Legendary one day?

[shorena]

So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena

20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?

The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)

If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.

You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%

The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.

Ok. Then I guess that it is just keithers interpretation (that he has a 20% probability of becoming legendary when the activity period changes) which is incorrect.

Its just a different view on things. They have a 20% chance to become legendary with all past updates since 774 activity including the next change. They have an 6.5% change to become legendary with the next change. I will include both numbers with the next update (tomorrow?).

[suchmoon]

So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena

20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?

The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)

If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.

You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%

The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.

I like 20 better than 6 lol

It's actually 50% - you'll either get it or not 

[mcb1221]

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

[newIndia]

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Congratulations on reaching the finishing line. I have just reached the starting point.

[keithers]

swing and a miss for me today 

[redsn0w]

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Congratulations mcb1221, welcome to the legendary club  !

[shorena]

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Gratz, these long weekends always mess up my week. Time for an update.

Code:

name			 act	 prob.1		prob.2
cagrund[5]		  882	 42.19%		 9.46%
keithers[3]		  882	 42.19%		 9.46%
BitCoinDream[4]	 	  882	 42.19%		 9.46%
Xialla[2]		  896	 47.66%		10.45%

prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = ((act-774)/256)
prob.2 = 14/1030-act

a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> https://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

Code:

name			act	 prob.
redsn0w			 784	 hit it
shorena		  	 812	 hit it
EcuaMobi 		 826	 hit it
TheNewAnon135246	 840	 hit it
koshgel			 854	 hit it
devthedev		 868	 hit it
minifrij		 896	 hit it
tspacepilot		 924	 hit it
Blazed			 924	 hit it
alani123		 938	 hit it
Mitchełł		 952	 hit it
EAL			 952	 hit it
notlist3d		 952	 hit it
OnkelPaul		 966	 hit it
xetsr			 966	 hit it
qwk			 994	 hit it
Lauda			 994	 hit it
defaced			1008	 hit it
Lincoln6Echo		1013	 hit it
mprep			1022	 hit it
mcb1221 		1022	 hit it

[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=103451
[3] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=188912
[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181001
[5] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154816
[42] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg14348133#msg14348133

[notlist3d]

Thanks to all who have kept this going, I lurk here still .  I still enjoy looking at what numbers people hit legendary at.  The prob 1 and 2 is pretty amazing to look at chart.  So big thanks to shorena on doing all of that.

Congrats to the many I have not posted for.  I tried to cutback on amount of times I was doing that.

[koshgel]

I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

as legendary

Liking the colored coin

[redsn0w]

I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

as legendary

Liking the colored coin

Congratulations !

[keithers]

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol

[cagrund]

Hmm, seems i didn't hit it today.

[cakir]

1st try: nope
See you in 2 weeks.

[mcb1221]

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol

You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

[skeletonbit]

I wish you the best of luck to hit Legendary in 2 weeks cagrund&cakir.

[jaff11]

It's "somewhere between 775 and 1030 activity" "but the exact point in this range at which you become Legendary is random per user"
So yeah, "random" doesn't like you.

[keithers]

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol

You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

Thanks

[redsn0w]

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol

You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

Thanks

Welcome to the club @keithers !

[keithers]

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol

You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

Thanks

Welcome to the club @keithers !

Thank you!!

[shorena]

gratz keithers

Code:

name			 act	 prob.1		prob.2
BitCoinDream[4]	 	  882	 42.19%		 9.46%
cagrund[5]		  896	 47.66%		10.45%
Xialla[2]		  910	 64.84%		11.67%

prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = (act-774)/256
prob.2 = 14/(1030-act)

a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> https://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

Code:

name			act	 prob.
redsn0w			 784	 hit it
shorena		  	 812	 hit it
EcuaMobi 		 826	 hit it
TheNewAnon135246	 840	 hit it
koshgel			 854	 hit it
devthedev		 868	 hit it
minifrij		 896	 hit it
tspacepilot		 924	 hit it
Blazed			 924	 hit it
alani123		 938	 hit it
keithers		 840	 hit it
Mitchełł		 952	 hit it
EAL			 952	 hit it
notlist3d		 952	 hit it
OnkelPaul		 966	 hit it
xetsr			 966	 hit it
qwk			 994	 hit it
Lauda			 994	 hit it
defaced			1008	 hit it
Lincoln6Echo		1013	 hit it
mprep			1022	 hit it
mcb1221 		1022	 hit it

[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=103451
[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181001
[5] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154816
[42] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg14348133#msg14348133