Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

Thanks, very relevant.  It includes a lot I intentionally do not, and suggests some I didn't think of.  I'm focused on a peculiar sort of risk, the risk of a "bitcoin is dead" consensus.  After feedback I will try to collate and update the table.

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[MadGhost]

Seriously, at this point, what event could lead to a "bitcoin is dead" consensus again, say over the course of 1 year?
On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Relevant https://bitcoinfoundation.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf

quite detailed study , it will take me some time to understand it .Thanks for the link.

[elebit]

You are missing one of bitcoin's most realistic threats: Competition from something much better comes along, the other thing becomes popular and Bitcoin fades away like Myspace.

Those things takes time. It has taken five years for Bitcoin to be where it is now.

Even if something so insanely smart so it is to Bitcoin what Bitcoin was to whatever was before it (e-Gold?), you probably have five years of trading between Bitcoin and the new hotness before it could possibly be "dead" in any way.

And some people are going to be early adopters, trade in their Bitcoins the first few years (and any new cryptocurrency WILL be denominated in Bitcoin the first few years, that is completely and utterly irreversible) and make a fortune. And there will be discussions again how be new currency favors early adopters and is unfair. History will repeat itself in every way.

But before that there's going to be thousands upon thousands of scamcoins which do not improve state of the art in any way and will ultimately be worthless. If you do not realise the new hotness before anyone else and move with the average pack, you will still be able to trade your Bitcoins pretty much 1:1. Roughly.

This is the one future prediction I can and will make of which I believe to be absolutely certain.

[kireinaha]

This was supposed to be the big one. Our "Silk Road Event" from 2013... the cataylst to the new ATH. So many people have been claiming that these coins will sell for a premium and catapult the market upward. So if it doesn't happen, then I know who's full of shit and who's worth listening to  

Hell I'm a perma-bull, and even I don't think this.  Even if the coins are sold for a premium above market (whatever that means), and it leaks out to the public (never gonna happen), I wouldn't expect a huge rally or anything.  In fact, I'd place my bets on some really stupid fake FUD leak coming out on Monday saying that the coins sold for $200 a piece or some shit.  Prompting yet again another mass panic sell off for no reason at all.  Either that, or maybe next week comes and goes without anything major happening.

You see, bubbles are actually created (ie., fabricated) by whales who wait for the perfect market conditions to happen + advanced insider knowledge of some major announcements coming down the pipe.  Then they start slowly pre-seeding the market with mega dollars to begin the rally.  The bubble then feeds on itself, and is catapulted higher with mega media attention + the reveal of the major good news announcements near the middle.  This is all planned ahead of time, months in advance.  This happens in the stock market as well.

So I just don't see the next 2 weeks as that perfect storm.  Perhaps we are still 6-8 weeks away.  Or perhaps, not even until next year sometime.  I still see a slow steady rise in price regardless of what happens this year.

Edit: Oh you were being sarcastic.  Got it.

I was being a bit facetious, yes, but the gist of what I wrote was true. I notice a lot of people back peddling now, but there was a lot of talk from the usual cheerleaders claiming that today would be huge. Now it's more like, the coins will sell for approximately market value, and we may not even know for sure. Whereas a week ago, people were saying they'd sell for much higher than market value and other bullshit. Does anyone still believe this?

Anyone? ... anyone?

*chirp* *chirp*

[cech4204a]

I just had some trouble converting the 6 PM EDT time to my local time but I think I got it.
The auction ends in about 3 hours, am I right?
Can somebody confirm?

Yes, you are right, 3 more hours baby and than BTC price will be released from the effect of FUD people.

[Torque]

Whereas a week ago, people were saying they'd sell for much higher than market value and other bullshit. Does anyone still believe this?

Well, I can't even fathom what those silly people are wanting or expecting to hear.  Auction buyers who paid $800-1000/btc?  $5000/btc?  These types of HNW professional investors are going to hold on to these coins for a VERY long time, regardless if they paid over or under so-called "market" value.  So wtf does it really matter what they paid for them?

The Winklevoss Twins own 1000's of coins, and I believe paid ~$100-ish/btc.  They have yet to sell a single, SINGLE, coin yet.  And from what I hear, don't plan to any time soon.

So why would these auction buyers be any different than the Winklevii?

[kodtycoon]

I just had some trouble converting the 6 PM EDT time to my local time but I think I got it.
The auction ends in about 3 hours, am I right?
Can somebody confirm?

Yes, you are right, 3 more hours baby and than BTC price will be released from the effect of FUD people.

would it not be in buyers interest to say they paid more so come tax time they pay less tax? Wouldn't that be reason enough to let it slip out that you paid above market price even if you didn't?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bios Optimus]

http://www.rtcons.com/wall/bitstamp.16248.18.small.png?1=2
Explanation

Chart Buddy right on time

[macsga]

Here is some quality TA:
Before Auction:

AFTER AUCTION:

[kireinaha]

Whereas a week ago, people were saying they'd sell for much higher than market value and other bullshit. Does anyone still believe this?

Well, I can't even fathom what those silly people are wanting or expecting to hear.  Auction buyers who paid $800-1000/btc?  $5000/btc?  These types of HNW professional investors are going to hold on to these coins for a VERY long time, regardless if they paid over or under so-called "market" value.  So wtf does it really matter what they paid for them?

You really think they plan to hold them long term? If they were that interested, then why wouldn't they just buy them from the exchanges or directly from miners already? Why wait this long?

[MatTheCat]

BITCOINS FOR SALE!!!

1 BTC FOR JUST $590.01!!!

Any takers?

Anyone?

[Torque]

would it not be in buyers interest to say they paid more so come tax time they pay less tax? Wouldn't that be reason enough to let it slip out that you paid above market price even if you didn't?

You don't pay taxes on coins you haven't sold.

[cech4204a]

I just had some trouble converting the 6 PM EDT time to my local time but I think I got it.
The auction ends in about 3 hours, am I right?
Can somebody confirm?

Yes, you are right, 3 more hours baby and than BTC price will be released from the effect of FUD people.

would it not be in buyers interest to say they paid more so come tax time they pay less tax? Wouldn't that be reason enough to let it slip out that you paid above market price even if you didn't?

I'm not sure if you are spaming or you just missed your Quote ? Please check and report in my office.

[hmmmstrange]

Alex Waters bidding on bloomberg, joking 500, didn't want someone to bid 501. Said he was bidding low. Suspect he's bidding a lot higher.

[phosphorush]

so what's the word? price goign up rather than down? -_^

[kodtycoon]

would it not be in buyers interest to say they paid more so come tax time they pay less tax? Wouldn't that be reason enough to let it slip out that you paid above market price even if you didn't?

You don't pay taxes on coins you haven't sold.

but they will sell eventually and then they will have to put down a price for what they bought at right?

[TERA]

so what's the word? price goign up rather than down? -_^

It's going up, as predicted by Train Analysis.

[Torque]

would it not be in buyers interest to say they paid more so come tax time they pay less tax? Wouldn't that be reason enough to let it slip out that you paid above market price even if you didn't?

You don't pay taxes on coins you haven't sold.

but they will sell eventually and then they will have to put down a price for what they bought at right?

Yeah sure, when they sell a few in 2018.  Or maybe never.

[windjc]

This was supposed to be the big one. Our "Silk Road Event" from 2013... the cataylst to the new ATH. So many people have been claiming that these coins will sell for a premium and catapult the market upward. So if it doesn't happen, then I know who's full of shit and who's worth listening to  

Hell I'm a perma-bull, and even I don't think this.  Even if the coins are sold for a premium above market (whatever that means), and it leaks out to the public (never gonna happen), I wouldn't expect a huge rally or anything.  In fact, I'd place my bets on some really stupid fake FUD leak coming out on Monday saying that the coins sold for $200 a piece or some shit.  Prompting yet again another mass panic sell off for no reason at all.  Either that, or maybe next week comes and goes without anything major happening.

You see, bubbles are actually created (ie., fabricated) by whales who wait for the perfect market conditions to happen + advanced insider knowledge of some major announcements coming down the pipe.  Then they start slowly pre-seeding the market with mega dollars to begin the rally.  The bubble then feeds on itself, and is catapulted higher with mega media attention + the reveal of the major good news announcements near the middle.  This is all planned ahead of time, months in advance.  This happens in the stock market as well.

So I just don't see the next 2 weeks as that perfect storm.  Perhaps we are still 6-8 weeks away.  Or perhaps, not even until next year sometime.  I still see a slow steady rise in price regardless of what happens this year.

Edit: Oh you were being sarcastic.  Got it.

I was being a bit facetious, yes, but the gist of what I wrote was true. I notice a lot of people back peddling now, but there was a lot of talk from the usual cheerleaders claiming that today would be huge. Now it's more like, the coins will sell for approximately market value, and we may not even know for sure. Whereas a week ago, people were saying they'd sell for much higher than market value and other bullshit. Does anyone still believe this?

Anyone? ... anyone?

*chirp* *chirp*

Show these quotes where people said "much higher." You're full of sh*t. I and others said "above."  You've been crowing about how theyd sell below. I said next 5-7 days we are going and prepare yourself. We dont even know what they sold for yet. But the market already started going back up.

Get over yourself. Go sell your coins and go home.