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 Author Topic: Legendary one day?  (Read 102699 times)
shorena
Copper Member
Legendary

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Activity: 1484
Merit: 1345

No I dont escrow anymore.

 March 29, 2016, 04:16:24 PM

So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena

20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?

The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)

If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.

You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%

The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.

Ok. Then I guess that it is just keithers interpretation (that he has a 20% probability of becoming legendary when the activity period changes) which is incorrect.

Its just a different view on things. They have a 20% chance to become legendary with all past updates since 774 activity including the next change. They have an 6.5% change to become legendary with the next change. I will include both numbers with the next update (tomorrow?).
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suchmoon
Legendary

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Activity: 2198
Merit: 4565

https://bpip.org

 March 29, 2016, 04:20:17 PM

So I have about a 20% chance of legendary tomorrow per Shorena

20% seems excessively high, given that your activity is 812 now.
Has Shorena explained the calculation somewhere?

The range is 775 to 1030 (255 activity points)

If the next activity is 812+14 = 826 then it's 51 points into the 255-point range, i.e. 20%.

You can effectively rule out the 775 - 812 range (given that he hasn't become legendary until now).
So the range for keithers currently is 813 to 1030 (217 activity points)
He is going to gain 14 activity points in the next period.
So the probability of him becoming legendary in the next period is 14/217 = 6.5%

The probability I calculate is whther its among the first X activity points (as suchmoon calculated as well). Your approach would work as well.

I like 20 better than 6 lol

It's actually 50% - you'll either get it or not

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mcb1221
Legendary

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Activity: 1162
Merit: 1000

 March 29, 2016, 05:11:33 PM

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

 ▄▄▄▄██████████▄▄▄▄         ▄▄██▀▀▀               ▀▀▄▄      ▄▄█▀                         ▀▀▄    ▄█▀                        ▄▄▀▀▀▀▀█  ▄██                     ▄▄█▀▀     ▄▀ ██▀                 ▄▄██████▄    ▄▀███               ▄▄██████████▄  ▀██             ▄▄█████████████▀██          ▄▄█████████████▀██        ▄ ▀████████████████▄    ▄██▀▀  ▀▀████████▀ ██   ██▀        ▀▀████▀  ██ █▀   ▀█  █▄ ▀▄ ▄▀    ▀▄ ▀ SatoshiGames.io ██████████████████████████████ ▄▀▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄           ▄▄▄▄█  ▄█     ▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀   █  ▀ █            ▀▀▀▀▄█  █▄        ▄▀                    ▄▀▀▄ █ ▀       █         ▄           █ █          █        ▄██▄         ▄▀ █         ▄▀     ▄██████▄       ▄▀ ▀▄        █    ▄█████████▄      █  █       █      ██████████▄    ▄▀  █      ▄▀        ▀████████   ▄▀  ▀▄     █        ▄████▀▀▀▀    █   █    █          ▀▀▀█       ▄▀   █   ▄▀                    ▄▀   ▀▄  █                     █    █  ▀▄▄              █ ▄ ▄▀    █     ▀▀▀▀▄▄▄       █▀ ▄▀    ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄█ ★ ▬▬▬ FREE ROLL ▬▬▬ ★..TOURNAMENT.. ██▄▄▄▄██████▄▄█▄▄██████▄▄▄▄███████████████████████████████▄▀▄           █           ▄▀▄█   █         ▄█▄         █   ██     █        ███        █     ██       █       ███       █       ██         █     █████     █         ██           █    █████    █           ██             █   █████   █             ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█   █████   █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▀███████████▀    █████    ▀███████████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀       ███       ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄███▄▄▄▄█████████████▄▄▄ ★ ▬▬ PROVABLY FAIR ▬▬ ★........CASINO....... BTC ★ ▬▬▬▬▬ +150% ▬▬▬▬▬ ★.....1st DEPOSIT..... ██████████████████████████████
newIndia
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 1033

 March 29, 2016, 05:29:48 PM

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!
Congratulations on reaching the finishing line. I have just reached the starting point.

keithers
Legendary

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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1001

This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

 March 29, 2016, 05:34:48 PM

swing and a miss for me today
redsn0w
Legendary

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Activity: 1778
Merit: 1041

#Free market

 March 29, 2016, 06:25:27 PM

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Congratulations mcb1221, welcome to the legendary club  !
shorena
Copper Member
Legendary

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Activity: 1484
Merit: 1345

No I dont escrow anymore.

 March 29, 2016, 08:03:52 PMLast edit: March 31, 2016, 11:19:39 AM by shorena

Ahh..I am at activity:1008 and by Tomorrow it will be 1022 , I guess i am of the the unlucky guys..

We'll be waiting for you buddy! Just one more day .

Just noticed that i am legendary Now!

Gratz, these long weekends always mess up my week. Time for an update.

Code:
name act prob.1 prob.2
cagrund[5]  882 42.19% 9.46%
keithers[3]  882 42.19% 9.46%
BitCoinDream[4]  882 42.19% 9.46%
Xialla[2]  896 47.66% 10.45%

prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = ((act-774)/256)
prob.2 = 14/1030-act

a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> http://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

Code:
name act prob.
redsn0w 784 hit it
shorena   812 hit it
EcuaMobi 826 hit it
TheNewAnon135246 840 hit it
koshgel 854 hit it
devthedev 868 hit it
minifrij 896 hit it
tspacepilot 924 hit it
Blazed 924 hit it
alani123 938 hit it
Mitchełł 952 hit it
EAL 952 hit it
notlist3d 952 hit it
OnkelPaul 966 hit it
xetsr 966 hit it
qwk 994 hit it
Lauda 994 hit it
defaced 1008 hit it
Lincoln6Echo 1013 hit it
mprep 1022 hit it
mcb1221 1022 hit it

[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=103451
[3] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=188912
[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181001
[5] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154816
[42] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg14348133#msg14348133
notlist3d
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000

 March 30, 2016, 03:53:27 AM

Thanks to all who have kept this going, I lurk here still .  I still enjoy looking at what numbers people hit legendary at.  The prob 1 and 2 is pretty amazing to look at chart.  So big thanks to shorena on doing all of that.

Congrats to the many I have not posted for.  I tried to cutback on amount of times I was doing that.
koshgel
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1134
Merit: 1001

 March 31, 2016, 01:16:36 AMLast edit: March 31, 2016, 03:18:35 AM by koshgel

I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

as legendary

Liking the colored coin
redsn0w
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 1041

#Free market

 April 02, 2016, 12:33:08 PM

I AM REBORNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

as legendary

Liking the colored coin

Congratulations !
keithers
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1386
Merit: 1001

This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

 April 12, 2016, 06:22:41 PM

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
cagrund
Legendary

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Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000

CTO für den Bundesverband Bitcoin e. V.

 April 12, 2016, 07:05:10 PM

Hmm, seems i didn't hit it today.

cakir
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1274
Merit: 1000

★ BitClave ICO: 15/09/17 ★

 April 12, 2016, 07:59:36 PM

1st try: nope
See you in 2 weeks.

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mcb1221
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1000

 April 12, 2016, 09:30:22 PM

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

 ▄▄▄▄██████████▄▄▄▄         ▄▄██▀▀▀               ▀▀▄▄      ▄▄█▀                         ▀▀▄    ▄█▀                        ▄▄▀▀▀▀▀█  ▄██                     ▄▄█▀▀     ▄▀ ██▀                 ▄▄██████▄    ▄▀███               ▄▄██████████▄  ▀██             ▄▄█████████████▀██          ▄▄█████████████▀██        ▄ ▀████████████████▄    ▄██▀▀  ▀▀████████▀ ██   ██▀        ▀▀████▀  ██ █▀   ▀█  █▄ ▀▄ ▄▀    ▀▄ ▀ SatoshiGames.io ██████████████████████████████ ▄▀▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄           ▄▄▄▄█  ▄█     ▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀   █  ▀ █            ▀▀▀▀▄█  █▄        ▄▀                    ▄▀▀▄ █ ▀       █         ▄           █ █          █        ▄██▄         ▄▀ █         ▄▀     ▄██████▄       ▄▀ ▀▄        █    ▄█████████▄      █  █       █      ██████████▄    ▄▀  █      ▄▀        ▀████████   ▄▀  ▀▄     █        ▄████▀▀▀▀    █   █    █          ▀▀▀█       ▄▀   █   ▄▀                    ▄▀   ▀▄  █                     █    █  ▀▄▄              █ ▄ ▄▀    █     ▀▀▀▀▄▄▄       █▀ ▄▀    ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄▄▄▄█ ★ ▬▬▬ FREE ROLL ▬▬▬ ★..TOURNAMENT.. ██▄▄▄▄██████▄▄█▄▄██████▄▄▄▄███████████████████████████████▄▀▄           █           ▄▀▄█   █         ▄█▄         █   ██     █        ███        █     ██       █       ███       █       ██         █     █████     █         ██           █    █████    █           ██             █   █████   █             ██▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█   █████   █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▀███████████▀    █████    ▀███████████▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀       ███       ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄███▄▄▄▄█████████████▄▄▄ ★ ▬▬ PROVABLY FAIR ▬▬ ★........CASINO....... BTC ★ ▬▬▬▬▬ +150% ▬▬▬▬▬ ★.....1st DEPOSIT..... ██████████████████████████████
skeletonbit
Sr. Member

Offline

Activity: 286
Merit: 250

 April 13, 2016, 02:14:26 AM

I wish you the best of luck to hit Legendary in 2 weeks cagrund&cakir.
jaff11
Newbie

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Activity: 32
Merit: 0

 April 13, 2016, 04:37:23 AM

It's "somewhere between 775 and 1030 activity" "but the exact point in this range at which you become Legendary is random per user"
So yeah, "random" doesn't like you.
keithers
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1386
Merit: 1001

This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

 April 13, 2016, 04:47:56 AM

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

Thanks
redsn0w
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1778
Merit: 1041

#Free market

 April 13, 2016, 05:30:19 AM

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

Thanks

Welcome to the club @keithers !
keithers
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1386
Merit: 1001

This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

 April 13, 2016, 03:15:32 PM

activity adjusts again today right?    I don't know if mine has updated yet...have another shot at legendary today I believe...lol
You just hit that.
welcome to legendary club.

Thanks

Welcome to the club @keithers !

Thank you!!
shorena
Copper Member
Legendary

Offline

Activity: 1484
Merit: 1345

No I dont escrow anymore.

 April 13, 2016, 07:39:17 PM

gratz keithers

Code:
name act prob.1 prob.2
BitCoinDream[4]  882 42.19% 9.46%
cagrund[5]   896 47.66% 10.45%
Xialla[2]  910 64.84% 11.67%

prob.1/2? Yes, these are two different views on the event of hitting legendary as discussed starting with this[42] post.
act = current activity+14
prob.1 = (act-774)/256
prob.2 = 14/(1030-act)

a picture to help understand how these two approaches evolve differently -> http://i.imgur.com/XYzBfm9.png

Code:
name act prob.
redsn0w 784 hit it
shorena   812 hit it
EcuaMobi 826 hit it
TheNewAnon135246 840 hit it
koshgel 854 hit it
devthedev 868 hit it
minifrij 896 hit it
tspacepilot 924 hit it
Blazed 924 hit it
alani123 938 hit it
keithers 840 hit it
Mitchełł 952 hit it
EAL 952 hit it
notlist3d 952 hit it
OnkelPaul 966 hit it
xetsr 966 hit it
qwk 994 hit it
Lauda 994 hit it
defaced 1008 hit it
Lincoln6Echo 1013 hit it
mprep 1022 hit it
mcb1221 1022 hit it

[2] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=103451
[4] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=181001
[5] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154816
[42] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1226681.msg14348133#msg14348133
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