BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?

[bitcoiners]

It's not trolling, it's carrying the defiant and evasive habits of a child into adulthood in an attempt to save face. Trolling is trying to get a rise out of people. They sometimes look similar, but the intentions are different. I'm cool with people not being fully mature, as long as they are actually trying to add value in the first place, and I think OP sincerely was.

Wow... nice...  But don't get too philosophical. It was smoothie I made that chart for... smoothie...  

So yes, I was sort of "trolling" (hence the troll face) because he's been an asshole since he set foot in this thread. And your own reply I quoted above was an exponentially more cunning and masterful troll post, if I ever saw one. Well done -- I have been out-trolled!  

On a serious note, I think we might break below the $75-$70 range as soon as tonight, and selling will begin to intensify. I'll be looking for some bounciness down below at old S/R levels. Keep an eye on it, because it's about to get interesting.  

Regards,

--ATC--

Agreed, I think the bulls are about to get waxed.  Starting tonight.

[smoothie]

It's not trolling, it's carrying the defiant and evasive habits of a child into adulthood in an attempt to save face. Trolling is trying to get a rise out of people. They sometimes look similar, but the intentions are different. I'm cool with people not being fully mature, as long as they are actually trying to add value in the first place, and I think OP sincerely was.

Wow... nice...  But don't get too philosophical. It was smoothie I made that chart for... smoothie...  

So yes, I was sort of "trolling" (hence the troll face) because he's been an asshole since he set foot in this thread. And your own reply I quoted above was an exponentially more cunning and masterful troll post, if I ever saw one. Well done -- I have been out-trolled!  

On a serious note, I think we might break below the $75-$70 range as soon as tonight, and selling will begin to intensify. I'll be looking for some bounciness down below at old S/R levels. Keep an eye on it, because it's about to get interesting.  

Regards,

--ATC--

No i've been an asshole for much longer than this thread. Dont give yourself that much credit. I stick to the facts, if you don't like it please cry more and sell bit coins at lower prices. I will gladly take your profits/money. 

Your asshole friend,

Smoothie

price will be at $120 next week.. and you'll still find people saying...
let's watch the price go down blah blah blah... there's no winning with this guys, just quit smoothie, they won't admit they are/were wrong...

Why would I stop if I know that i am in their heads. Markets are a psychological game. As far as I can tell the bulls have gotten underneath the skin of all the bears.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Well there has to be a slowdown at some point, otherwise we'll be at $100,000 by Fall 2013, so it doesn't take many balls to call for a correction, even a further correction from this point as we're still above the insanely exponential fast growth path that started in January.

I've reached the point where I more hope the price goes up to quiet these arrogant bears than for the actual profits

[smoothie]

Well there has to be a slowdown at some point, otherwise we'll be at $100,000 by Fall 2013, so it doesn't take many balls to call for a correction, even a further correction from this point as we're still above the insanely exponential fast growth path that started in January.

I've reached the point where I more hope the price goes up to quiet these arrogant bears than for the actual profits

there will be a slowdown, but not regression in price. Corrections are always necessary but the tendency of this currency is to go up and up and up... If you are trigger happy, I suggest you leave the forum, give the exchanges a break and go play fetch with your dog...
Any TA will drive you crazy and for the most part they are incorrect so.. come back in a year (or two) to collect or cry...
that's my approach I've been actually thinking of sell enough to recover my initial investment but I see no point since I don't really care if I lose it at this point and something extremely atrocious will have to happen for btc to lose 1000% overnight...

lose 1000% percent...like -900%?....hmm so around -$900/btc? 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I dunno, a slowdown could take the form of a big temporary drop, just because of Bitcoin volatility, but I'm thinking the $10 million in bids will prevent that.

[ATC777]

LOL so now we're all flip-flopping? 

At least deathcode is gonna stick to his guns haha 

[GeoRW]

I guess there'll be some more dumps below 100 USD, but continuing fiat influx will increase the bid side to the point when it will explode and price will shoot higher. We may not hit 100 next week yet, but with this much of fiat pouring in, it is inevitable. Don't bet on the crash yet 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

LOL so now we're all flip-flopping?  

At least deathcode is gonna stick to his guns haha  

Huh?? Grasping at straws again. I've always expected a short-term correction to happen at some point - it is bound to - but that is NOT a reason to SELL. Think on that for a bit. Just because additional profit is possible is not all by itself a reason to chase it.

[Manticore]

Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general:

If you look closely at the chart you will find that we are actually at the take off phase.
Why?
Because that is the section where the Institutional Investors come in,
and we have had exactly that recently with the first Bitcoin Hedge Fund and the relaunch of Tradehill.

No, now is not the time for 99.99% of institutional investors. Do you know anything about institutional investors and their typical risk appetites?? BTC is exactly the type of investment in which they would never invest. The systematic risk is ridiculous (Mt. Gox, DDoS induced panics, or worse, etc). The liquidity is too low to even register on their radars and they typically do not chase performance. And, quite frankly, money managers in the space would never be fully sold on the concept. No, institutional investors are the most risk averse investors out there, normally seeking only the most stable and consistent returns.

Tradehill and the tiny Malta based hedge fund are using the term 'institutional investors' to add legitimacy to their model. Small hedge funds always target HNWIs and 'institutional investors' in their marketing materials because it sounds good even though many rarely get an institutional client. Selling a fund to institutions is no easy task even when dealing with assets and asset classes that have long histories. They typically only invest with managers who have extensive track records (many, many years) or in assets that have been around for awhile.

The Malta fund is simply a vehicle (and a tiny one, at that) that it is not actively managed and is non-discretionary. They do not have a US based feeder and cannot accept HNWIs from the US. Tradehill has a $10K minimum, which hardly sounds like it's truly directed at institutional clients who typically don't even look at investments that can't handle at least $5 - $10MM (in a single subscription). And the way BTC is so closely held, relatively low volume makes big waves. I like that Tradehill is trying to address this with dark pools, but I am not convinced they have the ability to sell it to 99.99% of institutional investors.

[Manticore]

So we all agree that "take off" has not happened yet and institutional investor are never not even considering Bitcoin just yet.

Or, more likely, may never consider it. I don't even know how one could package a direct investment in BTC. We could probably go all the way to 'New Paradigm!!!' with little to no institutional investment because by the time this reaches (if) this reaches the liquidity level required to allow institutional investors to invest directly, we would have probably gone way past this chart.

Institutional investments in BTC start-ups are very different than direct investments in BTC. I'm not sure we've had either at this point. But I could see investments in VC funds that invest in BTC start-ups coming way before direct investments.

[Manticore]

There is already one tiny hedge fund. Theoretically assuming that they sorted the humongous information security issue, there is no reason why some "funds of funds" could not invest into it and in turn institutional investors would not buy those "funds of funds" and as such indirectly invest into Bitcoin.

On top of that there are other ways I am sure being developed as we speak that would enable mainstream to invest into Bitcoin.

Moreover, would it not be correct to say that we do not know if inst. investors will ever invest into some tyny startup 1B$ market cap company?

As far as I can see your arguments in fact support premise that we are not in institutional investor phase. Whether we will ever get into one or not is a separate matter.

Sure, one of the fund of funds submanagers could use a small portion of their high-risk allocation to invest directly in BTC. Anything is possible. I'm sure there are hedge funds out there that would at least consider going direct. Most institutions would not touch these types of managers even if wrapped in a fund of funds (highly unlikely they would be). FYI I am not equating 'hedge funds' w/institutional investors.

Incorrect to say this ($1B market cap statement) because institutional investors invest in start-ups with no market cap; they do it through very skilled fund managers with long track records (they give the manager $10MM and he disburses to various projects, some small).

Information security, transparency, liquidity, regulatory uncertainty (less uncertain these days).....liquidity is big. Yes, they will invest in highly illiquid assets (timber, for instance...huge with institutions) but to invest in something where the market price moves so erratically at such low volume would make this a non-starter. Transparency is huge. How does one perform due diligence on BTC other than to buy into the media hype that moves the price up with little change in the underlying circumstances (correct me if I'm wrong) Truly....

I came to this forum to learn about BTC followers; I'm bullish on the novel concept. But I find it telling that institutions have not invested in BTC start-ups.....they usually get in early. There are some very savvy people not investing in BTC. Only a few angels thus far (again, correct me if I'm wrong). That speaks volumes to me. I was bullish back in December because I saw more news coming that would push the price up -- but I was never really under the delusion that masses of common everyday people would start using BTC anytime soon. And unless they do, we are in Bubble City. I can say that and still be bullish Bitcoin.....

[deathcode]

There is already one tiny hedge fund. Theoretically assuming that they sorted the humongous information security issue, there is no reason why some "funds of funds" could not invest into it and in turn institutional investors would not buy those "funds of funds" and as such indirectly invest into Bitcoin.

On top of that there are other ways I am sure being developed as we speak that would enable mainstream to invest into Bitcoin.

Moreover, would it not be correct to say that we do not know if inst. investors will ever invest into some tyny startup 1B$ market cap company?

As far as I can see your arguments in fact support premise that we are not in institutional investor phase. Whether we will ever get into one or not is a separate matter.

Sure, one of the fund of funds submanagers could use a small portion of their high-risk allocation to invest directly in BTC. Anything is possible. I'm sure there are hedge funds out there that would at least consider going direct. Most institutions would not touch these types of managers even if wrapped in a fund of funds (highly unlikely they would be). FYI I am not equating 'hedge funds' w/institutional investors.

Incorrect to say this ($1B market cap statement) because institutional investors invest in start-ups with no market cap; they do it through very skilled fund managers with long track records (they give the manager $10MM and he disburses to various projects, some small).

Information security, transparency, liquidity, regulatory uncertainty (less uncertain these days).....liquidity is big. Yes, they will invest in highly illiquid assets (timber, for instance...huge with institutions) but to invest in something where the market price moves so erratically at such low volume would make this a non-starter. Transparency is huge. How does one perform due diligence on BTC other than to buy into the media hype that moves the price up with little change in the underlying circumstances (correct me if I'm wrong) Truly....

I came to this forum to learn about BTC followers; I'm bullish on the novel concept. But I find it telling that institutions have not invested in BTC start-ups.....they usually get in early. There are some very savvy people not investing in BTC. Only a few angels thus far (again, correct me if I'm wrong). That speaks volumes to me. I was bullish back in December because I saw more news coming that would push the price up -- but I was never really under the delusion that masses of common everyday people would start using BTC anytime soon. And unless they do, we are in Bubble City. I can say that and still be bullish Bitcoin.....

Your statements make a lot of sense. however, the adoption of bitcoin does not rely solely on what bitcoin can do for itself. It will need support from merchants and the community as well.
merchant adoption such as wordpress, reddit, and others soon to come onboard is huge. Eventually I think bitcoin needs one BIG player to make it "official" I'm not even talking about Walmart or Target or any of those... maybe a site like Groupon, or Living Social, or even Yelp adding a new DB field to show if the business accepts BTC or not...
something small like that can start training people and getting them used to the idea of BTC being a legal tool of payment... developers will definitely love the idea to create apps to exchange money between devices using BTC. (Maybe bump dumping Paypal?) who knows, the possibilities are endless... you just need a few key merchants to take the plunge.. Eventually it'll happen.

[Manticore]

There is already one tiny hedge fund. Theoretically assuming that they sorted the humongous information security issue, there is no reason why some "funds of funds" could not invest into it and in turn institutional investors would not buy those "funds of funds" and as such indirectly invest into Bitcoin.

On top of that there are other ways I am sure being developed as we speak that would enable mainstream to invest into Bitcoin.

Moreover, would it not be correct to say that we do not know if inst. investors will ever invest into some tyny startup 1B$ market cap company?

As far as I can see your arguments in fact support premise that we are not in institutional investor phase. Whether we will ever get into one or not is a separate matter.

Sure, one of the fund of funds submanagers could use a small portion of their high-risk allocation to invest directly in BTC. Anything is possible. I'm sure there are hedge funds out there that would at least consider going direct. Most institutions would not touch these types of managers even if wrapped in a fund of funds (highly unlikely they would be). FYI I am not equating 'hedge funds' w/institutional investors.

Incorrect to say this ($1B market cap statement) because institutional investors invest in start-ups with no market cap; they do it through very skilled fund managers with long track records (they give the manager $10MM and he disburses to various projects, some small).

Information security, transparency, liquidity, regulatory uncertainty (less uncertain these days).....liquidity is big. Yes, they will invest in highly illiquid assets (timber, for instance...huge with institutions) but to invest in something where the market price moves so erratically at such low volume would make this a non-starter. Transparency is huge. How does one perform due diligence on BTC other than to buy into the media hype that moves the price up with little change in the underlying circumstances (correct me if I'm wrong) Truly....

I came to this forum to learn about BTC followers; I'm bullish on the novel concept. But I find it telling that institutions have not invested in BTC start-ups.....they usually get in early. There are some very savvy people not investing in BTC. Only a few angels thus far (again, correct me if I'm wrong). That speaks volumes to me. I was bullish back in December because I saw more news coming that would push the price up -- but I was never really under the delusion that masses of common everyday people would start using BTC anytime soon. And unless they do, we are in Bubble City. I can say that and still be bullish Bitcoin.....

Your statements make a lot of sense. however, the adoption of bitcoin does not rely solely on what bitcoin can do for itself. It will need support from merchants and the community as well.
merchant adoption such as wordpress, reddit, and others soon to come onboard is huge. Eventually I think bitcoin needs one BIG player to make it "official" I'm not even talking about Walmart or Target or any of those... maybe a site like Groupon, or Living Social, or even Yelp adding a new DB field to show if the business accepts BTC or not...
something small like that can start training people and getting them used to the idea of BTC being a legal tool of payment... developers will definitely love the idea to create apps to exchange money between devices using BTC. (Maybe bump dumping Paypal?) who knows, the possibilities are endless... you just need a few key merchants to take the plunge.. Eventually it'll happen.

Yes, if the possibility wasn't there I would not even be here .

[deathcode]

SELL SELL SELL!!!

We broke the "psychological" barrier of $100!!!
World will end, bitcoin will fall, and the OP goes nuts!
save us all OP
Give us one more TA for the fans!
Proudhon and ATC are my true heroes from this day on!

[BitcoinTate]

SELL SELL SELL!!!

We broke the "psychological" barrier of $100!!!
World will end, bitcoin will fall, and the OP goes nuts!
save us all OP
Give us one more TA for the fans!
Proudhon and ATC are my true heroes from this day on!

I'm lovin' it!

[ATC777]

SELL SELL SELL!!!

We broke the "psychological" barrier of $100!!!
World will end, bitcoin will fall, and the OP goes nuts!
save us all OP
Give us one more TA for the fans!
Proudhon and ATC are my true heroes from this day on!

Lol go ahead and buy those $106 coins... today is your day!

[ATC777]

However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here.

[deathcode]

However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here.

hahaha, so basically, your TA loks like a politian's speech. You cover all the angles just so you're not "wrong" ever! hahahha
Sorry I broke my promise of not giving you shit, but you deserve every bit of it, especially with your follow up comments...
How are those profits working for you? did you make enough to fix your car?

[smoothie]

However, there's another scenario which might take place. It might be that there's still enough money on the sidelines to drive this higher. If that is indeed the case, we're probably going to see the alternative crash scenario play out. The final "oomph!" before the blowout. Much like silver's huge over-night jump before the 2011 correction, we might see bitcoin tack on another +$25 and reach for the $100 mark (a key psychological level). If it plays out this way, the following crash will be much worse and longer-lasting than if it just goes ahead and corrects here.

This is what you call playing the fence so you are never wrong...


"well maybe this...maybe that...but definitely going to sell my bitcoins to buy back lower...blah blah blah"

OWNED! 

[ATC777]

hahaha, so basically, your TA loks like a politian's speech. You cover all the angles just so you're not "wrong" ever! hahahha
Sorry I broke my promise of not giving you shit, but you deserve every bit of it, especially with your follow up comments...
How are those profits working for you? did you make enough to fix your car?

That does not "cover every angle"...



Covering every angle would be saying something like "It's either going to go lower or higher". And I still say it's going lower. A lot of bubbles and rallies end with an "exhaustion gap" or one big, final move before breaking down. As I described before, this is how the great 2011 silver rally ended.

Your promises mean nothing to me (you never kept any promises to begin with). So I really don't care. Just go buy those coins, buddy. It's a great day for fools.