Long term OIL

[deisik]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

Not quite so. Even if the battery capacity gets increased 100 times (i.e. 2 orders of magnitude), you would just recharge your car less often. Say, once in a month or so. Why? Because today's electric cars are "light-weight" (or just borderline) versions of what people usually drive there (all those minivans, SUVs and other greedy beasts)...

And you would most certainly drive more in terms of mileage

[deisik]

I think fusion might actually not be that far out, only a few decades or so before they're starting to be rolled out like nuclear power plants around the globe. All that we need is a working reactor and there will be nearly infinite energy available for everyone

There are two major problems with electricity, and note, production is not one of them. The first one is that you can't efficiently store electricity, and the second you can't efficiently transmit it...

Now think oil

[JosNekoKopa]

There are two major problems with electricity, and note, production is not one of them. The first one is that you can't efficiently store electricity, and the second you can't efficiently transmit it...

Now think oil

Yes i didn't thought about this one.

So there are many problems if you relying only on electric energy.
This can mean we need many new different sources of energy that can replace oil.
We are far from final solution.

[MedaR]

There are two major problems with electricity, and note, production is not one of them. The first one is that you can't efficiently store electricity, and the second you can't efficiently transmit it...

Now think oil

I don't see storage of electricity as such problem.
You can sell it and buy it from neighbours, if you have problem with river water level
(if depend on electricity from hydropower plants) same story is for solar energy.
You only need potential energy, there is no need for storing it.

[criptix]

Storing and Transmission... that would only a problem today if you wanted to build a solar field in the desert for the whole world rofl.
Please dont take the USA or some east european or asian nations as example for a working network grid.

Look at the EU especially western and southern europe for an intelligent grid.

[bryant.coleman]

Saudi Arabia flooding the market to stop the new shale oil industry. (Maybe the US allowing production increases to mess with Russia's economy).

Brent crude is trading at $36.89 per barrel right now, and not many shale oil producers will be affected if the price remains stable at this point. During the past few years, there was a lot of advancement in the shale oil extraction technology, and most of the rigs are profitable even at $30 per barrel for Brent crude (depending on the type of crude oil they produce).

Note: Brent crude price of $30 per barrel would mean a price of around $20+ per barrel for ND Light Sweet and WB Mixed Sweet, and around $25 per barrel for WTI. Even North Dakota Sour might be able to fetch more than $5 per barrel.

[Barnabe]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

Not quite so. Even if the battery capacity gets increased 100 times (i.e. 2 orders of magnitude), you would just recharge your car less often. Say, once in a month or so. Why? Because today's electric cars are "light-weight" (or just borderline) versions of what people usually drive there (all those minivans, SUVs and other greedy beasts)...

And you would most certainly drive more in terms of mileage

Some electric cars have 200 miles of electric charge.
2 orders of magnitude you would only need to charge it 5 times in the cars' lifetime (20'000 * 5 = 100'000 miles)
3 orders of magnitude would mean that the car is able to drive 200'000 miles 

The batteries will get better, but not this much. I think we already are approching theoretical limits quickly so even one order of magnitude is vers unlikely.

[expert4knowledge]

The amount of active rigs has reached the amount from 2009. The daily production in 2009 was 1/3 of the current production. If everything is going to get normalized then the production has to fall to this level again.

So this may lead to get this conclusion that if the production becomes one third of now then price may increase.

[tyz]

Newest US oil inventory report from today. Only a few million barrels away from maximal storage capacity.

"The U.S. government said crude inventories rose by 10.4 million barrels to a record high 518 million during the week to Feb. 26."

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0W4044

[STT]

I think fusion might actually not be that far out, only a few decades or so before they're starting to be rolled out like nuclear power plants around the globe. All that we need is a working reactor and there will be nearly infinite energy available for everyone

There are two major problems with electricity, and note, production is not one of them. The first one is that you can't efficiently store electricity, and the second you can't efficiently transmit it...

Now think oil

Oil has a lower calorific content then coal which China uses extensively, probably explains a bias to electric cars which can be feed by a coal power station or their large hydro dam.   China is not able to produce oil so it becomes a national security liability to have too much demand, USA however produces more then Saudia Arabia but not as cheaply; so that security of supply will always be good despite price concerns.

India also has little oil, a massively growing nation more so then China even.  This indicates oil demand will rise long term, not much more then a few years ago 30% of India was living on less then a dollar a day.  The smallest amounts of progress for so many represents giant amounts of demand on the worlds supply.
Saudi themselves have growth and rising demand for fuel, to sell at this price is still a profit (vs usa where it often isnt) however the country runs a large budget requiring far more income then oil provides at this price.   Put that supply factor and rising demand together, price should rise.  Saudi will exhaust sovereign reserves in 3 years, of course they can borrow but its some indication I think

[deisik]

The batteries will get better, but not this much. I think we already are approching theoretical limits quickly so even one order of magnitude is vers unlikely.

Yeah, the reversible chemical reactions (which make the recharging possible) won't give us much. But ultimately, there are no theoretical limits beyond what nature imposes overall, that is e=mc^2 (as we know it, at least). The best fusion reactions produce pure electricity (in the form of positively charged protons), which is only 2 orders of magnitude worse than the total annihilation of matter. And this is what will make an electric car essentially run forever, until it literally breaks apart...

Or blows up wiping away the neighborhood, lol

[criptix]

The batteries will get better, but not this much. I think we already are approching theoretical limits quickly so even one order of magnitude is vers unlikely.

Yeah, the reversible chemical reactions (which make the recharging possible) won't give us much. But ultimately, there are no theoretical limits beyond what nature imposes overall, that is e=mc^2 (as we know it, at least). The best fusion reactions produce pure electricity (in the form of positively charged protons), which is only 2 orders of magnitude worse than the total annihilation of matter. And this is what will make an electric car essentially run forever, until it literally breaks apart...

Or blows up wiping away the neighborhood, lol

Translation:

I got no clue what im saying so i will try to change the topic and add domething scientific to sound intelligent.

Forum is quite the cancer lately.
God jeez 30.000-300.000 miles batteries omg.

[Zeke2345]

You guys watching Brazil fall apart with the oil prices being what they are? Was not to long ago it was looking like a shining star and people stuck money there in the real estate. Funny how these things change due to one commodity.

Oils been climbing recently and not sure whats really pushing it that is sustainable.

[deisik]

You guys watching Brazil fall apart with the oil prices being what they are? Was not to long ago it was looking like a shining star and people stuck money there in the real estate. Funny how these things change due to one commodity.

Oils been climbing recently and not sure whats really pushing it that is sustainable.

Speculation and profiteering, short squeezes and bull traps

[STT]

 icing on the cake, the price is only back to the year start which is very low.

Or blows up wiping away the neighborhood, lol

Translation:

I got no clue what im saying

God jeez 30.000-300.000 miles batteries omg.

Fusion power is safe and cant fail in the same way as present nuclear reactors so far as I know.    

Technology has an exponential nature but Ive heard nothing of 300k miles but at some point in future who knows.   The bearings and other parts would give way first, maybe a bullet train powered by this would literally be long lasting as its without friction ?

[jaysabi]

The amount of active rigs has reached the amount from 2009. The daily production in 2009 was 1/3 of the current production. If everything is going to get normalized then the production has to fall to this level again.

This is just with respect to US production, correct? The supply side is one aspect. What we are all seeing is the effect of the demand side, given that expected offtake from global growth is not happening.

Oil consumption is pretty steady and predictable on a global level. The current price issue is supply-side.

[jaysabi]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

If was so easy to improve battery technology by orders of magnitude, we would be seeing it incrementally over time on a scale similar to Moore's Law and computing. But battery technology doesn't make those types of leaps.

[STT]

The amount of active rigs has reached the amount from 2009. The daily production in 2009 was 1/3 of the current production. If everything is going to get normalized then the production has to fall to this level again.

This is just with respect to US production, correct? The supply side is one aspect. What we are all seeing is the effect of the demand side, given that expected offtake from global growth is not happening.

Oil consumption is pretty steady and predictable on a global level. The current price issue is supply-side.

Exactly what Im thinking, USA could reduce its supply and it does produce more then Saudi Arabia which is incredible to me but it also consumes a ton more.  So even if USA reduced, there is so much supply that other countries would just take up the slack and its possible price would not adjust.

Its kinda funny that is so much the opposite of peak oil that people harped on for years.  I still think $200 oil will happen, which is totally silly to say now but it'll happen due to dollar weakness and also eventually growth will recover and demand.   Oil consumption is still rising year on year I believe but world growth is not as fast as it could be, think I read 10% of china still lives on under a dollar a day which is more maybe double the people of the UK.  Thats alot of demand missing that could be there and isnt

[bryant.coleman]

Exactly what Im thinking, USA could reduce its supply and it does produce more then Saudi Arabia which is incredible to me but it also consumes a ton more.  So even if USA reduced, there is so much supply that other countries would just take up the slack and its possible price would not adjust.

The United States crude oil production will increase exponentially post-2017, after remaining at stable levels until then. New exploration and drilling projects are proceeding without much of a hiccup. If the oil remains at $35 to $40 levels, then the vast majority of the crude producers will be able to rake in good profits as well.

[Barnabe]

Exactly what Im thinking, USA could reduce its supply and it does produce more then Saudi Arabia which is incredible to me but it also consumes a ton more.  So even if USA reduced, there is so much supply that other countries would just take up the slack and its possible price would not adjust.

The United States crude oil production will increase exponentially post-2017, after remaining at stable levels until then. New exploration and drilling projects are proceeding without much of a hiccup. If the oil remains at $35 to $40 levels, then the vast majority of the crude producers will be able to rake in good profits as well.

Conventional oil may give profits, but shale oil is much more expensive to drill so the increase may not be as big as you seem to think.