Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wilfried]

would be interesting to know the figures of bitfinex bets, but anyway - options work with 2 parties, so if the volume is low on gox it will be low on bitfinex too i bet.

the liberty reserve thing is majorly blown up by the us govx. they state that $6 billions where "washed" over lr, ... i suspect that sum is just the total business sum, because i doubt they are able to properly separate legitimate trades from "washing"-trades, besides that only a judge can tell in a verdict which sum was illegitimate. but it will make ordinary people stay away from anything resembling e-cash for a while- so low volume ahead.

i find the way the prosecutors present their case quite entertaining, just like if they would have won over evil. but looking at it from another perspective one could  almost just as well state that lr was a succesful implementation of hawalla (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala)  in the digital domain, and so a super cool startup company working really well with cool guys on top, sort of sugarberg etc..

talking about hawalla, i hope bitcoin is "hawalla 2000"

[Frozenlock]

Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?

No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows.

Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%.

How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.)
If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange...

IAS

Sure, like placing shorts, then scaring the shit out of everyone with a 7k ask wall? 

[Ultraviolet]

How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.)
If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange...

IAS

It doesn't do much now, but you used to be able to route buy/sell orders to Gox on BFX. They removed Gox routes after the Dwolla seizure though, so it's just Bitstamp and BFX's internal book now. At least BFX is 0.1% rake and 0.25% on Bitstamp.

[ChartBuddy]

[Quantum_Negatum]

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking?  
There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime?
You should write children's stories...  

Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work.

Looks like I may have been right though...

Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh

I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest.
Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be...

What am I confusing? I acknowledged I was guessing by calling it a "bet." But, it was an educated bet that took into consideration recent events.

You are making some of the most speculative guesses in this thread and have a hard time admitting that you might be wrong.

[Ultraviolet]

Bot fight had us touch 130.00.

Buckle. Up.

[Its About Sharing]

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking?  
There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime?
You should write children's stories...  

Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work.

Looks like I may have been right though...

Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh

I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest.
Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be...

What am I confusing? I acknowledged I was guessing by calling it a "bet." But, it was an educated bet that took into consideration recent events.

You are making some of the most speculative guesses in this thread and have a hard time admitting that you might be wrong.

My bad, I thought the "eheheh" was enough to show I was playing with you. Just having fun...

[Frozenlock]

Another 1337 wall at $128. I wonder if they are real.

[Its About Sharing]

would be interesting to know the figures of bitfinex bets, but anyway - options work with 2 parties, so if the volume is low on gox it will be low on bitfinex too i bet.

the liberty reserve thing is majorly blown up by the us govx. they state that $6 billions where "washed" over lr, ... i suspect that sum is just the total business sum, because i doubt they are able to properly separate legitimate trades from "washing"-trades, besides that only a judge can tell in a verdict which sum was illegitimate. but it will make ordinary people stay away from anything resembling e-cash for a while- so low volume ahead.

i find the way the prosecutors present their case quite entertaining, just like if they would have won over evil. but looking at it from another perspective one could  almost just as well state that lr was a succesful implementation of hawalla (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala)  in the digital domain, and so a super cool startup company working really well with cool guys on top, sort of sugarberg etc..

talking about hawalla, i hope bitcoin is "hawalla 2000"

Ever been to court and have a prosecutor read their "recommended sentencing"? I thought I was in the wrong court!
Seriously, they speak like they get training from a corrupt government - oh wait...

Good point you brought up and it crossed my mind. They are trying to propagandize something to be much larger than it probably was. Amazing, HSBC can admit to Laundering 8 billion in drug cartel money, Wachova can do 100's of Billions, and nothing happens to neither. The good thing is that most people know that now and it will probably effect what we are more than likely about to go, or get pulled into...

[Ultraviolet]

The aggrandizing of the US Government's "triumph over evil in defense of the people" in the Liberty Reserve business is about the same bullshit they pulled with poker on Black Friday. Of course, in fairness, Full Tilt thought it was amusing to spend out of the funds held in trust for the players, so they were evil, but that is mostly irrelevant because what they went after FTP for was circumventing UIGEA. The rest of it was just public relations icing.

Someone just bought the 400B "wall" at 130.

Exciting times.

[molecular]

Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?

No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows.

Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%.

How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.)
If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange...

IAS

afaik on bitfinex the coins are borrowed and actually sold (or bought) on exchange. Don't know if mtgox is currently active.

so yes, it has effect and there is also danger of squeezes.

Just checked the site and order book contains only bitfinex and bitstamp orders. so gox is not affected.

[NamelessOne]

It has begun! 

[Frozenlock]

up Up UP! 

[ardana123]

[wonkytonky]

dammit i'm always to late buying..  im always to late selling..    again.. i missed it today  came just home from work  stuck in traffic..  

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[Miz4r]

Holy crap someone bought 1300 BTC on Bitstamp at $130.

[wonkytonky]

wtf 1.3k buy's on bitstamp ..   it seems we found where some of tha money from gox went too..

or is this normal for bitstamp?..

[TsuyokuNaritai]

http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-trading-market-reaction-to-regulatory-news-is-remarkably-consistent/

[Miz4r]

No this is a ridiculous amount for Bitstamp, someone just bought the entire wall.

[IG0BR0KE]

are we drawing a big Cup & Handle (H1 & H2)?   the handle is rly not clear but there's a little bit of it

http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/598686Capturedu20130529205607.png