Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nrd525]

I've been watching the Bitfinex swaps for a while - and now everyone is finally catching on!

One pet theory - that the amount of swaps is heavily influenced by the flash rate of return.  So there is a lag between BTC going up and the swaps increasing.  In fact the amount of swaps will peak at or even after the peak in the market price.  This can lead to a massive over-supply and plummeting flash return rate (made worse by the fact that the rate takes time to fall, so it cannot adjust to the new market lack of demand).

Another theory - the amount of available swaps (not the same as swaps in use - but correlated) will increase at 5-20%/week so long as the flash return rate is above 0.15%.  Ex. we're up around 6% over June 19 (which is slightly less growth than I expected given the very health flash return rate- we might be hitting the limits of how much money investors are willing to put into BFX).  I think if we sustained a flash return rate of over 0.20% for two weeks, we'd see 12-20%/week growth in swaps.

As the swaps are able to grow rapidly (and faster than the BTC price), BFX swaps will become increasingly important in supporting the BTC price.

[1715356278]

1715356278

[fonzie]

interest just doubled

[gizmoh]

interest just doubled

Tomorrow might be a risky day for lenders!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

Funny after all this reading until I read the Bitstamp piece by Forbes. I didn't know when the coin auction was going to take place lol.

I kind of agree with the idea of a bulltrap, psychopaths aren't the ones feeling pressures its uninformed investors. Logically speaking fearing a below market rate sales at the auction is sound, until we remember these are bitcoins. Not cars, houses and jewelery reprocessed from crime lords.

I find it odd that they want to sell them, I think it is more or less them being stuck in the belief that Bitcoin can't destroy the glass house that is Fiat currencies.  

What would a million U.S dollars fetch at a U.S Marshall auction, silly question would they even sell gold bouillon if it was reprocessed or just hold on to it? The only reason I think BMR is achievable is the sheer size of coins being sold.

[windjc]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

[kireinaha]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

[tarmi]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

what kinetic energy?

the volume is going down. I expect dumps soon.

[windjc]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

Yes, I think this is possible for sure. Certainly by the end of the day tomorrow.

There are now only 1000 BTC on Bitfinex to get to $600. People have been scratching their heads about why the price hasn't gone up despite the increase in swaps taken out.

Well, you are all about to find out.

[windjc]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

what kinetic energy?

the volume is going down. I expect dumps soon.

Selling stopped yesterday. The longs are waiting for the first major move upward, then all hell is going to break out upwards.

[Miz4r]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

what kinetic energy?

the volume is going down. I expect dumps soon.

Maybe you want to rewind to May the 20th and see how similar the situation looked back then. No volume for days on end and then suddenly bam volume shot up and price went from 445 to 680 in 12 days. Now this doesn't guarantee the same will happen again but it is surely not unlikely.

[windjc]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

what kinetic energy?

the volume is going down. I expect dumps soon.

Maybe you want to rewind to May the 20th and see how similar the situation looked back then. No volume for days on end and then suddenly bam volume shot up and price went from 445 to 680 in 12 days. Now this doesn't guarantee the same will happen again but it is surely not unlikely.

Yep. Even Fonzie is bullish right now.

[Tyson95]

US govt gonna do a 10k market buy at midnight tonight.

[windjc]

One of the best day traders on TradingView has this to say:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/i6Bft9Je/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Miz4r]

what kinetic energy?

the volume is going down. I expect dumps soon.

Maybe you want to rewind to May the 20th and see how similar the situation looked back then. No volume for days on end and then suddenly bam volume shot up and price went from 445 to 680 in 12 days. Now this doesn't guarantee the same will happen again but it is surely not unlikely.

Yep. Even Fonzie is bullish right now.

I don't think that Fonzie being bullish is that good of a sign really, I feel much more comfortable holding coins when he is short.

[N12]

One of the best day traders on TradingView has this to say:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/i6Bft9Je/

He is also on r/bitcoinmarkets: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/293vsm/this_could_not_get_any_bullish_right_here/

[empowering]

It is just a shot away.

[tarmi]

The coil is wrapping tighter. Get ready for the upward spring ladies and gents.

What kind of time frame are you looking at for the release of this kinetic energy buildup? $600 by tomorrow morning?

what kinetic energy?

the volume is going down. I expect dumps soon.

Maybe you want to rewind to May the 20th and see how similar the situation looked back then. No volume for days on end and then suddenly bam volume shot up and price went from 445 to 680 in 12 days. Now this doesn't guarantee the same will happen again but it is surely not unlikely.

Yep. Even Fonzie is bullish right now.

 

[Miz4r]

One of the best day traders on TradingView has this to say:


https://www.tradingview.com/v/i6Bft9Je/

Isn't that the same guy who went leveraged long at $660 and is still holding on to it? Not that I don't agree with that chart but he really had an off-day then if he is supposed to be the best day trader there lol.