Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

I found that they really interested in bubble growth. They do their best to not allow panic sells.

[starsoccer9]

as soon as gox goes back up people are just gonna buy a bunch from btc-e and bitstamp and sell at mtgox till we even out.

[samson]

Looks like they do it each time of plunge.

I like your drawings, but LOL at this comment.

He's right though !

[lucif]

as soon as gox goes back up people are just gonna buy a bunch from btc-e and bitstamp and sell at mtgox till we even out.

nope. gox codes don't work anymore to return fiat back where coins were bought.

[just1nmc]

I found that they really interested in bubble growth. They do their best to not allow panic sells.

They are exacerbating the sell offs with their shitty service... not the other way around.

+1

The price wasn't decreasing. The only reason it will decrease now is because of panic. The low volume exchanges make people think gox will follow and go down in price, so it does.

Bubble or not, gox creates more selling then there would be otherwise.

[lucif]

Panic? Hehe. Two valued exchanges were suffered from bank attack.

I am surprised that panic wave delayed.

[lucif]

Hourly SMA50, the base of rallies since first $50 hit, failing to hold. And zigzags... They are everywhere.



As well as daily sma20, the border of bollinger negative territory. No breakout.

[Viceroy]

Panic? Hehe. Two valued exchanges were suffered from bank attack.

I am surprised that panic wave delayed.

WOOT, more cheeeep coinzzez!!!!

[lucif]

Hehe

[xorglub]

TA does not account for external events, like DDoSes or Gox playing up.

However, do you see the last 2 day's price action as a double top reversal ?

[lucif]

TA does account everything. Good eyes to read required.

I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.

In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.

[Viceroy]

He said "here she comes, sell sell sell" but he will confirm later.

[samson]

TA does account everything. Good eyes to read required.

I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.

In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.

Lucif, I appreciate your posts and it's obvious you put  alot of work into them.

I'm a little confused by something though.

You say a 'break down of $50 should happen', what does this mean ?

Is it a reduction from the current price by $50 suggesting a target of $70 based on the current price of approximately $120 or a 'breakdown' back to the $50 'double bottom' we saw this week ?

[ThickAsThieves]

While I am anticipating a break in the price, I think speculation is still too strong to get us down to 50, or even 60 this time. It would take some severe dumping to get us there.


If we DO touch 50, things could get even uglier.

[lucif]

You say a 'break down of $50 should happen', what does this mean ?

It does mean that correction very oftenly, if not said, always, walk on wave 3 territory, which is below $50 USD/BTC.

[lucif]

However porn for bulls should look like that

[BrightAnarchist]

However porn for bulls should look like that

It could happen... We have positive seasonals until early may

But i agree $50 will certainly be broken in the next decline, whenever that begins. IMO once the PPI hits strongly negative territory and USD deflation really heats up we're going to see some awesome fireworks across many markets, and this will be very profitable for those on the right side of things.

I'm still holding short on the sp500, so far that position has worked out very well. Btw I finally ran a real multi-year correlation study on sp500 and bitcoin in bloomberg software and it came out positive... No surprise here as that's exactly what I've noticed since the earliest days of bitcoin (yet for some reason people argued angrily against the notion that stocks and bitcoin could possibly be correlated! I'll give you a hint though: they are because they're both risk assets and are driven by the same social cycles of greed and fear. It's all psychology...)

I need to rerun it though on detrended data

Enjoy,
BA

[lucif]

divergences

[Manticore]

I found that they really interested in bubble growth. They do their best to not allow panic sells.

Exactly.

[Manticore]

I'm still holding short on the sp500, so far that position has worked out very well. Btw I finally ran a real multi-year correlation study on sp500 and bitcoin in bloomberg software and it came out positive... No surprise here as that's exactly what I've noticed since the earliest days of bitcoin (yet for some reason people argued angrily against the notion that stocks and bitcoin could possibly be correlated! I'll give you a hint though: they are because they're both risk assets and are driven by the same social cycles of greed and fear. It's all psychology...)

I need to rerun it though on detrended data

Enjoy,
BA

Very interesting. I assumed it was non-correlated but I can see that there are reasons that it would be correlated. Can I ask you what level of positive correlation you found? I have been meaning to do this but haven't found time to manually account for monthly BTC time series.