Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[deadley]

buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.

Dont you think its normal phenomena, when we going upside we talk about only upside and when we going downside then its same we talk only downside.

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[fonzie]

buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.

Dont you think its normal phenomena, when we going upside we talk about only upside and when we going downside then its same we talk only downside.

The difference between bulls and bears in runups or crashes is that bulls laugh about bears and insult them whereas bears mostly just laugh about Bitcoin.

[Miz4r]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

[samsonn25]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price

[N12]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.

[bitgeek]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price

That's right, just buy and hold,it will eventually get back up. The only losers in bitcoin are those who react to FUD.

[Tzupy]

So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.

I am not sure what you mean, but: from all I have read, I am quite convinced that the November rally was entirely due to demand in the Chinese exchanges.  Ditto for the December crash and partial recovery, the decline from February to April, the stagnation in May, and the the mini-rally a couple weeks ago.  Not sure yet about the current decline, but it seems to have coinided with a new push to cut out the remaining channels of yuan deposit to the exchanges.  

I don't know how many coins are still in the hands of Chinese speculators and investors, but, if the markets there were to close and those coins returned to the Western market (which they probably would, since speculation seems to be the last significant utility of bitcoin in China), I am quite convinced that the price would drop to somewhere between 80$ (an estimate of where it would be if China had never entered the game) and 350$ (which it briefly reached after one of the PBoC scares).

As for Mr. Lee's claims: his exchange BTC-China used to have the largest volume in China until the December crash. Since that time it has become insignificant, while Huobi, OKCoin, and the other Nameless Ones became dominant.  (Huobi in particular seems to have bumped its volume just when BTC-China suddenly lost theirs).  I watched that video and heard the claims, but did not see the evidence. His being elected to the board of the Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, together with Mr. Pierce, did not help convince me.

A few comments: the November 'rally' was the mania phase of the bubble, it would have happened anyway, but several months later.
The Chinese mania could have lasted a bit longer if the PBoC wouldn't have decided to cut the funding to the exchanges.
But the PBoC doesn't want to create a massive bitcoin crash, because of the potential social unrest associated with such a crash.
So for now the Chinese exchanges are in limbo IMO, they can't truly fund another significant uptrend, but don't want to start capitulation yet.
I already expressed my opinion that the closure of Chinese exchanges could drive the price to 100$ or below.
However, they seem to plan a move outside the jurisdiction of the PBoC, which may be a turbulent market period, because
they can easily transfer bitcoins from servers in mainland China, but customers' yuan could be tough to transfer to a new friendlier home.

[N12]

Not that anyone here gives a shit about technical analysis except when it confirms their biases, but whatever.

[Miz4r]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price

Yes thanks captain obvious. But if we break below 530 we will go back to 450 and maybe lower so I'm not going to keep holding this bag through that. I have other bags I'm still holding though, but they're $100/coin bags so not as heavy.

[N12]

It's a really tiresome statement. You do lose if the price goes down and you haven't realized the loss. You have fewer options now. You have no access to your former wealth and your purchasing power has declined. Will it be undone in the future? Maybe. But you are trapped in the present.

Remember, everything is still denominated in FILTHY FIAT.

[roslinpl]

I think ++ is coming.

Just compare a volume with a price - and you will understand, that we will have ++ to a price very soon

And even another China Ban will not change it

[TERA]

Guys chill out it's not just going to break through both of these supports in one go right away, right here where they are intersecting. I think if they break then it will break them both separately on separate occasions starting in at least a couple weeks.

[N12]

Bitstamp is higher than Bitfinex. Think on that.

[boumalo]

Not that anyone here gives a shit about technical analysis except when it confirms their biases, but whatever.

When it is going down you can trace a trend line going down!


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Topic Summary
Posted on: Today at 11:33:27 AM New message Posted by: Blitz­
Insert Quote
Bitstamp is higher than Bitfinex. Think on that. Shocked
Posted on: Today at 11:32:58 AM Posted by: TERA
Insert Quote
(https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtsxKbFC.png&t=541&c=SFVTWqiKpFwxZg) (FORUM: disabled on this page for security.)

Guys chill out it's not just going to break through both of these supports in one go right away, right here where they are intersecting. I think if they break then it will break them both separately on separate occasions starting in at least a couple weeks.
Posted on: Today at 11:31:08 AM Posted by: roslinpl
Insert Quote
I think ++ is coming.

Just compare a volume with a price - and you will understand, that we will have ++ to a price very soon Smiley

And even another China Ban will not change it Wink
Posted on: Today at 11:28:58 AM Posted by: Blitz­
Insert Quote
It's a really tiresome statement. You do lose if the price goes down and you haven't realized the loss. You have fewer options now. You have no access to your former wealth and your purchasing power has declined. Will it be undone in the future? Maybe. But you are trapped in the present.

Remember, everything is still denominated in FILTHY FIAT.
Posted on: Today at 11:25:37 AM Posted by: Miz4r
Insert Quote
Quote from: samsonn25 on Today at 11:17:41 AM
Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price

Yes thanks captain obvious. But if we break below 530 we will go back to 450 and maybe lower so I'm not going to keep holding this bag through that. I have other bags I'm still holding though, but they're $100/coin bags so not as heavy. Wink
Posted on: Today at 11:22:44 AM Posted by: Blitz­
Insert Quote
Not that anyone here gives a shit about technical analysis except when it confirms their biases, but whatever.

(https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwbndAB1.png&t=541&c=EtsscuMNfiv5Zw) (FORUM: disabled on this page for security.)
Posted on: Today at 11:21:04 AM Posted by: Tzupy
Insert Quote
Quote from: JorgeStolfi on Today at 11:03:31 AM
Quote from: sidhujag on Today at 04:50:56 AM
So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.
I am not sure what you mean, but: from all I have read, I am quite convinced that the November rally was entirely due to demand in the Chinese exchanges.  Ditto for the December crash and partial recovery, the decline from February to April, the stagnation in May, and the the mini-rally a couple weeks ago.  Not sure yet about the current decline, but it seems to have coinided with a new push to cut out the remaining channels of yuan deposit to the exchanges. 

I don't know how many coins are still in the hands of Chinese speculators and investors, but, if the markets there were to close and those coins returned to the Western market (which they probably would, since speculation seems to be the last significant utility of bitcoin in China), I am quite convinced that the price would drop to somewhere between 80$ (an estimate of where it would be if China had never entered the game) and 350$ (which it briefly reached after one of the PBoC scares).

As for Mr. Lee's claims: his exchange BTC-China used to have the largest volume in China until the December crash. Since that time it has become insignificant, while Huobi, OKCoin, and the other Nameless Ones became dominant.  (Huobi in particular seems to have bumped its volume just when BTC-China suddenly lost theirs).  I watched that video and heard the claims, but did not see the evidence. His being elected to the board of the Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, together with Mr. Pierce, did not help convince me.


A few comments: the November 'rally' was the mania phase of the bubble, it would have happened anyway, but several months later.
The Chinese mania could have lasted a bit longer if the PBoC wouldn't have decided to cut the funding to the exchanges.
But the PBoC doesn't want to create a massive bitcoin crash, because of the potential social unrest associated with such a crash.
So for now the Chinese exchanges are in limbo IMO, they can't truly fund another significant uptrend, but don't want to start capitulation yet.
I already expressed my opinion that the closure of Chinese exchanges could drive the price to 100$ or below.
However, they seem to plan a move outside the jurisdiction of the PBoC, which may be a turbulent market period, because
they can easily transfer bitcoins from servers in mainland China, but customers' yuan could be tough to transfer to a new friendlier home.
Posted on: Today at 11:20:35 AM Posted by: bitgeek
Insert Quote
Quote from: samsonn25 on Today at 11:17:41 AM
Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price
That's right, just buy and hold,it will eventually get back up. The only losers in bitcoin are those who react to FUD.
Posted on: Today at 11:20:11 AM Posted by: Blitz­
Insert Quote
Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.
Posted on: Today at 11:17:41 AM Posted by: samsonn25
Insert Quote
Quote from: Miz4r on Today at 11:14:42 AM
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

You only lose If you sell lower than purchase price
Posted on: Today at 11:14:42 AM Posted by: Miz4r
Insert Quote
I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.
Posted on: Today at 11:14:10 AM Posted by: fonzie
Insert Quote
Quote from: deadley on Today at 11:11:59 AM
Quote from: tarmi on Today at 10:40:58 AM
buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.



Dont you think its normal phenomena, when we going upside we talk about only upside and when we going downside then its same we talk only downside.

The difference between bulls and bears in runups or crashes is that bulls laugh about bears and insult them whereas bears mostly just laugh about Bitcoin.
Posted on: Today at 11:11:59 AM Posted by: deadley
Insert Quote
Quote from: tarmi on Today at 10:40:58 AM
buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.



Dont you think its normal phenomena, when we going upside we talk about only upside and when we going downside then its same we talk only downside.
Posted on: Today at 11:03:31 AM Posted by: JorgeStolfi
Insert Quote
Quote from: sidhujag on Today at 04:50:56 AM
So essentially we can say either China has 10x more interest than the rest of the world or the numbers are cooked up if usd is isolated from yuan or rmb. What I care about is money coming out of fiat and into btc.
I am not sure what you mean, but: from all I have read, I am quite convinced that the November rally was entirely due to demand in the Chinese exchanges.  Ditto for the December crash and partial recovery, the decline from February to April, the stagnation in May, and the the mini-rally a couple weeks ago.  Not sure yet about the current decline, but it seems to have coinided with a new push to cut out the remaining channels of yuan deposit to the exchanges. 

I don't know how many coins are still in the hands of Chinese speculators and investors, but, if the markets there were to close and those coins returned to the Western market (which they probably would, since speculation seems to be the last significant utility of bitcoin in China), I am quite convinced that the price would drop to somewhere between 80$ (an estimate of where it would be if China had never entered the game) and 350$ (which it briefly reached after one of the PBoC scares).

As for Mr. Lee's claims: his exchange BTC-China used to have the largest volume in China until the December crash. Since that time it has become insignificant, while Huobi, OKCoin, and the other Nameless Ones became dominant.  (Huobi in particular seems to have bumped its volume just when BTC-China suddenly lost theirs).  I watched that video and heard the claims, but did not see the evidence. His being elected to the board of the Shrem Karpelès & Friends Foundation, together with Mr. Pierce, did not help convince me.
Posted on: Today at 11:00:57 AM Posted by: ChartBuddy
Insert Quote
(https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rtcons.com%2Fwall%2Fbitstamp.16236.10.small.png%3F1%3D2&t=541&c=2DNfYdXFn7Yy7Q) (FORUM: disabled on this page for security.) (http://images.weserv.nl?url=www.rtcons.com/wall/bitstamp.16236.10.png)
Explanation (http://www.rtcons.com/wall/explanation.html)
Posted on: Today at 10:40:58 AM Posted by: tarmi
Insert Quote
buhahaha, all the bears already talking about 300~400, and they didnt break not even the 540 support yet. at the weekend day.

Posted on: Today at 10:40:04 AM Posted by: fonzie
Insert Quote
This has nothing at all to do with the FBI Coins. !
Posted on: Today at 10:37:23 AM Posted by: yrtrnc
Insert Quote
There's alot going for BTC right now. I dont see the news about FBI really affecting the market anymore than this. If anything it should be seen as positive. Since the US government has once again accepted BTC.
Posted on: Today at 10:33:43 AM Posted by: fonzie
Insert Quote
(https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdietrolldie.files.wordpress.com%2F2012%2F09%2Fss_prenda1.jpg&t=541&c=jnHAgU8PI0LxBA) (FORUM: disabled on this page for security.)

GHashinese Torpedo hits USS Bitcoin. Lot more to come! Admiral Finex already wounded!
Posted on: Today at 10:27:47 AM Posted by: samsonn25
Insert Quote
Yes long term. This Has Been Established and tested many times since last year. Of course short term there are higher support levels.
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It may, we'll see

[fonzie]

Bitstamp is higher than Bitfinex. Think on that.

BTC-E leadin! Bitstamp bullish market buys happenin. Bitfinex is irritated.

[Erdogan]

It's a really tiresome statement. You do lose if the price goes down and you haven't realized the loss. You have fewer options now. You have no access to your former wealth and your purchasing power has declined. Will it be undone in the future? Maybe. But you are trapped in the present.

Remember, everything is still denominated in FILTHY FIAT.

Denominated in whatever, I have a loss from the ATH till now. Had I sold at ATH, I would have more value. It's a loss. You have the same with a house, if it goes down even temporarily. There are lots of excuses, like I can still live in it and so on. The difference is that the house is in a thin market, and you know the value only when you sell it (if then, you still have the excuse of bad luck). Bitcoin is a thick market, there are always buyers. The mantra of "it's not a loss until you sell" is a deception.

[Parazyd]

I hear my train 'a comin'!

[Miz4r]

I just bought some coins at $555, I think we're going up from here. If we break convincingly below 530 on Stamp I will take my losses.

Short term, there's a descending wedge in process, plus bullish divergences in MACD/RSI in various timeframes, and declining volume. I don't think there is much selling power left even if we take out the former low, but medium term is another story.

Yeah I noticed those divergences that's why I bought, and also because I think 530 will hold and being confident enough about it to put some money on it. But I'm curious as to why you think medium term we may be seeing lower lows? I tend to think we will most likely see $800 and perhaps test $1000 again before the end of this year. A new ATH and bubble perhaps in 2015, but not too soon.

[ShroomsKit]

Why is still going down?

Because people are extremely scared. As soon as the price goes up someone will dump on it, Chinese FUD will be posted, a pool reaches 51% etc. There are people working non stop on trying to take the value of Bitcoin down and right now they control the market. Any hint of bad news atm and the sheep completely panic. A lot of the selling currently is because of "i better sell now before someone else sells". As always the idiots create their own problem. Of course this will change again but when...nobody knows.

There are people saying about price under 300 in few days, im afraid but im not going to sell. Im like the captain of a ship, if it goes down i will go down with it.

They are the resident trolls. If we were at 300 they'd say under 100 soon. They are a sad, sad group of people.
I'm not into conspiracies but i can't believe these people are real and doing this in their free time without getting paid.

[fonzie]

Only 10$ difference to China now!