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Author Topic: Legendary one day?  (Read 102684 times)
shorena
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March 29, 2016, 04:16:24 PM
 #401

So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena Smiley

20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?

The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)

If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.

You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%

The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.

Ok. Then I guess that it is just keithers interpretation (that he has a 20% probability of becoming legendary when the activity period changes) which is incorrect.

Its just a different view on things. They have a 20% chance to become legendary with all past updates since 774 activity including the next change. They have an 6.5% change to become legendary with the next change. I will include both numbers with the next update (tomorrow?).
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March 29, 2016, 04:20:17 PM
 #402

So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena Smiley

20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?

The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)

If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.

You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%

The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.

I like 20 better than 6 lol Smiley

It's actually 50% - you'll either get it or not  Grin

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March 29, 2016, 05:11:33 PM
 #403

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys.. Sad

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day Grin.

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

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newIndia
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March 29, 2016, 05:29:48 PM
 #404

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys.. Sad

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day Grin.

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!
Congratulations on reaching the finishing line. Smiley I have just reached the starting point. Wink

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March 29, 2016, 05:34:48 PM
 #405

swing and a miss for me today  Shocked
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March 29, 2016, 06:25:27 PM
 #406

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys.. Sad

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day Grin.

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Congratulations mcb1221, welcome to the legendary club  Grin !
shorena
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March 29, 2016, 08:03:52 PM
Last edit: March 31, 2016, 11:19:39 AM by shorena
 #407

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys.. Sad

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day Grin.

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Gratz, these long weekends always mess up my week. Time for an update.



Code:
name act prob.1 prob.2
cagrund[5]  882 42.19% 9.46%
keithers[3]  882 42.19% 9.46%
BitCoinDream[4]  882 42.19% 9.46%
Xialla[2]  896 47.66% 10.45%

prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = ((act-774)/256)
prob.2 = 14/1030-act

a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> http://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

Code:
name act prob.
redsn0w 784 hit it
shorena   812 hit it
EcuaMobi 826 hit it
TheNewAnon135246 840 hit it
koshgel 854 hit it
devthedev 868 hit it
minifrij 896 hit it
tspacepilot 924 hit it
Blazed 924 hit it
alani123 938 hit it
Mitchełł 952 hit it
EAL 952 hit it
notlist3d 952 hit it
OnkelPaul 966 hit it
xetsr 966 hit it
qwk 994 hit it
Lauda 994 hit it
defaced 1008 hit it
Lincoln6Echo 1013 hit it
mprep 1022 hit it
mcb1221 1022 hit it


[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=103451
[3] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=188912
[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181001
[5] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154816
[42] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg14348133#msg14348133
notlist3d
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March 30, 2016, 03:53:27 AM
 #408

Thanks to all who have kept this going, I lurk here still Smiley.  I still enjoy looking at what numbers people hit legendary at.  The prob 1 and 2 is pretty amazing to look at chart.  So big thanks to shorena on doing all of that.

Congrats to the many I have not posted for.  I tried to cutback on amount of times I was doing that.
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March 31, 2016, 01:16:36 AM
Last edit: March 31, 2016, 03:18:35 AM by koshgel
 #409

I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

as legendary Tongue

Liking the colored coin
redsn0w
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April 02, 2016, 12:33:08 PM
 #410

I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

as legendary Tongue

Liking the colored coin


Congratulations !
keithers
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April 12, 2016, 06:22:41 PM
 #411

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
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April 12, 2016, 07:05:10 PM
 #412

Hmm, seems i didn't hit it today.

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April 12, 2016, 07:59:36 PM
 #413

1st try: nope Sad
See you in 2 weeks.


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mcb1221
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April 12, 2016, 09:30:22 PM
 #414

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club. Wink

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April 13, 2016, 02:14:26 AM
 #415

I wish you the best of luck to hit Legendary in 2 weeks cagrund&cakir.
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April 13, 2016, 04:37:23 AM
 #416


It's "somewhere between 775 and 1030 activity" "but the exact point in this range at which you become Legendary is random per user"
So yeah, "random" doesn't like you.
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April 13, 2016, 04:47:56 AM
 #417

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club. Wink

Thanks Smiley
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April 13, 2016, 05:30:19 AM
 #418

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club. Wink

Thanks Smiley


Welcome to the club @keithers !
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April 13, 2016, 03:15:32 PM
 #419

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club. Wink

Thanks Smiley


Welcome to the club @keithers !

Thank you!! Smiley
shorena
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April 13, 2016, 07:39:17 PM
 #420

gratz keithers

Code:
name act prob.1 prob.2
BitCoinDream[4]  882 42.19% 9.46%
cagrund[5]   896 47.66% 10.45%
Xialla[2]  910 64.84% 11.67%

prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = (act-774)/256
prob.2 = 14/(1030-act)

a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> http://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

Code:
name act prob.
redsn0w 784 hit it
shorena   812 hit it
EcuaMobi 826 hit it
TheNewAnon135246 840 hit it
koshgel 854 hit it
devthedev 868 hit it
minifrij 896 hit it
tspacepilot 924 hit it
Blazed 924 hit it
alani123 938 hit it
keithers 840 hit it
Mitchełł 952 hit it
EAL 952 hit it
notlist3d 952 hit it
OnkelPaul 966 hit it
xetsr 966 hit it
qwk 994 hit it
Lauda 994 hit it
defaced 1008 hit it
Lincoln6Echo 1013 hit it
mprep 1022 hit it
mcb1221 1022 hit it


[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=103451
[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181001
[5] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154816
[42] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg14348133#msg14348133
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