Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

very very few investors - even professional ones - are capable of behaving like Warren Buffett, and buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. Most move with the herd and with conventional wisdom.

I undertsand that WB did not make his fortune just by buying high and selling low (!): he bought a failing company and managed it for many years until it got profitable again.

[MatTheCat]

I am hoping for a drop. I imagine that the price will soar within the year, but there is too much downside risk to jump in heavier around $580. Notably, I worry about Wall Street market manipulators intentionally tanking the market because they have derivative contracts referenced to Bitcoin. For example, in the lead up to the mortgage bubble, Goldman Sachs took out naked credit default swaps via AIG banking on a market collapse that they were responsible for. Notably, the payout of the naked credit default swaps was 10x the underlying dimunition of value in the mortgage market. This occurred because with this type of derivative, one needn't actually own the referenced security, commodity, currency, etc. that they are referencing the "insurance policy" to in order to receive a full payout. Moreover, they can contract for protection that is 100x the value of the underlying asset/currency/security/etc. Since these are unregulated contractual agreements there are no clearinghouses and nobody knows what negative positions people are taking. Resultantly, I think the intrinsic value of this innovation is multiple times its current value and, yet, it is way too easy to manipulate for me to want to get in at this price.

A couple other thoughts

(1) This is why a post-auction dump isn't unfathomable (albeit extremely, extremely unlikely)... an institutional player could use the acquired BTCs as a weapon to tank the market short-term in order to collect on a derivatives contract several orders of magnitude greater than their holdings;

(2) I think the argument for auctioneers buying at a premium is mildly flawed because, although they can buy without impacting the market, they cannot extract liquidity on that many BTCs without dropping the market unless they slow played it and in that case they'd still be holding a lot of risk. They probably will be expecting a jump in prices if they get in, but they'll still run into a similar problem if they look to unload down the line -- they'd have to be a true believer AND somewhat risk blind... they cannot actually utilize that many BTCs unless acceptance goes through the roof OR a major external economic event (Chinese mainland wealth migration). In short, I say it is mildly flawed because I think the reason for expecting a premium is spot-on, but I think it is outweighed by this second factor... I'd expect the auctioneers to buy at a 10% discount.

Full disclosure -- I own a very small holding of BTC (10), that I got at just over $400 a pop. I am holding for the long-term, but hoping for a short-term dump for another entry point. I am very biased in this regard. I missed the boat a while back on the best entry points so take what I say with a grain of salt. I am just curious what others think. I am short-term a mixture of anxious and giddy and long-term hopeful.

^^The only post worth reading in over 5 pages of utter fucking drivel.

Somehow I doubt that you will be suited to posting on this forum. Don't you have any Jpegs of trains or rockets that you could post?

[blatchcorn]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

I told you so.

I wonder how much money the bears just lost falling for this obvious bear trap

[dreamspark]

I think it stands to reason that the price of at least some of the lots will be known even if there isnt an official announcement. Im sure someone who buys a lot will either already be in the bitcoin community or at least willing to speak to some sort of media.

without official announcement he can always brag and troll in front of the community and cameras of getting super-cheap coins for only 666.

but paying 200 $ instead.

I know I would do that.

Yeah course, but its not like anyone would just take someones word for it without at least some proof. I dont care either way, who does? Its just interesting to know and I reckon something will filter through.

[fonzie]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

I wonder how much money the bears just lost falling for this obvious bear trap

Price drops 150$ from 680$, with almost clear announcment before for everyone, and stays @ 560 for a few days. Bears lose money! Welcome to Blatchcorns world!

 

[JimboToronto]

he bought a failing company and managed it for many years until it got profitable again.

That's actual investing, where you have control over the outcome, as opposed to speculating, where you're gambling on other peoples' success or failure.

[dreamspark]

I think it stands to reason that the price of at least some of the lots will be known even if there isnt an official announcement. Im sure someone who buys a lot will either already be in the bitcoin community or at least willing to speak to some sort of media.

Supposition and ass talk

Thats like your opinion... This is a supposition / speculation forum so theres nothing wrong with you know suppositioning or speculating.

[tarmi]

I think it stands to reason that the price of at least some of the lots will be known even if there isnt an official announcement. Im sure someone who buys a lot will either already be in the bitcoin community or at least willing to speak to some sort of media.

without official announcement he can always brag and troll in front of the community and cameras of getting super-cheap coins for only 666.

but paying 200 $ instead.

I know I would do that.

Yeah course, but its not like anyone would just take someones word for it without at least some proof. I dont care either way, who does? Its just interesting to know and I reckon something will filter through.

why not? if they believe trolls on bitcointalk, they will suck everything one troll gives them in front of the cameras.

[Timmmaahh]

600 we are coming

[Asrael999]

very very few investors - even professional ones - are capable of behaving like Warren Buffett, and buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. Most move with the herd and with conventional wisdom.

I undertsand that WB did not make his fortune just by buying high and selling low (!): he bought a failing company and managed it for many years until it got profitable again.

Completely agreed, but then Mr Buffett is a rarity amongst investors of any stripe - and he also gets it wrong from time to time. The point I was making regarding WB as opposed to the vast majority of investors is that he looks to buy while assets are being sold by the majority, and to sell into Strength. The fast majority of investors including the so called professional street look to ride trends - thus the phrase "The Trend is your Friend" - this means buying assets that others are buying and selling assets that others are selling.

A lesson all the banks should have learnt - and we should all take to heart - Sell When You Can, NOT When You Have To.

[edwardspitz]

The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

I told you so.

I wonder how much money the bears just lost falling for this obvious bear trap

I sold you so :-)  Also this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jfq3c4Cf1Fs&list=RDYnOcycgXpms#t=205

Maybe it is a bit early to get excited but as far as I can tell we have broke through the upper line in the channel we were in when we passed $585.

[JorgeStolfi]

Why is the price going up? Mark Karpelès spoke out, the price used to drop like a stone in water whenever he did that. 

WSJ: Mt. Gox Head Believes No More Bitcoin Will Be Found
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=667609.0

WSJ: Q&A With Mt. Gox’s Karpelès: What Went Wrong?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=667812.0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

good morning bitcoin!

[ShroomsKit]

This place has gone completely insane.
Everyone is completely obsessed with what price the coins went for as if it's the most important thing ever in the history if Bitcoin yet NOT ONE person here has been able to answer this:

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

You idiots can't even tell what above or under the market is yet it's the only thing you talk about.
As i said before this place is at the same level as the Btce trollbox. Just as dumb.

Oh and in the meantime all you panic sellers probably sold more than there are coins in the auction out of fear of that same auction.
That alone is one of the most retarded things ever. If someone needed more proof how dumb Bitcoin traders are, there you go.

[aminorex]

THIS FORUM HAS GONE INSANE INANE

Ftfy

[magicmexican]

God bless Mark, pumping bitcoin from the shadows.

[dreamspark]

Yeah course, but its not like anyone would just take someones word for it without at least some proof. I dont care either way, who does? Its just interesting to know and I reckon something will filter through.

why not? if they believe trolls on bitcointalk, they will suck everything one troll gives them in front of the cameras.

Okay Ill rephrase it for you, Its not like I would just take someones word for it without some real proof. Like I said above I really don't care but its interesting to see what the price would be, especially as its a one shot kinda auction where you cant keep raising your bids.

[YogoH]

I hope the coins go for exactly bitstamp price.  Would be fun to see what unfolds

[Timmmaahh]

This place has gone completely insane.
Everyone is completely obsessed with what price the coins went for as if it's the most important thing ever in the history if Bitcoin yet NOT ONE person here has been able to answer this:

Also i wonder you mention below or above market price. Is that the price the minute the auction closes?The price it was when the bids had to be in? The price on Stamp or somewhere else? Who decides what the market price actually is?

Could it be that noone really has a clue?

You idiots can't even tell what above or under the market is yet it's the only thing you talk about.
As i said before this place is at the same level as the Btce trollbox. Just as dumb.

Oh and in the meantime all you panic sellers probably sold more than there are coins in the auction out of fear of that same auction.
That alone is one of the most retarded things ever. If someone needed more prove how dumb Bitcoin traders are, there you go.

calm down buddy, does it really matter when which who or where? =D

what count is that it will be above market price no matter how you want to define the price =D