Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KeyserSoze]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc6Hp_Zq3rU

Cyprus got ZhouTonged and then NeoBeed.

[adamstgBit]

I was thinking about MTGox's 200,000 Bitcoins they found in that old wallet or whatever it is.  At some point the bankruptcy is going to sell those coins and dump them on the market in one big go turning them into FIAT.  There is no way I see them distributing out those coins as Bitcoins.  What will that do to the market?  If they released all 200,000+ coins at one time?  Seems to me that's exactly what they are going to do.

hopefully they dont tell anyone and dump on stamps at 3am EST


to cause as much damage OPPORTUNITY as possible

[aminorex]

your premises and your reasoning cannot be correct, if all you have is a meat computer.

Then your offer to reason for bitcoin doesn't appear to be an attractive proposition.

Less wrong is generally good enough.  Also, I have crafted some prostheses which give me superhuman powers in certain limited domains.

[Davyd05]

I was thinking about MTGox's 200,000 Bitcoins they found in that old wallet or whatever it is.  At some point the bankruptcy is going to sell those coins and dump them on the market in one big go turning them into FIAT.  There is no way I see them distributing out those coins as Bitcoins.  What will that do to the market?  If they released all 200,000+ coins at one time?  Seems to me that's exactly what they are going to do.

hopefully they dont tell anyone and dump on stamps at 3am EST


to cause as much damage OPPORTUNITY as possible

hehe yeah I mentioned this last night with people front running on a panic dump...I would imagine the bankruptcy trustees can manage to not just sell them on stamp.. I would assume Second Market, Winklevoss, bigger investors who want bulk buys are talking, or trying to talk with the bankruptcy trustees

[adamstgBit]

I was thinking about MTGox's 200,000 Bitcoins they found in that old wallet or whatever it is.  At some point the bankruptcy is going to sell those coins and dump them on the market in one big go turning them into FIAT.  There is no way I see them distributing out those coins as Bitcoins.  What will that do to the market?  If they released all 200,000+ coins at one time?  Seems to me that's exactly what they are going to do.

Why would they dump them?

I expect them to sell these coins for the highest potential value.
Meaning mostly off-exchange and slowly over time.

why would they care about the price they get

they are selling it, only to redistribute to other people, they dont care about other people....

i think they will just have mark send the BTC, it will be the cheapest solution for them

[rpietila]

hehe yeah I mentioned this last night with people front running on a panic dump...I would imagine the bankruptcy trustees can manage to not just sell them on stamp.. I would assume Second Market, Winklevoss, bigger investors who want bulk buys are talking, or trying to talk with the bankruptcy trustees

Wow, what a bunch of vested interest in keeping the price low...

Boys, the way for us to profit is to buy (or at least not sell) now, as the price suppression continues.

The trendline is at $1100 now, it's better than last October

[Davyd05]

hehe yeah I mentioned this last night with people front running on a panic dump...I would imagine the bankruptcy trustees can manage to not just sell them on stamp.. I would assume Second Market, Winklevoss, bigger investors who want bulk buys are talking, or trying to talk with the bankruptcy trustees

Wow, what a bunch of vested interest in keeping the price low...

Boys, the way for us to profit is to buy (or at least not sell) now, as the price suppression continues.

The trendline is at $1100 now, it's better than last October

If my income was greater, I'd convert more to btc lol

[billyjoeallen]

your premises and your reasoning cannot be correct, if all you have is a meat computer.

Then your offer to reason for bitcoin doesn't appear to be an attractive proposition.

Less wrong is generally good enough.  Also, I have crafted some prostheses which give me superhuman powers in certain limited domains.

Me too. A chief fallibility of meat computers is bias. I actively attempt to identify and negate my own bias. I don't have to be very successful at this to gain an advantage. I just just have to be relatively more successful than those I compete with.

What are your prostheses?

[dnaleor]

[UnDerDoG81]

It moved $4  Choo Choo MF

[roslinpl]

I am preparing my astronaut suit :]

I am sure Huston is almost ready for a launch!

[BlackFlag]

It moved $4  Choo Choo MF

+1 ccmf

[bitcoinsrus]

It moved $4  Choo Choo MF

+1 ccmf

This friday poll (on this post) seems to want to be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Can I make another wish while I am at it? 
Please take me back to Feb 11, 2009 

[ShroomsKit]

Don't get too excited. Just at the point where you think now we finally broke the downtrend some asshat will dump 1k coins right in your face. And we will be at 480 ot whatever for another week.
And yes, i hope i'm completely wrong because i'm completely tired of these people dumping.

[UnDerDoG81]

Don't get too excited. Just at the point where you think now we finally broke the downtrend some asshat will dump 1k coins right in your face. And we will be at 480 ot whatever for another week.
And yes, i hope i'm completely wrong because i'm completely tired of these people dumping.

  +1

[podyx]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

The bulls always put on the better show in this market.  lower low DENIED

[JayJuanGee]

I was thinking about MTGox's 200,000 Bitcoins they found in that old wallet or whatever it is.  At some point the bankruptcy is going to sell those coins and dump them on the market in one big go turning them into FIAT.  There is no way I see them distributing out those coins as Bitcoins.  What will that do to the market?  If they released all 200,000+ coins at one time?  Seems to me that's exactly what they are going to do.

Why would they dump them?

I expect them to sell these coins for the highest potential value.
Meaning mostly off-exchange and slowly over time.

why would they care about the price they get

they are selling it, only to redistribute to other people, they dont care about other people....

i think they will just have mark send the BTC, it will be the cheapest solution for them

Every court will have its own outlined procedure for this kind of idea to liquidate assets. 

Likely they have a goal to achieve as much as they can within the timeline parameters, which may mean breaking the total into chunks (if it is believed that breaking into chunks would achieve a higher return), but likely the process would allow for bids rather than dumping on the exchange. 

They certainly do NOT seem to care about the good of the various customers or what may be best for bitcoin - b/c fairly quickly, they rejected the non-liquidation option to allow the take over of GOX by competent financial people.

The various vested interests, including customers and other stake holders have opportunities to attempt to persuade the court with submissions of persuasive arguments.  Who knows whether the court will chose to deviate from any of its standard procedures and make exceptions regarding how to liquidate b/c in the court's view this case could require some exceptional procedure(s).

[oda.krell]

[reasonable argument why price analysis based on data from years ago cannot give meaningful signals for today]

You would think that, I guess. But the most successful traders would disagree with that, and prove you wrong.

How many n-sigma events do you accept before you start questioning your theory? That's the question you need to ask yourself.^{[I'm alluding to the Buffet thing in case that wasn't clear]}

You surely did not pay attention, but aftter the end-of-March crash I predicted that the price would reboud to the previous levels (~550 USD) if the Caixin article turned out to be false.  I may even have been the most bullish bull at the time.

That's not what I mean by "price picking up again". I meant how will you react if you're around for the next bubble cycle that takes us to a new all time high.

Guess we'll find out if you're still around then.