Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Nice chart Krabby, I hadnt seen that one before.

this is my chart 

[JayJuanGee]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets    (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets 
2016 - 2 million new wallets 
2017 - 4 million new wallets 
2018 - 8 million new wallets 
2019 - 16 million new wallets 
2020 - 32 million new wallets 
2021 - 64 million new wallets 
2022 - 128 million new wallets 
2023 - 256 million new wallets 

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth.  If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.


2024 - 512 million new wallets     
2025 - 1 billion new wallets 
2026 - 2 billion new wallets 
2027 - 4 billion new wallets 
2028 - 8 billion new wallets 
2029 - 16 billion new wallets 
2030 - 32 billion new wallets 
2031 - 64 billion new wallets 
2032 - 128 billion new wallets 
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Dude... he heh he...          The "conservative" nature of my estimate would apply to the first few years, and mostly to the first 10 years, or at least until the market would become saturated in the mid 2020s at the latest.  Probably I should have clarified that a little better? 

 Nonetheless,  I thought that my explanation would have clarified that I was starting out conservative.. .but, apparently NOT... If I were to revise such estimate, then I would remove the years after 2026 b/c probably a different growth rate would apply at that time.  I would NOT expect continued exponential growth past the half way mark of market saturation (which would likely be around mid-2020s in that projection).

I kept the numbers going upward at the same doubling rate, merely to demonstrate their direction if we were to keep the same doubling projection, if the rate were to remain the same doubling, every year.... but we all know the population (and/or markets are NOT likely to continue to be able to absorb such growth rate... 

Hopefully this clarifies for you... even though, based on your response, I question whether you had truly attempted to grapple with the main point(s) that I was attempting to make in the post.

[jonoiv]

I can draw lines on a graph too.

yes the only difference is that yours are distorting the true figures. 

[windjc]

Nice chart Krabby, I hadnt seen that one before.

this is my chart 

That has got to be the least bullish non-bearish chart in the history of charts. And the cherry on top are the really tiny green candles on declining volume at the end of it.

[windjc]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

We will see 470 maybe 480 (on a final burst) before we get a nasty red candle.

It is almost time to short again. The holiday in China is screwing things up a bit. We might not get the catalyst for this red candle until Mon or Tues.

[JayJuanGee]

are you a basic bitch?

The video seems to incorporate quite a bit of libertarian phraseology in its defending and defining of bitcoin.

[thezerg]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

[JorgeStolfi]

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Your wallet app automatically creates 100'000 new wallets every time you use it, to inflate the app's usage statistics. 

[xulescu]

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Your wallet app automatically creates 100'000 new wallets every time you use it, to inflate the app's usage statistics. 

This comment is retarded. If companies are considered economic entities on their own, independent of the humans who run them, why wouldn't your fridge be an economic entity on its own, independent of the humans it runs for? Why wouldn't people's t-shirts make them money by displaying ads? Each t-shirt would likely have its own wallet. Bitcoin injects steroids into ubiquitous computing.

[JorgeStolfi]

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Your wallet app automatically creates 100'000 new wallets every time you use it, to inflate the app's usage statistics. 

This comment is retarded. If companies are considered economic entities on their own, independent of the humans who run them, why wouldn't your fridge be an economic entity on its own, independent of the humans it runs for? Why wouldn't people's t-shirts make them money by displaying ads? Each t-shirt would likely have its own wallet. Bitcoin injects steroids into ubiquitous computing.

Your comment is advanced. I was merely pointing out a small logical gap between "number of wallets" and "actual usage".

[octaft]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Considering this is the absolute wet dream of any bitcoin holder, in what way is it conservative again? Not to mention that, considering not everyone in the entire world will be using bitcoin, it assumes probably closer to 100 wallets per person. How many people do you know with 90 appliances, let alone 90 appliances that could make use of this technology? Maybe your toaster will be reordering bread?

[JayJuanGee]

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Does that mean that in 2033 every bitcoin user will own 2.56 billion wallets? Why would he need that? 


 

It could mean that or it could mean that a population of between 5-10 billion people would have 25-50 wallets per person.  As we already know, wallets could be created by organizations or governments or even be attributed to entities that may NOT yet exist (such as a trust that would describe how the bitcoins in the wallet would be distributed upon the triggering of some future event(s)).  Personally, as I stated in my previous post, i believe the market would become saturated much before 2033, which would cause considerable slowing down of the growth rate or would cause the model or the growth curve to shift.

[JayJuanGee]

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Your wallet app automatically creates 100'000 new wallets every time you use it, to inflate the app's usage statistics. 

This comment is retarded. If companies are considered economic entities on their own, independent of the humans who run them, why wouldn't your fridge be an economic entity on its own, independent of the humans it runs for? Why wouldn't people's t-shirts make them money by displaying ads? Each t-shirt would likely have its own wallet. Bitcoin injects steroids into ubiquitous computing.

Some of the ideas and the responses, here are retarded; however, the overall concept that there may be multiple ways to create wallets that may be tied to people, organizations, governments or trusts is NOT retarded and within our current possibilities to conceptualize.

[JayJuanGee]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Considering this is the absolute wet dream of any bitcoin holder, in what way is it conservative again? Not to mention that, considering not everyone in the entire world will be using bitcoin, it assumes probably closer to 100 wallets per person. How many people do you know with 90 appliances, let alone 90 appliances that could make use of this technology? Maybe your toaster will be reordering bread?

Dude... eh hehehhehehe          Did you see that I already responded to your question about what I meant by conservative>>>>>>>> in the above post>>>>>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6502505#msg6502505 

[octaft]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Considering this is the absolute wet dream of any bitcoin holder, in what way is it conservative again? Not to mention that, considering not everyone in the entire world will be using bitcoin, it assumes probably closer to 100 wallets per person. How many people do you know with 90 appliances, let alone 90 appliances that could make use of this technology? Maybe your toaster will be reordering bread?

Dude... eh hehehhehehe          Did you see that I already responded to your question about what I meant by conservative>>>>>>>> in the above post>>>>>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6502505#msg6502505 

No I didn't, but I think the most important consideration here is will your toaster reorder bread? And no wheat! No way I'm spending my hard-earned appliance-bitcoins out of any one of my 300 wallets on that bullshit!

[akujin]

We're almost there 

[hyphymikey]

at first I bought bitcoin to make me rich, I guess I am a basic bitch.

[JorgeStolfi]

It is 11:00 am in China, and hourly trade volume is still like that of 05:00 am of normal days. 

Presumably the robots who are responsible for Huobi's  fake volume are still in bed, cooking their hangover from the party last night, and will resume their work in a couple of hours.  Otherwise today may be another record low in daily volume, comparable to the Chinese New Year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation