Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

[windjc]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

[dreamspark]

Also with the Chinese exchanges having no leveraged trading and now fee's, why would they not move to a platform such as Bitfinex where they can leverage trade all they want.

If Huobi et al do stay open they will just become a ghost town following the other exchanges on nearly 0 volume. Thats whats great about a decentralised world currency 

[dreamspark]

The bulls are behind the train trying to push-start it again.

Yeah, this doesn't make sense to me. The "bulls" should already own bitcoin. And its hard to get money into the exchanges, so the "bulls" aren't buying new coins.

That's why I think this is short covering. I think shorts were taking profits as quickly as they could.

Unlike the rally last week, there is no selling pressure, no dumping. Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

About 1000BTC of shorts have covered on Finex as well but I think  a lot more of them could be covered if this continues.

[seleme]

30$ up, nothing significant yet.

Mind you, I have some shorts, wouldn't like it to continue before I cover them.

[TERA]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

[windjc]

30$ up, nothing significant yet.

Mind you, I have some shorts, wouldn't like it to continue before I cover them.

$30 isn't a lot, true. However, it's the velocity of the rise that gives me pause. There has been no resistance.

Now, that would make sense to me if traders who would normally short this "oversell" are afraid to enter shorts them might lose on in the next two days.

Meanwhile, people just hodl.

[windjc]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

[windjc]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So you are theorizing that when the fees get raised for HFT, that a lot of fiat money is going to leave the station?

[TERA]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So you are theorizing that when the fees get raised for HFT, that a lot of fiat money is going to leave the station?

yes

[dreamspark]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So Bitfinex?

[Cassius]

yes, huobi is above 2800 yens

yens is japanese currency and reminds everyone about mtgox. chinese currency is called yuans.

slowly creeping TDM

One does not simply 'creep' TDM.

[TERA]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So Bitfinex?

Finex has fees.

[Cassius]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

This also implies that they won't be so concerned about operating on foreign exchanges. Presumably sending money abroad isn't such a big deal for professional traders as it would be for Zhao Public.
Do we have any evidence that Chinese money is moving to other exchanges?

[Asrael999]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So Bitfinex?

Its not a simple proposition to transfer money from mainland China to Hong Kong - the $50,000 personal limit still applies, and there are also rules for corporates. Also one imagines that Bitfinex's KYC process might be rather more rigorous than those employed by Chinese domestic exchanges which might put some of the domestic Chinese off from using them.

[rpietila]

$30 isn't a lot, true. However, it's the velocity of the rise that gives me pause. There has been no resistance.

Now, that would make sense to me if traders who would normally short this "oversell" are afraid to enter shorts them might lose on in the next two days.

Meanwhile, people just hodl.

0.17% of bitcoins were traded (Bitstamp only) since 420 to effect a 6.8% price rise. The price inelasticity of supply is 39:1.

We have been enjoying the "sticky price" era for some weeks. Once the supply is no longer there, the tiniest demand kicks us out of the channel, very likely resulting in a snowball effect, so many times before seen with Bitcoin.

[dreamspark]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

So Bitfinex?

Its not a simple proposition to transfer money from mainland China to Hong Kong - the $50,000 personal limit still applies, and there are also rules for corporates. Also one imagines that Bitfinex's KYC process might be rather more rigorous than those employed by Chinese domestic exchanges which might put some of the domestic Chinese off from using them.

I agree to a point, I dont think it would be too hard for the sort of market maker that TERA is referring to to circumvent that in some way. The issue of fee's is a valid one.

[Kramerc]

Its like the sell function on Houbi has been turned off.

Thinks. This reminded me to check the Stoch RSI. I forgot about that nifty feature.

My biggest question is this: who is going to sell if they can no longer short? Are people actually still on the exchange that are going to want their money out in the form of fiat? I can see people leaving the exchanges by removing their bitcoin. But are people in China going to permanently leave bitcoin, sell and take their fiat away, who have not already done so?

And will new mined coins still go to the Chinese exchanges if its difficult to withdrawal?

You have to keep in mind that the vast majority of Chinese bitcoin traders are professional shadow currency traders and market makers - they are not bitcoiners. They do not want a long term investment - they want to find somewhere else where they can do their HFT, run their bots, and such.

And you know this… how exactly? It makes no sense whatsoever. The ones that are professional traders and are not interested in owning bitcoin have left the ecosystem at much higher prices. Why would they risk losing coins, having fiat stuck, or even being outlawed in a market where volatility is contracting? Traders left on the exchanges are uberbulls trying to increase their btc holdings up to the last moment possible.