Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

you sold at 430. I bought at 430. you lose.

My average buy in is <$40. My average sell price is ~$400.  If that's losing, I'll take it.

How about this one.

I trade 1000s of bitcoins. Chessnut trades single digits. If that's losing, I'll take it.

Billy, I wasnt accusing you, it's windjc that I have that argument with.
yeah no problem windjc. you are good to have around.

Hey Chessnut. You wanna make a bet on whether Houbi rallys past 3500 from here?  Lets say I win if Houbi makes lows lower than 2555 and you win it makes gets to 3255 first. We are 50% right in between the two at the moment.

I'll bet any amount you can afford.

For fun.

Im already betting on the market. Im not going to mess around with escrow, unless you want to honour the bet.

Mess around with escrow? What does that mean? Sounds like a silly excuse.

I will honour the bet if we agree. Will you?

JUST bet like .01 BTC or some symbolic lesser amount.  Then NO need to worry about escrow.. do it on the HONOR system... if there is any such thing left in this internet world.

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[JayJuanGee]

PM me if anyone needs escrow. I get tired just keeping up on this thread and end up skipping entire pages.

Apparently bulls are incapable of following through on a bet and terrified of escrow.  They sure are good at posting all kinds of charts and lines about how we are going "Up, Up, Up!" though.

I would bet you, but i never feel confident enough about BTC price direction...

Additionally, I usually do NOT say that I will bet anyone... unless i feel pretty confident.  I would feel more comfortable betting on some kind of long term thing rather than short term thing.. such as BTC will make it to $600 before making it to $320... but I am NOT even sure that I feel confident about that, at the moment.

[chessnut]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106. 

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

[JayJuanGee]

I don't understand why a bull would want to make a bet when they can just hold bitcoins securely.  A bear would be more likely to want to make a bet because to short the market he has to trust a broker the whole time.

Yeah... maybe in the end, BEARS are more likely to bet b/c they are hedging... a lot of the bulls are already betting by HODLIN....

[windjc]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

And if you are talking about a betting market giving you the EXACT same bet for 1 to 3 odds then you are a fool not to take it if you even believe half of what you are posting in here.

[uhoh]

There's gotta be a friendly 1BTC bet here surely, backed by a gentleman's agreement, no escrow. 

[chessnut]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106. 

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

[JayJuanGee]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

And if you are talking about a betting market giving you the EXACT same bet for 1 to 3 odds then you are a fool not to take it if you even believe half of what you are posting in here.

If you use bitcoins as your measuring amount, then if bitcoins go up, the winner will win more and if the price goes down the loser will lose less.  So, odds already seem to be built in favor of the one who is betting that the price will go up.  No?

[chessnut]

If you use bitcoins as your measuring amount, then if bitcoins go up, the winner will win more and if the price goes down the loser will lose less.  So, odds already seem to be built in favor of the one who is betting that the price will go up.  No?

Thats true, the odds would be 1:x-15% lets say, 1:4-15%.

[windjc]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than going long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

I'm calling you out on this one just in case anyone reading this thread bought your drivel and excuses.

[chessnut]

Ill finish this off later, I have to go to work.

[Davyd05]

Why do we always regress to bickering...I love you all, may we all find wealth and happiness in our own ways.

[chessnut]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106. 

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than doing long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

if you dont offer me 1:4 odds, I can use the capital on leverage to make more money on the same bet, at lower risk too. fact. Im not going to stuff around like this.

[JayJuanGee]

If you use bitcoins as your measuring amount, then if bitcoins go up, the winner will win more and if the price goes down the loser will lose less.  So, odds already seem to be built in favor of the one who is betting that the price will go up.  No?

Thats true, the odds would be 1:x-15% lets say, 1:4-15%.

I may be missing something, but my point is that if you are betting in BTC... then the BTC will be worth more upon winning and the BTC will be worth less upon losing.  Why would you need additional odds, unless you are going to measure the bet in dollars... so say that you want to bet the equivalent of $20.  If you pick a small enough amount, then it does NOT really matter about the money, you are purely betting against your nemesis about which one of you is correct about the direction of the market.

[windjc]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than doing long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

if you dont offer me 1:4 odds, I can use the capital on leverage to make more money on the same bet, at lower risk too. fact. Im not going to stuff around like this.

And the moral of the story here folks is that Chessnut would take money out on leverage to do this trade if he truly believed we were going to break out of this bear market.  But he doesn't and so he avoids doing that and he avoids my bet offer.

Always watch what people DO not what they SAY.

[JayJuanGee]

What? The odds are 1 to 1.

We are 50% between 2555 and 3106.  

Which one do we hit first?

As you have less coins than me, I deferred the choice of amount to you.

why the fuck would i bet with you on 1:1 odds when the market is offering me 1:3!?

So you will make 300% profit if we get to 3106??

What the hell are you talking about???

Take the bet and win and make 100% profit on a 15% move.

What universe are you living in right now?

If a go long here, ad it goes to 3500, I make $300. if I short here, and it goes to 2500, I make $100. not to mention, I can reverse my position if fundamentals change on the market, I cant reverse my bet. You better offer me 4:1 odds at least or it's not worth my time.

If you make a bet you believe in based on 100% of your posts you make a 100% profit on <15% market move.

Thats better than doing long or going short.

You are a fucking idiot.

if you dont offer me 1:4 odds, I can use the capital on leverage to make more money on the same bet, at lower risk too. fact. Im not going to stuff around like this.

And the moral of the story here folks is that Chessnut would take money out on leverage to do this trade if he truly believed we were going to break out of this bear market.  But he doesn't and so he avoids doing that and he avoids my bet offer.

Always watch what people DO not what they SAY.

There will likely be plenty of opportunities for future bets on the direction of BTC (or its prices), but I really think that if someone feels fairly confident about the direction of the BTC market, that person should be willing to enter into some small bet... even the equivalent of a few dollars.... then no need to worry about escrow or about whether you could be leveraging that money or whatever,.. though it may be safer, even with the equivalent of a few dollars to safeguard it with a third party...  ...

If we are in the business of investing in BTC, then we all should have a few dollars that we could spare and even tie up for a period.  if we are expressing considerable confidence about our prediction(s)...   When it comes to short-term BTC prices, I rarely have my moments of confidence.

[Raystonn]

I'll make a bet.  If BTC goes to $0, you win.  If BTC goes to $1,000,000 first, I win.  I offer 10,000 BTC if you win.  But if I win, you just owe me 1.

[billyjoeallen]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

If I was going to bet, I would bet that price is going nowhere. Not up or down by much. We have inadvertently achieved price stability and it's boring as hell. Who wants to bet that we'll see $500 or $400 in less than a week? I'll bet 0.1 BTC, 1:1 odds, no escrow.

I might take the bet if it were before May 10th.

I think this market still might have 1 big move in it before then.

If one or more of the exchanges has all their deposit options closed, we will see $400.

And we might see $500 in a rally around May 10th.