BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?

[smoothie]

LOL you're so drove...

Smoothie isn't drove, he's a trove honest troll that calls out bullshit when he sees it!

FTFY 

[BTC4Amazon]

LOL you're so drove...

Smoothie isn't drove, he's a trove honest troll that calls out bullshit when he sees it!

FTFY 

Smoothie man, no disrespect intended but, You remind me of someone who runs one of the conspiracy theory websites lol

Also mind answering what exactly you want to bet about?

[ATC777]

[BTC4Amazon]

Oh, Well Like I said it's a stupid bet to bet against something that has already happened, Unless your going to win.
If your interested in buying that silver back so you can do it again I have maples going for some of the best prices around and a few bars going for spot (Not to get off topic or anything )

[ATC777]

LOL ok... enough, enough, enough... I think it's sad that we let speculation threads devolve into this sort of thing, and here's to hoping we can continue discussing the market without any more of this nonsense...

I'm wondering if we have any users from the EU in here who could shed some light on the current situation in Cyprus and what the implications of this so-called "deal" are for the global banking system and Bitcoin itself?

The Cyprus crisis seems to be one of the more important factors in the "bitcoin mania", and this "deal" could perhaps have some sway.

[jubalix]

atc cannot understand

This is not a stock
A bond
A share
A option

Its a currecny, its not a investment vehicle per se

Rather btc is a reorganisation of society.

A side effect is you wealth may be accrued who ascribe to this new paradgm sooner

It does not obey any analysis you know of or have used. Iron condors, copper crustations or any other psuedo babble you wallow in, come back to me with a physics level proof then i will listen
Even if analysis could be said to work, because anyone that could call event 0.5% consitantly would own the world in 5 years - 10 years.

Furthey the gulf for btc to grow into is all of human historys years of scams wealth dilution by QE etc for the benefit of the banksters....that is trillions upon trillions that are going to be gobbled up by btc or some other crypto.

There is only 2 ways this can go to infinty and beyond or zero.

No one has made an international currecny before, nor one that can be artifficaly manipulated, or the powerfull can just take.

This is a shift in soverignty from the state to the indivdual

[ATC777]

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now... 

Regards,

--ATC--

[smoothie]

blah blah blah...

--ATC--

No you forget that TA doesn't necessarily work with bitcoin. Yes the general market movements (up and down, overprice and underpriced obviously apply)....but your double top double this double that means nothing in a freely traded market.

Most of the charts that you have likely used your TA on are markets that are MANIPULATED or REGULATED.

So no TA doesn't necessarily apply like it does to stocks, bonds, gold, or silver. All of those markets are not FREE MARKETS. There is someone who dictates the price in the general scheme of things by means of a law or a bailout or a bullshit trade, or insider trading etc.

Like I said...keep predicting...you'll end up as PROUDHON VERSION 0.5. 

[BitPirate]

The trouble with technical analysis is that it can only partially work, as a hint to try to understand market sentiment.

If it consistently worked reliably, the markets wouldn't move at all, as everybody would know the tops and the bottoms. It's the same as the uncertainty principle, schrodinger's cat, et al... if it worked, it would have the result of not working.

As such, TA can only give some traders a slight edge -- not much more. And this is in a highly liquid stock market. So, dial down the TA love will you?

The key here is two-fold: (a) you have to get your fundamental analysis right BEFORE you try TA; and (b) you have to recognise what state the market is in.

For (a), I chimed in my thoughts earlier in the thread. I think you really missed the boat on doing a proper analysis of the fundamentals. This makes the TA worthless.

For (b), BTC is a currency, and as such will have a well-defined non-zero floor unless it fails. This floor could be well above where we are now. Yes, the market will be subject to waves of investor confidence, just like any other market. But you have to identify whether this market is still in the bootstrapping phase, or if it is in a steady state. I think you missed the boat here too. You used increasing money flow as indicators to bet against the price. Doesn't make sense for a currency. Do normal people "over-extend" themselves in fiat? Doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if you speculate in, say, Yen -- you're not going to end up with a worthless pile at the end, like you would do with stocks.

Yes, adoption is broadening but I don't construe that as "getting scary" -- the newcomers look to me like Redditors and other reasonably tech-savvy people. There is still a huge sector of the population who we have yet to bring on board. The broader base and the speculation itself really helps drive adoption of BTC as a currency; I see it as a positive feedback loop.

[Sage]

The trouble with technical analysis is that it can only partially work, as a hint to try to understand market sentiment.

If it consistently worked reliably, the markets wouldn't move at all, as everybody would know the tops and the bottoms. It's the same as the uncertainty principle, schrodinger's cat, et al... if it worked, it would have the result of not working.

As such, TA can only give some traders a slight edge -- not much more. And this is in a highly liquid stock market. So, dial down the TA love will you?

The key here is two-fold: (a) you have to get your fundamental analysis right BEFORE you try TA; and (b) you have to recognise what state the market is in.

For (a), I chimed in my thoughts earlier in the thread. I think you really missed the boat on doing a proper analysis of the fundamentals. This makes the TA worthless.

For (b), BTC is a currency, and as such will have a well-defined non-zero floor unless it fails. This floor could be well above where we are now. Yes, the market will be subject to waves of investor confidence, just like any other market. But you have to identify whether this market is still in the bootstrapping phase, or if it is in a steady state. I think you missed the boat here too. You used increasing money flow as indicators to bet against the price. Doesn't make sense for a currency. Do normal people "over-extend" themselves in fiat? Doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if you speculate in, say, Yen -- you're not going to end up with a worthless pile at the end, like you would do with stocks.

Yes, adoption is broadening but I don't construe that as "getting scary" -- the newcomers look to me like Redditors and other reasonably tech-savvy people. There is still a huge sector of the population who we have yet to bring on board. The broader base and the speculation itself really helps drive adoption of BTC as a currency; I see it as a positive feedback loop.

Nice.

As a sage trader taught me, the fundamentals tell you what to trade.  The technicals tell you when to trade. But a truly sage trader doesn't stop at the technicals or fundimentals. They are able to read the psychology of the market that shows itself in the charts.

[ATC777]

Hold onto them britches, boys... It's gonna be a wild ride! 

[proudhon]

Hold onto them britches, boys... It's gonna be a wild ride! 

Good. Now you're doing Bitcointalk Speculation Forum Analysis.

[ATC777]

^ I believe we've gotten too carried away folks... I just hope we haven't shot ourselves in the foot and killed Bitcoin... 

This one prays for a bright future...

[Vladimir]

Oh well. Bears are growling, bulls are mooing. As long as we are not oinking we are all going to be fine.

[ATC777]

Does it work for weather forecast too ?

Because I know people who spend millions of dollars launching satellites, mesuring temperatures all over the world and using giant computers just to tell me if it's gonna rain tomorrow !

If only they knew they just have to look at the chart...

That did not mean any non-financial set of data. But some. I probably should've added the word "some", but figured people were smart enough to realize I wasn't talking about, erm... the weather! 

Give it a try though... who knows! 

[Piper67]

That did not mean any non-financial set of data. But some. I probably should've added the word "some", but figured people were smart enough to realize I wasn't talking about, erm... the weather!  

You may be too young to remember, but not a long time ago meteorologists used to have a frog and they were making their predictions by following - and interpreting - the movement of the frog. They succeeded most of the time because, well, the weather doesn't change so much from one day to the next.

TA does the same kind of predictions. If you just follow the trend you're right most of the time, and when the trends changes you still have 50% of chances to be right also.

Back to bitcoin : the trend today is driven by newcomers trying to get onto the train. It's a fact. It's "fondamental analysis" if you prefer. It will stop one day, but noone can say when nor at what price. Some can make bets, and some will win their bets, but it will only be that they will be more lucky than others.

Don't bother. TA is a religion to these people, and all the evidence in the world won't convince them. I guess all the people who failed to predict catastrophes using TA were just using the wrong kind, or using it in the wrong way, or were just not smart enough... 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Ev'ry so offen one a them technercull anulists come round these parts, but 'for long get run outta town by a bull stampede.

Remember the Arepo.

[Pteppic]

As a matter of interest, what would need to happen before you accept that this particular call was wrong? In the OP, the price mentioned was $71.50 and there is no point selling and buying back for a couple of measly percent.

So how about if the price stays above $60 until the end of next week, say the 5th April? Would you admit that the call was wrong at that point?

[Piper67]

As a matter of interest, what would need to happen before you accept that this particular call was wrong? In the OP, the price mentioned was $71.50 and there is no point selling and buying back for a couple of measly percent.

So how about if the price stays above $60 until the end of next week, say the 5th April? Would you admit that the call was wrong at that point?

That's why it's a religion. If it were a science, it would be falsifiable...

[BrightAnarchist]

I'm sorry, my friend, but it's you who does not understand... and don't feel bad, because you're not alone in having no clue what technical analysis is, how/why it's used and how it works. So I will, again, try to be helpful and explain this in a very simple, easy-to-get fashion not only for your benefit but for the benefit of the community...

Technical analysis does not concern itself with the underlying asset, but instead focuses on the behavior of the human beings buying and selling that asset (and nowadays the bots as well -- which are coded to use TA of all things). It can be anything; a stock, commodities, currency, tulips, real estate, interest rates, money (e.g., gold or silver) and even non-financial sets of data. In fact, I know a doctor who analyzes candlestick charts of his patient's blood-sugar levels and is able to accurately forecast how each patient will respond to different types of food and medication (one of the coolest forms of TA I've ever seen). Interestingly enough, he is also a successful investor. Bitcoin has all of the necessary elements required to use traditional (financial) technical analysis: 1) price 2) it is bought and sold 3) past market data and information.

Technical analysis is sort of a study of "mass psychology"; the psychology of "the crowd". Human beings can behave in very predictable patterns, and often repeat the same behaviors over and over. We are still the same creatures we were 50 years ago, 100 years ago and beyond. And it is unlikely we will change anytime soon. And it is also unlikely that our key "money emotions" (e.g., greed and fear) will be changing anytime soon. Our innate greed pushes us to buy something we believe will bring us pleasure or increase our wealth, and our fear of losing money drives us to sell things before the value decreases causing a material or financial loss.

Where does Bitcoin derive its value? From scarcity? No... there are plenty of things that are unique and scarce which aren't worth anything. I can pick a booger out of my nose that is unlike any other booger ever picked, but I doubt people will be lining up to buy it for thousands of dollars (or even a penny). So if it's not scarcity, what is it? Bitcoin, like all other things, derives its value from our belief in its value. In fact, the concepts of "money" and "value" are abstract concepts our species has invented for the benefit (or as some would argue, to the detriment) of our own society. If you throw a handful of $100 bills into the air in a nightclub people will push, shove and fight to get them... toss a handful of $100 bills into a cage full of cats and they will not be aroused (in fact they might end up urinating on the cash lol). While I share a similar philosophy to jubalix about the evils of central banks, fractional reserve banking and the merits of bitcoin, this absolutely does not exempt bitcoin from the basic social and economic forces that push and pull all things financial; those very things technical analysts care about.

You can look at any bitcoin price chart priced in any currency on any time-frame and you will see a plethora of well-known technical patterns which behaved exactly the same way they have in the past with other financial assets. A BTC/USD chart, for example, is full of patterns like double/triple tops, double/triple bottoms, tombstones, cup & handles, head & shoulders (and inverted h&s), you name it. We can also see the exact same indicators we use on stocks, futures and other assets behaving the same way with Bitcoin as they do with other assets. In fact, the bots trading on MtGox and BTC-E (some of which are making loads of money) are using TA to trigger trades and manage risk.

Technical analysis can work with anything, my friends. Sometimes (in fact, quite often) the analyst is wrong. He/she misses something important, draws the wrong conclusion from the data or makes a bad call... sometimes a major market-moving event occurs that totally changes everything and overrides the factors that were previously in play... But TA is not purely about "right vs wrong". It's about looking for hints, ideas and opportunity... it's about making forecasts and educated guesses rather than making "predictions"... black and white logic does not work here. The great thing about using technical analysis with a good risk management strategy is that you can be wrong more often that you're right and still be highly profitable. TA is a tool, not a religion. And you're a hell of a lot better off with a good toolset than you are blindly stumbling about in the dark and making trading decisions based on philosophical rhetoric or political ideology.

That will be all, for now...  

Regards,

--ATC--

Just to back this guy up, an ex girlfriend of mine that I met at MIT makes hundreds of thousands each year running an algorithmic trading system on her brokerage account that she developed. It's entirely based on TA concepts. Most of the best quant firms (Citadel anyone?) build systems based on TA. New research from academia has confirmed that a simple momentum indicator can be used to outperform the indices consistently. The twitter studies are revolutionary in showing how the public's mood precedes changes in market trends.

So to all the naysayers: stay stubborn and hostile, claim that only fundamentals matter and that crowd psychology does not, but the behavioral finance revolution is happening with or without your understanding.