Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order

[pnbamania]

Also they increased the price of LTC miner? Why?

[1715001770]

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[1715001770]

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[jmc2010]

I have 2 waiting for wire transfer, being shipped to me in New Jersey that I don't need. If you can come up with a plan to take it over let me know

I wonder if Bitmain may be able to help facilitate this, or if we would have to sort it ourselves.  I shot them an e-mail, but it's 11PM over there.   Got any ideas?

[CrypotoCreanis]

I have 2 waiting for wire transfer, being shipped to me in New Jersey that I don't need. If you can come up with a plan to take it over let me know

I wonder if Bitmain may be able to help facilitate this, or if we would have to sort it ourselves.  I shot them an e-mail, but it's 11PM over there.   Got any ideas?

No ideas. I would have to send you the wore transfer instructions, and then I have to upload the proof of payment to them to finalize. I don't think they will change address and I have 2 other pending shipments so I can't risk messing up where they get sent

[pnbamania]

I just paid 46.47$ in TAX to Canada on this.. order (41.12% of the total value). I thought it was like 5-10%

[gogostar]

Also they increased the price of LTC miner? Why?

Probably because shipping date is within 10 days after payment.

Makes me wonder if bitmain is starting to shift their stock because of china ban

[Ma907xB]

I have 2 waiting for wire transfer, being shipped to me in New Jersey that I don't need. If you can come up with a plan to take it over let me know

I wonder if Bitmain may be able to help facilitate this, or if we would have to sort it ourselves.  I shot them an e-mail, but it's 11PM over there.   Got any ideas?

No ideas. I would have to send you the wore transfer instructions, and then I have to upload the proof of payment to them to finalize. I don't think they will change address and I have 2 other pending shipments so I can't risk messing up where they get sent

Send me a PM i think i may be able to help. I'm located in NY.

[rizla.plus]

I know I’ve said it yesterday but I’ll repeat it again today: Unless I am missing something, this is just crazy!

I really can’t see why you would buy an S9 now, the total bitcoin network hashrate is growing faster than ever, so unless BTC value surges again (massively) this year you just won’t get your money back on your investment.
The only money to be made now is in selling miners, not in mining!
After a few months of mining I just sold my used 13TH S9 on Ebay for $2600 more than I bought it, I will be putting that profit into Bitcoin. There is no way that an S9 will make another $2600 as of this point in time, unless BTC surges as said before

But don’t just take my word for it, please have a look at the numbers below.



What I’ve done is forecast the total network hashrate for 2018 based on 2017 numbers. I’ve used basic Excel forecasting to do this.
As you can see, I’ve created a forecast, an upper bound forecast (pessimistic in this case) and lower bound forecast (optimistic in this case).
Then I’ve created 3 tables predicting how much Bitcoin one S9 will make every month based on this forecast, how much revenue that is un USD based on the current BTC/USD exchange rate and how much profit you would make based on a $150/month power cost for 1 S9.

Now, based on these numbers the only way an S9 that starts mining today will pay back your investment, is if the network hashrate follows the lower bound (optimistic) forecast which ends up flattening out again, looking at the graph alone that just seems very unlikely!

Both the standard and upper bound forecast predict profit to go negative by the end of the year.

I’m happy to share this spreadsheet with anybody who wants to play with the numbers.
Bottom line,
My bet is: sell your S9’s while you can make a good profit on them, hold BTC and wait for the next opportunity when this madness dies down a bit (or perhaps the next generation of miners?)
Of course, to each their own. Who knows what the bitcoin value will be by the end of the year and that said, you might just enjoy mining, I know I did :-).

[stelee68]

I know I’ve said it yesterday but I’ll repeat it again today: Unless I am missing something, this is just crazy!

I really can’t see why you would buy an S9 now, the total bitcoin network hashrate is growing faster than ever, so unless BTC value surges again (massively) this year you just won’t get your money back on your investment.
The only money to be made now is in selling miners, not in mining!
After a few months of mining I just sold my used 13TH S9 on Ebay for $2600 more than I bought it, I will be putting that profit into Bitcoin. There is no way that an S9 will make another $2600 as of this point in time, unless BTC surges as said before

But don’t just take my word for it, please have a look at the numbers below.



What I’ve done is forecast the total network hashrate for 2018 based on 2017 numbers. I’ve used basic Excel forecasting to do this.
As you can see, I’ve created a forecast, an upper bound forecast (pessimistic in this case) and lower bound forecast (optimistic in this case).
Then I’ve created 3 tables predicting how much Bitcoin one S9 will make every month based on this forecast, how much revenue that is un USD based on the current BTC/USD exchange rate and how much profit you would make based on a $150/month power cost for 1 S9.

Now, based on these numbers the only way an S9 that starts mining today will pay back your investment, is if the network hashrate follows the lower bound (optimistic) forecast which ends up flattening out again, looking at the graph alone that just seems very unlikely!

Both the standard and upper bound forecast predict profit to go negative by the end of the year.

I’m happy to share this spreadsheet with anybody who wants to play with the numbers.
Bottom line,
My bet is: sell your S9’s while you can make a good profit on them, hold BTC and wait for the next opportunity when this madness dies down a bit (or perhaps the next generation of miners?)
Of course, to each their own. Who knows what the bitcoin value will be by the end of the year and that said, you might just enjoy mining, I know I did :-).

I appreciated you sharing your hardwork and your view of the BTC future price. But I think your post should be in speculation section.

Having said that, let me be the first to point out that your graph didn't factor in the banning of mining in China, which is about 70% of global mining population.

[Par Avion]

Has this situation happened before?

What happens when mining isn't profitable? People shut off least profitable miners, diff goes down, and profits come back online for the more efficient miners? S9 may be phased out by q3 or so IF and thats a big if dmint comes online. Small hobby miners and some farms will have to close shop.

[rifleman74]

Has this situation happened before?

What happens when mining isn't profitable? People shut off least profitable miners, diff goes down, and profits come back online for the more efficient miners? S9 may be phased out by q3 or so IF and thats a big if dmint comes online. Small hobby miners and some farms will have to close shop.

Something like that, again there isn't anything better hash-wise than the s9, so people will either have to keep buying more, or turn off the non-efficient miners.   You need that "better miner" to show up before this thing gets going. 

[rizla.plus]

I appreciated you sharing your hardwork and your view of the BTC future price.

Thanks,
But the one thing I did not share was my view on BTC future price, that's just not forecast-able :-)
What I tried to do is predict how much BTC an S9 will make over the coming year and what that will mean to your ROI if you started one up as of today.

But I think your post should be in speculation section.

Perhaps, these numbers are specific for one S9 though.

Having said that, let me be the first to point out that your graph didn't factor in the banning of mining in China, which is about 70% of global mining population.

It would be good if 70% of the world's mining capacity gets taken down permanently, but honestly I think that's wishful thinking.
You might see a few dips on this graph though as it gets moved but I'm not sure it will make much of a difference.

[leowonderful]

Miners do not simply get permanently shut down forever. Nobody leaves machines that make money sitting offline, they'll either be sold and continue hashing again or a farm will shut down temporarily and be moved to another place. Difficulty's swung drastically in the past few months and there have been some instances where difficulty drops may have been attributed to mining farms being moved, etc.

[big al]

I'd second DHL to the Great White North!  BiteMe sent a replacement RMA'd unit via FedEx and it sat in an office for a month...

How much do you pay at delivery?

[rizla.plus]

Has this situation happened before?

Depends where you live, up until very recently mining was only profitable in countries with the cheapest power. That's why they have all the mining power currently.
The only reason mining has all of the sudden become profitable in the rest of the world is because Bitcoin price has grown significantly faster than network hashrate in the last year, but now hashrate is catching up fast and bitcoin price seems to have staggered for now.
The only way it can continue to remain profitable in Western countries with expensive power is if Bitcoin gets another serious price surge to outpace the growing hashrate again,
otherwise it will balance at the point where mining is only just profitable enough for miners in countries with cheap power, as it was before...

What happens when mining isn't profitable? People shut off least profitable miners, diff goes down, and profits come back online for the more efficient miners? S9 may be phased out by q3 or so IF and thats a big if dmint comes online. Small hobby miners and some farms will have to close shop.

As stated above, it's all about whether you have access to cheap power. Older miners become redundant very quickly once new models are available. I doubt S7's are still profitable anywhere.

[Raymond_B]

Telegram just went off, looks like there's a late March batch up for sale.

[krisgt30]

Its a March 20 batch, so same as yesterdays (March11-20 was yesterdays batch). Looks like bitmain wanted to take advantage of the free btc during the dip. I am happy, now have 20 s9s coming through all of march to start phase 1 of my new mining location.

[Raymond_B]

Its a March 20 batch, so same as yesterdays (March11-20 was yesterdays batch). Looks like bitmain wanted to take advantage of the free btc during the dip. I am happy, now have 20 s9s coming through all of march to start phase 1 of my new mining location.

I said late March 'cause they have listed March 21-31. Looks like are staggering them a bit.

[Ilan123]

Just grabbed myself 2 more, I have 7 days to pay

[Druiz287]

I know I’ve said it yesterday but I’ll repeat it again today: Unless I am missing something, this is just crazy!

I really can’t see why you would buy an S9 now, the total bitcoin network hashrate is growing faster than ever, so unless BTC value surges again (massively) this year you just won’t get your money back on your investment.
The only money to be made now is in selling miners, not in mining!
After a few months of mining I just sold my used 13TH S9 on Ebay for $2600 more than I bought it, I will be putting that profit into Bitcoin. There is no way that an S9 will make another $2600 as of this point in time, unless BTC surges as said before

But don’t just take my word for it, please have a look at the numbers below.



What I’ve done is forecast the total network hashrate for 2018 based on 2017 numbers. I’ve used basic Excel forecasting to do this.
As you can see, I’ve created a forecast, an upper bound forecast (pessimistic in this case) and lower bound forecast (optimistic in this case).
Then I’ve created 3 tables predicting how much Bitcoin one S9 will make every month based on this forecast, how much revenue that is un USD based on the current BTC/USD exchange rate and how much profit you would make based on a $150/month power cost for 1 S9.

Now, based on these numbers the only way an S9 that starts mining today will pay back your investment, is if the network hashrate follows the lower bound (optimistic) forecast which ends up flattening out again, looking at the graph alone that just seems very unlikely!

Both the standard and upper bound forecast predict profit to go negative by the end of the year.

I’m happy to share this spreadsheet with anybody who wants to play with the numbers.
Bottom line,
My bet is: sell your S9’s while you can make a good profit on them, hold BTC and wait for the next opportunity when this madness dies down a bit (or perhaps the next generation of miners?)
Of course, to each their own. Who knows what the bitcoin value will be by the end of the year and that said, you might just enjoy mining, I know I did :-).

Thanks for the forecast.  Does this take into account any speculation of the next generation miners that will raise the collective hashrate?  I would love the excel spreadsheet to manipulate some price speculation of my own.

[krisgt30]

What a lot of people don't realize is that there are a ton of variables in determining the profitability of mining bitcoin. Yes the difficulty goes up as total network hashrate goes up, but it isn't guaranteed. Especially with the question of Bitmain moving to Canada and Europe. I am sure they wont let their hash rate fall off a cliff, but we will see what comes of this situation. Also profit calculators don't take into consideration transaction fees included in blocks. This wasn't a big deal back when I was mining in 2015 because tx fees were always fractional, but now that several BTC are included in block rewards, this changes things for the better. I went from one to 7 to 25 personal machines in two years time and hope to triple that number in 2018. If bitcoin mining isn't profitable for you right now, you either aren't using the right miners/the right amount of miners, or are doing something else totally wrong.

Waiting for the next generation of miners is madness because the early batches of s9s made absolutely zero sense to buy as they were going for nearly 5BTC when they first came out. Dont be surprised to see bitmain charge $10k+ for the first batch since companies like whatsminer, canaan and hotmine are charging $2-3k for subpar specs compared to an s9.