NFL/NCAAF 2016 Picks, Tips, Discussion

[energycr]

Well, I thought the Giants would be good enough to be able to overcome being the "road team playing on a short week" disadvantage, especially against the lowly Eagles. But apparently I was wrong. The Giants, especially Eli Manning, just looked unprepared and made too many mistakes. Oh, well there's a loss for me.

Thursday result:

New York Giants -3 (2.056) @ Philadelphia Eagles : Loss -1.00 bet unit

Thursday Total : -1.00 bet unit
Thread Total : +10.02 bet units

That was the most upsetting loss you can watch.
They had inches too go for the first down in the last 4 1/2 minutes to go for the touch down to win that thing then clinch but no they get a false start and a 5 yard push back.
Then I went away and came back with 40 seconds left they were on less than the 10 yard line and what happened? They let the clock run out. I was so mad at the tv I allmost smashed it!
Phil. Eagles lost their last 6 games for crying out loud.

[1714466642]

1714466642

[zero1ten]

Will go with Pittsburgh ML vs Baltimore, though this will be a very interesting matchup with both teams in the same division needing to secure their playoff spot especially to the Ravens who need to win this to steal the top spot for their division but I think Pittsburgh will not let this one go out and Baltimore will have a tough time against them. Good Luck and Merry Xmas to all.

[energycr]

Will go with Pittsburgh ML vs Baltimore, though this will be a very interesting matchup with both teams in the same division needing to secure their playoff spot especially to the Ravens who need to win this to steal the top spot for their division but I think Pittsburgh will not let this one go out and Baltimore will have a tough time against them. Good Luck and Merry Xmas to all.

Ravens will lose this one. Pitts is just to strong of a team for them to handle.
They don't call them the Steelers for nothin'!
And they will wreak the Raven's chances of getting to the big game today!

GO Pittsburgh on to the playoffs! Just love em they are my team!

[vella85]

What a big upset yesterday with the Cleveland Browns winning and even the Seahawks also loosing at home and also the Jaguars destroying the Titans. Too bad for me I had a very bad day and to make it even worse the Bengals could of won the game with a field goal at the end of the game but missed. Good luck with the teaser Junko and hopefully the Chiefs can cover the spread for you as you had some scary moments there with the Browns almost winning by more then 6 and also the Seahawks almost loosing by more then 6. The Packers was the only game never in doubt.

[energycr]

PittsssBurgh Win! 
They won their division!
So happy that they won right now! That was so very close at the end they nearly cost the game when they let the play clock ran out. I surely thought they were going to get a penalty to cost them the game!

[vella85]

PittsssBurgh Win! 
They won their division!
So happy that they won right now! That was so very close at the end they nearly cost the game when they let the play clock ran out. I surely thought they were going to get a penalty to cost them the game!

Yes they were very lucky and it was a great win by the Steelers to come from behind in the 4th quarter to get the win. Also just like to congratulate Junko on another great win with the teaser parlay and a nice overall profit for the weekend. I wish I could say the same but it didn't go to plan for me anyway I'll move on to next weekends games.

[Arcteryx]

The Kansas city Chiefs had an easy time last night and made me won a good ticket on a parlay I had with them on pure points.
T.Hill is the man when it comes to the running play. I watched him take that ball 80 yards all the way into the end zone with out being touched.
He jumped in and out of the pocket then rode the sideline like it was a school yard football match.
I think he ended up with over 400 yards last night. I remember the announcer saying after his first TD that he was on his way getting 1000 yards in last night game the pace he was at that time. Four minutes in and had something like 55 yards rushing. It was a great thing of beauty to watch.

[mrdeposit]

My pick tonight: Over 45.5
Full writeup and stats at Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

[Arcteryx]

My pick tonight: Over 45.5
Full writeup and stats at Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

Nice pick I should picked them odds too instead of some EPL games I picked earlier.
I saw good odds for over 49.5 too but decided to stick with the other sports.
What a bad decision for me to make. This one pick would of made me $200 with the 2 other matches I won this morning but lost by 1 corner in the third pick.

[mrdeposit]

My pick tonight: Over 45.5
Full writeup and stats at Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

Nice pick I should picked them odds too instead of some EPL games I picked earlier.
I saw good odds for over 49.5 too but decided to stick with the other sports.
What a bad decision for me to make. This one pick would of made me $200 with the 2 other matches I won this morning but lost by 1 corner in the third pick.

It happens to the best of us. Sometimes our gut feeling is screaming at us and we just don't listen.

[Junko]

Have a safe trip my friend and the same goes to you Have a Merry Christmas and lets hope we get some early Christmas presents with our bets on the NFL. That would make it even more great lol Unlucky with the Giants loosing and they are yet to clinch a playoff spot so it will be interesting to see what happens.

Thanks for the well wishes mate! It was a great trip and lots of fun was had by all.

And Hey guys, I'm just back from my Christmas cruise. Hope everyone is having a nice safe holiday so far.

Damn, looks like my picks from last weekend got blown up. Oh well, that's ok. I can't really complain. Sorry to anyone following my picks though. It was only my first negative weekend for this thread (I think. I'd have to go through all my posts here to make sure, but I believe it was my only negative weekend) and I'm still overall up for this thread as well as up in bet units for my own personal ledger since the beginning of this NFL/NCAA season.

And Congrats to all the winners this last weekend! Seems I missed a lot of exciting games while I was away.

Also just like to congratulate Junko on another great win with the teaser parlay and a nice overall profit for the weekend. I wish I could say the same but it didn't go to plan for me anyway I'll move on to next weekends games.

I actually lost the teaser, which put me in the negative for the weekend so    I'm with you on the sad boat, mate, but also moving on to this weekend's games.    I need to catch up on/cram in some research/analysis for this weekend's possible plays and picks...

But first, I need to add up the damages from last weekend:

1% bet, San Diego Chargers -6 (1.996) @ Cleveland Browns : Loss -1.00 bet units
1% bet, New York Jets @ New England Patriots -16.5 (1.986)  : Win +0.99 bet units
3% bet, 4-Team, 6 Point Teaser (3.500), picks in bold : Loss -3.00 bet units
      1. San Diego Chargers -5.5 (+6) @ Cleveland Browns : L
      2. Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -6.5 (+6) : W
      3. Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (+6) : L
      4. Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (+6) : W

Weekend Total: -3.01 bet units
Thread Total: +7.01

[Junko]

Alright, gonna make a couple of plays on today's NCAA semifinal bowls to get back into the flow of things after my vacation.

NitrogenSports NCAA, picks in bold:

Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide -14 (1.978) (neutral site)
Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide -15.5 (1.850)

Earlier this month, I took the early line on Alabama -15.5, speculating that the line would move higher. Well, it did go to -16 at one point, but it is currently only -14 with hours to go until kickoff. I am going to double up on Alabama and take the -14 for one bet unit. Bama's defense is NFL caliber and the Huskies didn't face anyone even remotely close to it this season.


Parlay, 1% bet, (4.187 odds), picks in bold
      1. Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide -14
      2. Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers ML

Ohio St. -2.5 vs Clemson seems like a pick'em game so I'm taking Clemson ML. Both teams have excellent coaches and both have very strong defenses, especially their secondaries. Deshaun Watson of Clemson is the better, more explosive QB and has the weapons to overcome the Buckeye's D. I think Clemson will put up at least 30-35 points while holding down Ohio St.'s offense and will win outright to set up a rematch of last year's NCAA Championship between Alabama and Clemson. This has been Clemson's mission this whole season, to get another shot at Alabama for the National Championship.

[Junko]

First of all, Happy New Year everyone!

I had a very nice start to bring in the New Year today with my college football picks. Hopefully it's a good omen for the rest of the year. Anyway, today easily  made up for last week's hiccup. Alabama and Clemson came through for me nicely to set up a rematch of last year's college football championship, or whatever they are calling it nowadays. I should have some NFL picks up for Sunday's games in a few hours or so. I need to check a few things first. Just wanted to get today's results into the ledger.

Saturday Results:

Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide -14 (1.978) : Win +0.98 bet units
Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide -15.5 (1.850) : Win +0.85 bet units

Parlay, 1% bet, (4.187 odds) : Win +3.19 bet units
      1. Washington Huskies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide -14 : W
      2. Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers ML : W

Saturday Total: +5.02 bet units
Thread Total: +12.03 bet units

[Junko]

It's the final week of the NFL regular season and because most of the playoff spots have already been determined, there are only a few possibilities I can see for making any plays. Most games today are meaningless - many teams are out of playoff contention, several teams that made the playoffs will either be holding their starters out of games or limiting their playing time significantly to reduce exposure to injury. Next week with the playoffs starting should have some better spots.


Sunday 1 Dec. NitrogenSports, 1% bets, picks in bold:


Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions +3 (2.056)

Winner of this game takes the division and a ticket to the playoffs. Detroit is 6-1 straight up at home. Green Bay has had problems playing on the road (3-4), only winning against poor teams away. The Lions are not a poor team despite losing big on the road to Dallas last week. I'll take Detroit at home and the points.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins, Over 46 (1.948)

Washington is playing for a playoff spot so they are highly motivated (at least they should be - like they should have been highly motivated last week, but blew it). Kirk Cousins and the Redskins offense will be putting up points while their below average defense will be giving up points. The Giants are locked into the 5th playoff seed so there isn't much motivation other than their offensive skill players padding their stats and tuning up for the playoffs. The Giants defense won't be giving their best effort as again, the team is locked into the 5th seed whether they win or lose so there isn't any incentive for the Giants D to go out of their way to stop Washington's offense. All this points to lots of points being scored so I'm taking the Over.

[JaredStein]

What is your total bankroll?

[Junko]

What is your total bankroll?

My total bitcoin sportsbetting bankroll is currently at 1.1203 btc (up +0.1203). It's actually higher: 1.1977 btc, but for the purposes of this "provably fair" tipster pickster thread, I only include bets that I've made since this thread was started. My starting bankroll for this NFL/NCAAF season was 1 btc. My standard bets are 1%, 2%, and 3% bets (0.01, 0.02, 0.03) depending on how I feel, as you can see on my betslips.

I only bet on NFL, NCAAF and occasionally MMA, boxing and rugby. Sportsbetting is just something I do on the side. Poker is my main gambling outlet. Football (American) season is like my "hunting season" so to speak. It only lasts five months from September to February. And while my focus is mostly poker as far as gambling is concerned, I do love me some betting action on the football.

[doublemore]

  Dolphins just scored now it is 20-14 for the Patriots.

Will Miami be able to actually pull this win off and eliminate New England and the Superman Brady from the Playoffs which as lnog as I have been watching hasn't happened before?

Upd: Well Patriots just ran down the field for 80 yards being on their on 30 year line. So it is not going to happen now.

[energycr]

I can not believe what I just saw in the Buffalo Bills game.
The Ny Jets fielded the ball on kicking back. It lands on the 1 yard line then the receiving team calls fair catch then the Jets fall on the ball to get a touchdown.
That I have never seen in my life happen before.
The announcer was saying that is just as surprising as what Mara Carey did on stage last night if not even more surprising.

[vella85]

A couple of big upsets so far today with the Jets thrashing the Bills and also the Eagles beating the Cowboys and also the Browns are playing well and might even pull off another big upset in OT by beating the Steelers at home. I decided not to post tips on this weeks games after last weeks terrible result. 

[Junko]

Dolphins just scored now it is 20-14 for the Patriots.

Will Miami be able to actually pull this win off and eliminate New England and the Superman Brady from the Playoffs which as lnog as I have been watching hasn't happened before?

Upd: Well Patriots just ran down the field for 80 yards being on their on 30 year line. So it is not going to happen now.

Hey, mate. Actually, even if New England had lost, they would not have been eliminated from the playoffs. The playoffs start next week. Miami is still in the playoffs also despite losing today. The implications for this game were about playoff seeding. Because of this win, New England has the best record of the AFC and by that virtue, they get a first round bye in the playoffs and they will have home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. If Miami would have won, they would have gotten a higher seed - 5th seed, I believe and would be playing Houston in the first round of the playoffs. Since they lost, they are the 6th seed and now must play Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round next week, which will be a harder game to win.

I can not believe what I just saw in the Buffalo Bills game.
The Ny Jets fielded the ball on kicking back. It lands on the 1 yard line then the receiving team calls fair catch then the Jets fall on the ball to get a touchdown.
That I have never seen in my life happen before.
The announcer was saying that is just as surprising as what Mara Carey did on stage last night if not even more surprising.

Yeah, that was crazy, and very bone-headed playing by the Bills. The ball is live for either team on kickoffs. That was like a long onside kick, lol. And firing your head coach the day before a game is pretty crazy and bone-headed as well. I think the reasoning though is that the team will be competing with other sorry-ass teams who have fired their head coaches this year to find competent head coaching replacements as soon as possible.

A couple of big upsets so far today with the Jets thrashing the Bills and also the Eagles beating the Cowboys and also the Browns are playing well and might even pull off another big upset in OT by beating the Steelers at home. I decided not to post tips on this weeks games after last weeks terrible result. 

Yep, this week is different and kind of screwy as far as betting because teams that have made the playoffs will be resting/holding out their starting players for the upcoming playoffs. No one wants any of their key players to get injured needlessly in meaningless games. That's what happened to Derek Carr of Oakland, breaking his leg last week. Now they will have to rely on their back up QB in the playoffs. The Steelers and Cowboys held out/limited most of their star players today and that's why their games were what they were and why it wasn't really that great as far as betting compared to other weeks.

Next week when it's playoff time, it will be back to real deal football, although there won't be any really bad teams involved as well as less games to chose from.