Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

Everyone is so bullish right before the trap and buys in to get burned, during some slow weak push up towards the major downtrend line.

we just retraced 100% of a china ban sell off, we have divergance on a daily scale, inverse H&S on a daily scale, divergance on an hourly scale, inverse H&S on an hourly scale, a clear corrective retracement of a bull run off major lows, and fresh fiat entering the market. Dont you think this is a dangerous time to put your trust in the down trend?

She's spreading fud because she didn't fill her $150 or whatever ridiculous buy order. As always.

[1714494475]

1714494475

[Hen0xyd]

Maybe its a bulltrap, but i dont recall the fat red "China news" candle being nullified so fast on the 2h chart.

and the china "news" didn't produce much of a dip.

After 10+ "bans" :

- any Chinese who wanted to go away from bitcoin could have already done this.
- any Chinese who wanted to keep dealing with bitcoin, store value (etc.) may do it other way or elsewhere
- it is harder to flow more fiat (cny) for most of chinese people - still I'm not sure it's because of average Joe (average Lee?  ) we got to 1200$ some months ago...

It makes me think of a proverb/story about a "boy who cried wolf", each alert for ban means less and less reaction.

Also, thanks for the Bloomberg link, that's good news !

[kehtolo]

Maybe its a bulltrap, but i dont recall the fat red "China news" candle being nullified so fast on the 2h chart.

and the china "news" didn't produce much of a dip.

After 10+ "bans" :

- any Chinese who wanted to go away from bitcoin could have already done this.
- any Chinese who wanted to keep dealing with bitcoin, store value (etc.) may do it other way or elsewhere
- it is harder to flow more fiat (cny) for most of chinese people - still I'm not sure it's because of average Joe (average Lee?  ) we got to 1200$ some months ago...

It makes me think of a proverb/story about a "boy who cried wolf", each alert for ban means less and less reaction.

Also, thanks for the Bloomberg link, that's good news !

Exactly - China is the boy who cried wolf. Sorted. Now let's move on.

[BitchicksHusband]

His hatred for our freedom knows no bounds, [ ... ]  He usually manages a semblance of sanity until his "libertarian" reaction formation is activated, whereupon all bets are off.

Good to see you airing those "academic" prejudices a little more openly again, prof.  Have the high priests of the global Bitcoin conspiracy been getting to you again?   Bitcoin could be your saviour but you're so terrified of some of its libertarian fans somehow taking complete control of this massive open-to-all consensus-based network that you'd rather dedicate your time to saving the world from those dangerous imaginary cultists [ ... ]

I think your political bias might be showing a tad. 

My sincere apologies if I ever gave the impression that I had any sympathy or respect whatsoever for the libertarian ideology.  If you care, I could try to remove any lingering doubts you may have about my opinions on the matter.

By the way, I am still trying to figure out what exactly is the "freedom" that the bitcoin "libertarians" are so obsessed about.

It seems that most of them are in the US or "US-like" countries, so it cannot be freedom of speech, religion, travel, residence, association, study, dress, drink, sex, marriage, work, property, trade, investment, enterprise, and many other basic freedoms that the citizens of those countries enjoy to a higher degree than most other people in the world (and that bitcoin cannot do anything about anyway).

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Freedom from bank bailouts and the continued devaluation of the dollar.

[xulescu]

So much delusion here. Look at 1h charts for Stamp and Huobi. Do you notice anything odd in the last two days?

[knarzo]

So much delusion here. Look at 1h charts for Stamp and Huobi. Do you notice anything odd in the last two days?

Manipulators are getting desperate?

[JorgeStolfi]

The impending (and almost certain) closure of the bank withdrawal channels of Chinese exchanges will inevitably lead to transfer of some of the coins that are now in their client accounts to the Western exchanges.  More coins, no new dollars, can only cause the price in the West to go down. The only question is by how much.

How exactly that will play out seems still uncertain.  The Chinese exchanges have been remarkably silent after the last PBoC move, in contrast to the weeks after the late March Caixin leak.  One of them at least has said that it will avoid public announcements because it does not want to cause commotion in the market.

I wonder how far they will take this new "PR policy":

  1. The Chinese exchanges may give their clients advance warning of the bank withdrawal closure, or the closure will happen only on the May 10 deadline.  In that case I expect that there will be a rush by most Chinese clients to sell their bitcoin (which they cannot use for commerce in China, and probably do not believe it ever go to the moon) and withdraw the CNY while they can.  Other clients who have some connection to the West may choose to move their bitcoin to Western exchanges and continue trading there.  Abitragers, habitual or improvised, will use any CNY still in their accounts to buy cheap coins there and sell them in the West.  Then the price will drop in the Chinese exchanges, and the Western ones will follow.

  2. The Chinese exchanges will close CNY bank withdrawals before May 10, without advance warning.   Then many clients with CNY trapped in their accounts will try to buy bitcoin to move them out.  The price of bitcoin in China will probably rise sharply.  Arbitragers, insiders, and other clients who have other ways of withdrawing CNY will make handsome profits at the expense of ordinary clients.  Arbitrage may temporarily transfer some of that price increase to the West, but that will be counteracted by the pressure of other clients moving bitcoin to the West, even at a loss, to get their money out.  Since in the end the net amount of bitcoin in the Chinese exchanges must decrease, the latter effect must predominate, so the price in the West will decouple and fall while it rises in China.

  3. The Chinese exchanges may just shut down without any prior warning, or block bitcoin widthdrawals as well; so that both the CNY and bitcons of their clients will be trapped inside, except perhaps for some privileged users or some restricted non-bank channels.  This option seems very unlikely, considering what happened to the owners of the GBL exchange.

In any case, I imagine that some Chinese traders who keep most of their bitcoins in private wallets, outside the exchange, may want to sell them, since the withdrawal restrictions may take all the fun & profit out of the bitcoin speculation game.  Therfore some of those coins will also find their way to the Western exchanges.

[BitchicksHusband]

His hatred for our freedom knows no bounds, [ ... ]  He usually manages a semblance of sanity until his "libertarian" reaction formation is activated, whereupon all bets are off.

Good to see you airing those "academic" prejudices a little more openly again, prof.  Have the high priests of the global Bitcoin conspiracy been getting to you again?   Bitcoin could be your saviour but you're so terrified of some of its libertarian fans somehow taking complete control of this massive open-to-all consensus-based network that you'd rather dedicate your time to saving the world from those dangerous imaginary cultists [ ... ]

I think your political bias might be showing a tad. 

My sincere apologies if I ever gave the impression that I had any sympathy or respect whatsoever for the libertarian ideology.  If you care, I could try to remove any lingering doubts you may have about my opinions on the matter.

By the way, I am still trying to figure out what exactly is the "freedom" that the bitcoin "libertarians" are so obsessed about.

It seems that most of them are in the US or "US-like" countries, so it cannot be freedom of speech, religion, travel, residence, association, study, dress, drink, sex, marriage, work, property, trade, investment, enterprise, and many other basic freedoms that the citizens of those countries enjoy to a higher degree than most other people in the world (and that bitcoin cannot do anything about anyway).

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

For sure dinosaurs were discussing for quite a while what that burning thing was and how it will affect them.

The angry medieval mob with torches shouting, "Kill the dragon! Kill the dragon!"?

[octaft]

His hatred for our freedom knows no bounds, [ ... ]  He usually manages a semblance of sanity until his "libertarian" reaction formation is activated, whereupon all bets are off.

Good to see you airing those "academic" prejudices a little more openly again, prof.  Have the high priests of the global Bitcoin conspiracy been getting to you again?   Bitcoin could be your saviour but you're so terrified of some of its libertarian fans somehow taking complete control of this massive open-to-all consensus-based network that you'd rather dedicate your time to saving the world from those dangerous imaginary cultists [ ... ]

I think your political bias might be showing a tad. 

My sincere apologies if I ever gave the impression that I had any sympathy or respect whatsoever for the libertarian ideology.  If you care, I could try to remove any lingering doubts you may have about my opinions on the matter.

By the way, I am still trying to figure out what exactly is the "freedom" that the bitcoin "libertarians" are so obsessed about.

It seems that most of them are in the US or "US-like" countries, so it cannot be freedom of speech, religion, travel, residence, association, study, dress, drink, sex, marriage, work, property, trade, investment, enterprise, and many other basic freedoms that the citizens of those countries enjoy to a higher degree than most other people in the world (and that bitcoin cannot do anything about anyway).

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Freedom from taxes, of course.

[sporket]

...
So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Freedom from taxes, of course.

"We wanna be free!
We wanna be free to do what we wanna do.
We wanna be free to ride. We wanna be free to ride our machines without being hassled by The Man!
... And we wanna get loaded!!"

[lynn_402]

His hatred for our freedom knows no bounds, [ ... ]  He usually manages a semblance of sanity until his "libertarian" reaction formation is activated, whereupon all bets are off.

Good to see you airing those "academic" prejudices a little more openly again, prof.  Have the high priests of the global Bitcoin conspiracy been getting to you again?  Bitcoin could be your saviour but you're so terrified of some of its libertarian fans somehow taking complete control of this massive open-to-all consensus-based network that you'd rather dedicate your time to saving the world from those dangerous imaginary cultists [ ... ]

I think your political bias might be showing a tad.  

My sincere apologies if I ever gave the impression that I had any sympathy or respect whatsoever for the libertarian ideology.  If you care, I could try to remove any lingering doubts you may have about my opinions on the matter.

By the way, I am still trying to figure out what exactly is the "freedom" that the bitcoin "libertarians" are so obsessed about.

It seems that most of them are in the US or "US-like" countries, so it cannot be freedom of speech, religion, travel, residence, association, study, dress, drink, sex, marriage, work, property, trade, investment, enterprise, and many other basic freedoms that the citizens of those countries enjoy to a higher degree than most other people in the world (and that bitcoin cannot do anything about anyway).

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Freedom from bank bailouts and the continued devaluation of the dollar.

And freedom from having to let a central entithy - whose policies we disagree with in many ways - have total control over our means of exchange, which are perhaps the most important part of a civilized life.

Cryptocurrencies gives people control on their money -thus economical freedom-, while fiat is at the mercy of the whims of an irreasonable government which can't see more long-term than its term in office.

[Tzupy]

The impending (and almost certain) closure of the bank withdrawal channels of Chinese exchanges will inevitably lead to transfer of some of the coins that are now in their client accounts to the Western exchanges.  More coins, no new dollars, can only cause the price in the West to go down. The only question is by how much.

How exactly that will play out seems still uncertain.  The Chinese exchanges have been remarkably silent after the last PBoC move, in contrast to the weeks after the late March Caixin leak.  One of them at least has said that it will avoid public announcements because it does not want to cause commotion in the market.

I wonder how far they will take this new "PR policy":

  1. The Chinese exchanges may give their clients advance warning of the bank withdrawal closure, or the closure will happen only on the May 10 deadline.  In that case I expect that there will be a rush by most Chinese clients to sell their bitcoin (which they cannot use for commerce in China, and probably do not believe it ever go to the moon) and withdraw the CNY while they can.  Other clients who have some connection to the West may choose to move their bitcoin to Western exchanges and continue trading there.  Abitragers, habitual or improvised, will use any CNY still in their accounts to buy cheap coins there and sell them in the West.  Then the price will drop in the Chinese exchanges, and the Western ones will follow.

  2. The Chinese exchanges will close CNY bank withdrawals before May 10, without advance warning.   Then many clients with CNY trapped in their accounts will try to buy bitcoin to move them out.  The price of bitcoin in China will probably rise sharply.  Arbitragers, insiders, and other clients who have other ways of withdrawing CNY will make handsome profits at the expense of ordinary clients.  Arbitrage may temporarily transfer some of that price increase to the West, but that will be counteracted by the pressure of other clients moving bitcoin to the West, even at a loss, to get their money out.  Since in the end the net amount of bitcoin in the Chinese exchanges must decrease, the latter effect must predominate, so the price in the West will decouple and fall while it rises in China.

  3. The Chinese exchanges may just shut down without any prior warning, or block bitcoin widthdrawals as well; so that both the CNY and bitcons of their clients will be trapped inside, except perhaps for some privileged users or some restricted non-bank channels.  This option seems very unlikely, considering what happened to the owners of the GBL exchange.

In any case, I imagine that some Chinese traders who keep most of their bitcoins in private wallets, outside the exchange, may want to sell them, since the withdrawal restrictions may take all the fun & profit out of the bitcoin speculation game.  Therfore some of those coins will also find their way to the Western exchanges.

Good analysis, I think along the same lines, but was too lazy to write this down.
The big unknown is how high % of the Chinese bitcoins will be sold on Western exchanges.
If a lot, then we can expect something like 50k+ BTC ask sum on Bitstamp and the bids below 5M$, at the bottom of course.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

pure example of why control and centralisation is useless and can be avoided with minimum harm:



http://www.tuxboard.com/photos/2014/04/pas-besoin-de-rond-point.gif

[adamstgBit]

pure example of why control and centralisation is useless and can be avoided with minimum harm:



http://www.tuxboard.com/photos/2014/04/pas-besoin-de-rond-point.gif

wtf is this for real somewhere?

[hdbuck]

pure example of why control and centralisation is useless and can be avoided with minimum harm:



http://www.tuxboard.com/photos/2014/04/pas-besoin-de-rond-point.gif

wtf is this for real somewhere?

yeah i guess so, probably in india or somewhere like that with no road signals

[Cassius]

pure example of why control and centralisation is useless and can be avoided with minimum harm:



http://www.tuxboard.com/photos/2014/04/pas-besoin-de-rond-point.gif

Blind luck? You can't really call a roundabout centralisation.
Not the best example of subsidiarity since I'm guessing quite a few people have ended up in hospital on that road. Just not in the ~20 frames of that gif.

[edwardspitz]

So much delusion here. Look at 1h charts for Stamp and Huobi. Do you notice anything odd in the last two days?

Yes, last night there was a rather large dump on Stamp but Huobi and OKCoin did not take notice. Maybe the traders on Huobi and OKCoin were busy with other things at that time. Is this what you are referring to?

[aminorex]

So, what exactly are those "freedoms" that the "libertarians" miss, and hope to get through bitcoin?

Rule of law, the freedom from slavery to the whims of unelected beaurocrats and illegitimate claims to the authority of law made by corrupt elected ones, would be nice.  To disillusion you, I offer an undispute fact, expressed in unusually frank and clear language:  The U.S. enslaves more people than any other nation on earth; there are more black males in slavery today than before the U.S. civil war.

[hdbuck]

pure example of why control and centralisation is useless and can be avoided with minimum harm:



http://www.tuxboard.com/photos/2014/04/pas-besoin-de-rond-point.gif

Blind luck? You can't really call a roundabout centralisation.
Not the best example of subsidiarity since I'm guessing quite a few people have ended up in hospital on that road. Just not in the ~20 frames of that gif.

hmm i dont know, i mean, sure there must have been people ending up in hospital, but i dont think it outnumbered the people ending up in hospital in countries with road signals..
The point being adaptation. but yeah, im no expert, just trying to provide you folks with some cool illustrations