Yet another analyst :)

[starsoccer9]

Very weak volume suggests bullish position to be dangerous.

There could be a bit more upside or some consolidation, but the hell dozen of resistances... sma200, upper weekly bb, middle daily bb and tons of others. 

Long term we will retest $266. These short term updates are meaningless.

Quote me on this as we will likely retest $266 by year end.

Sell now before its too late to profit. Lol

Sorry gonna have to disagree. We will retest 266 before the end may most likely, if not then 100% before june19th.

[BitPirate]

I don't get the comments about weak volumes.  Volumes look high to me. Compare them to before the crash.

[smoothie]

Very weak volume suggests bullish position to be dangerous.

There could be a bit more upside or some consolidation, but the hell dozen of resistances... sma200, upper weekly bb, middle daily bb and tons of others. 

Long term we will retest $266. These short term updates are meaningless.

Quote me on this as we will likely retest $266 by year end.

Sell now before its too late to profit. Lol

Sorry gonna have to disagree. We will retest 266 before the end may most likely, if not then 100% before june19th.

Lol ok that works too

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

ya there is a chance it will crash in a bit but there is a chance for everything. I think this one Lucif is wrong. I see it going to one 150 steady by the end of the month we will see a few dips and then a good amount of support at 150 for about a week then a few spikes up and by end of may will see it break 200. then dip to 170 for a week or so and then build support for another week and then 210 will be the steady amount for about a month. with more press and more support we will break the ath by mid summer and see it go 550-800 till another crash to 250. with bull traps and stabilize at 200. that is the year in review. of 2013


now that is a bold prediction.

[wonkytonky]

Very weak volume suggests bullish position to be dangerous.

There could be a bit more upside or some consolidation, but the hell dozen of resistances... sma200, upper weekly bb, middle daily bb and tons of others.  

Long term we will retest $266. These short term updates are meaningless.

Quote me on this as we will likely retest $266 by year end.

Sell now before its too late to profit. Lol

Sorry gonna have to disagree. We will retest 266 before the end may most likely, if not then 100% before june19th.

Lol ok that works too

been following lucif for some time now..  he has been wrong so many times.. it's realy funny to watch ..  

edit: 150 stable next week.   or at least 130 stable..   and i dont know anything about trading..  its just a feeling.. and i have been makeing profits since begin 2012

[Gatekeeper]

this really is set up to be an epic fail on Lucif's part, but then i guess you could just add it to all the other things he has got wrong.

[BillboTor]

Why is it a fail? He's analysing data and giving his take on things. Never said he was going to be correct everytime he makes a prediction.... The stuff this guy comes out with greatly helps me when making my decisions on to buy or sell and I trust his analysis more then anyone else on this forum tbh.

Even the weatherman isn't 100% correct with all the data he has at his disposal. Give the guy some credit.

[Gatekeeper]

lol, anyone can make a claim endless times, be wrong endless times and eventually get something right, if you trade based on Lucif's info then you are an epic fail as well.

[smoothie]

lol, anyone can make a claim endless times, be wrong endless times and eventually get something right, if you trade based on Lucif's info then you are an epic fail as well.

+1

[michaelGedi]

Why is it a fail? He's analysing data and giving his take on things. Never said he was going to be correct everytime he makes a prediction.... The stuff this guy comes out with greatly helps me when making my decisions on to buy or sell and I trust his analysis more then anyone else on this forum tbh.

Even the weatherman isn't 100% correct with all the data he has at his disposal. Give the guy some credit.

+1

The data helps make guided decisions.

In my limited experience the figures don't account for emotion. Therefore, I would argue that if you combine a healthy dose of TA with a healthy dose of emotional analysis of the market - you might be on to something.

[wobber]

I really like people that take data, interpret it to their best and then share without saying THIS WILL HAPPEN. Just present what THEY think the outcome is.

Did lucif said anywhere: "follow me, sheeps, 'cause this will happen next!" ?

[lucif]

Howdy. Did you miss me?  I really tired from rally off 9.77 low, so I decided keep away from daily trading during this drop/correction or whatever.

But here is another bunch of information. But, for first - disclaimer.

To newcomers: I don't give advices. This information is thrown away by me only to take a look at it from 3rd person and make right decision. I don't share my decisions, except rare case of quit from rally at $250 as it was high emotional background and i couldn't take anymore. So none of anything above or below can be considered as trading advice. It just a bunch of info to take look at when I make decision.

Bulls. Good news is that price is about to close above weekly BB.



Like I said at beginning of april, bullish resolution should looks like that



Bears. However I still considering daily zigzag to $40 can be in development.



And very pronounced, almost linear volume divergence.



Neutral. Price trying to escape from negative deviation zone which is bordered by daily 20 sma. Lets see whether it will.



And also from envelops. Current level is highly important for further prediction.

[lucif]

However candle pattern is very similar to 2011. At that time correction candle also closed above BB.

Green soldier + shooting star + doji.

2011


now

[lucif]

So. Unless it will close success above daily BB and survives there for couple of candles, my sentiment is like that

[BrightAnarchist]

It might hold up for a few more days... Friday's A/D on the s&p was quite strong

But i agree longer term this is a bear rally

[Digigami]

I don't know much about any forms of chart analysis, but I have been following this thread for a while and enjoying the information, and discussion very much!

This question came to me after Lucif's last update, and then immediately remembering how many people were shouting "dead cat bounce" after the first crash from the 30+ ATH last year whenever the market had some large oscillations. To those of you who look at these charts all the time, in your experience how many times have you seen something like the first "bubble" and then what looks to be a "dead cat bounce" followed by gradual recovery and then another huge upswing?

Basically, I was always under the impression that a bubble followed by d.c.b. is always followed by death, and that the recovery and second large movement basically rules out the suggested death. In which case we just had an excessive rally, and partial correction hopefully both being respectively somewhat higher and lower than where the market overall wants to be right now.

That's at least my inexperienced view on things as we stand now. 

[zby]

Google trends confirms that the interest in bitcoin has peaked.

[just1nmc]

Google trends confirms that the interest in bitcoin has peaked.

For now, yes. But it's still higher than all of March, where most of the growth occurred. If it sustained the amount of interest at that peak the price would skyrocket.

[bitcoinBull]

To those of you who look at these charts all the time, in your experience how many times have you seen something like the first "bubble" and then what looks to be a "dead cat bounce" followed by gradual recovery and then another huge upswing?

Um, only one other time? The one you are talking about, the 2011 bubble, is obviously the closest comparison we have to choose from. So yea, it happened twice, I would expect something similar to happen again. Though in 2011 it took some 18 months to make the full retracement to $2 (to just higher than the $1/$1.10 previous top), today in 2013 the full retracement to $50 (just higher than the $32/$30 previous top) obviously happened much quicker (assuming $50 was bottom).

But regardless, who could know, for sure, what would happen this time? Or even what is likely? For a player big enough to come in and control a significant portion of the market, they would have to be sure that they can get players to follow who are even bigger.

By the way, I only call the immediate bounces after crashes "dead cat bounce". Upward movements that break a downward trend are something else. They are reversals, like bitcoin got at $2. There are also just upward volatility bursts, which is what what we would have called the bounce up from $2 if it had turned back down at $10 or $20 instead of making an all-time-high at $32. So you can't truly know the difference between a long-term trend reversal and an upward volatility burst, until it continues on to set new highs.

Look at the conventional markets. Stocks have bubbles, corrections, and then growth cycles which follow. The ones which don't have subsequent growth cycles, they get kicked off the NYSE and go to the OTCBB, become penny stocks, and (usually) die.

Google trends confirms that the interest in bitcoin has peaked.

Yes, but how do you know that was a short-term peak or a mid/long-term peak? A growing price will drive more news and interest. Its hard to say which direction the market will play out, it could happen in 2 months or it could take 2 years. The closest example we have for comparison is the one other example in bitcoin history, the 2011-2013 example.

[lucif]

Gox down for 2 hours. Looks like they do it each time of plunge. But we know the truth from other exchanges

btce


bitstamp