, And Core is playing a very dangerous game, they are going against popular opinion. They have a different vision than most when it comes to scaling bitcoin, and they are sticking to it. how exactly this is all going to play out is anyone's guess, and fuck i'm done trying to guess this, frankly i dont give a crap. My idea is that one way or another bitcoin will be made to scale, hopefully core can deliver segwit on time and this will allow the market to breath a sigh of relief ( breaking 500 ).  I'm currently buying the FUD about bitcoin being slow broken, unable to scale, i'm buying into this FUD because I thinking it is unjustified...

Despite the lack of resolution from "The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus" ( if anything it seemed to have added fuel to the fire ) the graph still looks good doesn't it... this is the bullmarket effect, FUD can only slow down or temporarily prevent a rise. We are currently at a very important resistance / support line (415-420 ish) and appear to be moving above it. I do not believe the market will wait for segwit release to break up higher, this market likes to try and stay one step ahead, so this means we are moving up and we are doing it now.

Adam's prediction: >= 750 in < 2 months
Adam's Cheap Coins Target: 405

[Wekkel]

Price is quite strong the last few months despite developer-fights. I'm quite positive for the medium term.

[2015Bubble]

but but ..
We are going DOWN ?

[Afrikoin]