Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[roslinpl]

See this is what I'm talking about. Why is it that the closer we inch towards the downtrend line where the huge sudden downspikes occur and the traps are about to be sprung, the more bullish people get. It's always at this point people get extra bullish and start making references to trains, etc. Meanwhile it is the worst possible time to trade.

Well I agree that this is not a best time to trade indeed. I am not making any references to trains or rockets yet as I know price may go down in next hour..
I just think after this boring day 440-450, to see >450 is quite exiting and yes - makes me feel more bullish but I understand that ATM situation is not yet very good

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[ShroomsKit]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

[roslinpl]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

IMO - there is (almost) always good time to buy BTC but not always good time to sell

[Nightowlace]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

IMO - there is (almost) always good time to buy BTC but not always good time to sell

^^^^^

[roslinpl]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

IMO - there is (almost) always good time to buy BTC but not always good time to sell

^^^^^

  I understand you agree with this sentence As most of us perhaps will.

[Raystonn]

I want to thank all the fearful for making it much easier to accumulate this afternoon/evening.  Time for dinner.

[OldGeek]

I could completely wrong, it is likely that I am, but I think that there are a large number of automated traders on both Bitstamp and BTC-e.  Some while ago these bot-users determined that the Chinese markets could/would serve as nice triggers for the other exchanges.  ++ for a long while it was Gox that served up similar triggers ++

In our increasingly nervous market the bots detect a movement on, say, Houbi and automatically follow suit.  That combination is enough for human traders to climb on the bandwagon and reinforce the initial move.  Then the more rational/reasoned traders counter-move and the initial trajectory is reversed. 

I believe that these oscillations will continue until: 1.  There is no 'other market' that serves up a trigger; or, 2.  Confidence is regained, the nervous market ends, and a true vector forms.

$0.02

[solex]

Ah. I remember that monster. The best time to use it is in the middle of the night when there aren't many cars!

[JorgeStolfi]

Better is just to ignore it.

Shun advice
at any price -
that's what I call
good advice.
-- Piet Hein, /Grooks/

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

My crystal ball sees Bitcoin-Central as the next exchange to go belly-up. And, for those you love pork bellies or, for that matter, underage boys' bellies, here's another reason I suggest holding off buying for now: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=590970.0

Paymium's davout, Boussac and Grandval will soon be in damage control mode, meanwhile the media will be all over the paedo- who'll be at the helm of Mt Coxs. Looks like another busy week.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

I could completely wrong, it is likely that I am, but I think that there are a large number of automated traders on both Bitstamp and BTC-e.  Some while ago these bot-users determined that the Chinese markets could/would serve as nice triggers for the other exchanges.  ++ for a long while it was Gox that served up similar triggers ++

In our increasingly nervous market the bots detect a movement on, say, Houbi and automatically follow suit.  That combination is enough for human traders to climb on the bandwagon and reinforce the initial move.  Then the more rational/reasoned traders counter-move and the initial trajectory is reversed. 

I believe that these oscillations will continue until: 1.  There is no 'other market' that serves up a trigger; or, 2.  Confidence is regained, the nervous market ends, and a true vector forms.

$0.02

Or another possibility: market makers selling BTC short.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday May 01

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was quite good (S = 0.0028, W = 0.851), but again below the previous trend line (by 67 CNY).  It is now clear that tere was a break in the trend between Apr/27 and Apr/28 (or, rather, there was no clear trend from Apr/25 to Apr/27).  The last three points Apr/28--30 are good and define a shifted decaying exponential A + B * Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2820.80, B = -105.80, and Q = 0.56522.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.23 CNY/USD. It was 6.22 on Apr/30 and 6.25 on Apr/29.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 02:26 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-30, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction was again too pessimistic because it did not detect the break in the trend:

Huobi's predicted price: 2720 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2787 CNY
Error: 67 CNY (~11 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 439 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 448 USD
Error: 9 USD
 
NOTE:
  "Experience is that marvelous thing that enables you to recognize a
  mistake when you make it again."  -- F. P. Jones

[ShroomsKit]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

My crystal ball sees Bitcoin-Central as the next exchange to go belly-up. And, for those you love pork bellies or, for that matter, underage boys' bellies, here's another reason I suggest holding off buying for now: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=590970.0

Paymium's davout, Boussac and Grandval will soon be in damage control mode, meanwhile the media will be all over the paedo- who'll be at the helm of Mt Coxs. Looks like another busy week.

What?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[roslinpl]

Explanation

Very nice! Price went up really nicely from last hour.

Are we going to stay with this ++ trend for a day?

[OldGeek]

I could completely wrong, it is likely that I am, but I think that there are a large number of automated traders on both Bitstamp and BTC-e.  Some while ago these bot-users determined that the Chinese markets could/would serve as nice triggers for the other exchanges.  ++ for a long while it was Gox that served up similar triggers ++

In our increasingly nervous market the bots detect a movement on, say, Houbi and automatically follow suit.  That combination is enough for human traders to climb on the bandwagon and reinforce the initial move.  Then the more rational/reasoned traders counter-move and the initial trajectory is reversed.  

I believe that these oscillations will continue until: 1.  There is no 'other market' that serves up a trigger; or, 2.  Confidence is regained, the nervous market ends, and a true vector forms.

$0.02

Or another possibility: market makers selling BTC short.

I didn't mention whether they were going long or short.  Just that the bots seemed to be following Huobi on the initial movement.

edit:  this latest move appears to have started on Stamp.

[JayJuanGee]

@BitChick...what's Risto's SSS plan?

It feels like we've been under 500 for an age but its only seven days...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

take it all with a grain of salt of course, but if the price keeps doing what historically it's been doing, then it's a pretty solid plan.

I plan on taking my second divesting at the 5000+ range, perhaps 4 or 5 coins to get a new car...

(I choose to consider the coins I sold above 1K as my "first divesting". I purposefully ignore all the coins I sold from 10 to 200 because those kind of mistakes just eat you up inside.

I think the Rpietila's SSS plan is decent, and the discussion in that SSS thread is good, too.

 Ultimately, a person needs a plan that contains objective triggers for taking profit distributions, and a person should customize the plan to his/her needs while, hopefully, any customization would retain many of the principles, goals and objectives outlined in the SSS plan.

Certainly, any investor could make mistakes to attempt to trade BTC when the prices are going up (prior to being sufficiently in the black  - such as attempting to trade while prices are below $200); however, the raking should help to alleviate any temptation to panic sell at other times... even though tempted to use rake money to buy back in (which is probably o.k. so long as the whole BTC thing does NOT go belly up and then you have failed to spend money on yourself and to rake some of the profits). 

If a person had raked at $1,000, then there really should NOT be a need to rake again while we are these kinds of BTC price doldrums.  At the same time, having the next rake to be triggered at $5,000 seems to be a bit too high, especially since $5,000 is 5X the previous rake price - and if we never reach $5k (or take several years to reach $5K), then you could be kicking yourself for not raking or taking some of the profits in a more timely manner. 

Hypothetically, if I were in your position, Shmadz, and I had raked some profits when BTC prices were at $1,000 then I would consider raking some MOAR profits at somewhere between $2K and $3K.... in the event that BTC prices do NOT reach $5k in the near future.  Personally, I believe that we should NOT be so pie in the sky about the spaceship that we may fail to catch if we attempt to be too greedy.

Surely, none of these BTC prices matters are certain, and the raking plan that i had formulated for myself does involve some reinvestment of the raked amount upon certain triggers.  I have NOT worked out the exact details, b/c it seems quite hypothetical for me at the moment ... since my BTC portfolio is still in the red... but it is good to have a tentative raking plan in place b/c if prices shoot to the moon, I have some ideas about what price points are going to trigger my raking.

[exponential]

The green staircase on Btc-e looks nice 

[OldGeek]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

My crystal ball sees Bitcoin-Central as the next exchange to go belly-up. And, for those you love pork bellies or, for that matter, underage boys' bellies, here's another reason I suggest holding off buying for now: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=590970.0

Paymium's davout, Boussac and Grandval will soon be in damage control mode, meanwhile the media will be all over the paedo- who'll be at the helm of Mt Coxs. Looks like another busy week.

What?

Yes, What?  I don't know the personalities you write about.  A Cliff's notes version would be nice for me.

[ShroomsKit]

Ok, i'm giving everyone thumbs up to start buying. My crystall ball says it's time.

(Edit: please noobs, i no nothing more than anyone else, just messing around).

My crystal ball sees Bitcoin-Central as the next exchange to go belly-up. And, for those you love pork bellies or, for that matter, underage boys' bellies, here's another reason I suggest holding off buying for now: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=590970.0

Paymium's davout, Boussac and Grandval will soon be in damage control mode, meanwhile the media will be all over the paedo- who'll be at the helm of Mt Coxs. Looks like another busy week.

What?

Yes, What?  I don't know the personalities you write about.  A Cliff's notes version would be nice for me.

Looks like some personal witch hunt to me that won't affect the price whatsoever.