bad news for bASIC - not shipping til mid Jan at best

[bitmar]

Until you got what you paid for in your hands, you just paid for lip service. That's all i have seen so far. All the drama associated with this new hardware has taken a lot of the appeal out of mining. Also the unprofessional outbursts that Tom and Inaba have at times just adds to that. Not sure if i want to be held hostage to those types of companies. I got my money back, and i hope they get there acts together.

good decision. If you buy preorder from one of the 3 companies you have a 33% chance that you will be one of the first ASIC miners . Why risk 100% of your money (in the event of fraud or bankruptcy) for 33% chance to earn a bit more money than the others ? If you wait until one of the companies will be the first and you will buy from them ASIC (existing), you have a 99% chance that you will not be scammed and 66% chance that you will not be  one of last ASIC miner .

Because it's not just a bit more.  It's a HUGE amount more.  The people who gets the first asics and mine at a difficulty of 3M will make as much in one week as the people who get ASICs afterward will make in 2 months.  It's a huge sum of money at stake... one for which many people (myself included) are willing to gamble on.

I doubt any of the three are scammers (at least purposefully).  I think they will all deliver.  So in my opinion, it is a 33% chance that I will be one of the first ASIC miners vs a 100% chance that I will not be.

Assuming that no company goes bankrupt, you're right. But I think the risk of bankruptcy / scam is high. What if the company you have chosen will produce ASIC few months later than the other? If you buy from a company that already has an existing ASIC (assuming that other companies have long delay), you'll be one of the first ASIC miners without risk Even if you good predict the company which will be first, you have no guarantee that this company will increase the difficulty before the rig gets to you. For those who like to risk I recommend satoshidice.com. This is better than ASIC preorder because you yourself can choose the level of risk Personally I do not like gambling;) This is why I did not buy preorder from any of the companies. I'm going to buy ASIC from a company that will be the first (if this will still worthwhile).

Now I'm waiting for a wave of criticism

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[creativex]

Assuming that no company goes bankrupt, you're right. But I think the risk of bankruptcy / scam is high. What if the company you have chosen will produce ASIC few months later than the other? If you buy from a company that already has an existing ASIC (assuming that other companies have long delay), you'll be one of the first ASIC miners without risk Even if you good predict the company which will be first, you have no guarantee that this company will increase the difficulty before the rig gets to you. For those who like to risk I recommend satoshidice.com. This is better than ASIC preorder because you yourself can choose the level of risk Personally I do not like gambling;) This is why I did not buy preorder from any of the companies. I'm going to buy ASIC from a company that will be the first (if this will still worthwhile).

Now I'm waiting for a wave of criticism

Pre-ordering is a risk, no doubt about it, consider that all three companies have lots of orders already and you may conclude that waiting till they ship isn't as great a strategy as it seems. Difficulty is surely to be much higher by the time an order placed after any of them ships gets delivered. That is why it's worth the risk to so many to pre-order.

[PuertoLibre]

Until you got what you paid for in your hands, you just paid for lip service. That's all i have seen so far. All the drama associated with this new hardware has taken a lot of the appeal out of mining. Also the unprofessional outbursts that Tom and Inaba have at times just adds to that. Not sure if i want to be held hostage to those types of companies. I got my money back, and i hope they get there acts together.

good decision. If you buy preorder from one of the 3 companies you have a 33% chance that you will be one of the first ASIC miners . Why risk 100% of your money (in the event of fraud or bankruptcy) for 33% chance to earn a bit more money than the others ? If you wait until one of the companies will be the first and you will buy from them ASIC (existing), you have a 99% chance that you will not be scammed and 66% chance that you will not be  one of last ASIC miner .

Because it's not just a bit more.  It's a HUGE amount more.  The people who gets the first asics and mine at a difficulty of 3M will make as much in one week as the people who get ASICs afterward will make in 2 months.  It's a huge sum of money at stake... one for which many people (myself included) are willing to gamble on.

I doubt any of the three are scammers (at least purposefully).  I think they will all deliver.  So in my opinion, it is a 33% chance that I will be one of the first ASIC miners vs a 100% chance that I will not be.

Assuming that no company goes bankrupt, you're right. But I think the risk of bankruptcy / scam is high. What if the company you have chosen will produce ASIC few months later than the other? If you buy from a company that already has an existing ASIC (assuming that other companies have long delay), you'll be one of the first ASIC miners without risk Even if you good predict the company which will be first, you have no guarantee that this company will increase the difficulty before the rig gets to you. For those who like to risk I recommend satoshidice.com. This is better than ASIC preorder because you yourself can choose the level of risk Personally I do not like gambling;) This is why I did not buy preorder from any of the companies. I'm going to buy ASIC from a company that will be the first (if this will still worthwhile).

Now I'm waiting for a wave of criticism

That sounds pretty reasonable, with few actual downsides. (besides some loss of potential profits).

Then again, you'll probably buy the hardware at a steep discount by the time they are actually released.

[creativex]

Why would vendors discount ASIC hardware until they have to? IOW why cut prices until competition and/or slow sales require it? ...and if slow sales require it, isn't the difficulty already too high to expect a rapid ROI? ...and doesn't a longer ROI come furnished with it's own risks? Pre-orders are risky, but if you're even mostly right about choosing a vendor then your ROI should be very short.

[SgtSpike]

Until you got what you paid for in your hands, you just paid for lip service. That's all i have seen so far. All the drama associated with this new hardware has taken a lot of the appeal out of mining. Also the unprofessional outbursts that Tom and Inaba have at times just adds to that. Not sure if i want to be held hostage to those types of companies. I got my money back, and i hope they get there acts together.

good decision. If you buy preorder from one of the 3 companies you have a 33% chance that you will be one of the first ASIC miners . Why risk 100% of your money (in the event of fraud or bankruptcy) for 33% chance to earn a bit more money than the others ? If you wait until one of the companies will be the first and you will buy from them ASIC (existing), you have a 99% chance that you will not be scammed and 66% chance that you will not be  one of last ASIC miner .

Because it's not just a bit more.  It's a HUGE amount more.  The people who gets the first asics and mine at a difficulty of 3M will make as much in one week as the people who get ASICs afterward will make in 2 months.  It's a huge sum of money at stake... one for which many people (myself included) are willing to gamble on.

I doubt any of the three are scammers (at least purposefully).  I think they will all deliver.  So in my opinion, it is a 33% chance that I will be one of the first ASIC miners vs a 100% chance that I will not be.

Assuming that no company goes bankrupt, you're right. But I think the risk of bankruptcy / scam is high. What if the company you have chosen will produce ASIC few months later than the other? If you buy from a company that already has an existing ASIC (assuming that other companies have long delay), you'll be one of the first ASIC miners without risk Even if you good predict the company which will be first, you have no guarantee that this company will increase the difficulty before the rig gets to you. For those who like to risk I recommend satoshidice.com. This is better than ASIC preorder because you yourself can choose the level of risk Personally I do not like gambling;) This is why I did not buy preorder from any of the companies. I'm going to buy ASIC from a company that will be the first (if this will still worthwhile).

Now I'm waiting for a wave of criticism

I definitely don't see BFL going bankrupt.  They have venture capital investment and have not touched the customer's pre-order funds.  Perhaps one or both of the others is a possibility to go bankrupt though, I do not know their financial situations.

If BFL has yet to ship out their product by the time the preorder queue is completed for either of the other two vendors, then I will likely cancel my order and switch to the company who has product ready to ship.  I am not interested in becoming one of the first ASIC miners without risk, because I already believe I have very little risk (of losing my money).  The other risk is that of not receiving the miners prior to one of the other companies shipping out all of their preorders, but in that case, it is the same difference if I just wait to see if that happens, then switch my order if needed.  And yes, I do have a guarantee (from BFL), that they will not be mining on mainnet with these ASICs.

The gamble isn't whether I will receive a product or not.  The gamble is whether I will be one of the FIRST to receive a product or not.  With nothing to lose (in my opinion), there is no reason not to take it.

[PuertoLibre]

Why would vendors discount ASIC hardware until they have to? IOW why cut prices until competition and/or slow sales require it? ...and if slow sales require it, isn't the difficulty already too high to expect a rapid ROI? ...and doesn't a longer ROI come furnished with it's own risks? Pre-orders are risky, but if you're even mostly right about choosing a vendor then your ROI should be very short.

Some vendors are probably spending money at a faster rate than others.

If some ASIC company starts shipping first....who knows how the market will respond?

Keep in mind, the prices we are buying at (pre-orders) is probably very inflated compared to what the actual cost of the hardware may be.

[creativex]

Why would vendors discount ASIC hardware until they have to? IOW why cut prices until competition and/or slow sales require it? ...and if slow sales require it, isn't the difficulty already too high to expect a rapid ROI? ...and doesn't a longer ROI come furnished with it's own risks? Pre-orders are risky, but if you're even mostly right about choosing a vendor then your ROI should be very short.

Some vendors are probably spending money at a faster rate than others.

If some ASIC company starts shipping first....who knows how the market will respond?

Keep in mind, the prices we are buying at (pre-orders) is probably very inflated compared to what the actual cost of the hardware may be.

Some ASIC company will start shipping first...eventually. While I agree it's possible the 2nd and 3rd place contestants in this 3 man race may cut prices somewhat to prevent an all out stampede, I wouldn't expect huge drops unless they're still far far from shipping themselves, in which case they may be headed toward bankruptcy and a stampede may be justified.

Yep, ASIC development is front end loaded.

[Jack1Rip1BurnIt]

BFL will drop their prices...you will see.

[bitmar]

I definitely don't see BFL going bankrupt.  They have venture capital investment and have not touched the customer's pre-order funds.  Perhaps one or both of the others is a possibility to go bankrupt though, I do not know their financial situations.

If BFL has yet to ship out their product by the time the preorder queue is completed for either of the other two vendors, then I will likely cancel my order and switch to the company who has product ready to ship.  I am not interested in becoming one of the first ASIC miners without risk, because I already believe I have very little risk (of losing my money).  The other risk is that of not receiving the miners prior to one of the other companies shipping out all of their preorders, but in that case, it is the same difference if I just wait to see if that happens, then switch my order if needed.  And yes, I do have a guarantee (from BFL), that they will not be mining on mainnet with these ASICs.

The gamble isn't whether I will receive a product or not.  The gamble is whether I will be one of the FIRST to receive a product or not.  With nothing to lose (in my opinion), there is no reason not to take it.

I am impressed by your optimism, especially when so much scams in the world of bitcoin.

They have venture capital investment and have not touched the customer's pre-order funds.

Is there any proof for this ?

If BFL has yet to ship out their product by the time the preorder queue is completed for either of the other two vendors, then I will likely cancel my order and switch to the company who has product ready to ship. 

If something goes wrong it may not be possible. There is always a risk.

And yes, I do have a guarantee (from BFL), that they will not be mining on mainnet with these ASICs.

In business, there is no fairness. Remember that BFL are masters of denial. If the difficulty will increase and people will start to suspect something, BFL will blame the competition (or someone else .. like coinlab or Chinese ). ....  Either you're right and they are faithful servants of the Church of the Good Samaritan

[SgtSpike]

I will admit, I am a natural optimist.

No proof of the venture capitalist, but I have no reason not to trust BFL at their word (despite what other people claim of them).

Ok, I will agree there is SOME risk.  There's also risk I could die on the way to work tomorrow.  Both are negligible risks, IMO.

I don't believe BFL would lie about something like this.  They are businesspeople.  They would rather make sales than scams.  They are not interested in mining for profit, because what they could get away with really is a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales, at the risk of completely ruining their reputation and bankrupting themselves... it is not worth it.  Some people do not see it this way, but I don't see any viable and productive means of them mining any significant portion of Bitcoin and getting away with it, and for that reason, I believe them when they say they won't.

[creativex]

I will admit, I am a natural optimist.

No proof of the venture capitalist, but I have no reason not to trust BFL at their word (despite what other people claim of them).

Ok, I will agree there is SOME risk.  There's also risk I could die on the way to work tomorrow.  Both are negligible risks, IMO.

I don't believe BFL would lie about something like this.  They are businesspeople.  They would rather make sales than scams.  They are not interested in mining for profit, because what they could get away with really is a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales, at the risk of completely ruining their reputation and bankrupting themselves... it is not worth it.  Some people do not see it this way, but I don't see any viable and productive means of them mining any significant portion of Bitcoin and getting away with it, and for that reason, I believe them when they say they won't.

I thought *I* was an optimist. I admire your spirit sir. I'm getting nervous with bASIC and they don't have BFL's questionable history.

[bitmar]

I will admit, I am a natural optimist.

No proof of the venture capitalist, but I have no reason not to trust BFL at their word (despite what other people claim of them).

Ok, I will agree there is SOME risk.  There's also risk I could die on the way to work tomorrow.  Both are negligible risks, IMO.

I don't believe BFL would lie about something like this.  They are businesspeople.  They would rather make sales than scams.  They are not interested in mining for profit, because what they could get away with really is a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales, at the risk of completely ruining their reputation and bankrupting themselves... it is not worth it.  Some people do not see it this way, but I don't see any viable and productive means of them mining any significant portion of Bitcoin and getting away with it, and for that reason, I believe them when they say they won't.

They can start mining a month after shipping. No one will recognize that they are mining, it will be too much confusion. They have ASIC technology and access to very low-cost ASIC chips (for free - with the customers money lol ) The problem is that with the money from the sale of 60GH they can produce ~ 600GH.  BFL is a company and they have to make money, why would they not do that?

Daily comes ~3500BTC = ~ $ 42,000 / per day = $ 1,260,000 per month - its not "a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales".

[Syke]

I don't believe BFL would lie about something like this.  They are businesspeople.

They have every reason to lie. As long as no other ASICs are shipping, they will keep stringing you along with "real soon now" so that they keep your money. One of their company owners is a convicted felon. Their lies have been quite successful. They've tied up customer funds for 6 months. They claim to be "venture funded", but refuse to publish who the venture capitalist is so that you can't prove they're lying about it. And on and on and on.

[SgtSpike]

I will admit, I am a natural optimist.

No proof of the venture capitalist, but I have no reason not to trust BFL at their word (despite what other people claim of them).

Ok, I will agree there is SOME risk.  There's also risk I could die on the way to work tomorrow.  Both are negligible risks, IMO.

I don't believe BFL would lie about something like this.  They are businesspeople.  They would rather make sales than scams.  They are not interested in mining for profit, because what they could get away with really is a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales, at the risk of completely ruining their reputation and bankrupting themselves... it is not worth it.  Some people do not see it this way, but I don't see any viable and productive means of them mining any significant portion of Bitcoin and getting away with it, and for that reason, I believe them when they say they won't.

They can start mining a month after shipping. No one will recognize that they are mining, it will be too much confusion. They have ASIC technology and access to very low-cost ASIC chips (for free - with the customers money lol ) The problem is that with the money from the sale of 60GH they can produce ~ 600GH.  BFL is a company and they have to make money, why would they not do that?

Daily comes ~3500BTC = ~ $ 42,000 / per day = $ 1,260,000 per month - its not "a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales".

No one will recognize that they are mining until...
- An unsatisfied employee squawks
- A visitor happens to notice
- Suspicious activity is recognized at a pool or particular IP address
- Something else happens (other unknown risk of being discovered)

Now couple that risk with the fact that they wouldn't be able to mine the whole 3500 BTC.  They might be able to mine a few hundred BTC and not be noticed for at least a little while. But what is a few hundred BTC a day?  $3,800?  Over a year, they make less than $1.5M?  Sure, not pennies, but far less than what they have generated in sales thus far, and they're looking at the long-term plan too.  You think they're going to risk tens of millions in future sales (if Bitcoin continues to be successful) for a measly $1.4M in a year?  I just don't see it as a viable business plan, much less an attractive alternative compared to maintaining a solid reputation and continuing sales.

I don't believe BFL would lie about something like this.  They are businesspeople.

They have every reason to lie. As long as no other ASICs are shipping, they will keep stringing you along with "real soon now" so that they keep your money. One of their company owners is a convicted felon. Their lies have been quite successful. They've tied up customer funds for 6 months. They claim to be "venture funded", but refuse to publish who the venture capitalist is so that you can't prove they're lying about it. And on and on and on.

They've not said one lie to me or anyone else (that I have seen).  Everything you and others have tried to conjure up as lies are not actually lies.  They're speculation and conspiracies.

It is POSSIBLE they are lying, sure.  But I don't believe they are.  If you want to believe that, then go right ahead - that is your right.  Looking at it from a rational perspective, they are a small startup company with real-world problems that crop up.  I've worked for such a company before, I know how it is.  The company I worked for was 7 years old and made $50M in sales annually, but still had plenty of issues surrounding being a new company and processes that hadn't yet been perfected, causing delays, etc.  It happens.  Everything I have seen from BFL indicates that they are doing the best they can with what they have to work with.  They have given me NO reason to distrust them whatsoever.

[MeSarah]

They can start mining a month after shipping. No one will recognize that they are mining, it will be too much confusion. They have ASIC technology and access to very low-cost ASIC chips (for free - with the customers money lol ) The problem is that with the money from the sale of 60GH they can produce ~ 600GH.  BFL is a company and they have to make money, why would they not do that?

Daily comes ~3500BTC = ~ $ 42,000 / per day = $ 1,260,000 per month - its not "a small amount of money compared to what they can and will bring in in sales".

Let us look at the landscape. Does BFL have the technology to create a pool for a test net so they may test products before shipping without using the Bitcion proper network? The answer is yes. Sense Josh has written and runs the Eclipse mining pool, BFL indeed does have the technology.

It is more likely that bASIC and Avalon will use the Bitcion proper network for their testing of products prior to shipping.

I will lay odds that when asked if Tom will use the Bitcion proper network he will avoid or ignore the question. I believe Tom will not provide any information regarding testing other than he will be testing. I am convince he does not have the technology to do testing prior to shipping without using the Bitcion proper network.

If Tom uses the Bitcion proper network to test his products prior to shipping is that theft? Maybe not on a legal level but certainly on a moral level. Maybe the question should be raised, should Tom get a scammer tag? I suppose I'll leave that for another day and another thread.

[SAC]

I will lay odds that when asked if Tom will use the Bitcion proper network he will avoid or ignore the question. I believe Tom will not provide any information regarding testing other than he will be testing. I am convince he does not have the technology to do testing prior to shipping without using the Bitcion proper network.

If Tom uses the Bitcion proper network to test his products prior to shipping is that theft? Maybe not on a legal level but certainly on a moral level. Maybe the question should be raised, should Tom get a scammer tag? I suppose I'll leave that for another day and another thread.

What kind of odds? May as well some free money from your verbal diarrhea...

[Bogart]

This has already been discussed.

All 3 of the above-mentioned makers have publicly stated that they will not test the devices by mining on MainNet, and will instead use testnet-in-a-box or something similar.

The exception being a brief demonstration planned by Avalon to take place on some well-known pool, to show their product in action.

[Unacceptable]

Pretty sad  

I've been reading over at bASIC's thread,alot of refunds going out,why  

How many refunds have been given,any idea  

I really wish Tom all the best & hope he gets his product out soon  

Even if BFL delays again,I still won't look for a refund,I'm riding this till the end  

[bitmar]

No one will recognize that they are mining until...
- An unsatisfied employee squawks
- A visitor happens to notice
- Suspicious activity is recognized at a pool or particular IP address
- Something else happens (other unknown risk of being discovered)

Now couple that risk with the fact that they wouldn't be able to mine the whole 3500 BTC.  They might be able to mine a few hundred BTC and not be noticed for at least a little while. But what is a few hundred BTC a day?  $3,800?  Over a year, they make less than $1.5M?  Sure, not pennies, but far less than what they have generated in sales thus far, and they're looking at the long-term plan too.  You think they're going to risk tens of millions in future sales (if Bitcoin continues to be successful) for a measly $1.4M in a year?  I just don't see it as a viable business plan, much less an attractive alternative compared to maintaining a solid reputation and continuing sales.

Anonymous mining is not a problem. As for the rest you're right (An unsatisfied employee squawks, A visitor happens to notice). If the sale is more profitable than mining , what is the point to buy ASIC .  If they will have more profit from sale than from mining its means that mining is unprofitable! If people will buy  ASIC for $ 10 million they count on fast ROI (10million $), If a company sold $ 10 million worth ASIC, earns ~ $ 5 million. Who earns more, the people or ASIC company? If a company have already ASIC technology and access to very low-cost chips (all for free, with money customers), have reached  goal and no longer need customers in the future. They already have or will have from mining the funds for the second-generation ASIC and will earn more from mining. It is not possible to make more money by selling money-producing machine (assuming that these machines have a fast and reliable ROI) than using these machines . Someone always has to lose to another may gain, "Money Does not Come from Nothing" !!!

They can do two things at once, sell and mining (additional profit). Is it just a rumor that the BFL / Inaba has big FPGA mine ?

[loshia]

Pretty sad  

I've been reading over at bASIC's thread,alot of refunds going out,why  

How many refunds have been given,any idea  

I really wish Tom all the best & hope he gets his product out soon  

Even if BFL delays again,I still won't look for a refund,I'm riding this till the end  

Refunds are not going out because of Tom or anything related to him. I think that community just realized that whole "ASIC" story will end for miners in LONG ROI if it happens at all. And when they see that they are not having the advantage to mine for a month or two alone, they are using the delay for the reason to ask for refund. We shall expect a lot of refunds to happen to the other companies also these days if the customers has the right to ask for them of course.