Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

excuse for the noob question,

so a red candle on wisdom means more sell volume than buy volume?
and a red candle can be higher (than previous candles)due to a a higher sell price?

Just means that the opening price was higher than the closing price, it has nothing to do with volume.

thx!
but the lenght of the candle has to do with the volume i suppose

no.

candles show the price movement for a given time frame. 1 hour candles show, open close and range of price movement during that hour

they have nothing to do with volume.

volume bars should be under these candles but i don't how that works on wisdom

[1714466916]

1714466916

[1714466916]

1714466916

[p0peji]

excuse for the noob question,

so a red candle on wisdom means more sell volume than buy volume?
and a red candle can be higher (than previous candles)due to a a higher sell price?

Just means that the opening price was higher than the closing price, it has nothing to do with volume.

thx!
but the lenght of the candle has to do with the volume i suppose

No the body of the candle (the thick part) consists of the opening and closing price, the small sticks indicate the highest or lowest price during the time in which candle is formed.

[adamstgBit]

nubs are studying and learning

BUY BUY BUY!

[p0peji]

nubs are studying

BUY BUY BUY!

Probably because of that misleading documentary about bitcoin and how everyone supposedly made a fortune on trading bitcoin.

[seldon]

nubs are studying

BUY BUY BUY!

Probably because of that misleading documentary about bitcoin and how everyone supposedly made a fortune on trading bitcoin.

Everyone did, didn't they? At least the hodlers who have been around longer then some days..

[elg]

thx for the answers guys, just the question was noobish..

[adamstgBit]

nubs are studying

BUY BUY BUY!

Probably because of that misleading documentary about bitcoin and how everyone supposedly made a fortune on trading bitcoin.

Everyone did, didn't they? At least the hodlers who have been around longer then some days..

i bet some poeple lost money buying 16$ bitcoins.

Hodling is hard...

[xulescu]

...
1. Prisoners dilemma
2. The problem with this statement is that you never know what is the best interest of the whole.

Yup.  Not even sure about the intended meaning of "best interests of the whole."

Prisoners' dilemma is not realistic because that logic only works in one-time games. Society is a repeated game, and someone who defects most of the time is going to lose. If the majority defects most of the time, collusion will appear in which the cooperating minority cooperates inside the group and becomes better. Tit-for-tat (cooperate first) is a surprisingly excellent strategy. Very few non-colluding strategies can do better. The only collusion strategy that does way better is master-slaves. Trust me, 99% of the cases people invoke prisoners' dilemma they use it wrong. If anything, it proves how "unenlightened self-interest" (economic rationality) is dumb and suboptimal compared to "enlightened self-interest" (economic super-rationality).

It is similar to the implications of Godel's theorems. A Turing machine cannot transcend its condition, but mathematicians are not Turing machine. Guess what, neither machine learning is Turing-limited because it is computation in the limit. Don't be the Turing machine in society.

Regarding 2, yes, that is a problem. I do not believe it is a fatal problem, because there exist Pareto superior options almost always. Just like (artifical example) VCG auctions make everybody be truthful (barring collusion).

[Adrian-x]

1. Prisoners dilemma
2. The problem with this statement is that you never know what is the best interest of the whole.

I predict it is not continuous growth in a finite plaint, and I predict its not the first to consume all resources wins.  
but I trust evolution.

[aminorex]

I trust evolution.

I trust evolution to do what is in evolution's interest.  Incentives, after all.  Just need to figure out how to incentivize evolution to behave nicely.

[aminorex]

order book actually starting to look healthy for the first time in long while

[xulescu]

I trust evolution.

I trust evolution to do what is in evolution's interest.  Incentives, after all.  Just need to figure out how to incentivize evolution to behave nicely.

Wisdom: 100% from concentrate

Incentives are EVERYTHING; people need to understand that they cannot assume everyone (most others) to be truthful and that if they align incentives in a game-theoretical setting everyone (each and all) is better off, with the exception of the parasites and the myopic, who are better off in a system that is so easy to game

[ZephramC]

excuse for the noob question,

so a red candle on wisdom means more sell volume than buy volume?
and a red candle can be higher (than previous candles)due to a a higher sell price?

Just means that the opening price was higher than the closing price, it has nothing to do with volume.

thx!
but the lenght of the candle has to do with the volume i suppose

No. It has to do with difference between opening price and closing price. Actually candle height IS difference between opening and closing price.

[billyjoeallen]

It seems that most of them are in the US or "US-like" countries, so it cannot be freedom of speech, religion, travel, residence, association, study, dress, drink, sex, marriage, work, property, trade, investment, enterprise, and many other basic freedoms that the citizens of those countries enjoy to a higher degree than most other people in the world (and that bitcoin cannot do anything about anyway).

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Freedom of association? You've never heard of "Affirmative action"? Residence? We can only live in areas that are zoned residential. Speech? This is why Bradley Manning is in supermax prison and Edward Snowden is being hunted like a war criminal? Sex? Prostitution is legal in a few counties in one state out of fifty. Travel? try driving without a license. try traveling without a passport.  Permission to travel is not freedom. Not needing permission is freedom. Religion? so Muslims and Fundamentalist Mormons can have multiple wives? Rastafarians can spark a joint in D.C.? Pacifists like Quakers and Mennonites don't have to pay taxes that fund wars?

I could go on and on. Most Germans in Nazi Germany thought they were free because all of the things that were banned were things they didn't want to do anyway. That's not freedom. Real freedom means freedom to be unpopular.

[podyx]

How bitcoin redddit will look like in 5 years:
https://i.imgur.com/HID68KI.jpg

'Mark Karpeles find missing bitcoins under his couch cushions. "I swear to god my cat did it" he said in an official statement to the associated press'
 

[bitcoinsrus]

How bitcoin redddit will look like in 5 years:
https://i.imgur.com/HID68KI.jpg

'Mark Karpeles find missing bitcoins under his couch cushions. "I swear to god my cat did it" he said in an official statement to the associated press'
 

Lol that was a good one

[xulescu]

It seems that most of them are in the US or "US-like" countries, so it cannot be freedom of speech, religion, travel, residence, association, study, dress, drink, sex, marriage, work, property, trade, investment, enterprise, and many other basic freedoms that the citizens of those countries enjoy to a higher degree than most other people in the world (and that bitcoin cannot do anything about anyway).

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Freedom of association? You've never heard of "Affirmative action"? Residence? We can only live in areas that are zoned residential. Speech? This is why Bradley Manning is in supermax prison and Edward Snowden is being hunted like a war criminal? Sex? Prostitution is legal in a few counties in one state out of fifty. Travel? try driving without a license. try traveling without a passport.  Permission to travel is not freedom. Not needing permission is freedom. Religion? so Muslims and Fundamentalist Mormons can have multiple wives? Rastafarians can spark a joint in D.C.? Pacifists like Quakers and Mennonites don't have to pay taxes that fund wars?

I could go on and on. Most Germans in Nazi Germany thought they were free because all of the things that were banned were things they didn't want to do anyway. That's not freedom. Real freedom means freedom to be unpopular.

So many people do not understand freedom. You're not free when you can do something. You're free when you can do whatever you want, no questions asked, unless you break someone else's freedom. Since there are always petty conflicts of interests (smokers vs non-smokers), apply tolerance. If you don't like something, it's generally you who should adapt/avoid.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I trust evolution.

I trust evolution to do what is in evolution's interest.  Incentives, after all.  Just need to figure out how to incentivize evolution to behave nicely.

Wisdom: 100% from concentrate

Incentives are EVERYTHING; people need to understand that they cannot assume everyone (most others) to be truthful and that if they align incentives in a game-theoretical setting everyone (each and all) is better off, with the exception of the parasites and the myopic, who are better off in a system that is so easy to game

Incentives are everything, but keep in mind that there is no such thing as cheating with natural selection. Genghis Khan's gene propagation strategy was successful as was the sperm bank donor with thousands of offspring. Civilization is an attempt at UNnatural selection. "Behaving nicely" is a completely relative concept.

[Erdogan]

The impending (and almost certain) closure of the bank withdrawal channels of Chinese exchanges will inevitably lead to transfer of some of the coins that are now in their client accounts to the Western exchanges.  More coins, no new dollars, can only cause the price in the West to go down. The only question is by how much.

How exactly that will play out seems still uncertain.  The Chinese exchanges have been remarkably silent after the last PBoC move, in contrast to the weeks after the late March Caixin leak.  One of them at least has said that it will avoid public announcements because it does not want to cause commotion in the market.

I wonder how far they will take this new "PR policy":

  1. The Chinese exchanges may give their clients advance warning of the bank withdrawal closure, or the closure will happen only on the May 10 deadline.  In that case I expect that there will be a rush by most Chinese clients to sell their bitcoin (which they cannot use for commerce in China, and probably do not believe it ever go to the moon) and withdraw the CNY while they can.  Other clients who have some connection to the West may choose to move their bitcoin to Western exchanges and continue trading there.  Abitragers, habitual or improvised, will use any CNY still in their accounts to buy cheap coins there and sell them in the West.  Then the price will drop in the Chinese exchanges, and the Western ones will follow.

  2. The Chinese exchanges will close CNY bank withdrawals before May 10, without advance warning.   Then many clients with CNY trapped in their accounts will try to buy bitcoin to move them out.  The price of bitcoin in China will probably rise sharply.  Arbitragers, insiders, and other clients who have other ways of withdrawing CNY will make handsome profits at the expense of ordinary clients.  Arbitrage may temporarily transfer some of that price increase to the West, but that will be counteracted by the pressure of other clients moving bitcoin to the West, even at a loss, to get their money out.  Since in the end the net amount of bitcoin in the Chinese exchanges must decrease, the latter effect must predominate, so the price in the West will decouple and fall while it rises in China.

  3. The Chinese exchanges may just shut down without any prior warning, or block bitcoin widthdrawals as well; so that both the CNY and bitcons of their clients will be trapped inside, except perhaps for some privileged users or some restricted non-bank channels.  This option seems very unlikely, considering what happened to the owners of the GBL exchange.

In any case, I imagine that some Chinese traders who keep most of their bitcoins in private wallets, outside the exchange, may want to sell them, since the withdrawal restrictions may take all the fun & profit out of the bitcoin speculation game.  Therfore some of those coins will also find their way to the Western exchanges.

From the analyst who knows nothing, because his mind is clouded by fear.