BrightAnarchist
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April 22, 2013, 08:15:40 PM |
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Very interesting. I assumed it was non-correlated but I can see that there are reasons that it would be correlated. Can I ask you what level of positive correlation you found? I have been meaning to do this but haven't found time to manually account for monthly BTC time series.
on log scale I get 0.8302335879 as the correlation coefficient, which is pretty decent |
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"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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Manticore
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April 22, 2013, 08:26:09 PM
Last edit: April 23, 2013, 12:16:22 AM by Manticore |
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on log scale I get 0.8302335879 as the correlation coefficient, which is pretty decent
That's an extremely high correlation......ridiculously high. Wow. |
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myself
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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April 22, 2013, 10:43:39 PM |
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more jpg less text  |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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BrightAnarchist
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April 23, 2013, 10:22:57 AM |
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on log scale I get 0.8302335879 as the correlation coefficient, which is pretty decent
That's an extremely high correlation......ridiculously high. Wow. Yep. That's what I keep telling people, but nobody gets it: Bitcoin is a risk asset. It's not a deflation hedge and an inflation hedge at the same time. It cannot be both. I heard the same arguments about gold but it's finally really starting to crack with the emerging deflationary pressures. It "sounds logical" that Bitcoin would be a disaster hedge, but actual historical trading activity clearly identifies it as a risk asset. That's why it broke out in a parabolic move as stocks made record highs, not while stocks were falling - i.e. people buy bitcoins when they're euphoric, not when they're fearful Bear rally in progress now in both markets IMO... this likely will go higher but the point here is that it should eventually end without making a new ATH in either market. Positive seasonals have been kicking in. Futures down 5 point atm but it seems unlikely that the push higher is over quite yet as the retracement on the spx has been too small. Proly a good opportunity to get more shorts on will present itself soon, and we have a nice ATH to use as a stop level The next move down in the spx should be much bigger, and my assumption here is that bitcoin will go down with it. This is just the very, very beginning. We have so much furthur down to go |
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smoothie
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April 23, 2013, 10:31:20 AM |
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Big time price manipulation is happening guys. By my estimation everything will crumble sometime between now and if price hits 101.
Just a typical bear market rally Yes... the fact that you know its a bear rally makes you wanna profit it :p Amazing that just days after a parabolic move followed by an 80% crash people are already getting euphoric again about Bitcoin with the recent retracement. I've been around Bitcoin since its inception, and I've watched the psychological shifts. If this truely was a new bull market, nobody would be euphoric about it... It's going to take one hell of a rout to get back to those conditions That's why they say bull markets climb a wall of worry, and bear markets slide down a slope of hope Back in the day, your intuition based on FORUM sentiment was 100% spot on. As bitcoin grows, I bet you more than 50% of the users do not post or know about bitcointalk.org. Hence your indicator has now become dilluted. Possibly even worthless at this point to predict market moves based on "bulls being euphoric". |
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lucif (OP)
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Clown prophet
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April 23, 2013, 10:36:26 AM |
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Daily MACD heavy resistance area (past bullish rally macd bounce levels). SMA20 tanking like a boss (blue).  |
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Gatekeeper
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April 23, 2013, 01:13:34 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol  |
(1470) <KLYE> But I was far too drunk to fuck a midget
(1470) <KLYE> I will fuck a chicken for 250 btc
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samson
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April 23, 2013, 01:16:27 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol I wouldn't rule it out. I bet you said that two weeks ago. |
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smoothie
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April 23, 2013, 01:18:10 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol I wouldn't rule it out. I bet you said that two weeks ago. Don't make me laugh...wait...please make me laugh harder!  |
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
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lucif (OP)
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April 23, 2013, 01:20:53 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol Impatient meat... Wait some time =) |
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smoothie
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April 23, 2013, 01:21:40 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol Impatient meat... Wait some time =) Yes wait...lol.... Hope you got lots of time. |
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS.
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JimiQ84
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April 23, 2013, 01:23:03 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol Impatient meat... Wait some time =) Yes wait...lol.... Hope you got lots of time. I am looking forward to $30-$50 per mBTC in near future  |
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smoothie
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April 23, 2013, 01:24:06 PM |
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So when are we going to hit $30-$50 then Lucif? lol Impatient meat... Wait some time =) Yes wait...lol.... Hope you got lots of time. I am looking forward to $30-$50 per mBTC in near future Now that is something I can look forward to. Perhaps Lucif meant this. lol |
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS.
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Uglux
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April 23, 2013, 01:31:46 PM |
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This will happen at $50 again.
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Gatekeeper
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April 23, 2013, 01:42:09 PM |
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Nice 38.2% hit. I think next would be following  What is the grey line that goes from $265 top to projected $49? Is there a second price that defines that line other than the top? according to you lucif and according to your painting skills we should have already gone back down under $50 |
(1470) <KLYE> But I was far too drunk to fuck a midget
(1470) <KLYE> I will fuck a chicken for 250 btc
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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April 23, 2013, 01:45:50 PM |
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Nice 38.2% hit. I think next would be following What is the grey line that goes from $265 top to projected $49? Is there a second price that defines that line other than the top? according to you lucif and according to your painting skills we should have already gone back down under $50 lol of course he won't admit this... |
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SkRRJyTC
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April 23, 2013, 01:47:58 PM |
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Nice 38.2% hit. I think next would be following What is the grey line that goes from $265 top to projected $49? Is there a second price that defines that line other than the top? according to you lucif and according to your painting skills we should have already gone back down under $50 lol of course he won't admit this... You guys know those big red directional arrows only indicate the next larger wave or trend direction right? Its not a path the price is expected to take, its just the direction. Price movement > time. |
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siulynot
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April 23, 2013, 01:53:50 PM |
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All i see here are a bunch of haters that by their lack of understanding on TA and trading just love to troll.
If lucif is not a good analyst, dont read him. Taking time to come to this thread and troll is just an indicator of how butthurt you are and how stupid fanatics can get.
Dont waste your time... troll somewhere else.
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samson
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April 23, 2013, 02:01:41 PM |
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1. Yes I love to troll.
I noticed this, you pop up all over this forum. |
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smoothie
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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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April 23, 2013, 02:03:08 PM |
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1. Yes I love to troll.
I noticed this, you pop up all over this forum. oh yes.  |
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